Didn't Obama Fix Everything?

[docelh]

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Then actually it really does matter. Should the dollar fail and they refix the level of gold to a new fiat standard, you will be able to cash your gold in while your failed dollars will make nice crap papers for your puppy.

Allow me to clarify. Gold being re-asserted as sound money is ideal for everyone except those in control. They'll come up with some b.s. new fiat standard that shafts everyone, incl. gold.

Schiff is alright, but he was wrong on foreign stocks/bonds allocation. In fact, one may have followed Schiff into euro-denominated stocks and bonds.

Faber is about gold. That's pretty much it. From time to time, he likes certain Asian markets like Japan or Vietnam or whatever.

Jim Rodgers likes commodities and everything denominated in Chinese yuan.

There you have it, the Three Amigos.

 

[cfdavid]

Do you have a book recommendation for Faber? I know you've recommend a podcast or two of him, right?

He has a couple out there via Amazon, but I haven't read any.

What I find fascinating is to FOLLOW UP on his predictions. The guy really sticks his neck on the line. He does joke around a bit in interviews and won't, generally, allow himself to get pigeon-holed into specific #'s/levels/prices, but it's incredible how accurate he can be in calling short/medium term trends/changes in markets. I'm not sure I've seen him really f.ck up, but then again I haven't followed all of his calls either...

I keep telling myself I'm going to suck it up and subscribe to his newsletter, which is no longer "free"..

 

[cfdavid]

Allow me to clarify. Gold being re-asserted as sound money is ideal for everyone except those in control. They'll come up with some b.s. new fiat standard that shafts everyone, incl. gold.

Schiff is alright, but he was wrong on foreign stocks/bonds allocation. In fact, one may have followed Schiff into euro-denominated stocks and bonds.

Faber is about gold. That's pretty much it. From time to time, he likes certain Asian markets like Japan or Vietnam or whatever.

Jim Rodgers likes commodities and everything denominated in Chinese yuan.

There you have it, the Three Amigos.

I do think you're simplifying a bit, but whatever.

Faber will not hesitate to correct his predictions as unpredictable events change the scenario. I at least give him that, and he does it early enough such that if one WHERE following his advice with their own cash, they could also make the necessary changes, and hypothetically prior to getting burned. And, he gives reasons why he'll make a change in a call he's made.

Rogers does sound like a broken record at times, but I think it's mostly because he's such a long term guy that what most consider volatile changes in, say, commodities (a broad catagory to be sure, and he does specify his preferences), he ignores as "short term" market swings. Again, he's long term as in 5 or 10 years, which the average market watcher is not.

I think the take home point, though, is that one benefits, from reading and following some of these notable investors, mostly from developing an overall awareness of finance and investing (and investment vehicles). Not necessarily following any single individual's investment advice.

cf

 

[Narcotized]

Schiff is alright, but he was wrong on foreign stocks/bonds allocation. In fact, one may have followed Schiff into euro-denominated stocks and bonds.

I don't read Schiff or anybody else for specific get-it-now investment advice. I read and watch Schiff for bigger picture economic knowledge that would make anybody wiser in this era of media misinformation.

 

[PharmaTope]

In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem. From time to time we've been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people. Well, if no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else? All of us together, in and out of government, must bear the burden.

agreed

 

[cfdavid]

I don't read Schiff or anybody else for specific get-it-now investment advice. I read and watch Schiff for bigger picture economic knowledge that would make anybody wiser in this era of media misinformation.

Exactly.👍

And there IS a lot of misinformation coming from most of the mainstream media these days. Remember, guys, it's not just the establishment bankers that want to maintain the status quo, but senators whom have been in office for 20+ years, major corporations (including media), the list goes on, with exceptions ofcourse.

The fact that most people still get the majority of their information on world events from the mainstream "press" is probably one of the reasons we're still so far away from any real "change".

