Dow posts worst Opening Day in 8 years

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BLADEMDA said:
Well I can tell you my portfolio would be a lot smaller today if I had invested all my money exactly as the experts said to do. Instead, I prefer to go to my full equity exposure once a true bear market sets in. This strategy has been the one to use since 2000 and would trounce the notion that the same asset allocation should be used in all market conditions. These days the computers dictate a lot of the exit from the markets so as valuations get stretched the best approach is to scale back equity exposure and wait for a better entry point. This has worked like a charm since 2000 and is my long term strategy. I'll probably vary my equity exposure by 10-15 percent based on market conditions and valuations.

It's fine to keep buying equities every month but it would also be fine to use some technical Analysis along with fair value analysis to determine equity exposure. Stocks are not cheap right now and some are very expensive. Historically, that has led to underperformance.

The investing gurus are using data prior to the entry of super computers, ETFs and regular investors being able to sell with the click of a mouse. I submit to you this has changed the way the market acts and the speed in which things now move. That's why you can see flash crashes and vast price movements in minutes. I agree it's hard to time the market but it's not hard to keep cash on the sidelines for bear markets especially when the current bull market is long overdue for a correction. I'm not advocating single stock selection but rather common sense investing based on valuation and basic technical analysis.
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Hey Blade, can you point me in the right direction on where to start learning about the technicals or some charts that show what's breaking down. Thanks
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-pod
 
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I'm liking where things are and are going with the market. Starting to see some nice buying opportunities. If it drops another 10% I may start to get delirious with all the good chances to buy.
 
Mman said:
I'm liking where things are and are going with the market. Starting to see some nice buying opportunities. If it drops another 10% I may start to get delirious with all the good chances to buy.
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Mr. Larry Fink thinks the market is going to drop another 10%. I agree with him. I'm looking to put a lot of money to work at sub 1700 S and P 500. I see the bottom at around 1600-1620 but I'll go in heavy at 1700 or so as I don't want to miss the bottom.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/prepare-for-stocks-to-fall-another-10-larry-fink.html
 
We were down 6% on the year as of yesterday, with the >2% today that puts us at roughly 8.39% down ytd.
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If everyone keeps their cool, this'll be the time to make some serious money once the markets bottom out- it'll be like 2008 lite.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Mr. Larry Fink thinks the market is going to drop another 10%. I agree with him. I'm looking to put a lot of money to work at sub 1700 S and P 500. I see the bottom at around 1600-1620 but I'll go in heavy at 1700 or so as I don't want to miss the bottom.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/prepare-for-stocks-to-fall-another-10-larry-fink.html
Click to expand...

I don't do short term predictions. I favor long term analysis. As stocks go down, the likely long term returns from a purchase go higher and higher. I can find stocks to invest in right now that should do good to great over the next 10-30 years. If the market drops another 10% I can find a ton of stocks that should do fantastic over the next 10-30 years. If it drops another 20%, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
 
I just qualified for my companies 401K, and plan on maximizing it and dollar cost averaging right into this cycle.
 
Here is what I don't get. You are certain the market is going down. 5%, 10%, whatever %, you are sure it's going further down. Why wait to make money? Short the market with a percentage of your portfolio (25%, 50%, whatever %) with stops to protect if your bias is wrong and the market turns around. When the market rallies, short the rallies until you believe there is a true bottom in.

With the rest of your portfolio, start averaging into long-term long positions for the eventual market recovery. That is, if you feel uncomfortable waiting for a bottom to start buying on the way back up.

VIX plays and short oil plays have been on fire since the first of the year, and will continue to do so until something drastic changes with the fundamentals of the global economy.

You can short stocks, sectors, or indices with options or ETFs. I prefer options as they behave predictably, and define the risk in advance. For day trades I use 3x ETFs, although the 1x and 2x are more forgiving and aren't at as much risk from the arithmetic vs geometric return differential if you hold them for more than a day.

I will occasionally take true short positions in companies that are headed for bankruptcy, but these are risky as there is no cap on potential losses for weird events that happen outside of market hours when your stops can protect you. (See Joe Campbell's KBIO story).

Define your acceptable level of risk for each and every trade before you take a position, and remember small profits are better than losses even if it means you occasionally miss out on big gains.

- pod
 
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periopdoc said:
Here is what I don't get. You are certain the market is going down. 5%, 10%, whatever %, you are sure it's going further down. Why wait to make money? Short the market with a percentage of your portfolio (25%, 50%, whatever %) with stops to protect if your bias is wrong and the market turns around. When the market rallies, short the rallies until you believe there is a true bottom in.

