With step 1 becoming P\F Jan 2022, I can easily see some class of 2023 students purposely delaying step 1 by a year for the purpose of getting a P/F score. Meaning that for residency programs in this cycle, they will likely receive a mix of scored and P/F step 1 apps. Do you think they will thus require step 2 scores before sending interviews out?
The class of 2023 is nearing the end of their M2 curriculum and they will be taking Step 1 soon. I suppose some schools have the option of taking Step 1 in M3 and if they do this after Jan of M3 they will get a P/F score. I don't think most will be in that situation. Thus there will be still a lot of scaled scores in circulation during your application season so your class effectively has a scored Step 1. This will have varying effects on applications depending on your field. For IM, if you look at the NRMP PD survey, you will see Step 2 CK is already a more important selection factor than Step 1. I don't think the class of 2023 will see a lot of programs will have an explicit requirement to have Step 2 CK prior to interviewing. That said, it will be an
unspoken requirement to have it before an interview is granted for IM. To speak from my experience, even a few years back a lot of competitive places didn't send an interview if Step 2 CK wasn't in the books yet. You have plenty of time to take it as most places end M3 by May-June and you have until September to take it. If Step 2 CK isn't in the books when you interview, the programs will most definitely be waiting for it before ranking you (which many IM places already do).
As for class of 2024, everyone will have a P/F score unless they're crazy and take Step 1 early (Jan of M2 year). I think at this point schools/individuals have had enough time to see this coming to where they
can effectively require applicants to have Step 2 CK prior interviewing. Again, it's not like applicants will not have time as there are a solid 5 months between M3 and when ERAS goes out. I think a lot of people are waiting to see what happens with C/o 2023 first before making that announcement. You definitely won't be ranked or considered favorably if you don't have the Step 2 CK by rank deadline (February of M4).
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In regards to other fields, I think what Dral points out is correct. Maybe for C/O 2023 if you kill Step 1, you may be able to slide in without Step 2 CK for some surgical subspecialty if you have all the other stuff like favorable away reviews, letters, research, etc. Otherwise, I think most applicants who want competitive fields will find a way to get Step 2 CK done before interviewing which will then effectively make that the standard moving forward.