Busier than ever...

[Ray D. Ayshun]

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This workforce projection from the government projects a shortage of rad oncs in metro areas by 2028. Compare to med onc which actually projects (and currently has) a surplus. This goes against the narrative you see on SDN and reddit, so is this projection incorrect? Or is the narrative wrong?

Here is the source if anyone wants to play around with it

Workforce Projections

View National Center for Health Workforce Analysis projections of the future supply of and demand for healthcare occupations. Projections were generated using some data from the period of the pandemic. See the “About this Dashboard” for more details about the projections.

data.hrsa.gov

View attachment 379828

I couldn't totally figure out how to wade into the data (I didn't try), but my first question is, how do they define an fte? According to the graph you showed there will be a 2-3% shortfall. In a separate thread, it noted that our median annual wRVU production is 9500. I'm 50% more productive than that, and for a doctor, I have a lot of free time. If the definition of 1 fte is median production then sure,, but there is no strictly clinical radonc with that production who doesn't have the capacity to get 2-3% busier.

 

[RickyScott]

I couldn't totally figure out how to wade into the data (I didn't try), but my first question is, how do they define an fte? According to the graph you showed there will be a 2-3% shortfall. In a separate thread, it noted that our median annual wRVU production is 9500. I'm 50% more productive than that, and for a doctor, I have a lot of free time. If the definition of 1 fte is median production then sure,, but there is no strictly clinical radonc with that production who doesn't have the capacity to get 2-3% busier.

9000 rvus if no other responsibilities is a part time fte.

 

[Ray D. Ayshun]

9000 rvus if no other responsibilities is a part time fte.

You're right. Found a survey in jco from 2019 suggesting avg wRVU for 1 fte radonc is around 12K. Even still, I'd say capacity there to not forsake your family and be 25-50% busier with proper clinical support. Whatever the case, a small projected shortfall can easily be handled as many of us who do this know. I was talking to 2 urologists this evening who were excited to both have the night off from their regular q2 call as they get a locums once a month. I said, sounds like every night of mine for the past 4 years. A metro shortfall of radonc is absurd.

 

[RickyScott]

You're right. Found a survey in jco from 2019 suggesting avg wRVU for 1 fte radonc is around 12K. Even still, I'd say capacity there to not forsake your family and be 25-50% busier with proper clinical support. Whatever the case, a small projected shortfall can easily be handled as many of us who do this know. I was talking to 2 urologists this evening who were excited to both have the night off from their regular q2 call as they get a locums once a month. I said, sounds like every night of mine for the past 4 years. A metro shortfall of radonc is absurd.

20k rvus is still 40-50 hrs per week. acr surveys, average radonc saw 250 new pts a year 15 years ago. Number is around 200 today.

 

[IonsAreOurFuture]

20k rvus is still 40-50 hrs per week. acr surveys, average radonc saw 250 new pts a year 15 years ago. Number is around 200 today.

15 years ago, some people were still defining their radiation fields with a china marker and prescribing to d1/2. Sim and planning were soo straightforward, it was easy to carry a high census, and with 36 fractions for breast and 40+ for prostate, very easy to keep the machine busy, too.

If the technology hadn't been so abysmally low tech, I'd almost be nostalgic!