Back to basics WW again

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Updated color code. I'm feeling confusing, coop, or abs today based on what I'm seeing here and what is already in my notes, so I'll be looking more closely at their posts.

Day 1:
Serher 1 (cyndia)
Coopah 3 (lyra, finn, zen,)
Ally ()
Cyndia ()
Finn 2 (Pippy, AM)
nessy 1 (serher,)
Confusing 1 (nyan)
cdo 5 (ski, SAR, confusing, STL, coop)
Lyra 1 (Doc-S)
AM 1 (nessy)
LIS 1 (DVMD)
Raf 3 (Trilt, 3m, Abs)
Ski 2 (Jil, ,Snowshoe)
STL ()
snowy 1 (raf)
Jil 4 (, ally, WZ, cdo, KC )

26/27


Day 2 Official Lynch Tally:

Jil (6)- STL, WZ, AM, Zen, ally, LIS
STL (2)- Nyan, KC,
AM (3)- SAR, nessy, Snowy
Abs (1)- DocS
Raf (7)- Trilt, serher, DVMD, jil, 3m, abners, confusing
Cyndia (1) - Ski, raf
Ally (2) - finn, Coopah
Zen (1) - Pippy

23/25

Official lynch tally d3:
abnerrs 1 - DVMD
finn -
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Jil 8 - snowshoe, AM, Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

21/22



Day 4 Official lynch tally
Jilary 11 - ally, dr.s, serher, confused, coopah, wz, 3m, LIS, abs, jil, finn
AM 1 - SARS
12/20

Day 5 Official Lynch Tally
Nessie 6 - pippy, WZ, AM, Abs, 3m, serher
Finn 2 - LIS, kcough
AM 8 - trilt, Nessie, snow, ally, Finn, cyndia, coop, confusing

Don't think an official tally was posted here so hope this is right...

Day 6 unofficial Lynch Tally:
Ally 1 - nessy, finn
Finn 2 - kcough, snowy
Nessy 7 - Abnerrs, LIS, pippy, Cyndia, serher, coop, ally

11/15 votes cast
 
Actually I want to look at ally more closely as well.

From d2: I have a feeling there is probably at least one other wolf here
Raf (7)- Trilt, serher, DVMD, jil, 3m, abners, confusing

D3: almost certain there's another one here
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn

D4: would be surprised not to find one here
AM 8 - trilt, Nessie, snow, ally, Finn, cyndia, coop, confusing
 
Was just about to post that. I'd like to take a hard look at ally. As I mentioned to Nessie, I had a lot of wolfy tallies for ally from the first few days. She posted a LOT yesterday, but...I dunno. It seemed to be kind of convoluted at times. Her votes stand out to me on the timing, too.

The one tick I have in Ally's favor is that I don't think she's playing exactly like she did last game. Although, I really didn't think she was a wolf by the middle-end of last game, either, and she definitely was, so I think she just might be extra sneaky.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
Sorry guys I just completely forgot WW existed last night and I don't even have a particularly good excuse.
 
allyphoe said:
I actually don't have a strong opinion on who was blocked; KC declined to confirm or deny on the grounds that the wolves were trying to out power roles and mentioned that the target may not have been notified that they were the target if there was nothing to block.

So KC could have been blocked and know, KC could have been blocked and not know, STL could have been blocked and KC is a wolf, STL could have been blocked and KC was being set up. So one scenario in 4 makes her a wolf, and the rest of her play isn't particularly wolfy.

(Dy ninja'd me with close, so this didn't post last night.)
Click to expand...

You told me yesterday (or at least implied) that you reached the same conclusion I did. Now you're telling me you didn't reach a conclusion at all.

Although I still say that if you actually believe the scenario with STL being blocked and KC covering is a likely possibility that it doesn't make sense for you to not be suspicious of KC. So since you've said you don't find her suspicious, I have to assume you don't actually think it was the case.

ButI didn't actually ask you what you thought about KC. I asked you what was oh so iffy about my logic. And I still want to know.
 