With the rest of your portfolio, start averaging into long-term long positions for the eventual market recovery. That is, if you feel uncomfortable waiting for a bottom to start buying on the way back up.

VIX plays and short oil plays have been on fire since the first of the year, and will continue to do so until something drastic changes with the fundamentals of the global economy.

You can short stocks, sectors, or indices with options or ETFs. I prefer options as they behave predictably, and define the risk in advance. For day trades I use 3x ETFs, although the 1x and 2x are more forgiving and aren't at as much risk from the arithmetic vs geometric return differential if you hold them for more than a day.

I will occasionally take true short positions in companies that are headed for bankruptcy, but these are risky as there is no cap on potential losses for weird events that happen outside of market hours when your stops can protect you. (See Joe Campbell's KBIO story).

Define your acceptable level of risk for each and every trade before you take a position, and remember small profits are better than losses even if it means you occasionally miss out on big gains.

- pod
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I would do that in a brokerage account, but I would take gains and be very careful. My money won't be allocated for another week or so and every month it will buy a fund which is quite balanced. I don't plan on actively managing my 401K at this point. I'm o.k. dollar cost averaging in my 401K. It's just not designed to trade.

I will look for major trends after I develop my brokerage portfolio but that isn't now. At the very least I'll put money into cash with a relatively low threshold (and have in the past), but I'm not sure how much trading I'll do. Probably not a lot.
 
You can do it brokerage or retirement if you have a retirement account that is truly self directed. Mine allows me to trade just like a brokerage account with the restriction of no margin. That means I can't short, and the only option I can trade is covered calls.

Since there is no margin, I have to wait for funds to settle before re-entering a trade after I stop out. It's definitely trickier because you have to watch out that you don't buy anything with unsettled funds.

That leaves short ETFs as the only vehicle for shorting the market. Safest is the 1x ETFs as they can be held for more than a day without worrying about creep.

-pod
 
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"So why not sit here and buy into weakness? Because stocks are more expensive than they were in 2011, and the Fed is no longer our friend."-Jim Cramer
 
BLADEMDA said:
"So why not sit here and buy into weakness? Because stocks are more expensive than they were in 2011, and the Fed is no longer our friend."-Jim Cramer
Click to expand...

I guess that settles it. Gotta start buying since Cramer is usually incorrect.
 
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I should point out that my question regarding why folks don't make money on the short side was aimed at those who actively invest and are waiting for a return of the bull market, not at those who take a hands off approach or are novice investors.

I have some accounts that are hands off. They are 100% cash until the nascent bear market runs its course.

One thing to be especially careful of if you go in short. Oil/ energy doesn't have much further before the bottom is in. Playing energy short now is very much like taking a bullish position at the top of the market, fraught with risk. As we approach the bottom there will be fast, violent reversals that can eat you up if you don't have protection in place. Short interest in energy went up massively at the end of 2015 and continues to increase. When you have so much interest built up on one side, the slightest move against that interest can result in a covering panic (short squeeze). If it happens on a weekend when the rest of the world is trading but the U.S. markets are closed, you can be royally, ummm, screwed.

Same thing can happen at the top of a bull market, the main difference being that, if you hold on to the bullish position long enough, you will almost certainly recoup your losses. Of course, in the mean time, you will have unrecoverable time value losses.

- pod
 
periopdoc said:
I should point out that my question regarding why folks don't make money on the short side was aimed at those who actively invest and are waiting for a return of the bull market, not at those who take a hands off approach or are novice investors.

I have some accounts that are hands off. They are 100% cash until the nascent bear market runs its course.

One thing to be especially careful of if you go in short. Oil/ energy doesn't have much further before the bottom is in. Playing energy short now is very much like taking a bullish position at the top of the market, fraught with risk. As we approach the bottom there will be fast, violent reversals that can eat you up if you don't have protection in place. Short interest in energy went up massively at the end of 2015 and continues to increase. When you have so much interest built up on one side, the slightest move against that interest can result in a covering panic (short squeeze). If it happens on a weekend when the rest of the world is trading but the U.S. markets are closed, you can be royally, ummm, screwed.

Same thing can happen at the top of a bull market, the main difference being that, if you hold on to the bullish position long enough, you will almost certainly recoup your losses. Of course, in the mean time, you will have unrecoverable time value losses.

