Blade Opines on Money and Anesthesia

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Time to rebalance the portfolio.

When is it not? Nearly everybody should have a portfolio that is rebalancing on some annual or semiannual basis.

Once a year at least.

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I rebalance during major market fluctuation, up or down. We have been seeing this throughout May.

Today the market is down 2% and the DJI has lost all if it's gains since the start of the year.
 
People are flocking to gold and bonds for safety.

Gold is up 4%
 
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People are flocking to gold and bonds for safety.

Gold is up 4%


When everybody is heading one way, the smart play in the long term is usually the other way. Bubbles burst when everybody and their brother is buying because something is up so high. Similarly the end of a bottom is near when everybody seems to want out.

Contrarians to hugely popular sentiment have a history of performing very well in the investment world over the long haul.
 
When everybody is heading one way, the smart play in the long term is usually the other way. Bubbles burst when everybody and their brother is buying because something is up so high. Similarly the end of a bottom is near when everybody seems to want out.

Contrarians to hugely popular sentiment have a history of performing very well in the investment world over the long haul.

Exactly. Once we get below 12000... I'll start putting a little back into the market. Below 11000 alot more. @ 9000, I'm (almost) all in.
 
Exactly. Once we get below 12000... I'll start putting a little back into the market. Below 11000 alot more. @ 9000, I'm (almost) all in.

History has also repeatedly shown that trying to time the market is a bad idea. The safe play is to invest at a constant rate and not try to guess the bottom or the top.
 
True. Dollar cost averaging is the way to go...and a little common sense goes a long way.

Greece exiting the euro = bad
Spain having some serious problems = bad
Unemployment here is up again to 8.2% = bad
GDP down = bad

I'm sitting this one out for a little while.... 2% in one day is VERY telling.

Patience will be my friend. Not timing the bottom, but I do have some trigger points to start reentering.

NO SENSE in dollar cost averaging now, IMO. Not looking good... but it will pick up again.
 
When is it not? Nearly everybody should have a portfolio that is rebalancing on some annual or semiannual basis.

Once a year at least.

Or when predetermined threshholds have been met. Not quite there yet.
 
Or when predetermined threshholds have been met. Not quite there yet.

When? Another 3 percent down? Some say 1202 on the S and P. I'm buying just a little further down from here. 3 percent more. I'd like 5 percent just to be safe but I'll deploy cash at 1230 and more if we go below 1200 (s and p)

I believe the next technical support is 1202.
 
When? Another 3 percent down? Some say 1202 on the S and P. I'm buying just a little further down from here. 3 percent more. I'd like 5 percent just to be safe but I'll deploy cash at 1230 and more if we go below 1200 (s and p)

I believe the next technical support is 1202.

rebalancing bands: I use the 5/25 rule. e.g, if you are 60/40 stock bonds, if the market drops sell bonds when you are 55/45. Or if using multi asset classs investing say you have 10% REITs. rebalance back down to 10% if they become 12.5% of portfolio and rebalnce up when they hit 7.5% of portfolio.
 
Anecdotal. Was talking to a friend of mine the other day. CT Anesthesiologist. Golden schooling, name school, name residency, name fellowship, amazingly nice guy. I visited his house couple years ago, spent a week in OR with him.

At that time, 2009, he told me he was making $600,000+. Right in that range. Seemed like the dream job, PP, great hospital, respect, autonomy, great partners, covering 4 rooms with partners, FAST surgeons (1/2 time as other places I've shadowed to do CABG etc). He was HAPPY.

Cut to, 2012, a week ago, I was talking to him about my career dilemma etc. Mentioned that he was making $450,000 this year. I did a double take, what happened to 6 plus I asked? Had I heard that wrong. Nope, less reimbursements, hospital subsidy slowly going away. Bla bla bla. $450,000 is still bank, but, fairly, it's not $600,000.

Cut to 2020, when I'd graduate. His opinion is he'll be making ~$250,000, who knows what a new grad will be making. $250,000 is still a lot of money. but it's not $450,000.

