Back to basics WW again

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SnowshoeDog143 said:
If we are to assume 5 wolves, I think the last one we would be looking for a godfather role which comes up village with seer investigation and may or may not be immune to other types of investigation (tracker/watcher/etc) so just be aware of that if you have a power role or are reviewing trilt's posts. The other option the wolves could have an role seer, but I would have guessed they would have seered trilt earlier on because she came up village on so many peoples lists.
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So, this is honest to god just a newbie follow up question* to your statement: is there any kind of typical framework for wolf roles/abilities? Like is there usually a "godfather" role? Or is it all just up to the individual mod who's designing the game? I looked on the wiki sites, but there wasn't much about role modifiers & overall configuration.

*(I know people got sketched by me asking similar questions earlier, so really -- if this is not a good question to ask, then just ignore me! As a new player I'm just kind of curious from a learning perspective).

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And I guess what else I'm wondering is if there's anything beyond those roles (wolf seer, strongman, wolf blocker, wolf assassin, unseerable, etc) that shows up on a regular basis. Like is there a wolf protector? A wolf who can only convert?

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And to post some actual thoughts about this game, so I'm not just asking about hypotheticals...

Re: the nessie/ally debate that's going on right now: AM's wolfiness really threw me for a loop on that front, so I feel like I need to go back and re-evaluate both of them before making moves in either direction. I'd also like to take another look at LIS, WZ, and KC since trilt had mentioned them at various points.




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finnickthedog said:
This is not necessarily true. Probably would be good if someone looked back at the last basics game to see if kills/conversions could happen the same night. I would but I'm just on a lunch break.

I'm inclined to think they can kill/convert the same night because with 4 wolves down it seems like a bad move to be sitting on a conversion opportunity. So I would expect them to have used it by now.
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Tbh I was a little shocked that they didn't go for Trilt as a conversion, since she basically had "VILLAGE" tattooed on her face.

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PippyPony said:
So, this is honest to god just a newbie follow up question* to your statement: is there any kind of typical framework for wolf roles/abilities? Like is there usually a "godfather" role? Or is it all just up to the individual mod who's designing the game? I looked on the wiki sites, but there wasn't much about role modifiers & overall configuration.

*(I know people got sketched by me asking similar questions earlier, so really -- if this is not a good question to ask, then just ignore me! As a new player I'm just kind of curious from a learning perspective).

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
Click to expand...

SnowshoeDog143 said:
The common roles according to mafia universe: Alignment cop, cop, doctor, godfather, jailkeeper, mafia goon, mason, miller, roleblocker, serial killer, tracker, vanilla townie, vigilante, werewolf, watcher.

The other roles are listed as occasional or rare. So I think the two kills were probably due to a night vig, but which side is the question?
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I am guessing based on common roles on mafia universe. The strongman is due to it being in other basic games. It's really all up to the mod, but someone said dy plays on MU (I think that was the one) so I'm going off common roles there and from her last basic game.
 
PippyPony said:
Tbh I was a little shocked that they didn't go for Trilt as a conversion, since she basically had "VILLAGE" tattooed on her face.

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She could be too obvious. She could not enjoy being converted and they knew that. They might already have a wolf seer and not need another. They might not have known she had a PR and just killed her for being strong village. They might have already converted someone. They might not be able to convert in this game. Lots of options.
 
I'm here. I don't have enough time to go back and reread a few things I want to right now so I don't have my thoughts fully formed yet. I just don't you guys to think I'm ghosting.
 
PippyPony said:
Sorry, that wasn't very clear. Trilt liked a pair where I questioned Ally's vote to lynch AM, since ally had been gunning hard for Nessie before that.

And, I'm not sure how to interpret that because AM turned out to be a wolf, so if Ally was also a wolf, I'd think she would have gone for a Nessie vote instead.

