Big Beautiful Bill: Implications for Pain...

[hyperalgesia]

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The WaPo article is just talking about the jobs report from Friday that includes inflation number and the labor markets.

I don't understand what you want to revisit. Its in the report.

Trump fired the author. That should tell you all that you need.

You correctly indicated the WaPo report speculates on the "future economy".

Bolded below is a very very recent post in the Washington Post that supports my earlier statements concerning the future economy. It this continues it will have a deleterious effect on the deficit and our country as a whole and it is all self inflicted by bad policy.

Should we look at the economy in the future to validate this speculation? And if so when?

Or should we never do that and just keep speculating, without ever checking to see if the speculation pans out?

 

[mille125]

He wants to circle back to this in a yr so you can eat crow

There is not any prediction. The article said:

1) This Friday's job report was disappointing and suggested a weak labor market and stubborn inflation.
2) Trump's personal policies are the primary variables affecting the economy
3) Economy grew 1.2 percent over first half of year vs 2.4 percent at and of 2024.


This is all from the report. I am surprised that any of this is controversial. There are no future predictions. This is the present.

 

[mille125]

You correctly indicated the WaPo report speculates on the "future economy".


Should we look at the economy in the future to validate this speculation? And if so when?

Or should we never do that and just keep speculating, without ever checking to see if the speculation pans out?

No...I said that the current immigration policies are not good for tight labor markets and will affect the future economy. I also said that the Friday jobs report reflected that the labor market is already weak. That was me, not WaPo.

Living in the presence what do you infer from the job's report that comments on weak labor, less economic growth, and stubborn inflation?

 

[hyperalgesia]

No...I said that the current immigration policies are not good for tight labor markets and will affect the future economy. I also said that the Friday jobs report reflected that the labor market is already weak. That was me, not WaPo.

Living in the presence what do you infer from the job's report that comments on weak labor, less economic growth, and stubborn inflation?

I would not be surprised if there is some weakness in the labor market, economic growth and stubborn inflation right now. Some of this may be due to tariffs. Some is certainly due to persistently high interest rates and lots of other factors.

Trump warned of short term pain for long term stability and prosperity. That's what I fully expect. My focus really is on the FUTURE. It seems like that is not your concern so...

 

[mille125]

I would not be surprised if there is some weakness in the labor market, economic growth and stubborn inflation right now. Some of this may be due to tariffs. Some is certainly due to persistently high interest rates and lots of other factors.

Trump warned of short term pain for long term stability and prosperity. That's what I fully expect. My focus really is on the FUTURE. It seems like that is not your concern so...

WaPo was about the present but the future should be all of our concerns especially as we deport people in a tight labor market.
Real estate and hospitality suffering mightily. Low foreign tourists. Tariffs haven't begun yet but when they do American businesses pay, the same businesses with no employees and higher supply and health care costs

I am glad that someone is optimistic and I hope it is for a solid reason and not just that Trump says so.

 

[hyperalgesia]

I am glad that someone is optimistic and I hope it is for a solid reason and not just that Trump says so.

I am basing my optimism partly on what Trump says.

What are you basing your pessimism of the future economy on?

 

[Ducttape]

Your numbers are so far off I don’t know where to start

And we are the top 1% and I sure pay above 30%.

so you have more than $11.6 million in net worth? congrats. i am nowhere close.

What Net Worth Puts You in the Top 1%, 5%, or 10%?

See how much net worth you need to join the top 1%, 5%, or 10% of Americans—and what it says about wealth, inflation, and Gen-Z’s financial future.

www.forbes.com

==
yes you do pay 30% not 22% or less.

because you are not in the top 0.1% with a private army of tax attorneys

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go ahead and calculate numbers, and post. either way, you must admit it is easier squeezing juice from a lemon over a lemon drop.

 

[cowboydoc]

so you have more than $11.6 million in net worth? congrats. i am nowhere close.

What Net Worth Puts You in the Top 1%, 5%, or 10%?

See how much net worth you need to join the top 1%, 5%, or 10% of Americans—and what it says about wealth, inflation, and Gen-Z’s financial future.

www.forbes.com

==
yes you do pay 30% not 22% or less.

because you are not in the top 0.1% with a private army of tax attorneys

---
go ahead and calculate numbers, and post. either way, you must admit it is easier squeezing juice from a lemon over a lemon drop.

