Back to basics WW again

[PippyPony]

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Jil post analysis incoming!


With both Jil and raf talking about converts not being a thing in a basics game, I'm thinking maybe they are a thing.


Some color coding of her earliest reads. The more important note here is that she also voted ski day 1 in the whole ski/cdo situation, and continued to push for ski on subsequent days. I would have thought it was bussing but it was continued even after they lost one wolf and knew they were likely to lose two more fairly soon. So Ski is solidly village for me.


This post caught my eye because despite the fact that it doesn't say it outright, it ends up agreeing with the idea that the wolves would have wanted cdo to go down in the d1 lynch. It's subtle shade thrown at the people who stayed on cdo, and with that in mind I'm thinking maybe the wolves did all jump ship to different options. Will have to look at that final tally again.


Village reads, obviously two of those are villagers. I'm pretty sure LIS is as well but figured I would quote it anyway.


This was D2, I think around the time that raf was starting to go down.

Village Reads
Trilt
nessy
LIS
Zen
STL
Doc-S
nyan

Neutral Reads
WZ
SAR
3m
kcough
Cyndia
finn
serher
Abs
Pippy - but on "watch" list

Wolf Reads
Ski
raf
ally
Coop
AM - but with sympathy
Snowy

If I'm remembering correctly, Jilary has been inclined to show some support for her fellow wolves in the past, as long as they weren't under too much scrutiny. I'm not sure though. Seeing nessy up on her village list here (with the note that she would "need to go back and read her posts") combined with the post quoted below just gives me more reason to vote for nessy today.


This was super late on the day of her lynch. Not sure how to interpret it yet because I could see it going either way with her knowing that she was about to go down as a wolf. It's telling that she didn't even really try for self preservation that day. So on the one hand I could be suspicious of others who were discussed, thinking that Jil didn't want to throw them under the bus with the wolves already in a tough spot. Or I could think they were village and she didn't want to clear them by pushing or voting for them when she was about to go down anyway.

Can I like this whole post more than once? I think this is some solid analysis.

On the converts/# of wolves front...I found a post by dy at the end of one of her basics games from a while back where she said she thought *6* wolves for about this many players was a decently balanced game (can try to locate reference later when I'm off my phone). So, converts or no converts, I think Jil may have been underestimating here a little to possibly occlude the # of baddies.

The AM references in those posts give me a lot of feels.

Honestly, I'm feeling pretty good about lynching any of the 3 who are on the docket so far, but will probably stick with Nessie for previously stated information-gather reasons.

(gl at the horse show IRL @awesomenessity! Still think you're wolfy though).

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[PippyPony]

FWIW, the wolves were given 2 conversions at the beginning of the game to use at their leisure.

Game design was a total of 6 wolves out of 27 players. i like to thimk it was a balanced game

Ok found the dyachei quotes - apologies for any formatting weirdness on mobile. Granted, this game was from a looong time ago (longer than I initially realized), but I still found it interesting.


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[dyachei]

Official Lynch Tally
Nessie 1 - pippy
Finn 1 - LIS
AM 2 - trilt, nessie

4/17 votes cast

 

[WildZoo]

Ok found the dyachei quotes - apologies for any formatting weirdness on mobile. Granted, this game was from a looong time ago (longer than I initially realized), but I still found it interesting.


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Oh that basics game. That was a long time ago! Little different from this and the other more recent basics game.

 

[WildZoo]

lynch nessy

Will try to check in later

 

[Cyndia]

I'm happy with all the current lynch candidates, they were all at varying degrees of suspicion for me. My gut says I want to vote for AM first, but I need to get home and reread on a computer to see if any of the more recent posts change my mind.

 

[KCgophervet]

Okay I could also go for AM (her posts D1-2 didn't really strike me as anything out of the ordinary, but maybe that in and of itself is sketchy) or nessy (pretty sure I posted previous suspicions about her, though again D1-2 nothing jumped out at me).