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She liked your post before close though, all of the WZ likes came after close. So I think she's trying to tell us something about WZ... not sure what though. Knowing Trilty was a seer gives me some eyebrow-raises that she is trying to draw so much attention to one person. Going to go through WZ's posts and see what's up.
 
awesomenessity said:
She liked your post before close though, all of the WZ likes came after close. So I think she's trying to tell us something about WZ... not sure what though. Knowing Trilty was a seer gives me some eyebrow-raises that she is trying to draw so much attention to one person. Going to go through WZ's posts and see what's up.
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Oooh I did not realize that. Good catch on the timing.

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PippyPony said:
And, I'm not sure how to interpret that because AM turned out to be a wolf, so if Ally was also a wolf, I'd think she would have gone for a Nessie vote instead.

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Click to expand...

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think both options are possible. I think if it's clear to a wolf that a fellow wolf is going down a wolf might jump on board the vote. AM's name was thrown around for quite some time so I bet the wolves expected it. I do see what you mean though.
 
serher said:
I don't necessarily agree with this. I think both options are possible. I think if it's clear to a wolf that a fellow wolf is going down a wolf might jump on board the vote. AM's name was thrown around for quite some time so I bet the wolves expected it. I do see what you mean though.
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Not at my computer at the moment, but I think there were wolves voting for wolves every time a wolf has had more than one or two votes.
 
lol I just went to Trilt's profile to see how many posts she liked... I didn't realize it was so many. I am going to read all of those now because I'm sure she had a reason.
 
Need to look at the timing of some of the votes yesterday. I would expect any remaining wolves to get on the AM lynch at some point for their own future self preservation, but probably not too early, and they probably weren't pushing it. With 3 wolves going down in a row, I don't see them being too keen on driving another to the grave.

I've still kinda got my eye on nessie but will need to re-evaluate based on AM's wolf status. That will determine how much we can interpret form yesterday's lynch as well, because if it was another wolf-wolf lynch that will make things more difficult.
 
WildZoo said:
Need to look at the timing of some of the votes yesterday. I would expect any remaining wolves to get on the AM lynch at some point for their own future self preservation, but probably not too early, and they probably weren't pushing it.
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That was my exact thought but I haven't actually gotten to analyzing the votes yet
 
WildZoo said:
Need to look at the timing of some of the votes yesterday. I would expect any remaining wolves to get on the AM lynch at some point for their own future self preservation, but probably not too early, and they probably weren't pushing it. With 3 wolves going down in a row, I don't see them being too keen on driving another to the grave.

I've still kinda got my eye on nessie but will need to re-evaluate based on AM's wolf status. That will determine how much we can interpret form yesterday's lynch as well, because if it was another wolf-wolf lynch that will make things more difficult.
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If Nessy is a wolf, they didn't exactly have great options. Triply so if Finn is a wolf.
 
serher said:
lol I just went to Trilt's profile to see how many posts she liked... I didn't realize it was so many. I am going to read all of those now because I'm sure she had a reason.
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It was literally almost all of my posts from page 4 to page 24. I still have no idea what she was trying to say.

The likes are all over the place in terms of which notifications I got when but I think that might be more due to the notifications system not sorting them perfectly since they happened so quickly, rather than a reflection on the order she was actually going in.
 
Trilt said:
I'm kind of being lured toward the nessie lynch on peoples' justifications, but I still think if AM flipped wolf it would give us much more info (because she had early lynch votes for both finn and nessie).
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Quoting this because it stuck out to me yesterday as helpful.
 
WildZoo said:
It was literally almost all of my posts from page 4 to page 24. I still have no idea what she was trying to say.

The likes are all over the place in terms of which notifications I got when but I think that might be more due to the notifications system not sorting them perfectly since they happened so quickly, rather than a reflection on the order she was actually going in.
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That's so strange... my first guess would be she seered you at some point and saw you were village (hence all of the "likes"), but she could also be trying to draw negative attention to you. So confuse.
 
serher said:
That's so strange... my first guess would be she seered you at some point and saw you were village (hence all of the "likes"), but she could also be trying to draw negative attention to you. So confuse.
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I feel like it would be hard to draw negative attention this way because we probably wouldn't even have noticed unless WZ pointed it out?
 
mmmdreamerz said:
I feel like it would be hard to draw negative attention this way because we probably wouldn't even have noticed unless WZ pointed it out?
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I can't believe I didn't realize that before posting 🙄 you're definitely right.