- pod
Click to expand...

Over time the markets rise. That means that short positions (in total) have increased risk compared to long positions (in total).
 
periopdoc said:
I should point out that my question regarding why folks don't make money on the short side was aimed at those who actively invest and are waiting for a return of the bull market, not at those who take a hands off approach or are novice investors.

I have some accounts that are hands off. They are 100% cash until the nascent bear market runs its course.

One thing to be especially careful of if you go in short. Oil/ energy doesn't have much further before the bottom is in. Playing energy short now is very much like taking a bullish position at the top of the market, fraught with risk. As we approach the bottom there will be fast, violent reversals that can eat you up if you don't have protection in place. Short interest in energy went up massively at the end of 2015 and continues to increase. When you have so much interest built up on one side, the slightest move against that interest can result in a covering panic (short squeeze). If it happens on a weekend when the rest of the world is trading but the U.S. markets are closed, you can be royally, ummm, screwed.

Same thing can happen at the top of a bull market, the main difference being that, if you hold on to the bullish position long enough, you will almost certainly recoup your losses. Of course, in the mean time, you will have unrecoverable time value losses.

- pod
Click to expand...

Nobody knows nothing.
Going short means potentially unlimited losses. Not for the faint of heart.
Except for big oil, lots of energy companies are highly leveraged. If they can't service their debt, they go bankrupt. Which means their equity goes to zero.
Individual stock picking, sector bets, options, futures and shorts are almost always sucker bets for individual investors.

What did I do Friday when I hit a rebalancing band? sold some bond funds that were up, tax loss flipped and added to positions in International value and emerging markets.
Not happy about it, but staying the course. I also will purchase my annual limit of EE Bonds before month's end. If held a full 20 years they will pay 3.53% tax deferred and state tax free. They only make sense if held a full 20 years. Plan to add to my TIPs ladder next week at the ten year auction. IRA Brokerage account. Indicated yield today 0.67% real. Tips yields finally starting to look something other than terrible. Also plan to hold to maturity.
 
periopdoc said:
Here is what I don't get. You are certain the market is going down. 5%, 10%, whatever %, you are sure it's going further down. Why wait to make money? Short the market with a percentage of your portfolio (25%, 50%, whatever %) with stops to protect if your bias is wrong and the market turns around. When the market rallies, short the rallies until you believe there is a true bottom in.

With the rest of your portfolio, start averaging into long-term long positions for the eventual market recovery. That is, if you feel uncomfortable waiting for a bottom to start buying on the way back up.

VIX plays and short oil plays have been on fire since the first of the year, and will continue to do so until something drastic changes with the fundamentals of the global economy.

You can short stocks, sectors, or indices with options or ETFs. I prefer options as they behave predictably, and define the risk in advance. For day trades I use 3x ETFs, although the 1x and 2x are more forgiving and aren't at as much risk from the arithmetic vs geometric return differential if you hold them for more than a day.

I will occasionally take true short positions in companies that are headed for bankruptcy, but these are risky as there is no cap on potential losses for weird events that happen outside of market hours when your stops can protect you. (See Joe Campbell's KBIO story).

Define your acceptable level of risk for each and every trade before you take a position, and remember small profits are better than losses even if it means you occasionally miss out on big gains.

- pod
Click to expand...
If I weren't using my investment money to pay for school over the next two and a half years and actually had income from work, I'd certainly be shorting things and piling more money into the market the farther it goes down. Volatility is great if you know how to hedge.
 
Miami_Postbac said:
At what point did the market decide cheap oil was a bad thing for the economy and stocks?

10 years ago everyone thought that oil going up meant bad times for USA. Certainly that was the case in the 1970s and the 2000s. Cheap oil - as in the 1950-1970 and 1980-2005 has historically been associated with increases in real productivity and asset prices. Why is it bad that oil is tanking now?
Click to expand...
If oil tanks, the energy sector drops with it. Cheap oil isn't necessarily bad for the economy, but it's disruptive for the energy sector, as it will cause a lot of new industries (fracking and all of the associated processing, transport, and equipment industries) to tank, as well as the general energy sector to crumble. It's also a sign of weak global markets and demand, which means less foreign growth, and lower profits for domestic corporations that are increasingly doing business abroad. High oil price signals global growth and high energy needs, while low growth signals stagnation. Back in the day, the global markets were less important than the domestic one, so low oil meant people were spending more domestically, and the local economic engine would start up. But now China and other developing nations make up a significant chunk of the profits of multinational corporations that no amount of domestic uptick can compensate for.
 