To your point, the Uber rich have an army of tax attorneys who will effectively bend the system in their favor in ways regular folks can’t. Regardless of how you set up a progressive tax system, they will find a way to effectively minimize their tax burden. This will be the primary flaw in any “progressive“ taxation without a ridiculously simplified “flat” tax, the rich are going to preferentially find a way out of being taxed.

 

[mille125]

I am basing my optimism partly on what Trump says.

What are you basing your pessimism of the future economy on?

Thinking and planning off of something that Trump says is the biggest mistake you can make.

Most of the signs point to pessimism.

Multiple business owner that I know are saying that they cant get workers which makes sense.
Multiple real estate agents and hospitality workers are saying that very few foreigners are visiting and buying real estate which makes sense.
Inflation has not decreased
Tariffs will not help matters and history teaches that.


I could go on. The only positive effect that anyone has mentioned is that Trump told me so.

 

[hyperalgesia]

Thinking and planning off of something that Trump says is the biggest mistake you can make.

Most of the signs point to pessimism.

Multiple business owner that I know are saying that they cant get workers which makes sense.
Multiple real estate agents and hospitality workers are saying that very few foreigners are visiting and buying real estate which makes sense.
Inflation has not decreased
Tariffs will not help matters and history teaches that.


I could go on. The only positive effect that anyone has mentioned is that Trump told me so.

Ok now we're getting somewhere.

Would you like to revisit this topic in 3 months or so to learn from the assumptions we're making? Or would you prefer a year? 3 years?

 

[mille125]

Ok now we're getting somewhere.

Would you like to revisit this topic in 3 months or so to learn from the assumptions we're making? Or would you prefer a year? 3 years?

A big one that I didn't mention is the science and brain drain

Revisit at one yr and 3 yrs.

Both are necessary because there will likely be a new Congress at midterms who will likely thwart some of these effects. I expect one yr to be among the worst economic times since 2008.

 

[hyperalgesia]

A big one that I didn't mention is the science and brain drain

Revisit at one yr and 3 yrs.

Both are necessary because there will likely be a new Congress at midterms who will likely thwart some of these effects. I expect one yr to be among the worst economic times since 2008.

Ok will be interesting.

 

[Ducttape]

To your point, the Uber rich have an army of tax attorneys who will effectively bend the system in their favor in ways regular folks can’t. Regardless of how you set up a progressive tax system, they will find a way to effectively minimize their tax burden. This will be the primary flaw in any “progressive“ taxation without a ridiculously simplified “flat” tax, the rich are going to preferentially find a way out of being taxed.

To which I say that eliminating those loopholes is key to a more fair tax system, along with increasing resources for the IRS.

 

[mille125]

Ok will be interesting.

Whether you are a Trump fan or not, the next 3-6 months are critical.

Biden had a lot of issues. He was elected because he was not Trump and because of his foreign policy experience. When he messed up foreign policy in Afghanistan, that was really the end of his chances at reelection as he failed at his core strength.

Trump was elected simply because he was able to get people to think that he could help the economy. The tariffs and his other policies will kick in soon. If he fails, which I think is likely, it will be the end of his coalition and 2026 midterms will be a slaughter and he will have failed his core strength. Epstein will just be a side show.

There is nothing that has happened so far that remotely suggests that the economy is improving. If you think I am wrong, which you might, please let me know what indicator says otherwise. The recent jobs report support my stance.

The thing that really suggests that they wont fix the economy is that his current administration shows no ability to deal with reality. You cannot fix a large economy without adjusting. When bad news comes they discredit and fire the messenger (ie jobs report firing). You cannot be successful in this way.

 

[clubdeac]

Whether you are a Trump fan or not, the next 3-6 months are critical.

Biden had a lot of issues. He was elected because he was not Trump and because of his foreign policy experience. When he messed up foreign policy in Afghanistan, that was really the end of his chances at reelection as he failed at his core strength.

Trump was elected simply because he was able to get people to think that he could help the economy. The tariffs and his other policies will kick in soon. If he fails, which I think is likely, it will be the end of his coalition and 2026 midterms will be a slaughter and he will have failed his core strength. Epstein will just be a side show.