And it's not $600,000.

This guy is the polar opposite of gloom and doom, as much as I am. He was trying to cut it straight to me, as a friend.

I don't like hearing that from a really great, straight shooting guy. About the profession. Thought I'd share. Blade's been calling this, with others, for the longest time. Frustrating. It's happening...

D712
 
Anecdotal. Was talking to a friend of mine the other day. CT Anesthesiologist. Golden schooling, name school, name residency, name fellowship, amazingly nice guy. I visited his house couple years ago, spent a week in OR with him.

At that time, 2009, he told me he was making $600,000+. Right in that range. Seemed like the dream job, PP, great hospital, respect, autonomy, great partners, covering 4 rooms with partners, FAST surgeons (1/2 time as other places I've shadowed to do CABG etc). He was HAPPY.

Cut to, 2012, a week ago, I was talking to him about my career dilemma etc. Mentioned that he was making $450,000 this year. I did a double take, what happened to 6 plus I asked? Had I heard that wrong. Nope, less reimbursements, hospital subsidy slowly going away. Bla bla bla. $450,000 is still bank, but, fairly, it's not $600,000.

Cut to 2020, when I'd graduate. His opinion is he'll be making ~$250,000, who knows what a new grad will be making. $250,000 is still a lot of money. but it's not $450,000.

And it's not $600,000.

This guy is the polar opposite of gloom and doom, as much as I am. He was trying to cut it straight to me, as a friend.

I don't like hearing that from a really great, straight shooting guy. About the profession. Thought I'd share. Blade's been calling this, with others, for the longest time. Frustrating. It's happening...

D712

Sorry, but I call it as I see it. The income will level out in a similar manner to ER medicine. In some respects, we will become more like ER docs in the sense of hospital or AMC employment, shift work, more delegation to others like CRNAs and of course, lower reimbursement.

The full transition will take another 6-10 years. The time frame depends more on ObamaCare (SCOTUS ruling at the end of June) and who wins the White House in November. We still end up in the same place ($300K) but I'm hoping later rather than sooner.
 
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Sorry, but I call it as I see it. The income will level out in a similar manner to ER medicine. In some respects, we will become more like ER docs in the sense of hospital or AMC employment, shift work, more delegation to others like CRNAs and of course, lower reimbursement.

The full transition will take another 6-10 years. The time frame depends more on ObamaCare (SCOTUS ruling at the end of June) and who wins the White House in November. We still end up in the same place ($300K) but I'm hoping later rather than sooner.

Blade, are you still advocating fellowships the way you have before?
 
Owning Gold as part of a diversified portfolio makes sense. You now have opportunity to buy Gold soon at under $1500 an ounce. I will be a buyer of Gold again at that price and all over Platinum at $1450 or less (could be this week).

Use common sense. Look at the long term value of US paper currency vs US Gold Coins or GLD as ask yourself which is a better way to hold cash. That's right CASH. MY Gold Coins are US currency just like your paper money but the US mint simply can't print all the Gold coin the Fed tells them to.

I purchased platinum at under $1400 an ounce this year. I added to my position. Gold will surge if the Fed pumps more liquidity into the market next week. I expect Gold to break $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year if Obama wins re-election.

With taxes rising greatly next year on investments and income the market may just go into severe correction mode in November rather than the usual Santa Claus Rally mode.

I expect Israel could also attack Iran if an Obama win looks likely this Fall. The strike would occur in October just weeks before the election.
 
By TATYANA SHUMSKY

NEW YORK—Gold climbed more than 2% as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report bolstered investor hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon prop up the economy with a third round of stimulus.

The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, rose $34.90, or 2.1%, to settle at $1,740.50 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the highest settlement price since Feb. 28, when gold settled at $1,788.40 a troy ounce.

U.S. employers added fewer jobs in August than economists had forecast, bolstering the view that the Fed would announce new easy-money measures following the central bank's policy setting meeting next Thursday.