It still seems weird to so obviously support someone though. Because then I feel like the wolves will take note of it
 
mmmdreamerz said:
I feel like it would be hard to draw negative attention this way because we probably wouldn't even have noticed unless WZ pointed it out?
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Yeah, I mean someone would have had to have been reading back over the game and actually picked up on the fact that she had liked a bunch of my posts, and realized they had been liked recently and not around the time I posted them. Otherwise I would be the only one who knew.

I feel like if she wanted negative attention on me it would have made way more sense to like posts where people talked about me being sketchy or something.
 
serher said:
I don't necessarily agree with this. I think both options are possible. I think if it's clear to a wolf that a fellow wolf is going down a wolf might jump on board the vote. AM's name was thrown around for quite some time so I bet the wolves expected it. I do see what you mean though.
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WildZoo said:
Need to look at the timing of some of the votes yesterday. I would expect any remaining wolves to get on the AM lynch at some point for their own future self preservation, but probably not too early, and they probably weren't pushing it. With 3 wolves going down in a row, I don't see them being too keen on driving another to the grave.

I've still kinda got my eye on nessie but will need to re-evaluate based on AM's wolf status. That will determine how much we can interpret form yesterday's lynch as well, because if it was another wolf-wolf lynch that will make things more difficult.
Click to expand...

I definitely think the wolves thought AM was going down yesterday, because she used her 1 shot vig that night from what it looks like. Since she didn't use it on a strong villager, I assume she was trying to find a power role before she was lynched. In that case, the wolves could have jumped on her at anytime, especially if Nessy is a wolf too. But with Nessy voting AM D1,D2, and going to D4 (lynch ended early) I am leaning towards her being village. So maybe the wolves would vote for Nessy to try to save one of their own. I mean it was close.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
I definitely think the wolves thought AM was going down yesterday, because she used her 1 shot vig that night from what it looks like. Since she didn't use it on a strong villager, I assume she was trying to find a power role before she was lynched. In that case, the wolves could have jumped on her at anytime, especially if Nessy is a wolf too. But with Nessy voting AM D1,D2, and going to D4 (lynch ended early) I am leaning towards her being village. So maybe the wolves would vote for Nessy to try to save one of their own. I mean it was close.
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I did vote for her day 4 😛 Just pedantic but thought I would clarify haha

awesomenessity said:
I don't know when I'll be home tonight since I'm at a horse show (and they always take eons to do anything) so I'm going to

******lynch AM******
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Yesterday was D5. D4 was the Jil lynch. You had unlynched Jil and said you would vote AM but not right away because of plurality.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
Yesterday was D5. D4 was the Jil lynch. You had unlynched Jil and said you would vote AM but not right away because of plurality.
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Ohhh my apologies, thought yesterday was Day 4 for some reason. Thanks for the clarification 🙂 You are correct haha
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
I definitely think the wolves thought AM was going down yesterday, because she used her 1 shot vig that night from what it looks like. Since she didn't use it on a strong villager, I assume she was trying to find a power role before she was lynched. In that case, the wolves could have jumped on her at anytime, especially if Nessy is a wolf too. But with Nessy voting AM D1,D2, and going to D4 (lynch ended early) I am leaning towards her being village. So maybe the wolves would vote for Nessy to try to save one of their own. I mean it was close.
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Yeah, would probably get better village reads based on votes/push for her on previous days. Good catch on the prior AM votes from nessie.
 
My goal is to read through Trilt's posts to see if I can get a good idea of who she seered (may be difficult as it would only be two people...and she had 128 posts) and then read through AM's posts to see if there is any analysis to be had there - I don't think I'll find much since she was so cagey about her suspicions, but might find some reasons to clear people in her interactions with them. Then reread yesterday's lynch. Better than studying epidemiology...
 