There is nothing that has happened so far that remotely suggests that the economy is improving. If you think I am wrong, which you might, please let me know what indicator says otherwise. The recent jobs report support my stance.

The thing that really suggests that they wont fix the economy is that his current administration shows no ability to deal with reality. You cannot fix a large economy without adjusting. When bad news comes they discredit and fire the messenger (ie jobs report firing). You cannot be successful in this way.

Here’s one indicator the economy is fine

And Biden was NOT elected bc of his prowess in foreign relations. Everything I’ve read including memos from inside the Obama administration knew he consistently was terrible with foreign affairs

 

[mille125]

Let's be clear Biden was elected because he was not Trump but his strong suit for most, especially the swing voters, was thought to be foreign affairs.

 

[mille125]

Here’s one indicator the economy is fine

And Biden was NOT elected bc of his prowess in foreign relations. Everything I’ve read including memos from inside the Obama administration knew he consistently was terrible with foreign affairs

View attachment 407521

You are kidding, right?

You put up one stock that is up 4 percent in last six months and that is your indicator for a good economy?

This is a joke, right

 

[mille125]

S&P is up 80 percent during Biden admin and up 8 percent this year.

What happened when tariffs were announced. It crashed and so did the bond market. I am sorry bur he is a buffoon and a fool.

As Obi Wan said, " Who is more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him"

 

[Agast]

You are kidding, right?

You put up one stock that is up 4 percent in last six months and that is your indicator for a good economy?

This is a joke, right

My single-stock portfolio is up 13% YTD and then I checked on my one Vanguard index fund and it’s down 0.16% YTD. That makes me really nervous about the overall path we are on. “Recovery” is not consistent across industries.

 

[mille125]

My single-stock portfolio is up 13% YTD and then I checked on my one Vanguard index fund and it’s down 0.16% YTD. That makes me really nervous about the overall path we are on. “Recovery” is not consistent across industries.

Go buy some gold man

 

[bubaghanush]

My single-stock portfolio is up 13% YTD and then I checked on my one Vanguard index fund and it’s down 0.16% YTD. That makes me really nervous about the overall path we are on. “Recovery” is not consistent across industries.

Okay are you going to tell us what the single stock is or just leave us wondering?

 

[Gauss]

My single-stock portfolio is up 13% YTD and then I checked on my one Vanguard index fund and it’s down 0.16% YTD. That makes me really nervous about the overall path we are on. “Recovery” is not consistent across industries.

if your index fund is anything other than S&P or total stock market, change it immediately

 

[Agast]

Okay are you going to tell us what the single stock is or just leave us wondering?

it looks like Nvidia and Broadcom are heavily skewed

 

[hyperalgesia]

it looks like Nvidia and Broadcom are heavily skewed

Reddit I think. When you get to the baller status of agast, putting a mil down on a long shot is nothing.

 

[clubdeac]

You are kidding, right?

You put up one stock that is up 4 percent in last six months and that is your indicator for a good economy?

This is a joke, right

You do realize the S&P is made up of 504 stocks , not just one. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Economists and investors have been predicting a modest return in the market over the next 10 yrs due to excessively high P/E ratios. This was before Trump took office. I hope you’re diversified

The economy is fine chicken little. The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.2% as of July. Wages are generally rising faster than inflation, boosting consumers' purchasing power. Certain sectors like healthcare and social assistance are experiencing strong job. The US economy is growing solidly, with consumer spending a key driver. Real GDP growth has been robust, outperforming other G7 nations. New business applications are at a record low. Inflation has slowed compared to its peak, although it remains a concern. The Federal Reserve has indicated potential rate cuts in the future, suggesting optimism about controlling inflation. Quit thinking emotional and start thinking rationally. You’re so partisan that you can’t see the forest for the trees

 

[mille125]

You do realize the S&P is made up of 504 stocks , not just one. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Economists and investors have been predicting a modest return in the market over the next 10 yrs due to excessively high P/E ratios. This was before Trump took office. I hope you’re diversified

