Does AAMC publish data in difference in acceptance rates between students applying straight out of college versus gap year students ?

[PigsHaveWings]

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The attached MCAT/GPA grid by AAMC includes all applicants and indicates a 42% acceptance rate for all applicants combined.

We know that of the acceptances, 40% are fresh graduates, and 60% have taken gap years. Are there any data sets which give us a similar grid (mcat/gpa) for students applying straight out of college versus gap year students, is there a significant difference in acceptance rates between these 2 populations for equivalent mcat/gpa?

how about differences in acceptance rates between first time applicants versus second time applicants ?

@Goro @gyngyn @LizzyM @gonnif @candbgirl @EdgeTrimmer @KnightDoc @Catalystik

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

I only have what @KnightDoc calls N=1 but several of them.

 

[KnightDoc]

The attached MCAT/GPA grid by AAMC includes all applicants and indicates a 42% acceptance rate for all applicants combined.

We know that of the acceptances, 40% are fresh graduates, and 60% have taken gap years. Are there any data sets which give us a similar grid (mcat/gpa) for students applying straight out of college versus gap year students, is there a significant difference in acceptance rates between these 2 populations for equivalent mcat/gpa?

how about differences in acceptance rates between first time applicants versus second time applicants ?

@Goro @gyngyn @LizzyM @gonnif @candbgirl @EdgeTrimmer @KnightDoc @Catalystik

Excellent question, if I do say so myself!! 😎

Reapplicant Admit Rate

 

[Goro]

Does it matter? You apply to med school when you're 100% ready for it. BTW, gap years are becoming more and more common.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

That thread should be pinned.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

Does it matter? You apply to med school when you're 100% ready for it. BTW, gap years are becoming more and more common.

Didn't we discuss that to death a while back? 🙂

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

Does it matter? You apply to med school when you're 100% ready for it.

Correct, no Hail Mary passes. Same goes with MCAT (unless you have test anxiety and bombed).

 

[PigsHaveWings]

That thread should be pinned.

I agree that post should be pinned.

This post is where the legendary @KnightDoc transforms from a Padawan to a Jedi 😉

 

[KnightDoc]

Does it matter? You apply to med school when you're 100% ready for it. BTW, gap years are becoming more and more common.

I dunno -- does anything matter? Why tell us we are rejected until we are accepted? Does that matter? Why tell us 60% of applicants are not accepted each cycle? Does that matter? We apply when we are 100% ready. Why tell us what the median stats are at any school? Half of all matriculants are below those numbers. Do they matter?

Yeah, maybe as a first time or reapplicant, the numbers matter if they differ. BTW, your reference to gap years is a non sequitur. OP used it as an example of yet something else that doesn't matter that you experts make widely available to us. Nobody was asking how common gap years are, or whether they are becoming more so. 😎

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

I dunno -- does anything matter? Why tell us we are rejected until we are accepted? Does that matter? Why tell us 60% of applicants are not accepted each cycle? Does that matter? We apply when we are 100% ready. Why tell us what the median stats are at any school? Half of all matriculants are below those numbers. Do they matter?

Yeah, maybe as a first time or reapplicant, the numbers matter if they differ. BTW, your reference to gap years is a non sequitur. OP used it as an example of yet something else that doesn't matter that you experts make widely available to us. Nobody was asking how common gap years are, or whether they are becoming more so. 😎

Reminds me Public Forum debate my son did in HS and I judged couple of times 🙂

 

[PigsHaveWings]

I agree that post should be pinned.

This post is where the legendary @KnightDoc transforms from a Padawan to a Jedi 😉

I followed that post you referred me to and it was quite a lovely discussion between @KnightDoc @Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn @EdgeTrimmer

I found this one chart from AAMC which I have attached which will shed further light into this question .

Here are the numbers:

No of applicants per year= 49 k
No of acceptances per year = 20.7 k
Acceptance percentage = 42%

This attached chart from AAMC clearly illustrates that first time applicants outnumber repeat applicants by 75% to 25%. So there is clearly a much higher attrition rate after rejection in each cycle than what was projected in that thread.

Theoretically assuming that the highest number of application cycles is 3 for applicants, and assuming that all applicants have a 42% acceptance in each cycle , (both of which assumptions could be wrong), here is the breakup

First time applicants : 100
Get accepted in the first cycle : 42
Remaining applicants : 58

This 58 applicants will have to be split up into five groups and assuming a linear regression analysis-- we already know that the number of applicants (split into remaining 2 cycles) will be about 34% of the above , so we have to project a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. Have to select 52% to allow the total number of applicants in the second and third cycle to match up to 34% of the first time applicants.