WildZoo said:
My goal is to read through Trilt's posts to see if I can get a good idea of who she seered (may be difficult as it would only be two people...and she had 128 posts) and then read through AM's posts to see if there is any analysis to be had there - I don't think I'll find much since she was so cagey about her suspicions, but might find some reasons to clear people in her interactions with them. Then reread yesterday's lynch. Better than studying epidemiology...
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Wouldn't it put a target on those people she seered if we are pretty sure she confirmed them village?
 
Actually, as I said before there still might be a godfather who is mafia that comes up village when seered so I guess it doesn't matter. We still need to be careful with Trilts results. I think it was WZ and Ski she seered.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
Wouldn't it put a target on those people she seered if we are pretty sure she confirmed them village?
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Sure, but I think at this point, since trilt is dead and can't defend anyone she seered as village, it's better to know than to have that information be wasted. Plus we presumably have an odd night seer and it would be nice not to overlap on seer targets.

Wolves might not kill them (us? if she seered me) immediately anyway, because it's so tempting to make the village wonder why "cleared" people are still alive. Especially since the godfather idea has been brought up.
 
WildZoo said:
Sure, but I think at this point, since trilt is dead and can't defend anyone she seered as village, it's better to know than to have that information be wasted. Plus we presumably have an odd night seer and it would be nice not to overlap on seer targets.

Wolves might not kill them (us? if she seered me) immediately anyway, because it's so tempting to make the village wonder why "cleared" people are still alive. Especially since the godfather idea has been brought up.
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Haha definitely thought of this right after I asked about it.. If we are going by her liking millions of your posts because you are villager. I believe she did the same thing to Ski N4. I looked back and she had liked lots of Skis posts (of course don't know when she liked them), but she made a comment first thing in the morning that said "hush ski" and I got really confused on what she meant, but it would make sense if she was telling ski not to comment on the likes.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
Haha definitely thought of this right after I asked about it.. If we are going by her liking millions of your posts because you are villager. I believe she did the same thing to Ski N4. I looked back and she had liked lots of Skis posts (of course don't know when she liked them), but she made a comment first thing in the morning that said "hush ski" and I got really confused on what she meant, but it would make sense if she was telling ski not to comment on the likes.
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Ah very good catch!
 
Yup, she liked a bunch of Ski's posts Friday around 8:30pm, which I think was after the early close due to the Jil lynch. So almost exactly what she did with me, bunch of likes pretty soon after lynch closed. Nice breadcrumbs.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
I definitely think the wolves thought AM was going down yesterday, because she used her 1 shot vig that night from what it looks like. Since she didn't use it on a strong villager, I assume she was trying to find a power role before she was lynched. In that case, the wolves could have jumped on her at anytime, especially if Nessy is a wolf too. But with Nessy voting AM D1,D2, and going to D4 (lynch ended early) I am leaning towards her being village. So maybe the wolves would vote for Nessy to try to save one of their own. I mean it was close.
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I'm not sure why voting for a wolf, the same wolf, multiple days in a row makes someone look better? I'll have to go back and look at the reasoning later but I could see wolves voting for other wolves stu that later they could be like "yeah but I voted for wolves"

I might be totally over thinking it (because I voted for the same wolf twice in a row a couple times, so it would mean that would throw suspicion my way too) but it doesn't make me feel better about Nessie.
 
Here's what I see, looking at the known wolves.

D1:
- raf voted for ally and snowy
- Zen voted for cdo (village) and coop
- AM voted for finn
- Jil voted for Ski (possibly village per Trilt)

D2:
- raf voted for Cyndia (rather than creating a tie with Jil) and was lynched
- Zen voted for Jil (wolf)
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for raf (wolf)

D3:
- Zen voted for no one and was lynched
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for Zen (wolf)

D4:
- AM voted for no one
- Jil voted for Jil (wolf) and was lynched

D5:
- AM voted for nessie

So neither "votes for wolves" nor "is voted for by wolves," taken in isolation, is exactly a good indicator of villageryness.
 