"The jobs data is so dire that the window is wide open for the Fed to take action," said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division at the Linn Group.

Gold prices had roared to record highs on the back of the Fed's past accommodative measures, which triggered concerns about inflation and saw investors stock up on hard assets like precious metals.

At the time, investors also worried that the dollar would lose ground against foreign currencies, and purchased gold to guard their wealth against this risk.

"People need an alternative to dollars, they need an alternative to euros, and they get that with gold and silver," said Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, a bullion dealer based in New York.

The dollar eased against the euro, giving dollar-denominated gold futures an additional boost. The euro was recently up 1.3% at $1.279.

Gold futures are traded in dollars and become cheaper for investors who use other currencies when the greenback weakens.

"If we start debasing our currency again by printing more money...the dollar falls, the euro goes up and people start chasing a hard asset," Mr. Epstein said.

Elsewhere, spot gold traded in euros neared its all-time record high. Spot gold was recently swapping hands at €1,359.50 just shy of its Sept. 9, record of €1,359.90 a troy ounce.

The broad market euphoria left out no precious metal, with silver, platinum and palladium all following gold higher.

Platinum prices briefly traded above $1,600 a troy ounce, piercing the closely watched level for the first time since April. Platinum for October delivery, the most active contract, rose $9.90, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,596.30 a troy ounce.

Silver for December delivery rose 3.1%, or $1.014, to settle at $33.633 a troy ounce. Palladium for December delivery, gained $7, or 1.1%, to settle at $654.75 a troy ounce.

Write to Tatyana Shumsky at [email protected]
 
The one you enjoy doing the most

Oh, sure. But I mean within the context of this discussion. What fellowships make Anesthesiologists the most marketable going forward?
 
Oh, sure. But I mean within the context of this discussion. What fellowships make Anesthesiologists the most marketable going forward?

Doing a fellowship isn't about marketability. Markets change and the hot fellowship today might be a useless one tomorrow. Just remember that when you do a fellowship you will be expected to lead up whatever specialty you choose for the rest of your career.

You asked about pain and critical care in your post, these 2 specialties both have positives and negatives but most people who like one will be miserable doing the other. Don't worry about how marketable you will be in the future, do one that makes you happy, become an expert in that specific field and enjoy what you do. Money will come if you like what do you and if you are miserable, no amount of money will make you happy to do it.
 
rebalancing bands: I use the 5/25 rule. e.g, if you are 60/40 stock bonds, if the market drops sell bonds when you are 55/45. Or if using multi asset classs investing say you have 10% REITs. rebalance back down to 10% if they become 12.5% of portfolio and rebalnce up when they hit 7.5% of portfolio.

Dude. Great posts. I think you mentioned a rebalancing band before we took the recent dive. Kudos. :thumbup:

If we stay at this downward pace....
 
I expect a relief rally in December as a short term deal is reached. The market will likely get near 52 week highs. I'm a seller of volatile equities and funds for 2013. I'm moving into "Doze" style funds and investment style.

I think slow growth at best in 2013, tax hikes, more regulation and significant Medicare cuts to physicians going forward (grand bargain results in cuts starting in 2014).

My outlook for the country's future looks bleak. The strategy of solid, consistent, dividend paying stocks in the U.S. combined with good emerging market companies seems like a nice strategy. I will be using ETFs or Vanguard funds to invest going forward (already moved a good sum there). Doze is correct on that count as well.

As for my bond funds I'm sticking with Short term funds and maybe some intermediate funds for the next few years. I'm decreasing my stake in equities as part of my early retirement strategy.

I still like Gold, Silver and Precious metals under an Obama administration that will print as much money as Congress allows.

Real Estate looks good going forward as well both domestic and international. Again, being diversified here by using ETFs or Funds is wise decision.

Last but not least is an Iran vs Israel conflict in 2013. I'd say that is 50/50 and such a conflict will raise gasoline prices and depress the stock market. Israel isn't likely to win such a conflict.
 