There's a lot of noise in the market these days. NOISE. Ignore it all and stick to your investment policy statement. Have an asset allocation and re-balance when necessary. I don't take sector bets and instead decide to invest in the total market: Total stock market index, total intl stock index, and total bond market by Vanguard for my Roth and the Fidelity Spartan equivalents for my 403b. For details, you can google the "3-fund portfolio" which will link to a post by Taylor Larimore advocated by the Bogleheads. This policy works for me and allows me to spend as little time as possible on the details since I'm not trying to time the market or necessarily beat it. Also, one should note that market volatility is expected and a part of this game, but the overall direction of the S&P 500 since the 1930s has been up. That being said, there seems to be a buying opportunity, and since I plan to complete my 2016 Roth contributions with my next paycheck, I see that VTI and VXUS are on a slight discount. With roughly 30 years to go, these fluctuations in the market don't bother me much. Short term goal money is in High-Yield savings (1.05%). The rest is in the market.
 
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Mman said:
Over time the markets rise. That means that short positions (in total) have increased risk compared to long positions (in total).
Click to expand...

Agreed

dr doze said:
Going short means potentially unlimited losses. .
Click to expand...

Only if you short sell stock or sell naked options. Buying ITM puts (Delta >80) with a long expiration dates (1 year or so) allows you to short the market with limited, predefined risk.

Miami_Postbac said:
At what point did the market decide cheap oil was a bad thing for the economy and stocks?
Click to expand...

At the point that so much capital got tied up in oil exploration, development, and distribution. If an informal poll of my colleagues is any indication, the oil market of the last 5-ish years is pretty analogous to the housing market prior to the crash. These companies have massive, high-yield debt that is now worth fractions of pennies on the dollar. Who is holding the bag on these loans, and how bad will the effect be when it all comes crashing down? Banks are going to feel it, certainly my colleagues that were heavily invested in MLPs and are now going to have to postpone retirement are feeling it, mom and pop investor are going to feel it. Maybe it isn't quite as systemic as the sub-prime housing market crash, but it is a world of hurt for an already weakened economy.

-pod
 
periopdoc said:
At the point that so much capital got tied up in oil exploration, development, and distribution.
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I wouldn't call that the smart money.

Tesla is making the best consumer cars in the market, solar panels are getting cheaper every day, and high capacity batteries keep getting better.

Oil is a money losing proposition IMHO.
 
periopdoc said:
At the point that so much capital got tied up in oil exploration, development, and distribution.
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I have a hard time believing that so much capital is tied up in the Bakken oil fields that the implosion/collapse/consolidation of those companies will be a real drag to our economy.

Certainly not so much that it warrants comparison to the housing crash.

On a macro scale, burning the last of the world's easy-to-get foreign oil at $25 or $30 per barrel, while North America's oil reserves sit in the ground for later, seems to be a big win for the US. And a big loss to the Russians and OPEC, which I can't help but crack a small geopolitical smile at, just a small one, but a smile nonetheless.
 
pgg said:
I have a hard time believing that so much capital is tied up in the Bakken oil fields that the implosion/collapse/consolidation of those companies will be a real drag to our economy.

Certainly not so much that it warrants comparison to the housing crash.

On a macro scale, burning the last of the world's easy-to-get foreign oil at $25 or $30 per barrel, while North America's oil reserves sit in the ground for later, seems to be a big win for the US. And a big loss to the Russians and OPEC, which I can't help but crack a small geopolitical smile at, just a small one, but a smile nonetheless.
Click to expand...


The politicians want you to believe that the only issue is over-supply; but, many like me are skeptical of just the over-supply thesis and believe that a recession could be around the corner. Demand from China has fallen off a cliff and the data from our own government is less than truthful in many aspects. That's why the price of oil needs to stabilize before the market can rally.
Oil is a proxy for the health of the world economies and right now that's shaky at best.
 
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So, real unemployment/under-employment is around 9.9% and many of those who are employed have not seen a pay increase in years. The Obama economy has failed to get the USA back to pre-2008 levels due to increased regulation, higher taxes and the ACA.
 
chart


Yes, U-6 has gotten better but at 9.9% we are at typical levels seen during a recession. The FED has pumped trillions of dollars into the market which has propped up the stock prices but U_6 is still not good. So, Oil is a proxy for the thesis that the economy is slowing and heading into recession without any more easy money from the FED. Another rate increase or two raises the odds we actually do go into a recession.
 
urge said:
I wouldn't call that the smart money...