Well that didn't go well.

I've been skimming through some of the day three posts because that seems to have been the most revealing day.

I'm interested in taking another look at abnerrs as well. That whole bit with the comment from raf keeps coming back to me.
Coopah also made some comments in defense of wolves but may have been incidental.
At the same time, Finn was pretty defensive at end of yesterday.
As far as cyndia goes, I just remember in particular the post from the beginning about going to post more often or something along those lines. I think she has posted more since the conference finished but don't really have a basis for comparison.

I feel like I'm grasping at straws here and so I keep going in circles at this point. The raf comment is probably the most concrete bit out of the bunch for me currently. I will try to take a closer look at Ally today.
 
mmmdreamerz said:
Sorry guys I just completely forgot WW existed last night and I don't even have a particularly good excuse.
Click to expand...
So....Want to give us some of your thoughts? I'm still feeling like we're not getting a lot of analysis from you. Unless I missed something, the last few days you've only made short posts mostly related to hypothetical game theory, not lynch targets.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
finnickthedog said:
You told me yesterday (or at least implied) that you reached the same conclusion I did. Now you're telling me you didn't reach a conclusion at all.

Although I still say that if you actually believe the scenario with STL being blocked and KC covering is a likely possibility that it doesn't make sense for you to not be suspicious of KC. So since you've said you don't find her suspicious, I have to assume you don't actually think it was the case.

ButI didn't actually ask you what you thought about KC. I asked you what was oh so iffy about my logic. And I still want to know.
Click to expand...

Can I just chime in here and say me neither confirming or denying being blocked is not a really good "cover" so I find this conclusion a bit misguided. But clearly I'm biased so...

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
I lynched Ally day 1 before moving off of her for self-preservation then voted her again Day 2. I'd love to get more info on her because she sketches me out but no one has seemed to go for it. I'm all in favor of looking more in depth at Ally.

Cyndia has been on my watch list for a while now, and no one seems to be able to tell any difference in her game play from normal, but being that quiet isn't helpful to the village even if she is a villager.
 
HowConfusing said:
As far as cyndia goes, I just remember in particular the post from the beginning about going to post more often or something along those lines. I think she has posted more since the conference finished but don't really have a basis for comparison.
Click to expand...

That was me genuinely commenting that I wanted to post more since I know I'm one of the quieter players, which makes things tough in a basics game especially... I actually check in and read threads often (aside from the first couple days of this game when I was busy), but usually I don't post unless I'm brought up or have useful things to add. I'm just not really one to post random theories. But anyways, I'm happy to answer any questions about my previous reasoning on posts!

I'll also post some more detailed observations/feels on people once I reread some pages, but as of right now I'm looking at voting abs or some of the other people that lynched nessie earlier in the day over AM/finn, or else some of the late voters onto AM. It felt like the vote cascaded towards AM pretty fast, so I'm not really looking at the later voters on nessie.
 
I was looking at the lynch votes, especially from day 1. I feel like with four people voting for Jill the first day, maybe there's a wolf in there. Cdoc was village, WZ comes off villager to me, and I don't have a great feeling for KC either way. Ally's voting is interesting. She held on to Jill both day one and two, switches to Zen, and then goes back to Jill. I find it interesting that she switched from Jill for day three like that...
 
lynch Abs
For now, to get a vote on the table, and because I really want to know what was up with those vouches. Her voting record is what I would expect from a veteran wolf as well, and there are no interactions between her and any of the known wolves that I can find that strike me as wolf-village interactions.
 
I keep going back and forth on those vouches from raf and AM. What really doesn't make sense to me is that raf was all "Abs is being a super helpful villager!" when Abs had been throwing suspicion raf's way for 2 days.
 
In regards to abs...I was going to unlynch but part of me just wants to know for sure. I'm talking to myself guys. Someone help me think this through (I need an adult!)
The voting for raf two days in a row - villagery? Or bussing?
Those vouches - wtf, or wtf?
And then there's the suspicion of nessie for several days, and voting for her over AM pretty late on d5. If she's a wolf, why mess up her, up to that point, perfect voting record when AM was clearly going down either that day or the next?
 