260BDPA67I8G5_1T1FGBQ1_BT_L_LS.jpg
 
Blade, what fields in medicine do you think will make it out least scathed by the ACA over the next 5-10 yrs?

Plastic Surgery

Dermatology

Family Medicine/Primary Care

Ob/Gyn


Then the fields all start getting hit pretty hard:

Neurosurgery- Best choice for big money. Current median income of $750 gets cut to $450-500.

ENT- They can avoid Medicare and Medicaid for the next 5-10 years and still earn $350

Ortho- They get hit hard especially in high Medicare states. Think Ortho in Aspen or Vail rather than Ortho in Naples or Miami if you want to do well.

Optho- They get hit hard. Lifestyle is great but income gets cut.

Cardiology- EP specialists earn over a Million a year but i bet they get cut 60-70% over the next 10 years. General Cardiology takes a 30% hit as well.
 
Under a final Medicare physician fee schedule for 2013 released by the agency, family physicians, geriatricians, and internists will receive an overall payment increase of 7%, 5%, and 4%, respectively. The raise mostly takes the form of a separate fee for coordinating a patient's care for the first 30 days after leaving a hospital, skilled nursing facility, or certain outpatient services. Physicians can bill this service using 2 new billing codes, 99495 and 99496.

CMS will fund this raise for primary care practitioners by reducing reimbursement for many specialists. Most of the cuts fall below 5%, although radiation oncologists and neurologists will take a 7% hit. Not surprisingly, specialty societies have been quick to protest.


In a separate set of final regulations released November 1, CMS gave a green light to a Medicaid pay hike for primary care physicians that was mandated by the Affordable Care Act. The law raises Medicaid reimbursement for evaluation and management services and vaccine administration in 2013 and 2014 — but not beyond — to Medicare levels. Family physicians, general internists, pediatricians, and subspecialists related to these fields (eg, pediatric cardiologists) are eligible for the increase. The pay hike also applies to such physicians who participate in Medicaid managed-care plans.

State Medicaid programs have until year's end to put the rate increases into effect. Jeffrey Cain, MD, president of the American Academy of Family Physicians, urged states in a press release "to act quickly."

Dr. Cain also asked Congress to make Medicaid-Medicare parity permanent.
 
I expect a relief rally in December as a short term deal is reached. The market will likely get near 52 week highs. I'm a seller of volatile equities and funds for 2013. I'm moving into "Doze" style funds and investment style.

I think slow growth at best in 2013, tax hikes, more regulation and significant Medicare cuts to physicians going forward (grand bargain results in cuts starting in 2014).

My outlook for the country's future looks bleak. The strategy of solid, consistent, dividend paying stocks in the U.S. combined with good emerging market companies seems like a nice strategy. I will be using ETFs or Vanguard funds to invest going forward (already moved a good sum there). Doze is correct on that count as well.

As for my bond funds I'm sticking with Short term funds and maybe some intermediate funds for the next few years. I'm decreasing my stake in equities as part of my early retirement strategy.

I still like Gold, Silver and Precious metals under an Obama administration that will print as much money as Congress allows.

Real Estate looks good going forward as well both domestic and international. Again, being diversified here by using ETFs or Funds is wise decision.

Last but not least is an Iran vs Israel conflict in 2013. I'd say that is 50/50 and such a conflict will raise gasoline prices and depress the stock market. Israel isn't likely to win such a conflict.

The one issue with real estate if you are using REITs is if the interest rates go up, you can really get creamed with REITs. Same with the bond market. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball to predict when this will happen.
 
The one issue with real estate if you are using REITs is if the interest rates go up, you can really get creamed with REITs. Same with the bond market. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball to predict when this will happen.

REITs are not bonds. They can and do drop 50% over short time periods.
There is some funny business going on in the REIT market. As investors are desperate for yield and REITs are obligated to pay the lion's share of their profits as dividneds- Many companies that are not traditional REIT industries- (apts, office buildings, strip malls) are converting to a REIT structure-for the sole intention of boosting the company's market cap. THis may change their value as a diversifier in a portfolio.
 