Oil is a money losing proposition IMHO.
Click to expand...

If by smart money you mean the massive pools of money that actually move the market, then you are correct. Smart money has been short oil for a long time now. There is still a lot of money being lost by retail investors, banks, and those who have significant bond exposure. There are folks in and nearing retirement who have no idea how much exposure they have to junk energy debt in their "safe" portfolio. Yields in these funds have to come from somewhere and the yield on good debt just hasn't been there. If there is a rush for the exit, and I think there will be, there is a world of hurt for folks who aren't diversified enough to tolerate the crunch.

That being said, oil is bottoming. Smart money will start taking long positions this year. I'll be there with them, but I think that won't happen until we see massive bankruptcies in the production and MLP sectors. Those are the clues I am watching for to go long.



pgg said:
I have a hard time believing that so much capital is tied up in the Bakken oil fields that the implosion/collapse/consolidation of those companies will be a real drag to our economy.

Certainly not so much that it warrants comparison to the housing crash.
Click to expand...

Certainly, I agree we aren't talking 2008 levels of exposure here. I mean the housing crash was a systemic issue. This will be more localized. Best I can tell the big banks have low single digit exposure, and the problems will be more with the regional banks. I think we are looking at more of an 80's S&L regional crisis type effect than a '08 style systemic crash.

I use the housing crash as an example because the cause is similar not because the outcome will be equivalent in magnitude. Still, could be a bigger hit on the economy than the level of exposure would suggest due to the pre-existing weakness in the economy.



pgg said:
On a macro scale, burning the last of the world's easy-to-get foreign oil at $25 or $30 per barrel, while North America's oil reserves sit in the ground for later, seems to be a big win for the US. And a big loss to the Russians and OPEC, which I can't help but crack a small geopolitical smile at, just a small one, but a smile nonetheless.
Click to expand...

I feel the same, and I'm pretty sure I hinted that this is my viewpoint earlier in this thread. Temporarily sacrificing the U.S. oil industry in order to prevent Putin from becoming a leader of a thriving economy is a worthwhile endeavor.



BLADEMDA said:
The politicians want you to believe that the only issue is over-supply; but, many like me are skeptical of just the over-supply thesis and believe that a recession could be around the corner. Demand from China has fallen off a cliff and the data from our own government is less than truthful in many aspects. That's why the price of oil needs to stabilize before the market can rally.
Oil is a proxy for the health of the world economies and right now that's shaky at best.
Click to expand...

China is lying through their teeth about the health of their economy, and until there are demonstrable and verifiable improvements, or Saudi Arabia decides to cut production, I don't see oil recovering significantly. The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge, and the Fed is playing politics with the interest rates. I think you correctly point out that this is as much a case of decreased demand (or at least a decrease in the rate of demand rise) as it is a case of overproduction.

-pod
 
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BLADEMDA said:


Oil will hit $20 per barrel this year. A few even think $10 per barrel is possible.
Click to expand...


Consensus expert opinions on near future oil prices are merely a function of the present price of oil and it's movement the last few months. If oil has been dropping the last 6-12 months, the consensus opinion will be that it will continue to drop. That's how it works. Those valuable opinions are almost entirely incapable of predicting a bottom. They just keep pointing down until after it's already gone up.

Say oil is $15 a barrel in November. Experts will then predict it will be between $5-10 within the year.
 
Mman said:
Consensus expert opinions on near future oil prices are merely a function of the present price of oil and it's movement the last few months. If oil has been dropping the last 6-12 months, the consensus opinion will be that it will continue to drop. That's how it works. Those valuable opinions are almost entirely incapable of predicting a bottom. They just keep pointing down until after it's already gone up.

Say oil is $15 a barrel in November. Experts will then predict it will be between $5-10 within the year.
Click to expand...


Regardless of the "bottom" in oil prices can't stay at $20 per barrel for long. But, $20 per barrel may cause quite a few bankruptcies in the industry which is the buy signal for energy related equities.
 
Historically there has been very low to negative correlation between the price of oil and the market. However, the lower the price of oil, the tighter the correlation. It's currently in the 90% range.

Wall Street is starting to bet on a fairly significant increases in oil prices this fall. Not high volume bets yet, but they are starting to head that direction.

The dividends on some of these oil stocks are getting pretty juicy.