I'm thinking ally, but LIS is bothering me by being so quiet. LIS is usually driving lynches and accusing people left and right. I've seen him in other threads more than this one, and I realize he's been busy, but he's not acting normally.
 
WildZoo said:
In regards to abs...I was going to unlynch but part of me just wants to know for sure. I'm talking to myself guys. Someone help me think this through (I need an adult!)
The voting for raf two days in a row - villagery? Or bussing?
Those vouches - wtf, or wtf?
And then there's the suspicion of nessie for several days, and voting for her over AM pretty late on d5. If she's a wolf, why mess up her, up to that point, perfect voting record when AM was clearly going down either that day or the next?
Click to expand...

Towards the beginning of the game, I did find some of her responses when people would accuse her of being wolf-y as not really defending herself all that well. I definitely took notic, but wasn't sure if it was just her play style not to get defensive...
 
WildZoo said:
Updated color code. I'm feeling confusing, coop, or abs today based on what I'm seeing here and what is already in my notes, so I'll be looking more closely at their posts.

Day 1:
Serher 1 (cyndia)
Coopah 3 (lyra, finn, zen,)
Ally ()
Cyndia ()
Finn 2 (Pippy, AM)
nessy 1 (serher,)
Confusing 1 (nyan)
cdo 5 (ski, SAR, confusing, STL, coop)
Lyra 1 (Doc-S)
AM 1 (nessy)
LIS 1 (DVMD)
Raf 3 (Trilt, 3m, Abs)
Ski 2 (Jil, ,Snowshoe)
STL ()
snowy 1 (raf)
Jil 4 (, ally, WZ, cdo, KC )

26/27


Day 2 Official Lynch Tally:

Jil (6)- STL, WZ, AM, Zen, ally, LIS
STL (2)- Nyan, KC,
AM (3)- SAR, nessy, Snowy
Abs (1)- DocS
Raf (7)- Trilt, serher, DVMD, jil, 3m, abners, confusing
Cyndia (1) - Ski, raf
Ally (2) - finn, Coopah
Zen (1) - Pippy

23/25

Official lynch tally d3:
abnerrs 1 - DVMD
finn -
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Jil 8 - snowshoe, AM, Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

21/22



Day 4 Official lynch tally
Jilary 11 - ally, dr.s, serher, confused, coopah, wz, 3m, LIS, abs, jil, finn
AM 1 - SARS
12/20

Day 5 Official Lynch Tally
Nessie 6 - pippy, WZ, AM, Abs, 3m, serher
Finn 2 - LIS, kcough
AM 8 - trilt, Nessie, snow, ally, Finn, cyndia, coop, confusing

Don't think an official tally was posted here so hope this is right...

Day 6 unofficial Lynch Tally:
Ally 1 - nessy, finn
Finn 2 - kcough, snowy
Nessy 7 - Abnerrs, LIS, pippy, Cyndia, serher, coop, ally

11/15 votes cast
Click to expand...

Based purely on vote analysis (and not having gone back to read in detail), here is where I was thinking some wolves might be hiding. Just quoting WZ's list for reference. It seems like we agree quite a bit so sorry for repeating ideas, but I figured I would add my thoughts

D1- on either the Jil or cdo vote, although the timing does matter here too; I was thinking early votes on Jil (e.g. ally) and late votes on cdo (e.g. Coopah) are the most suspicious

D2- late votes on raf, when raf was already well under if I am remembering correctly (although I realize my opinion is biased here 😛 I still think that timing makes the most sense); originally had thought early votes on Jil would be another good place, which is wrong for WZ (who has effectively been cleared as village) but right for AM

D3- if I remember correctly Zen was pretty clearly going down (after her role reveal I think?), so I would say there's probably a wolf there but I could see it going either way. This one is hard to analyze for me.