Abnerrs said:
I'm not sure why voting for a wolf, the same wolf, multiple days in a row makes someone look better? I'll have to go back and look at the reasoning later but I could see wolves voting for other wolves stu that later they could be like "yeah but I voted for wolves"

I might be totally over thinking it (because I voted for the same wolf twice in a row a couple times, so it would mean that would throw suspicion my way too) but it doesn't make me feel better about Nessie.
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Honestly I'm super tempted to lynch nessie simply to figure out if it really was a wolf v. wolf lynch or not. I'm a little on the fence about her at the moment - mainly because the voting history gives me pause, but you're right, it could have been her voting as a cover. I also need to go back and take a look at her reasons, but I definitely remember feeling less suspicious of her compared to AM/finn when I reread last time. But now that we know AM was definitely a wolf, I think the information we'd get from lynching nessie would be super helpful for analyzing votes, regardless of how she flips.

I need to reread the last few pages again to make sure I'm okay with that and don't want to go after finn instead, but that probably won't happen until later since I stayed up super late cramming for a rough exam and need to sleep a little. So I'll be back to post more in a couple of hours.. 😴
 
allyphoe said:
Here's what I see, looking at the known wolves.

D1:
- raf voted for ally and snowy
- Zen voted for cdo (village) and coop
- AM voted for finn
- Jil voted for Ski (possibly village per Trilt)

D2:
- raf voted for Cyndia (rather than creating a tie with Jil) and was lynched
- Zen voted for Jil (wolf)
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for raf (wolf)

D3:
- Zen voted for no one and was lynched
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for Zen (wolf)

D4:
- AM voted for no one
- Jil voted for Jil (wolf) and was lynched

D5:
- AM voted for nessie

So neither "votes for wolves" nor "is voted for by wolves," taken in isolation, is exactly a good indicator of villageryness.
Click to expand...
Final tallies are like that. Especially since we've had so many wolf lynches, most of the time by the end of the day wolves are going to be voting for other wolves. People they really pushed for when there wasn't already heat on them, or people who did so for them, earlier tide turning votes...those are better indications but still difficult on wolf vs wolf days.
 
allyphoe said:
D1:
- raf voted for ally and snowy
- Zen voted for cdo (village) and coop
- AM voted for finn
- Jil voted for Ski (possibly village per Trilt)

D2:
- raf voted for Cyndia (rather than creating a tie with Jil) and was lynched
- Zen voted for Jil (wolf)
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for raf (wolf)

D3:
- Zen voted for no one and was lynched
- AM voted for Jil (wolf)
- Jil voted for Zen (wolf)

D4:
- AM voted for no one
- Jil voted for Jil (wolf) and was lynched

D5:
- AM voted for nessie
Click to expand...

Removing the dead villager, the known wolves, and the no-votes, these are the people who are unknowns, and have had a wolf vote for them:
- ally has voted for coop, Jil (wolfx3), Zen (wolf), AM (wolf)
- snowy has voted for ski, AM (wolfx2), Jil (wolf)
- coop has voted for cdo (village), ally, Jil (wolfx2), AM (wolf)
- finn has voted for coop, ally, Jil (wolf), AM (wolf)
- Ski (possibly cleared by Trilt) has voted for cdo (village), Cyndia, Zen (wolf)
- cyndia has voted for seher, Jil (wolf), AM (wolf)
- nessie has voted for AM (wolfx3), Zen (wolf), Jil (wolf)

Assuming there are remaining original wolves, these are the people who fit the wolf-bussing pattern and are most likely to be original wolves.

Of those, Ski, cyndia, and finn fit the pattern least (less likely wolves). Note that finn fits least because I'm not a wolf, so her vote for me is a non-wolfy village vote in my analysis. Cyndia fits least due to missing lynches. Ski fits least due to missing lynches and based on my assumption that Cyndia is likely village.