But based on my recent analyses I'm going to go with a

Lynch Finn

 

[LetItSnow]

Now if we did happen to have a night vig with shots still to take ..... taking whichever of Finn or AM isn't lynched would be a stellar move right about now.

 

[Animal Midwife]

I'm going to

Lynch nessy

 

[WildZoo]

Guess I should comment on Finn and AM - I've seen both of them play the way they are now no matter what role they're in so they're pretty blank in my spreadsheet. Went with nessy because I have actual feels there, but not upset at either of the other options.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

I figured I would quote Zen's post about wolf reads so we could see them back to back with Jil's (in WZ's post)



So she said...

village: DVMD
neutral: Jil
wolf: serher, finn, nessy

She also commented on Coopah, DrS, and Abs but she kind of just brushed off suspicions about them and didn't seem concerned. Could potentially be a soft vouch hidden in there

It makes me want to look harder at the people she was more wishy-washy about. We know Dr. S was village at least. Do we see Zen calling out a wolf so blantantly? She tried to lead away from Jillary...

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

Sorry guys ended up being a super busy weekend for me and I should probably be writing my paper, but I'm going to procrastinate and WW right now. 😛

Hush @SkiOtter.

Weird kills again.

I didn't vote because Jilary was 95+% wolf and I didn't want to hit plurality. Note how she pushed it even half an hour early and scrambled to post.

What ski quote are you referring to? The one where she was saying she wanted to talk more about AM? Just curious, the quote seemed out of place.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

Jil post analysis incoming!


With both Jil and raf talking about converts not being a thing in a basics game, I'm thinking maybe they are a thing.


Some color coding of her earliest reads. The more important note here is that she also voted ski day 1 in the whole ski/cdo situation, and continued to push for ski on subsequent days. I would have thought it was bussing but it was continued even after they lost one wolf and knew they were likely to lose two more fairly soon. So Ski is solidly village for me.


This post caught my eye because despite the fact that it doesn't say it outright, it ends up agreeing with the idea that the wolves would have wanted cdo to go down in the d1 lynch. It's subtle shade thrown at the people who stayed on cdo, and with that in mind I'm thinking maybe the wolves did all jump ship to different options. Will have to look at that final tally again.


Village reads, obviously two of those are villagers. I'm pretty sure LIS is as well but figured I would quote it anyway.


This was D2, I think around the time that raf was starting to go down.

Village Reads
Trilt
nessy
LIS
Zen
STL
Doc-S
nyan

Neutral Reads
WZ
SAR
3m
kcough
Cyndia
finn
serher
Abs
Pippy - but on "watch" list

Wolf Reads
Ski
raf
ally
Coop
AM - but with sympathy
Snowy

If I'm remembering correctly, Jilary has been inclined to show some support for her fellow wolves in the past, as long as they weren't under too much scrutiny. I'm not sure though. Seeing nessy up on her village list here (with the note that she would "need to go back and read her posts") combined with the post quoted below just gives me more reason to vote for nessy today.


This was super late on the day of her lynch. Not sure how to interpret it yet because I could see it going either way with her knowing that she was about to go down as a wolf. It's telling that she didn't even really try for self preservation that day. So on the one hand I could be suspicious of others who were discussed, thinking that Jil didn't want to throw them under the bus with the wolves already in a tough spot. Or I could think they were village and she didn't want to clear them by pushing or voting for them when she was about to go down anyway.

I figured I would quote Zen's post about wolf reads so we could see them back to back with Jil's (in WZ's post)



So she said...

village: DVMD
neutral: Jil
wolf: serher, finn, nessy

She also commented on Coopah, DrS, and Abs but she kind of just brushed off suspicions about them and didn't seem concerned. Could potentially be a soft vouch hidden in there

So one wolf had nessy reading solidly villager and the other had her as wolf-y...