I expect a relief rally in December as a short term deal is reached. The market will likely get near 52 week highs. I'm a seller of volatile equities and funds for 2013. I'm moving into "Doze" style funds and investment style.

I think slow growth at best in 2013, tax hikes, more regulation and significant Medicare cuts to physicians going forward (grand bargain results in cuts starting in 2014).

My outlook for the country's future looks bleak. The strategy of solid, consistent, dividend paying stocks in the U.S. combined with good emerging market companies seems like a nice strategy. I will be using ETFs or Vanguard funds to invest going forward (already moved a good sum there). Doze is correct on that count as well.

As for my bond funds I'm sticking with Short term funds and maybe some intermediate funds for the next few years. I'm decreasing my stake in equities as part of my early retirement strategy.

I still like Gold, Silver and Precious metals under an Obama administration that will print as much money as Congress allows.

Real Estate looks good going forward as well both domestic and international. Again, being diversified here by using ETFs or Funds is wise decision.

Last but not least is an Iran vs Israel conflict in 2013. I'd say that is 50/50 and such a conflict will raise gasoline prices and depress the stock market. Israel isn't likely to win such a conflict.

Stay short and high quality on your bonds.

-More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun. (I forget who said it)
 
FWIW, in this market (and mortgage rates), we are getting a second vacation home as a means to diversify and use it as short term rental income. Looks like the housing market has bounced off the bottom a little, but plenty of good property on sale.
 
FWIW, in this market (and mortgage rates), we are getting a second vacation home as a means to diversify and use it as short term rental income. Looks like the housing market has bounced off the bottom a little, but plenty of good property on sale.

What do you think will happen to residential real estate prices when interest rates rise (and they must at some point; mortgages can't sit at 3-4% forever) and the amount of home a family can "afford" drops because what they can "afford" is based on monthly payment and not home price?

This isn't the bottom of the market. The house you buy today for $X at 3.25% won't sell for $1.1X at 6-7% in 10 years. A couple decades ago, mortgage rates of 9% were good. These artificially low rates are tremendously distorting to home prices.

If you're buying a house to rent and have positive cash flow on it from day 1, great, but if you're buying now expecting it to beat inflation over the next couple decades (which is a tall order for real estate held long in the first place) I think you'll be disappointed. That doesn't mean you can't enjoy your 2nd home, and if this is a luxury property in a resort area the market forces may well be different. Real estate is all about location, of course.

Only my opinion of course. :)
 
I expect a relief rally in December as a short term deal is reached. The market will likely get near 52 week highs. I'm a seller of volatile equities and funds for 2013. I'm moving into "Doze" style funds and investment style.

I think slow growth at best in 2013, tax hikes, more regulation and significant Medicare cuts to physicians going forward (grand bargain results in cuts starting in 2014).

My outlook for the country's future looks bleak. The strategy of solid, consistent, dividend paying stocks in the U.S. combined with good emerging market companies seems like a nice strategy. I will be using ETFs or Vanguard funds to invest going forward (already moved a good sum there). Doze is correct on that count as well.

As for my bond funds I'm sticking with Short term funds and maybe some intermediate funds for the next few years. I'm decreasing my stake in equities as part of my early retirement strategy.

I still like Gold, Silver and Precious metals under an Obama administration that will print as much money as Congress allows.

Real Estate looks good going forward as well both domestic and international. Again, being diversified here by using ETFs or Funds is wise decision.

Last but not least is an Iran vs Israel conflict in 2013. I'd say that is 50/50 and such a conflict will raise gasoline prices and depress the stock market. Israel isn't likely to win such a conflict.

Does this mean you're going to bail on Apple before it hits 900? :D
 
What do you think will happen to residential real estate prices when interest rates rise (and they must at some point; mortgages can't sit at 3-4% forever) and the amount of home a family can "afford" drops because what they can "afford" is based on monthly payment and not home price?