Nessie and I fit it most, with 5 wolf votes each.

I will say that having so many wolves as front-runners is making me wonder if I'm looking at this too narrowly. When I'm back later tonight, I might fiddle with my Excel to produce reverse-tallies (who each person voted for, rather than who voted for them) and see if that gives me anything interesting.

Random theory: D1 lynch votes are mostly random, because the wolves had no way too coordinate. From D2 on, they've done nothing but bus. (Nessie might argue that AM wasn't bussing her, but I see that D5 vote as a wolf-point for nessie.) Possible that they planned to bus like crazy, hoping to build village cred, because who'd have thought we'd get 4 wolves in 5 lynch cycles? Possible that they planned to bus only originals like crazy, leaving converts untouched and therefore harder to detect? This last possibility points towards 2 converts as the remaining wolves, because my suspicion list above contains no one who's had nearly as many votes from wolves as any of the known wolves have had.
 
WildZoo said:
Final tallies are like that. Especially since we've had so many wolf lynches, most of the time by the end of the day wolves are going to be voting for other wolves. People they really pushed for when there wasn't already heat on them, or people who did so for them, earlier tide turning votes...those are better indications but still difficult on wolf vs wolf days.
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I looked at intermediate tallies, not just finals. But yeah, so many wolves up for lynch is maybe creating too much noise to find a signal.
 
allyphoe said:
I looked at intermediate tallies, not just finals. But yeah, so many wolves up for lynch is maybe creating too much noise to find a signal.
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I had missed the "ands" in your original post, my bad! But yeah when we've done such a good job rooting out the wolves early on it makes it difficult to find the sneaky ones.
 
allyphoe said:
Removing the dead villager, the known wolves, and the no-votes, these are the people who are unknowns, and have had a wolf vote for them:
- ally has voted for coop, Jil (wolfx3), Zen (wolf), AM (wolf)
- snowy has voted for ski, AM (wolfx2), Jil (wolf)
- coop has voted for cdo (village), ally, Jil (wolfx2), AM (wolf)
- finn has voted for coop, ally, Jil (wolf), AM (wolf)
- Ski (possibly cleared by Trilt) has voted for cdo (village), Cyndia, Zen (wolf)
- cyndia has voted for seher, Jil (wolf), AM (wolf)
- nessie has voted for AM (wolfx3), Zen (wolf), Jil (wolf)

Assuming there are remaining original wolves, these are the people who fit the wolf-bussing pattern and are most likely to be original wolves.

Of those, Ski, cyndia, and finn fit the pattern least (less likely wolves). Note that finn fits least because I'm not a wolf, so her vote for me is a non-wolfy village vote in my analysis. Cyndia fits least due to missing lynches. Ski fits least due to missing lynches and based on my assumption that Cyndia is likely village.

Nessie and I fit it most, with 5 wolf votes each.

I will say that having so many wolves as front-runners is making me wonder if I'm looking at this too narrowly. When I'm back later tonight, I might fiddle with my Excel to produce reverse-tallies (who each person voted for, rather than who voted for them) and see if that gives me anything interesting.

Random theory: D1 lynch votes are mostly random, because the wolves had no way too coordinate. From D2 on, they've done nothing but bus. (Nessie might argue that AM wasn't bussing her, but I see that D5 vote as a wolf-point for nessie.) Possible that they planned to bus like crazy, hoping to build village cred, because who'd have thought we'd get 4 wolves in 5 lynch cycles? Possible that they planned to bus only originals like crazy, leaving converts untouched and therefore harder to detect? This last possibility points towards 2 converts as the remaining wolves, because my suspicion list above contains no one who's had nearly as many votes from wolves as any of the known wolves have had.
Click to expand...

This is a really good theory to me, and I'm definitely feeling nessie. I'll look back more tomorrow and I'm home in the evening. I'm sorry I haven't been the most active but I've been stuck in FL. I'm flying all day tomorrow so I'll check in while waiting in airports.
 
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