Back to basics WW again

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Having done a reverse tally (listing the target of each voter, rather than the voter of each target), I think my analysis last night was off track. While wolves voted for other wolves a lot, they're spread all over the "sort by % of votes for known wolves" list. And raf voted for zero known wolves.

Interesting, but likely meaningless, factoid: none of the people who have been night-killed, with the exception of Lyra, has received lynch votes. Unless I've screwed something up.
 
awesomenessity said:
How does plurality work?? I thought it was one person getting over 50% of the votes, and I only have 6/15 votes right now. But I might be wrong haha
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I'm stupid. 🙂 Was looking at the 9/15 votes total, not the 6/15 on one person.
 
serher said:
That's so strange... my first guess would be she seered you at some point and saw you were village (hence all of the "likes"), but she could also be trying to draw negative attention to you. So confuse.
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mmmdreamerz said:
I feel like it would be hard to draw negative attention this way because we probably wouldn't even have noticed unless WZ pointed it out?
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I doubt it was negative attention because I would think she would want to like all the posts so that in case she died, and we found out she was a seer, if anyone were to look back at posts of the people trilt seered, we would see that trilt was supporting that person hardcore. To me it seems like a pretty smart way to show your support but not go right out and say it.
 
finnickthedog said:
This is not necessarily true. Probably would be good if someone looked back at the last basics game to see if kills/conversions could happen the same night. I would but I'm just on a lunch break.

I'm inclined to think they can kill/convert the same night because with 4 wolves down it seems like a bad move to be sitting on a conversion opportunity. So I would expect them to have used it by now.
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SnowshoeDog143 said:
This is why I'm guessing 5 original wolves. Yeah then I would assume a convert already from what you guys are saying. I just didn't realize it could happen in the same night as a kill without special ability/items.
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Yeah, I had suggested last day cycle I think that potentially the nights with only 1 kill were conversion nights and that there was a wolf with a second kill (the only kill we saw on those nights) and that the lack of a second kill was because of a conversion. I was just spitballing, but potentially that could explain the lack of a second kill on some nights.

allyphoe said:
Random theory: D1 lynch votes are mostly random, because the wolves had no way too coordinate. From D2 on, they've done nothing but bus. (Nessie might argue that AM wasn't bussing her, but I see that D5 vote as a wolf-point for nessie.) Possible that they planned to bus like crazy, hoping to build village cred, because who'd have thought we'd get 4 wolves in 5 lynch cycles? Possible that they planned to bus only originals like crazy, leaving converts untouched and therefore harder to detect? This last possibility points towards 2 converts as the remaining wolves, because my suspicion list above contains no one who's had nearly as many votes from wolves as any of the known wolves have had.
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I like this theory.
 
SnowshoeDog143 said:
*side note* that smiley bugs me.. like who actually can have one eye all the way closed and the other super wide. Unless its a monocle.. then I would think the smiley would be to sophisticated to stick it's tongue out like that.
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I now see why there were one eye open tongue out posts from Jil and Abs in the Random thread....

(I WAS SO CONFUSED GUYS)
 
SkiOtter said:
Yeah, I had suggested last day cycle I think that potentially the nights with only 1 kill were conversion nights and that there was a wolf with a second kill (the only kill we saw on those nights) and that the lack of a second kill was because of a conversion. I was just spitballing, but potentially that could explain the lack of a second kill on some nights.
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I think it's fair to assume STL was responsible for one of the double kill nights, and the other was the use of AM's ability. So I'm not thinking the single kill nights were due to conversion. AM was a 1 shot vigilante, so she only had the one extra kill.
 
Just going to note again that there was no conversion in the last basics game. I'm going to go back and see how it worked in the anesthesia game, but I feel like the most recent game is maybe a little bit of a better indication of what we would have here.
 
I'd still be fine with a nessie lynch and that's probably where I will go today. Since the beginning, she's had a fair amount of posts, but the majority of them being more fluffy posts than content, possibly so that she can't be accused of not being present on the thread, but there aren't tons of content-filled posts. I'm also not the biggest fan of her saying she's fine with being lynched if it gets the village more information. You shouldn't be okay with losing a villager (and it being YOURSELF being lost) just so the village can get info. You should be fighting and posting your suspicions and trying to save yourself. I'll hold off on my nessie vote for now since she's at 6 and plurality should be 8, but that is more than likely where I'll be voting today.
 
WildZoo said:
I think it's fair to assume STL was responsible for one of the double kill nights, and the other was the use of AM's ability. So I'm not thinking the single kill nights were due to conversion. AM was a 1 shot vigilante, so she only had the one extra kill.
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for some reason I thought there had been more nights with multiple kills.
 