 

[dyachei]

Official Lynch Tally
Nessie 3 - pippy, WZ, AM
Finn 2 - LIS, kcough
AM 2 - trilt, nessie

7/17 votes cast

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

Yeah. I'm trying to think what I would have done. In the end, I would have taken out Jilary because then it frees up a future lynch to break some OTHER egg.

On the other hand, I can see someone saying "Jil is going to get lynched anyway, so I'll take out someone else and see if I can find a currently less-suspected wolf." I don't like that thinking, but I can see someone playing it that way.

I also think both DrS and SAR would be really weird targets for a village vigilante because most people had them as village. I would hope they would try to take someone out who seemed more suspicious.

According to Mafia universe sometime the mafia have a vigilante:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/database/mafia-roles/role/?mafiarole=Vigilante

The common roles according to mafia universe: Alignment cop, cop, doctor, godfather, jailkeeper, mafia goon, mason, miller, roleblocker, serial killer, tracker, vanilla townie, vigilante, werewolf, watcher.

The other roles are listed as occasional or rare. So I think the two kills were probably due to a night vig, but which side is the question?

 

[mmmdreamerz]

I also think both DrS and SAR would be really weird targets for a village vigilante because most people had them as village. I would hope they would try to take someone out who seemed more suspicious.

According to Mafia universe sometime the mafia have a vigilante:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/database/mafia-roles/role/?mafiarole=Vigilante

The common roles according to mafia universe: Alignment cop, cop, doctor, godfather, jailkeeper, mafia goon, mason, miller, roleblocker, serial killer, tracker, vanilla townie, vigilante, werewolf, watcher.

The other roles are listed as occasional or rare. So I think the two kills were probably due to a night vig, but which side is the question?

I feel like those are bad/weird targets not matter what side you are on...

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

Found this interesting. I WZ leaning village, but I know she likes being a wolf so I would guess her play would look more village-y compared to other wolves as well as I think she voted for a wolf every day so far which would give her village cred. Not saying she's a wolf, just a thought on some of her posts.

It doesn't seem like an odd post at all coming from Zen.
And doesn't necessarily need to be well-researched if you have some prior background with games on other forums. Day 0 (though I would actually think of it as night 0) peeks aren't uncommon other places, they just pretty much never happen here.

I don't think the theory itself says anything either way for her.

Could be a soft vouch for Zen, but then again could just be a fact that Zen likes to make complicated theories out of things. I know I'm prone to do that, so I wouldn't be surprise if this is just a statement.

So here's where I'm at:

Village reads on Trilt (sorry trilt), LIS, Dr. S, Otter, and Snow. Slight village for...probably too many people. I can never read Finn or DVMD so I'll leave that to others for now. Tiny suspicions for pippy, 3m, and confusing. Zen and coopah are my top suspects. I've already stated my feelings on Jil and Abs, but I'm not going to push too hard for them not to be lynched.

I've still got more reading to do but I'm getting tired and so my mind is wandering.

Zen top suspect, but she's already been pretty sketchy that day. Not pushing to hard for Jil (does confuse me because she voted Jil D1, D2, D4)

Side eyeing all of you immediately jumping on Jil when we've talked many times about how valuable discussion is.

I guess I didn't find this too suspicious to be side-eyeing everyone who jumped on Jil right away. There was like 7 people who voted right away. Most newer players who probably didn't think about discussion. I feel especially since it was obvious Jil was going down, a wolf would want discussion to try and find one of our village PR, but discussion is good for villagers too, so could just be that.

It would be nice if we could confirm that kc and Dr. S were blocked. I feel good about Dr. S, not sure about kc. Harder to coordinate deceptions that require group participation on the thread when you can't PM during the day though, so not going to dwell on the fancy play possibilities too much right now.

Seems like trying to get kc to reveal if she has a role. And maybe Dr. S (I forget if she was dead or not at this point)

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

I feel like those are bad/weird targets not matter what side you are on...

Yeah but wolf-wise might have thought one of them had a role. Or wanted some people to through us off target by analyzing their voting history/what categories Jil, Zen, and Raf had them in..

