chances at T10/20?

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I will be applying to MSTP programs this coming cycle and would like to know how reasonable my chances are at getting into a T10 or T20 school with my *average* MCAT and my lack of publications (at this point in time).

University: I go to a very well-known, public university with great research
MCAT: 517 (CARS really tanked my score... English is my second language)
GPA: 4.0
Research Hours: 540 hrs in one lab (15 hrs/week), 1900 hrs in another at 35 hrs/week (+ 2080 hrs during gap year after applying)
Publications: Currently drafting a first-author publication with my PI that we were asked to write (will not be ready before applications are due but will be ready by end of Summer and I will mention it in application); will be second-author on many papers by the end of the year (my PI will write about this in LOR); wrote and presented my honors research thesis and was awarded best presentation at the symposium
Leadership Roles: creator and instructor of a popular undergraduate course, head tutor for biophysical chemistry, program coordinator for an organization that mentors and tutors foster and homeless children
LOR: two of them are from very well-known Nobel Laureates I work closely with

I know this question is hard to answer, but is it reasonable to believe I am a good applicant to T10 schools? (assuming essays and other parts of the application are good as well)

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You are a good T10/20 applicant. Few applicants have a first-author manuscript. Your MCAT is below average for programs that care about that sort of thing, but it should not introduce much drag to your application.

I encourage you to seriously look beyond T10/20 institutions. As much as individual programs like to believe (and make you think) that they are better, MSTPs are quite similar in terms of quality and trainee outcomes. This is due in no small part to the collegial nature of MSTP directors and administrators. For the past quarter century we have had annual meetings where we share best practices and endeavor to improve physician-scientist training at all programs. We now have a monthly Zoom meeting to further our goals. We serve on external review boards for one another's training grants, and share our successful grants with each other. My point is that you can will receive high-quality physician-scientist training beyond the T10/20 institutions, and this training will allow you to match into the most desirable residency programs in the country. I encourage you to put considerations of scientific match, quality of life, location, and cultural fit above a dubious ranking system that not only can be manipulated but also does not take into consideration who you are and what you need.
 
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