Re: anesthesia game (which was another basics game a while back), there were 2 conversions. Also of note though, is that the game in that case was not as basic as this game or the other recent basics game - there were items, players weren't told exactly what their abilities were. Anyway, conversions in that game happened on no kill nights. It seems that they attempted to convert someone once (first no kill night) but their target was protected, so they tried again later (second no kill night). If there are conversions in this game, I would really expect them to happen on a no kill night.

At any rate, if I don't know whether or not there are conversions, I tend to keep looking for originals until no one makes sense as an original anymore.
 
I was looking back at the original roster and guys...
SnowshoeDog143 said:
1. DVMD
2. Trilt
3. WZ
4. SkiOtter
5. Cdoconn
6. SARdoghandler
7. awesomenessity
8. mmmdreamerz
9. kcoughli
10. allyphoe
11. Coopah
12. Lyra
13. STL
14. serher
15. Cyndia
16. Zensing
17. LIS
18. finn
19. AM
20. Jilary
21. raf
22. Abnerrs
23. PippyPony
24. Doctor-S
25. HowConfusing
26. nyanko
27. SnowshoeDog143
Click to expand...

*tinfoil hat activates*
 
I'm home now so I'll start taking a look at a few people but I wanted to respond to these.

allyphoe said:
Yeah, I personally am not suspicious of KC at the moment. Just didn't care for finn's reason.
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What was wrong with my reason? Seems strange to question me about it if you're not suspicious of KC in the first place.

allyphoe said:
So accommodate their laziness, and tell them who you think they ought to be voting for.
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Did you miss that I was at work or were you just ignoring it?

That sketchy vibe I was getting from you at the beginning of the game seems to be returning.
 
finnickthedog said:
I'm home now so I'll start taking a look at a few people but I wanted to respond to these.



What was wrong with my reason? Seems strange to question me about it if you're not suspicious of KC in the first place.



Did you miss that I was at work or were you just ignoring it?

That sketchy vibe I was getting from you at the beginning of the game seems to be returning.
Click to expand...

Re the reason: It just struck me as weird, because I happened to remember the discussion about whether KC was actually blocked. Just because we reach the same conclusion doesn't mean I can't find your logic iffy.

Re being at work: you'd continued to post a bunch after saying you were going to be gone. By the time stamps, it looked like you were still around. If not, here you are now.
 
I won't be around for close, so want to get my vote in now. By my less-stupid count, we still shouldn't be at plurality.

**** Lynch Nessy ****
 
I'll likely be voting for nessy. I think trilt was alluding to AM flipping wolf being a soft clear for nessy based on vote history but I'm not sure I see it that way. WOuld need to look at the exact timing of the votes. Also...
WildZoo said:
More color coding. Possible seered villagers are italicized. Later I want to expand this to include earlier votes that were later waffled but that's too much to do in class.

Day 1:
Serher 1 (cyndia)
Coopah 3 (lyra, finn, zen,)
Ally ()
Cyndia ()
Finn 2 (Pippy, AM)
nessy 1 (serher,)
Confusing 1 (nyan)
cdo 5 (ski, SAR, confusing, STL, coop)
Lyra 1 (Doc-S)
AM 1 (nessy)
LIS 1 (DVMD)
Raf 3 (Trilt, 3m, Abs)
Ski 2 (Jil, ,Snowshoe)
STL ()
snowy 1 (raf)
Jil 4 (, ally, WZ, cdo, KC )

26/27


Day 2 Official Lynch Tally:

Jil (6)- STL, WZ, AM, Zen, ally, LIS
STL (2)- Nyan, KC,
AM (3)- SAR, nessy, Snowy
Abs (1)- DocS
Raf (7)- Trilt, serher, DVMD, jil, 3m, abners, confusing
Cyndia (1) - Ski, raf
Ally (2) - finn, Coopah
Zen (1) - Pippy

23/25

Official lynch tally d3:
abnerrs 1 - DVMD
finn -
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Jil 8 - snowshoe, AM, Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

21/22

Day 4 and 5 in next post, for some reason it wouldn't let me paste here
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I forgot to put AM in red in some places in my original post :lame: Look at the D2 lynch! 4 wolves on the board!
 
lynch ally

Unless I find a compelling reason to vote for someone else or I hear a satisfactory explanation for this. What exactly was iffy about my logic?

allyphoe said:
Re the reason: It just struck me as weird, because I happened to remember the discussion about whether KC was actually blocked. Just because we reach the same conclusion doesn't mean I can't find your logic iffy.

Re being at work: you'd continued to post a bunch after saying you were going to be gone. By the time stamps, it looked like you were still around. If not, here you are now.
Click to expand...

See, because I was thinking about it and if you believed that STL was blocked and KC was covering then it makes no sense for you not to be suspicious of her.
But you've now said you reached the same conclusion I did which brings us to the option #2...

You agree that KC was probably the person actually blocked. So why do you think it's iffy logic to think that makes her less likely to be an original wolf?