 

[mmmdreamerz]

Yeah but wolf-wise might have thought one of them had a role. Or wanted some people to through us off target by analyzing their voting history/what categories Jil, Zen, and Raf had them in..

True. It could prob make sense since village had the day vig that wolves would get a night vig?

 

[allyphoe]

I feel like those are bad/weird targets not matter what side you are on...

Wolves want to eliminate (or convert) people who are more obviously village, because those people aren't going to get lynched. It benefits wolves to have as many sketchy people as possible, so there are many potential lynch targets, both so villagers might eliminate their own and so wolves can have a plausible list of suspects.

 

[WildZoo]

Seems like trying to get kc to reveal if she has a role. And maybe Dr. S (I forget if she was dead or not at this point)

I knew I should have reworded that. I mean that I wished there was a way to confirm it, not that I wanted them to do so (it wouldn't mean anything to me if they did anyway, since I was talking about the possibility of one of them being a wolf and the block being a lie).

 

[WildZoo]

Zen top suspect, but she's already been pretty sketchy that day. Not pushing to hard for Jil (does confuse me because she voted Jil D1, D2, D4)

If you look back you can see that on D3 I stated that Jil's weird theory struck me as something a confused villager would come up with (because I've done the same thing). Once Zen came up wolf I was back on the Jil train, mostly due to what trilt said about Zen's theory, plus that egg needed to be cracked anyway. I'm not going to say I was 100% sure she was a wolf, but there was a lot pointing that way.

I guess I didn't find this too suspicious to be side-eyeing everyone who jumped on Jil right away. There was like 7 people who voted right away. Most newer players who probably didn't think about discussion. I feel especially since it was obvious Jil was going down, a wolf would want discussion to try and find one of our village PR, but discussion is good for villagers too, so could just be that.

Or wolves would want to jump on that lynch asap, to keep her from accidentally spewing anything, and to protect any of the other wolves from the possibility of being scrutinized. They knew she was going down, the players that everyone was reading village had basically said they would be voting for her the next day, especially of Zen was a wolf.

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

Okay my reads right now:

Ski - Where is she? She hasn't posted at all in this day cycle. I still feel weird about her and I feel like she's not posting a lot this game. But I'm leaning towards her being village and the wolves using her and cdo argument the first day as a distraction because they are both village. Also there was one interaction with raf that made me feel as they both wouldn't be wolves (ski accusing raf, raf responding defensively etc).

WZ - idk. Post analysis is good, but see my earlier post on her sketchiness.

Nessy - She's posting more. It feels like she's trying to analyze posts/people. I am not quite feeling her wolfiness, but she is sketchy enough that she is leaning wolf. Especially since everyone else feels that way and last game I almost put her in village when she was a wolf.

Kc - Her day analysis was really helpful, but I feel like she has some posts that I'm not sure about. Not quite sure where to put her, but probably village

Coopah - actually re-looking at her posts, she has of fluff. What were the reasons people thought she was cleared? Was it Zen thinking she was a wolf?

Cyndia - Not sure how to read her. Not a lot of posts, but I guess that's normal. She is suspicious of AM, so will probably get back to her after we see what AM is.

Finn - I think she's sketchy, but Trilt said she didn't think she was a wolf D2 or D3 (do you still think this trilt?). I'm running out of time and have to get back to writing my paper so I'll look at her posts tomorrow.

Confusing - I will also come back to her posts. She is neutral on my spreadsheet.

Everyone else is on my village list for one reason or another.

Well except AM. Her posts do not have enough analysis so she is my top suspect.

Lynch AM

 

[SnowshoeDog143]

Oh just wanted to comment about one thing on @kcoughli Day analysis posts. I agree with her that Pippy had some weird responses, but she was also the one to bring up Zen not posting much content if I remember correctly which put her pretty strong village in my spreadsheet.