D4- not sure how much we can infer here because there are only 12/20 votes, but a wolf could definitely still be on Jil

D5- later votes for AM are a bit suspect in my opinion

D6- don't have much of an opinion here yet

So from all of those thoughts I am most concerned about confusing and ally. However I don't want to consider this in isolation from what they have posted, so I will research a bit more tonight. I will probably go with an ally vote because that makes the most sense to me, but you guys definitely have me thinking more about Abs with all of those soft vouches. And I honestly wasn't that concerned about confusing before this so now I am just confused...
 
We're getting to the point in the game that I was pretty crappy at the first time... haha
 
WildZoo said:
lynch Abs
For now, to get a vote on the table, and because I really want to know what was up with those vouches. Her voting record is what I would expect from a veteran wolf as well, and there are no interactions between her and any of the known wolves that I can find that strike me as wolf-village interactions.
Click to expand...

Can you elaborate about your feelings for Abs' voting record being like that of a veteran wolf? I'm not sure I know what you mean
 
serher said:
Can you elaborate about your feelings for Abs' voting record being like that of a veteran wolf? I'm not sure I know what you mean
Click to expand...
(this was before i noticed that she voted nessie d5)
She's managed to be on a wolf lynch (almost) every day. Obviously we have some villagers who did the same. But while I wouldn't necessarily expect a newer wolf to think/want to put a vote on a fellow wolf d1, it's absolutely something I would expect from an experienced wolf, especially since someone else had brought up the suspicions anyway.

That d5 vote is giving me pause though, as I mentioned.
 
LetItSnow said:
This is lazy of me, but I want people's reads on Cyndia. Particularly from WZ, kcoughli, and Finn.
Click to expand...
Hokay so from a very quick glance over her posts... she's pretty absent honestly (hi pot, kettle here). One post a day for the last three days and I noticed she uses the word "honest" or "honestly" a lot, which probably doesn't mean anything but was enough for me to notice.

Not a lot of new, insightful commentary (again, pot, kettle), and did seem a bit wishy washy on some of the posts. Honestly (see what I did there?) I'm not really getting a lot of feels one way or the other on her. Actually feels similar to AM in the posts (not sure why, more like agreeing with people and having soft opinions? is that a real thing? I may have made that up). Granted I didn't actually think AM was that sketchy (because I feel like she always plays like she played, so her being sketchy is normal?) so maybe not the best judge here.

All this to say, I could be convinced to vote her way if people are feeling it but right now I'm still leaning towards Finn. Abs I thought was a lot sketchier early game, with the raf thing, but lately I feel like she's become less so. Granted it could be just she's adjusting her play style to blend better but yeah, not standing out as much to me now as she did earlier.

I'm curious about the ally-voters. I think earlier someone confused the raf-Abs thing with ally (will try to go hunt for the post). I know last game (or 2 games ago? I don't remember) ally only pinged my radar because she got suspicious of me, but ended up being a wolf. So basically unless she's suspicious of me, I assume she's a villager, because that's clearly a great strategy. (but really, find it hard to read her).

Coop, Pippy, and Confusing are all still on my list as well, for reasons previously described.
 
HowConfusing said:
Well that didn't go well.

I've been skimming through some of the day three posts because that seems to have been the most revealing day.

I'm interested in taking another look at abnerrs as well. That whole bit with the comment from raf keeps coming back to me.
Coopah also made some comments in defense of wolves but may have been incidental.
At the same time, Finn was pretty defensive at end of yesterday.
As far as cyndia goes, I just remember in particular the post from the beginning about going to post more often or something along those lines. I think she has posted more since the conference finished but don't really have a basis for comparison.