The economy is fine chicken little. The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.2% as of July. Wages are generally rising faster than inflation, boosting consumers' purchasing power. Certain sectors like healthcare and social assistance are experiencing strong job. The US economy is growing solidly, with consumer spending a key driver. Real GDP growth has been robust, outperforming other G7 nations. New business applications are at a record low. Inflation has slowed compared to its peak, although it remains a concern. The Federal Reserve has indicated potential rate cuts in the future, suggesting optimism about controlling inflation. Quit thinking emotional and start thinking rationally. You’re so partisan that you can’t see the forest for the trees

I am much less partisan than most and I have voted Republican more than I have Democrat in my lifetime (but never for Trump). There is no Republican party left. I don't want the economy to crash but we have an administration that does not listen to adverse information. I don't think that is in dispute.

You can't win like that no matter what you are playing.

 

[mille125]

The only person who has been in both administration is Miller. Every former staffer says do not let him run anything. We didn't listen and I am not sure why.

Don't you think it's unusual for every former staffer to say no way. That is not even halfway true of any other administration.

The voting populace is just dumb. No other way to say it.

 

[Agast]

Reddit I think. When you get to the baller status of agast, putting a mil down on a long shot is nothing.

Nope, it’s my mom buying NVDA at $12/ share because Jim Cramer said he named his dog Nvidia

 

[mille125]

You do realize the S&P is made up of 504 stocks , not just one. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Economists and investors have been predicting a modest return in the market over the next 10 yrs due to excessively high P/E ratios. This was before Trump took office. I hope you’re diversified

The economy is fine chicken little. The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.2% as of July. Wages are generally rising faster than inflation, boosting consumers' purchasing power. Certain sectors like healthcare and social assistance are experiencing strong job. The US economy is growing solidly, with consumer spending a key driver. Real GDP growth has been robust, outperforming other G7 nations. New business applications are at a record low. Inflation has slowed compared to its peak, although it remains a concern. The Federal Reserve has indicated potential rate cuts in the future, suggesting optimism about controlling inflation. Quit thinking emotional and start thinking rationally. You’re so partisan that you can’t see the forest for the trees

I just saw this...Dude, with all due respect, what the hell are you smoking. Turn off Fox News and the Trump propaganda for one day. Trump gets away without getting fact checked but you don't.

Consumer spending is slowing significantly since Trump took office. It was 2.8% in 2024 and it will likely be below 2% by year end There was an acceleration in Q2 but it was still below 2024 pace. Consumer spending is going down because of increased debt, decreased savings, and all tariffs uncertainty.

Real GDP robust? Its like 1.7 percent and it actually contracted in Q1 because of the consumer spending issue I discussed above. Q2 was better because imports decreased mostly due to tariffs

US Healthcare job growth?? You are crazy. Even healthcare is slowing. There is still hiring but it is slowing compared to 2024

Unemployment of 4.2% I agree with which is up from 4.1%. But you leave out the earliest indicator of economic strain. That is the unemployment rate of black Americans. This is the first hint of economic strain and it always goes up early in a crisis. What is it now? It is 7.2% which is nearly a whole percentage point up from last year.. Some states like Michigan have 10% black employment rate. This is ominous.

Inflation for June is up to 2.7% from 2.4%.. Wages rose 5.1% for 12 months ending June 2024. They rose only 3.9% for 12 months ending June 2025.

In conclusion....economy is slowing considerably and tariffs haven't kicked in yet....This should get all of us significant worry....

I welcome anyone to fact check this as well as clubdeac spit out.......................

 

[mille125]

The one thing that has gone down is gasoline......but Trump wanted to deliver domestic gas production. At current prices that is not possible but at least we all pay less at least for now.

 

[Ducttape]

I just saw this...

I welcome anyone to fact check this as well as clubdeac spit out.......................

to save SDN some bytes, i deleted the statements in between, but i was just about to research those claims.

thanks for doing all of that data crunching.

and gas price at "the spooky little gas station in the middle of nowhere" (per my daughters) that i get gas from is exactly the same cost -$3.09/gallon - as on Jan 19th, 2025.