 

[SkiOtter]

Abs- has posted a fair amount but a lot of it is more fluffy stuff, but has posted her suspicions. People say that the jokey posts are just her style

 

[SkiOtter]

Finnick- hasn’t posted too much about her suspicions this game and hasn’t posted a ton to begin with. People say that not posting a ton is just her style though.

 

[SkiOtter]

Nessie- not a ton of content in her posts, more fluff posts than content posts. Posting a fair amount so she can’t be accused of not being present on the thread. Her and Jil did have similar suspicions lists, but I’m not as convinced that that’s weird, though I’m not totally convinced it’s completely coincidence.

 

[SkiOtter]

AM- hasn’t really defended herself. Basically just said, “I’m bad at defending, ask me questions and I’ll answer them.” Not much content in posts even though she said she was going to put more in there. Has only said about one sentence worth of reasoning behind being suspicious of people. Was basing most things the past few day cycles on just “feelings.” Didn’t give much reasoning for voting Nessie besides that she jumped off Jil when it was pointed out that they had similar suspicions lists.

With that being said, I probably will go AM today.

 

[SkiOtter]

Question about the whole 1 kill vs 2 kill thing- could the one night kill be some wolf using their ability the second be the regular wolf kill and that it was only one night kill because conversions occurred? I know some people were thinking conversions might actually be in play in this game since both Jil and Raf were saying at the beginning that they didn’t think conversions would be in this game. I don’t know if that could possibly explain the 1 vs 2 night kills, but it’s just an idea I had.

 

[awesomenessity]

(gl at the horse show IRL @awesomenessity! Still think you're wolfy though).

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Stars for non game related talk lol

*****
Haha thanks! We actually just finished, horsey was a very good lad. He's had a nasty habit of bucking/rearing/spinning when he decides he doesn't like a jump but he didn't do it at all today so some progress has been made!
****


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[Trilt]

I feel like those are bad/weird targets not matter what side you are on...

I think they're reasonable targets if the wolves were hunting for PRs, not necessarily killing those under least suspicion. Both were playing somewhat the way I do as a wolf or village PR... much quieter, not too much attention, try not to get yourself up for lynch (and have to reveal for defence) or draw enough attention that you end up night killed.

 

[awesomenessity]

If it will help me not get lynched, I'll answer whatever questions you guys have, similar to AM. Since my attempts at defence haven't been super well received haha. To answer the obvious question, no I am not a wolf 😛


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[Trilt]

I'm kind of being lured toward the nessie lynch on peoples' justifications, but I still think if AM flipped wolf it would give us much more info (because she had early lynch votes for both finn and nessie).

 

[Trilt]

Finn - I think she's sketchy, but Trilt said she didn't think she was a wolf D2 or D3 (do you still think this trilt?). I'm running out of time and have to get back to writing my paper so I'll look at her posts tomorrow.

I still have a question mark next to her. Of the nessie-her-AM I have the least suspicions for her mostly because of her adamacy about being opinionless... could be wolfy, sure, but doesn't feel out of line for her play. In any case my reads are just reads, make your own damn opinions. 😛

 

[Trilt]

Will be back shortly before lynch close. People need to vote.

 

[KCgophervet]

Yeah I can't make myself go back and re-analyze Day 3 and 4 and about to head out for my Valentine's Day date. I'll admit I definitely skimmed a lot of posts and clearly missed some good stuff that others (WZ & Snowy) have caught which is good. The more we chat and discuss the closer we'll be to figuring it out. Honestly I'm okay with all of our candidates today, but Finn definitely gave me the most feels on reread.

 

[allyphoe]

I'm good with any of AM / nessie / finn.

My brain is the clear loser in the current fight for which end of my GI tract will be the winner, so I'm going to take the path of least resistance and follow Trilt.

***** Lynch AM *******

 

[finnickthedog]

I could go either way here.

AM still feels very sketchy to me but she always does so I'm inclined to second guess suspicions I have where she's concerned. I don't really have good reasons for thinking she's a wolf, it's just the vibe I get from her posting.