This isn't the bottom of the market. The house you buy today for $X at 3.25% won't sell for $1.1X at 6-7% in 10 years. A couple decades ago, mortgage rates of 9% were good. These artificially low rates are tremendously distorting to home prices.

If you're buying a house to rent and have positive cash flow on it from day 1, great, but if you're buying now expecting it to beat inflation over the next couple decades (which is a tall order for real estate held long in the first place) I think you'll be disappointed. That doesn't mean you can't enjoy your 2nd home, and if this is a luxury property in a resort area the market forces may well be different. Real estate is all about location, of course.

Only my opinion of course. :)

Yep. I hear ya. I've been looking into this for some time now. There is a certain place in the Rocky Mountains I'm totally in love with. Been looking @ that particular housing market for 3 years now and I spend a good 5 weeks there every year. The rest of the time, it would be used as a rental property. The plan is to possibly retire there. It is a resort location with everything from skiing, to fly fishing, houses some of the best rapids in the US, tons of sunshine, close to red rocks for dirt bikes, etc, etc. Absolutely beautiful place that would get used a lot by us and people visiting the area (high short term rental location).

They say you should have 1 yrs. worth of $$$ in the bank. The rest should be invested. I'm OK with that, but I don't want to put it all in the market or in bonds. This is just another way to disersify and @ these rates, it's a good deal. I can do a 5 year @ around 2.5%. Not too shabby.
A bonus when selling the property is that any capital gains (assuming you get capital gains over 10 years) can be reinvested into buying another property.
Our CT surgeon has done very well with this strategy.

Location, location, location as they say. ;)

6597909793540041903.jpg
 
Stay short and high quality on your bonds.

-More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun. (I forget who said it)

I'm invested in the muni fund we discussed via PM. I hope the Democrats don't tax my muni bond income in 2013. I'm hearing rumors that my muni bonds may become taxable income:eek:
 
REITs are not bonds. They can and do drop 50% over short time periods.
There is some funny business going on in the REIT market. As investors are desperate for yield and REITs are obligated to pay the lion's share of their profits as dividneds- Many companies that are not traditional REIT industries- (apts, office buildings, strip malls) are converting to a REIT structure-for the sole intention of boosting the company's market cap. THis may change their value as a diversifier in a portfolio.

I hear you. I'm going with international real estate fund and 2 domestic funds/etf. One is the Vanguard REIT ETF which is quite volatile.
 
I'm invested in the muni fund we discussed via PM. I hope the Democrats don't tax my muni bond income in 2013. I'm hearing rumors that my muni bonds may become taxable income:eek:

My muni bond's rate of increase has gone up about 3 fold since the 'election'.
 
platinum-price-jan-15-2013.jpg




I still like Gold longer term. Remember, when I told you all to buy Platinum? Platinum was selling for $150 an ounce less than Gold just 6-8 weeks ago. Now take a look at Platinum:
 
That place is beautiful. More pictures will be expected when you find a place!

Well. It's a done deal. :D

Stole it (dude paid >70k more than I did just 2 years ago) + I received a 2.5% loan.
I'm really happy with my portfolio diversification.

Most recent pictures since I became a 2nd home ownner in my little peace of heaven.


Can you see my buddy skiing his way down the face of that bad boy?

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I figured you'd like this pic as I feel it's a great little spot for some down range target shooting....;) Noveske or a Scar would do the trick.


0-1_zps158ed1f4.jpeg
 

It is. We still have one rental property 30y @ 6.5% with a post-crash LTV that as of 5 or 6 months ago wasn't amenable to refinancing without taking $80K to the table. We've resolved to just go ahead and do it anyway later this year and get into a 15y @ ~3%, but if its appraised value goes up, it'll mean we have to take less to closing.

I still worry a bit about what will happen to home values when mortgage interest rates go up. But that seems likely to be at least a few years off, if the Fed can bet trusted.
 
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