 

[Narcotized]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37189251

Unfortunately, it's a grand total of one guy in DC that understands. Maybe Ron Paul's son in Kentucky will bring the number to 2. It isn't rocket science. You borrow and spend more than you can ever pay back, then you have to either raise interest rates to attract the increasing borrowing needs (nothing more than growing a ponzi), or you print money to make up the difference.

In our economy of shambles, the choice of significantly raising interest rates won't happen. So we print... and print. And the dollar devalues to nothing. And gold and other fixed hard assets continue to rise in value while your cash purchasing power plummets. Like I said, it's not rocket science.

 

[cfdavid]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37189251

Unfortunately, it's a grand total of one guy in DC that understands. Maybe Ron Paul's son in Kentucky will bring the number to 2. It isn't rocket science. You borrow and spend more than you can ever pay back, then you have to either raise interest rates to attract the increasing borrowing needs (nothing more than growing a ponzi), or you print money to make up the difference.

In our economy of shambles, the choice of significantly raising interest rates won't happen. So we print... and print. And the dollar devalues to nothing. And gold and other fixed hard assets continue to rise in value while your cash purchasing power plummets. Like I said, it's not rocket science. But it does take at least a low basic level understanding of mathematics and a certain amount of honesty to tell the public. Our President, his administration, and the rest of Congress don't qualify on either of those 2 criteria.

Rand Paul just swept the Kentucky primary. Something like more Republican votes than any other in their primary history. Even surpassing the votes of Mitch McConnel.

The anti-incumbents have sent home a message. The people have had enough. There's a general distrust in government that spans, for the most part, most socioeconomic "classes".

So, the people have indeed spoken. This is going to send a message to the Republican party that USED to be that of fiscal conservatism, among other things.

One problem is that Rand Paul, and the like, are so anti-establishment that the backlash (if he get's to the Senate) FROM the establishment may be harsh (this may include marginalization by the media as we so often see during Presidential candidate debates). We'll see, but this is real change if the momentum continues, even amongst the Democrats. Out with the old and in with the new.

cf

 

[pgg]

So we print... and print. And the dollar devalues to nothing. And gold and other fixed hard assets continue to rise in value while your cash purchasing power plummets. Like I said, it's not rocket science.

I don't disagree with this as a long term prediction, but for individual financial planning, the near term seems at least as likely to see deflation, not inflation. We've already seen huge deflation in just about every fixed hard asset other than gold, which doesn't follow the laws of physics or rocket science because of emotional speculative buyers. Real estate, machinery, cars, boats ... tons and tons of the nation's wealth is tied up in that non-glamorous stuff, and prices have plummeted in recent years. Many people are desperate to sell, credit is hard to come by for many, prices dropped.

All this printing may not have a significant inflationary effect for quite a while. Banks borrowing from the government at 0% and parking that money in treasuries doesn't really change the money supply. If nobody's lending, interest rates could stay low (for a while) and inflation could be mild (for a while) ... and gold could drop (for a while).

How long is a while? That's the question rocket scientists can't answer. 3 years? 5 years? 20 years? I think we might be surprised at how long they can keep the music going.

Sure, there's never been a deflationary collapse of a fiat currency, and I don't think anybody really thinks the dollar will be the first.

I'm just saying that while I see the same macro trend that you do (printing --> inflation), predicting when it will happen is something harder than rocket science. Assuming that it will happen soon, or even in our lifetimes, could lead to some risky short term investments. Gold might hit $2000 in 2011 ... or it might see $300 again.

 

[Narcotized]

All this printing may not have a significant inflationary effect for quite a while.

I agree with you that prices have dropped as they should drop from a near collapse of the economy, but I disagree that printing hasn't has an inflationary effect. Printing has had a huge inflationary effect. Inflation is short for monetary inlation; growth of the money supply, which has roughly doubled in a sick short amount of time. It's effect is relative. Prices on everything should be in the toilet with our economy in shambles but have been greatly propped up by a huge inflationary effect of the ridiculous money printing.

I also agree with you that it's hard to know exactly when which effect will outweigh the other (economic price deflation vs monetary inflation).