Nessy I'm just back and forth on. Right now, I'm looking at the fact that she and Jil had similar suspicion lists and one point and the fact that she waffled off of Jil after that was pointed out. Can't decide if that makes her seem more wolf or more villager because I could argue it either way. I'm also thinking about the fact that Zen had her as a wolf read and can't decide what I think about that either.

lynch AM

Seems like a better option right now.

 

[Abnerrs]

Honestly nothing has really changed my feelings towards (I will call her appropriately) Nessie.

********lynch Nessie*****

I'm at pike place market so I may not make it back on before lynch closes but I'll try.

 

[Cyndia]

Okay I reread and I'm still leaning towards voting for AM out of those three - her defense has been pretty lackluster, her top suspicions post just wasn't very detailed/didn't seem like she put a ton of thought into it, and her previous posts have also definitely been lacking in analysis. But either way, I'm happy enough with all of these lynch candidates.

So ********lynch AM*********

 

[Coopah]

I'm feeling more AM right now, super busy will try to check in before lynch close

Lynch AM

 

[Animal Midwife]

I'm a vanillager guys!

 

[HowConfusing]

Torn between Nessie and AM. Not sure I trust some of the players voting for Nessie though.

Lynch AM

Getting my vote in now since we're about to see Lego Batman.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

I'm going back and forth between AM and Nessie...AM kinda just seems like she has in the other games...she's very hard to read...

Lynch nessie

 

[awesomenessity]

I'm a vanillager guys!

I too am a vanillager but I find this to be a very weak defense

 

[Animal Midwife]

I too am a vanillager but I find this to be a very weak defense

I know it is. I can see this is going down like every single other of my lynches. I thought allowing people to interview me would change things, but I guess it's still a faulty defense technique.

 

[Skimble]

*****************************
UN - Official I should be studying Lynch Tally
Nessie 5 - pippy, WZ, AM, Abs, 3m
Finn 2 - LIS, kcough
AM 8 - trilt, Nessie, snow, ally, Finn, cyndia, coop, confusing

15/17 votes cast
**************************

 

[Trilt]

I know it is. I can see this is going down like every single other of my lynches. I thought allowing people to interview me would change things, but I guess it's still a faulty defense technique.

Work on your play at the beginning. Actually accuse and analyze, don't just give lip service to the idea and then follow other peoples' thoughts.

I'm not convinced by my lynch of you (and I'm frankly a little annoyed and suspicious of the people who are justifying their vote for you on my opinion) but at the same time, I have very little in defense of you and if you are a wolf it'll pay great dividends. So hence my lynch.

 

[deleted806434]

(sorry for jumping in here so late today)

Man I am conflicted about this one. I've been back and forth between AM and nessy all day. Although finn is still on my list of suspicions, I feel a little more strongly about these two.

I was planning on voting AM yesterday, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that her play really doesn't feel that much different than the noob circus game. I lynched her incorrectly in that one for the same reason.

On the other hand, I feel like I actually have some justifiable concerns about nessy. The fact that Jil and Zen labeled her in polar opposite categories (as mmm pointed out) did feel a little weird to me. In my opinion it would be a little more difficult to decipher their reads lists if they label a fellow wolf completely differently. I also feel like the whole exchange that occurred with nessy unlynching Jil due to their similar reads (and nessy's justification of it today) was quite sketchy.

Even if these concerns are misguided, I still feel a little better voting for her over AM at this point.

lynch Nessy

 

[Animal Midwife]

Work on your play at the beginning. Actually accuse and analyze, don't just give lip service to the idea and then follow other peoples' thoughts.

I'm not convinced by my lynch of you (and I'm frankly a little annoyed and suspicious of the people who are justifying their vote for you on my opinion) but at the same time, I have very little in defense of you and if you are a wolf it'll pay great dividends. So hence my lynch.

I'm always afraid of being wolf-killed if I become too bold, but I see it's obviously not helping the village if I keep my mouth shut.