I feel like I'm grasping at straws here and so I keep going in circles at this point. The raf comment is probably the most concrete bit out of the bunch for me currently. I will try to take a closer look at Ally today.
Click to expand...
So are you talking about the raf comment towards Abs but then wanting to take a closer look at ally? Or a different raf comment with ally? or are the two things completely separate thoughts? Just wanted to clarify
 
WildZoo said:
lynch Abs
For now, to get a vote on the table, and because I really want to know what was up with those vouches. Her voting record is what I would expect from a veteran wolf as well, and there are no interactions between her and any of the known wolves that I can find that strike me as wolf-village interactions.
Click to expand...
A. Today was **** for most of the day but then I went to a dinner for galliprant and it was interesting and dinner was freaking delicious and I had 3 free glares of wine. I'm buzzing hard.
2. They WERE wolf villager convos. I'm seriously not sure how to defend those. Because I'm not exactly freaking sure how you would decide they they AREN'T wolf villager interactions.
 
mmmdreamerz said:
Towards the beginning of the game, I did find some of her responses when people would accuse her of being wolf-y as not really defending herself all that well. I definitely took notic, but wasn't sure if it was just her play style not to get defensive...
Click to expand...
Because it's the beginning of the game and no one really has ****. It's how this game works. Why would I try to defend when everyone is grasping at straws anyway
 
WildZoo said:
(this was before i noticed that she voted nessie d5)
She's managed to be on a wolf lynch (almost) every day. Obviously we have some villagers who did the same. But while I wouldn't necessarily expect a newer wolf to think/want to put a vote on a fellow wolf d1, it's absolutely something I would expect from an experienced wolf, especially since someone else had brought up the suspicions anyway.

That d5 vote is giving me pause though, as I mentioned.
Click to expand...
Because I picked the person that made my gut gurgle and then I stuck with them.
 
kcoughli said:
So are you talking about the raf comment towards Abs but then wanting to take a closer look at ally? Or a different raf comment with ally? or are the two things completely separate thoughts? Just wanted to clarify
Click to expand...

The raf comment about abs and also taking a look at ally as in two separate thoughts.
 
kcoughli said:
Hokay so from a very quick glance over her posts... she's pretty absent honestly (hi pot, kettle here). One post a day for the last three days and I noticed she uses the word "honest" or "honestly" a lot, which probably doesn't mean anything but was enough for me to notice.

Not a lot of new, insightful commentary (again, pot, kettle), and did seem a bit wishy washy on some of the posts. Honestly (see what I did there?) I'm not really getting a lot of feels one way or the other on her. Actually feels similar to AM in the posts (not sure why, more like agreeing with people and having soft opinions? is that a real thing? I may have made that up). Granted I didn't actually think AM was that sketchy (because I feel like she always plays like she played, so her being sketchy is normal?) so maybe not the best judge here.

All this to say, I could be convinced to vote her way if people are feeling it but right now I'm still leaning towards Finn. Abs I thought was a lot sketchier early game, with the raf thing, but lately I feel like she's become less so. Granted it could be just she's adjusting her play style to blend better but yeah, not standing out as much to me now as she did earlier.

I'm curious about the ally-voters. I think earlier someone confused the raf-Abs thing with ally (will try to go hunt for the post). I know last game (or 2 games ago? I don't remember) ally only pinged my radar because she got suspicious of me, but ended up being a wolf. So basically unless she's suspicious of me, I assume she's a villager, because that's clearly a great strategy. (but really, find it hard to read her).

Coop, Pippy, and Confusing are all still on my list as well, for reasons previously described.
Click to expand...
Wtf are you going on about? What raf me ally thing? I have zero clue what you're talking about.
 
Abnerrs said:
A. Today was **** for most of the day but then I went to a dinner for galliprant and it was interesting and dinner was freaking delicious and I had 3 free glares of wine. I'm buzzing hard.
2. They WERE wolf villager convos. I'm seriously not sure how to defend those. Because I'm not exactly freaking sure how you would decide they they AREN'T wolf villager interactions.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying they aren't, necessarily, I'm saying you don't have any direct interactions with known wolves on the thread that are definitely (or at least most likely) NOT interactions wolves would have with each other. None that I saw anyway. That alone doesn't mean you're a wolf, I'm pretty sure I don't have any of those types of interactions with them either. It's just something that I look for when I'm trying to soft clear people.
 