I'll still be looking into other people, but this is where I'm placing my vote right now.
 
PippyPony said:
I do kinda see her as a good convert candidate
Click to expand...

I feel like ally would be another good conversion target. But I kinda don't want to go there (conversion-hunting) yet.

Basically, anyone in the middle-ground of "not really suspected, not really strong village or strong wolf" makes a good conversion target. But it depends on who the remaining wolves were/are when conversion is done - n00b wolves will tend to go for the most experienced player with the strongest street cred, which is a bad-but-common choice.
 
finnickthedog said:
To clarify, I don't think they're being lazy because they're voting for me. I think they're being lazy and they're voting for me.
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I'm definitely a lazy bastard. Should I switch my vote back?

With regards to all the Abs-might-be-a-wolf posters: Where were y'all back when I was suspicious of her? Now that I've moved on from it, I'm going to get all grumbly if she ends up turning out to be a wolf.
 
allyphoe said:
So accommodate their laziness, and tell them who you think they ought to be voting for.
Click to expand...

Oh, right, THAT'S why I was voting for Finnick. I forgot. Kept playing the "I'll talk about anything except who I think might be suspicious game."

Hm. Now I kinda want to switch my vote back to @finnickthedog .....
 
SkiOtter said:
Y
I like this theory.
Click to expand...

I don't like that theory. You're saying the wolves' big game plan was bus everyone (or at least a few) originals and rely on converts?

That's a LOT of busing.... I'm all about the bus ('bout the bus, no ...), but the wolves can't afford to just throw away too many of their numbers.
 
finnickthedog said:
Well... at least LIS and I have to agree on something.
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Oh ****! We got caught, due to Dy's sneakiness of grouping all the wolves together in the roster.

64865291.jpg
 
WildZoo said:
Should have made it more clear that was a joke post :laugh:

Was thinking while driving, nessie was a wolf last game, yes?
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Yes. I can't remember who else, but...

Other than evaluating for wolf playing style, though, I never understand why people play the "so-n-so was a wolf LAST game, so...." card.
 
LetItSnow said:
Yes. I can't remember who else, but...

Other than evaluating for wolf playing style, though, I never understand why people play the "so-n-so was a wolf LAST game, so...." card.
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Well, because people are always wolves two games in a row. Or maybe it's that they never are... Shoot, I can't remember. Should we flip a coin?
 
finnickthedog said:
Well, because people are always wolves two games in a row. Or maybe it's that they never are... Shoot, I can't remember. Should we flip a coin?
Click to expand...

If that means I'm a convert two games in a row, I'm going to start offering to send mods real cash money to give me vigilante roles so I can personally kill people who convert me.
 
LetItSnow said:
Yes. I can't remember who else, but...

Other than evaluating for wolf playing style, though, I never understand why people play the "so-n-so was a wolf LAST game, so...." card.
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Oh, it's just because I was trying to decide whether or not she would be likely to vote for a fellow wolf d1, which I think a totally new wolf would be less likely to do, especially since the wolves hadn't been able to talk yet at that point, but then I remembered she had been a wolf before, so wanted to confirm that I was remembering correctly.
 
WildZoo said:
Should have made it more clear that was a joke post

Was thinking while driving, nessie was a wolf last game, yes?
Click to expand...
Yes. Along with me, who had the brilliant idea of converting LIS. And we did bus every original wolf except me. Which worked so well that the fact that it seems to be happening again is about the only village point I've got for Nessy - she saw what happens when you set foot on that slippery slope.
 
Sorry about not checking in last night before plurality hit guys. I have the worst luck traveling. I will review and come back with any ideas I can articulate.
 
finnickthedog said:
I missed this. Guess I won't be getting an explanation before deciding whether I want to leave my vote where it is.
Click to expand...
finnickthedog said:
lynch ally

Unless I find a compelling reason to vote for someone else or I hear a satisfactory explanation for this. What exactly was iffy about my logic?



See, because I was thinking about it and if you believed that STL was blocked and KC was covering then it makes no sense for you not to be suspicious of her.
But you've now said you reached the same conclusion I did which brings us to the option #2...

You agree that KC was probably the person actually blocked. So why do you think it's iffy logic to think that makes her less likely to be an original wolf?

I'll still be looking into other people, but this is where I'm placing my vote right now.
Click to expand...
I actually don't have a strong opinion on who was blocked; KC declined to confirm or deny on the grounds that the wolves were trying to out power roles and mentioned that the target may not have been notified that they were the target if there was nothing to block.

So KC could have been blocked and know, KC could have been blocked and not know, STL could have been blocked and KC is a wolf, STL could have been blocked and KC was being set up. So one scenario in 4 makes her a wolf, and the rest of her play isn't particularly wolfy.

(Dy ninja'd me with close, so this didn't post last night.)
 
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