1. give up after the first cycle-52% of 58 =30
2. apply second cycle and get accepted--- 42% of the remaining 28= 12
3. apply second cycle get rejected and dont apply again----52% of 16= 8
4. apply third cycle and get accepted---42% of the remaining 8---3
5. apply third cycle and get rejected--5

Thus, you can come to a number of 42+12 +3= 57 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will eventually get in.

This analysis is obviously fraught with a lot of pitfalls. Three of these glaring ones are using a maximum of 3 application cycles, assuming applicants have a standard 42% acceptance with each cycle and assuming a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. OUT OF THESE 3 assumptions, the most important statistic that would help is knowing the acceptance rate for first time applicants which AAMC has that information, but somehow does not want to reveal.

If you assume that the acceptance rate for first time applicants is higher at 50%, and for reapplicants is 40%, then that will mean 50+10+3=63 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will get in.

We are still not any closer to knowing the answer to my other question which is--- are students applying straight from undergraduate college as likely to get accepted as students who have taken a gap year with similar statistics. Could not get any information for that question.

 

[Goro]

I followed that post you referred me to and it was quite a lovely discussion between @KnightDoc @Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn @EdgeTrimmer

I found this one chart from AAMC which I have attached which will shed further light into this question .

Here are the numbers:

No of applicants per year= 49 k
No of acceptances per year = 20.7 k
Acceptance percentage = 42%

This attached chart from AAMC clearly illustrates that first time applicants outnumber repeat applicants by 75% to 25%. So there is clearly a much higher attrition rate after rejection in each cycle than what was projected in that thread.

Theoretically assuming that the highest number of application cycles is 3 for applicants, and assuming that all applicants have a 42% acceptance in each cycle , (both of which assumptions could be wrong), here is the breakup

First time applicants : 100
Get accepted in the first cycle : 42
Remaining applicants : 58

This 58 applicants will have to be split up into five groups and assuming a linear regression analysis-- we already know that the number of applicants (split into remaining 2 cycles) will be about 34% of the above , so we have to project a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. Have to select 52% to allow the total number of applicants in the second and third cycle to match up to 34% of the first time applicants.

1. give up after the first cycle-52% of 58 =30
2. apply second cycle and get accepted--- 42% of the remaining 28= 12
3. apply second cycle get rejected and dont apply again----52% of 16= 8
4. apply third cycle and get accepted---42% of the remaining 8---3
5. apply third cycle and get rejected--5

Thus, you can come to a number of 42+12 +3= 57 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will eventually get in.

This analysis is obviously fraught with a lot of pitfalls. Three of these glaring ones are using a maximum of 3 application cycles, assuming applicants have a standard 42% acceptance with each cycle and assuming a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. OUT OF THESE 3 assumptions, the most important statistic that would help is knowing the acceptance rate for first time applicants which AAMC has that information, but somehow does not want to reveal.

If you assume that the acceptance rate for first time applicants is higher at 50%, and for reapplicants is 40%, then that will mean 50+10+3=63 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will get in.

We are still not any closer to knowing the answer to my other question which is--- are students applying straight from undergraduate college as likely to get accepted as students who have taken a gap year with similar statistics. Could not get any information for that question.

I think that you are focusing on looking at the wrong thing. It's the applicant that matters not whether they take one Gap year 100 make it through college in one year for or 100.

What we are seeing in med school applications over the past decade or so is an arms race.

One needs stellar extracurriculars and stats in order to make it into medical school,. Those people who are excellent at time management can get into medical school without having to take a gap year. They can do it all.

Those people who can't do it all, but are still good and need just that last Gap year to finish off what they are missing can still get in if they have a good application.

Personally I would love to see a year's employment become a requirement for med school admission.

 

[PigsHaveWings]

I think that you are focusing on looking at the wrong thing. It's the applicant that matters not whether they take one Gap year 100 make it through college in one year for or 100.

What we are seeing in med school applications over the past decade or so is an arms race.

One needs stellar extracurriculars and stats in order to make it into medical school,. Those people who are excellent at time management can get into medical school without having to take a gap year. They can do it all.

Those people who can't do it all, but are still good and need just that last Gap year to finish off what they are missing can still get in if they have a good application.

Personally I would love to see a year's employment become a requirement for med school admission.

You are correct. That is the main thing that matters.

This was just a statistical exercise to answer 2 questions

how many people who initially apply will eventually land up in medical school --about 60% seems to be the answer.

should everybody take a gap year--- your subjective answer above is the best answer and philosophy we have at this point, since we cannot answer it statistically.