-pod
 
This exercise, market-timing added about 50 basis points to annual performance after 1950--a useful amount, but not huge. On the other hand, every basis point counts.


The authors offer five suggestions for effective market-timing:

  1. Combine signals--one indicator will be insufficient.
  2. Include at least the two assets of stocks and bonds (and perhaps other assets).
  3. Have modest expectations.
  4. Act symmetrically (that is, use timing to overweight assets, as well as to lighten them).
  5. Don't be binary--don't turn assets completely on or off.

In summary, they write, market-timing can be one of many useful items on an investor's "shelf."

The key is NEVER be fully out of the market but rather lighten up as stocks become expensive and momentum begins to fail (circa 2014 for example) then over-weight stocks when they become cheap and sentiment is very negative (like we will see soon).
 
Saudis won't cut production, because their cutting production won't increase the price of oil to the degree to offset decreased units sold. There are too many competitors out there for Saudi Arabia or even OPEC to think their collusion will work anymore.

They are just trying to prop up production so they can make enough money to support the welfare state. If they cut production and income falls, their government will fail, and Iran will push more resources to support the proxy wars against Saudi Arabia. They just got $150 billion care of Obama, so they have the resources for serious mischief.

This is a very scary reality.

Which is why oil will remain cheap until competing oil producers go out of business (Russia, USA).
 
Miami_Postbac said:
Exports are about 13% of GDP. That's about in line with averages since 1980, slightly above. They're important, but not hugely so.

Oil and gas extraction is 200k US workers, or about .15% of total employment. If production drops to zero and you throw in associated industries - refinement, transportation, barrell makers - you maybe have .25% - and cheap gas makes consumers wealthier.

You're drinking the market's cool aid. Its a media machine that just comes up with facile retroactive reasoning for its audience. Its audience is not stupid - these are people with money to invest - but not particularly savvy people.

The textbook answer for a sharp fall in commodity prices is a stabilization of producer cost curves and increase in real cash balances of consumers. In essence, its like QE except it stabilizes instead of destabilizes producer cost curves.
Click to expand...
I wasn't saying the oil was the cause of the slump. It's just the metric by which you gauge one, as it is an indicator of demand for a lot of other things, since oil is used in the production of damn near everything, from plastics to pharmaceuticals to fuels. It also contributes directly via the energy sector, but there's much more to it than that.
 
BLADEMDA said:
This exercise, market-timing added about 50 basis points to annual performance after 1950--a useful amount, but not huge. On the other hand, every basis point counts.


The authors offer five suggestions for effective market-timing:

  1. Combine signals--one indicator will be insufficient.
  2. Include at least the two assets of stocks and bonds (and perhaps other assets).
  3. Have modest expectations.
  4. Act symmetrically (that is, use timing to overweight assets, as well as to lighten them).
  5. Don't be binary--don't turn assets completely on or off.

In summary, they write, market-timing can be one of many useful items on an investor's "shelf."

The key is NEVER be fully out of the market but rather lighten up as stocks become expensive and momentum begins to fail (circa 2014 for example) then over-weight stocks when they become cheap and sentiment is very negative (like we will see soon).
Click to expand...
That all sounds fine and dandy but when you consider that Netflix went up 7% and then down 7% today because they reached 75 million suscribers you start wondering if the market even makes sense.
 
Miami_Postbac said:
Assuming markets are rational has never been a smart move. They're not, and any walk down Wall Street will tell you the same.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_pe_ratio_forward_estimate

Markets appear to be a better buy than they've been in a while. I need tax writeoffs for 2015 - you can still do the whole IRA thing and take it against last year's income, right?
Click to expand...
It depends; not all IRA and related tax games are OK after Dec 31st. But traditional and SEP IRA contributions for 2015 can be made until April 15th 2016.

However, if you can afford to max out those pretax accounts, ideally you'd be doing that already, regardless of what the markets are doing ...
 
You should probably spend the $300 or whatever to talk to a CPA or have someone do your taxes.

If your income was all 1099 last year then your easiest angle is probably to max a SEP-IRA for the 2015 calendar year, and you have until April 15th to do that.
 
Miami_Postbac said:
Assuming markets are rational has never been a smart move. They're not, and any walk down Wall Street will tell you the same.
Click to expand...

I know.

That's my criticism to Blade's approach to the markets. The pro's don't know anything. Any attempt to make sense of the market is futile.

There are thousands of market analyzers, which individually might be right once in a blue moon. That doesn't mean any of them they know what they are doing.
 
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