So according to last year's hold list, how many SDN'ers on Hold got bumped onto the waitlist and offered an acceptance (A)? And how many people didnt (B). If SDN has enough samples:
Chances of getting accepted off the Hold list = A / (A+B) *100%
hooray for numbers.
Here is what last year's cycle was all about:
Seadweller75 Int: 3/21 Alt: 5/10
chinny34
gau232000
DrCurious
AnthonyNY Int:12/10? Alt: 6/9
Doctor Doodle07 Int: 12/ Alt: 6/9
Friend of Wild Tumor: Int: 3/6 Alt:6/8 (originally on Hold)
Mattypez: Int: 3/28? alt: 6/9
poifect: Int:2/17 alt:6/7
Zenster
cgjock80
Accepted off alternate list
dafade Int: 3/6 lnt: 4/18 Accepted: 6/11
Kriyaban Int: 2/2* Alt: 6/9 Accepted: 7/3
sonofschmillson Int: 1/10 Alt: 6/11 (hold late april) Accepted: 7/3
goldenhair Int: 3/20 Alt: 5/9?? Accepted: 7/3 withdrew 7/11
sugarpi45 Accepted: 7/3
dcarinci: Int: 3/5 Alt: 6/9 Accepted: 7/10
VivaPortugal Accepted 7/23
Withdrew
WildTumor: Int: 3/12 Alt: 4/30
purometal Int: 2/26, Alt: 6/8
samiam37
goldenhair Int: 3/20 Alt: 5/9?? Accepted: 7/3 withdrew 7/11
It looks like some people may have been put on the alternate list early. Otherwise it shows those who became alternates, and then got accepted or not. It's important to note that not every med school applicant is on SDN, so this sample isn't a totally true reflection of what happened.