WildZoo said:
I'm not saying they aren't, necessarily, I'm saying you don't have any direct interactions with known wolves on the thread that are definitely (or at least most likely) NOT interactions wolves would have with each other. None that I saw anyway. That alone doesn't mean you're a wolf, I'm pretty sure I don't have any of those types of interactions with them either. It's just something that I look for when I'm trying to soft clear people.
Click to expand...
I'm too buzzed to understand this. I'll reread in tomorrow.
 
*********************
It has been a while but....
Special announcement!

0d923f43dfb8a24355ef017e1c7487a6.jpg


*************************
 
LetItSnow said:
I gotta admit, this is the part of the game I hate. It requires going back and reading, and I stare at that "38 pages" down at the bottom and it just makes me sigh.
Click to expand...
I read somewhere that it can help to put all the dead villagers on ignore so you just see interactions between living people and the known wolves. I had started to do that yesterday but...school. Going to try again later today.
 
WildZoo said:
I read somewhere that it can help to put all the dead villagers on ignore so you just see interactions between living people and the known wolves. I had started to do that yesterday but...school. Going to try again later today.
Click to expand...

Oh. This is cool.
 
WildZoo said:
I read somewhere that it can help to put all the dead villagers on ignore so you just see interactions between living people and the known wolves. I had started to do that yesterday but...school. Going to try again later today.
Click to expand...

Huh. I've never heard that. But can you ignore on a thread-only basis?

I mean, DVMD I can live with on ignore, but some people I like to see their posts in other threads... 🙂
 
LetItSnow said:
Huh. I've never heard that. But can you ignore on a thread-only basis?

I mean, DVMD I can live with on ignore, but some people I like to see their posts in other threads... 🙂
Click to expand...
Unfortunately you can't here (I wish!). So when I've done it before I put them on ignore, read through the whole thread and make my notes, then take them off ignore when I'm done. So it's a bit of work but maybe less work than reading through the whole thread with everyone's posts showing up?
 
WildZoo said:
I read somewhere that it can help to put all the dead villagers on ignore so you just see interactions between living people and the known wolves. I had started to do that yesterday but...school. Going to try again later today.
Click to expand...

Ooh didnt know that was an option! I might try that. Yesterday I started reading multiple times and gave up after just a few pages. There's just so much content on this thread....
 
WildZoo said:
Unfortunately you can't here (I wish!). So when I've done it before I put them on ignore, read through the whole thread and make my notes, then take them off ignore when I'm done. So it's a bit of work but maybe less work than reading through the whole thread with everyone's posts showing up?
Click to expand...
To add to this, if there's a specific interaction between a dead and living player that you are interested in, you can show individual ignored posts, or all the ignored posts on one page, as well
 
WildZoo said:
D3: almost certain there's another one here
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Click to expand...

Hm. I'm not so entirely sure I agree with that to the level of saying "almost certain".

Wolves were down 1 (raf) at that point.

Jil (2) is the other wolf being voted on, and she's on the Zen (3) vote.

The other vote (Jil) has AM (4).

There's probably 6 total wolves - the question is where it's 4+2, 5+1, or 6+0. That leaves at most (?) two wolves hiding in the Zen/Jil vote. Here's the vote again:

Official lynch tally d3:
abnerrs 1 - DVMD
finn -
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Jil 8 - snowshoe, AM, Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

Judging by the D2 lynch the wolves had already decided Jil was going down and it was just a matter of when, so I can easily see the remaining 0/1/2 wolves sitting on Jil as I can Zen.

D3 lynch was 21/22 players ... I'm not sure who the not-voting person was. We don't have 'ongoing' rosters, and I'm just not feeling energetic enough to go figure out who the non-voter was. But the non-voting player also could be a wolf; can't ignore that.

So I guess my question is: Why do you say "almost certain"? That seems like a pretty big overreach to me.
 
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