US gas prices: 2018 to December 2025

US gas price statistics including the average gas prices between 2018 and 2025, current average, most expensive state for gas and more.

www.finder.com

 

[mille125]

to save SDN some bytes, i deleted the statements in between, but i was just about to research those claims.

thanks for doing all of that data crunching.

and gas price at "the spooky little gas station in the middle of nowhere" (per my daughters) that i get gas from is exactly the same cost -$3.09/gallon - as on Jan 19th, 2025.


View attachment 407543

US gas prices: 2018 to December 2025

US gas price statistics including the average gas prices between 2018 and 2025, current average, most expensive state for gas and more.

www.finder.com

I agree that looks flat.

Was trying to give him credit for something

 

[Ducttape]

price of eggs.

tho that has been replaced with the soaring price of beef.

but then again in MAGA mindset, while he has "fixed" egg prices, he has nothing to do with beef prices, which are going up because of obama. or biden. or both.

 

[mille125]

All in all economy has not improved and there are many signs as I mentioned that it is going to acutely worsen

 

[hyperalgesia]

You guys are grasping at straws. One jobs report and you're giddy with excitement.

If Biden/Harris or whatever puppet had won, everyone's taxes would have skyrocketed, DEI would be the law of the land, the border would be wide open, sanctions on Syria would remain, we would continue to get screwed on trade, etc.

Forget the "economy", you should stick to "Epstein", that's your best story to beat Trump. Good luck!

 

[Ducttape]

not giddy, sad.


it is actually 2 jobs reports - the current one and the one revision for the past 2 months.

you are completely speculating.

what might have happened is the continued recovery of the US economy, and there is greater evidence for that as that is what had been happening for the past 4 years.



its sad seeing cult members sink deeper and deeper until they hit the bottom.

MAGA cult members end up digging in deeper and deeper until something breaks the crack. it is usually something that is antithetical to the reason for the cult.

in MAGA's case, it is that there is a deep state involved. the Epstein case may be that crack (as DJT is definitely involved).



addendum i should clarify to clarify that i mean that DJT was involved with Epstein, but not that he was involved in the heinous activities that Epstein committed.

 

[hyperalgesia]

not giddy, sad.


it is actually 2 jobs reports - the current one and the one revision for the past 2 months.

you are completely speculating.

what might have happened is the continued recovery of the US economy, and there is greater evidence for that as that is what had been happening for the past 4 years.



its sad seeing cult members sink deeper and deeper until they hit the bottom.

MAGA cult members end up digging in deeper and deeper until something breaks the crack. it is usually something that is antithetical to the reason for the cult.

in MAGA's case, it is that there is a deep state involved. the Epstein case may be that crack (as DJT is definitely involved).



addendum i should clarify to clarify that i mean that DJT was involved with Epstein, but not that he was involved in the heinous activities that Epstein committed.

MAGA is expecting powerful liberal elitists like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates to be trashed. Ironically Trump is protecting these people because they most likely just got caught up in the Who's who in NYC billionaires.

Trump is already known to consort with porn stars and the like. When will liberals get it through their thick heads that there is no sullying Trump?

So this effort is gonna backfire spectacularly as per usual.

 

[mille125]

You guys are grasping at straws. One jobs report and you're giddy with excitement.

If Biden/Harris or whatever puppet had won, everyone's taxes would have skyrocketed, DEI would be the law of the land, the border would be wide open, sanctions on Syria would remain, we would continue to get screwed on trade, etc.

Forget the "economy", you should stick to "Epstein", that's your best story to beat Trump. Good luck!

It amuses me that Trump his ilk to somehow imply that anyone who is diverse is unqualified. We are looking at merit only, right!!!

Look no further than Hegseth. What merit did he show? By far the least qualified secretary of defense in history. I The rest of the cabinet is equally laughable RFK jr, Gabbard, Noem. And they mention DEI? Its laughable.

Trump himself was a D student who only got into the places that he did because of his dad.

 

[mille125]

MAGA is expecting powerful liberal elitists like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates to be trashed. Ironically Trump is protecting these people because they most likely just got caught up in the Who's who in NYC billionaires.

Trump is already known to consort with porn stars and the like. When will liberals get it through their thick heads that there is no sullying Trump?

So this effort is gonna backfire spectacularly as per usual.

Trump cares about no one but himself. You can believe if the Epstein files put others in a worse light compared to him, he would have release it yesterday.

 

[Ducttape]

MAGA is expecting powerful liberal elitists like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates to be trashed. Ironically Trump is protecting these people because they most likely just got caught up in the Who's who in NYC billionaires.

Trump is already known to consort with porn stars and the like. When will liberals get it through their thick heads that there is no sullying Trump?

So this effort is gonna backfire spectacularly as per usual.

If Clinton or gates is guilty of pedo, then they need to be punished.

That's a cardinal difference between everyone and MAGA. Under no circumstance will MAGA ever punish Daddy Trump. And this is cult behavior.

But his not taking down the Deep State by releasing the files may crack the wall, because the basis for his support is the concept that he and he alone would take down the deep state.

 

[hyperalgesia]

If Clinton or gates is guilty of pedo, then they need to be punished.

That's a cardinal difference between everyone and MAGA. Under no circumstance will MAGA ever punish Daddy Trump. And this is cult behavior.

But his not taking down the Deep State by releasing the files may crack the wall, because the basis for his support is the concept that he and he alone would take down the deep state.

So now you're suggesting Trump IS guilty of pedo? You're all over the map and can't see reality.

If anyone was found to be a criminal, they would have been busted already. Now everyone is just looking for sketchy association. But I guarantee you it's gonna be worse for Democrats. I hope you're mentally prepared.

I personally don't care who partied with Epstein. This is a gossip fest at this point.

 

[psyduck____]

So now you're suggesting Trump IS guilty of pedo? You're all over the map and can't see reality.

If anyone was found to be a criminal, they would have been busted already. Now everyone is just looking for sketchy association. But I guarantee you it's gonna be worse for Democrats. I hope you're mentally prepared.

I personally don't care who partied with Epstein. This is a gossip fest at this point.

So now you're suggesting Trump IS guilty of pedo? You're all over the map and can't see reality.

If anyone was found to be a criminal, they would have been busted already. Now everyone is just looking for sketchy association. But I guarantee you it's gonna be worse for Democrats. I hope you're mentally prepared.

I personally don't care who partied with Epstein. This is a gossip fest at this point.

Lol you voted for the party of racists and losers. You had no morals to begin with.
FYI Trump said all this about his daughter. So tell us would you leave Trump alone with your daughter or your niece? You lot are seriously just a bunch of greedy losers.

All Donald Trump's creepiest comments about his daughter Ivanka

'If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her'

www.independent.co.uk

 

[psyduck____]

MAGA is expecting powerful liberal elitists like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates to be trashed. Ironically Trump is protecting these people because they most likely just got caught up in the Who's who in NYC billionaires.

Trump is already known to consort with porn stars and the like. When will liberals get it through their thick heads that there is no sullying Trump?

So this effort is gonna backfire spectacularly as per usual.

Republicans All delayed the vote to release the files while democrats wanted to release the files. Why would they do that if they didn't wanna defend any pedos? Any liberal would tell you they hate hate Clinton and say throw anyone who's associated with Epstein. You're nothing more than a loser who defends an egoistical criminal who doesn't care. You sold your soul to the devil and you will learn true pain. I'm tired of you subhuman trash that preach they care about healthcare and yet voted to defund Medicare and rural hospitals for the 1 percents.

 

[Ducttape]

the ones who are following the rule of law nowadays are the democrats.

Sorry to burst your bubble.


And I did not say that Trump was a pedo. I said that anyone who is/was a pedo should be appropriately punished. You are the one who seems to be concerned about this, or you would not have mentioned the possibility.

 

[Baron S]

Yesterday HVAC guy came over, did a few hours of work. Listed the charges as $0 and had me tip him $620. Not sure how long they'll get away with that but found it interesting!

 

[hyperalgesia]

Yesterday HVAC guy came over, did a few hours of work. Listed the charges as $0 and had me tip him $620. Not sure how long they'll get away with that but found it interesting!

He was undoubtedly committing tax fraud before this as well.

 

[Baron S]

He was undoubtedly committing tax fraud before this as well.

Surely, but upstairs unit is working great!

 

[Agast]

My handyman did some HVAC work, got paid in cash and the dude is giving him a discount on what sounds like a PRP injection in the knee ($800 instead of $1200)