Embrace the Madness - Hannibal WW Part Deux

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mightyrunner7 said:
Fair, but I'll just say I started that rabbit hole before Lucy's role reveal, and threadstate was pretty quiet. I had also made a promise to Santy to conduct some investigation on previous games
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Heh it wasn't meant to be that snarky, genuine question.
 
@Santygrass

Where’s your reads at? What are your thoughts on the game?
 
mightyrunner7 said:
No snark taken, I just hate day 1, so I tend to jump on tangents if possible. I have learned that day 1 interactions/conversations will eventually become valuable for pack reads, but it starts with blind chaos
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something from nothing uwu
 
Back to Lucy's offer to let us decide who they visit, I can't see any value in this. I think Lucy should announce who they plan to visit, to start gaining credibility in the role existing, but I don't see any strategic benefit in getting Lucy to visit certain players. I don't Lucy's visit target will have any impact on the NK
 
operation iraqi freedom -> will visit clem tonight
 
Zenge142 said:
That very short list of names makes me feel nothing.

What do you want to know, more specifically?
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I'm surprised lucy has a town lean on Clem. You I understand, genny makes some sense I suppose. Clem just surprises me.
 
potentialsheltervet said:
I'm surprised lucy has a town lean on Clem. You I understand, genny makes some sense I suppose. Clem just surprises me.
Click to expand...
Clarify this:

Do you find it surprising Lucy is town leaning Clem, or do you disagree with the town lean?

Because those are two different things and I’m not sure I know which you meant to imply.
 
Zenge142 said:
Clarify this:

Do you find it surprising Lucy is town leaning Clem, or do you disagree with the town lean?

Because those are two different things and I’m not sure I know which you meant to imply.
Click to expand...
I find it surprising lucy feels they have enough data to town lean Clem, and I also disagree with leaning him village
 
clem said i was town because he thought about it and it was obvious for him. it was a mess in the thread where he could've jumped in and taken a side or posted some nonsense that appears solve-y. a simple tr on me when i am town is against the mafia win con and gives him no credit and less appearance of solving
 
lucy. said:
clem said i was town because he thought about it and it was obvious for him. it was a mess in the thread where he could've jumped in and taken a side or posted some nonsense that appears solve-y. a simple tr on me when i am town is against the mafia win con and gives him no credit and less appearance of solving
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tldr i see no mafia incentive to approach that situation as he did, however he could be pocketing me in particular and i am conscious of this scenario but i won't value it too much atm
 
lucy. said:
clem said i was town because he thought about it and it was obvious for him. it was a mess in the thread where he could've jumped in and taken a side or posted some nonsense that appears solve-y. a simple tr on me when i am town is against the mafia win con and gives him no credit and less appearance of solving
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I'm following. Clem is Village because of a simple answer, but Zenge is also village, even though he provided significant questioning and analysis? I think you really just gave a village lean to people who believed you, and I would cautious that course, because believing you is NAI. A wolf is just as likely to believe your claim as a villager
 
mightyrunner7 said:
I'm not sure I'm following. Clem is Village because of a simple answer, but Zenge is also village, even though he provided significant questioning and analysis? I think you really just gave a village lean to people who believed you, and I would cautious that course, because believing you is NAI. A wolf is just as likely to believe your claim as a villager
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i believe it's most likely villager and i am basically explicitly doing that. i wouldn't have tr'ed clem if i didn't know him personally. zenge is showing more of their brain and mindset which is the easiest thing to read when experiencing new players you haven't played with before. genny posted something where they'd asphyxiate me just to see if my was real. i don't think mafia with tmi ever makes a post such as that
 
mightyrunner7 said:
I'm not sure I'm following. Clem is Village because of a simple answer, but Zenge is also village, even though he provided significant questioning and analysis? I think you really just gave a village lean to people who believed you, and I would cautious that course, because believing you is NAI. A wolf is just as likely to believe your claim as a villager
Click to expand...
This is where I would get into an argument with @samac about wolfy vs. noob.
 
Town : Zenge, Lucy

Mafia : Mighty , PSV


My guess is that probably 3 / 4 reads here are correct, but ima believe all of them are and refuse to give further explanation
 
mightyrunner7 said:
Okay, so I want to provide some more thoughts on the Lupin Rule:

1. Having a rule cover the first 5 players is pretty arbitrary. 5 players in a 10 player game is much different than a 20 player game. A more robust rule would be a certain percentage
2. I'm going to compare posting order against wolfiness in the last few games. Santy offered that wolfiness was in the bottom 3rd, and I will hypothesize wolfiness is actual most likely in middle 3rd (middle of the pack, to better blend in)
3. Pasta - out of the 16 players, a wolf posted 8th, 10th, and 14th. This means 2 in the middle and 1 at the end
4. Noob - out of 22 players, a wolf posted 6, 7, 11, and 22. So 2 in the front, 1 in the middle, and 1 at the end. Notably, there were still 0 wolves in the first 5 posters

There are obviously many more games to look at, but this post is already long enough

edit - finished the post
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Its arbitrary, yes. Its mainly used as something to use in the Chaos of Start of D1 to decide early pressure. It has some thoughts behind it but it becomes moot because of being overused (Even in a game the mafia was aware of it and waited until later to post).
So that's why I called out the inverse Lupin rule, which means that if we discard the five first posters, there should be a wolf in that group . By sheer numbers it should hold true, by more accurate because a wolf could be aware of the Lupin rule but no my drugs inverse lupi rule.
And also it was a good excuse to pressure someone into posting and get involved from the get-go .

And looking at your data, it only makes me Inverse Lupin Rule have more credit, I may actually be onto something here !!!
 
Zenge142 said:
This is where I would get into an argument with @samac about wolfy vs. noob.
Click to expand...

The secret is... Noob can also be wolves.

You just have to pick a noob brain apart differently tbh. Usually looking the approach they have is far more clear to do with noobs , so in my experience noobs tend to be more easier to read
 
mightyrunner7 said:
I'm not sure I'm following. Clem is Village because of a simple answer, but Zenge is also village, even though he provided significant questioning and analysis? I think you really just gave a village lean to people who believed you, and I would cautious that course, because believing you is NAI. A wolf is just as likely to believe your claim as a villager
Click to expand...

What do you think are reasons to be villagey? Is there someone who feels villagey for you or is near that ?

And also your diminishing Lucy's word here or not being fully aware of the reasons they said to trust Clem at least
 
Santygrass said:
Town : Zenge, Lucy

Mafia : Mighty , PSV


My guess is that probably 3 / 4 reads here are correct, but ima believe all of them are and refuse to give further explanation
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The mafia reads here is because my feeling threadwise is that those two are the more 'focused' against town solving , with focus on diverting/sowing doubts if I had to name it something. But I don't know if they really have equity tbh, so I'm more expecting it to be W/V even tho it could be that both are Wolves but we'll see
 
after further thought i’m gonna tr that guy with the hot james bond pfp
 
www.forbes.com

The Top 10 Jobs That Attract Psychopaths

Everyone I have ever worked with has, at some point, called another colleague or coworker "crazy." But does your job actually attract true psychopaths? In the book "The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success," Kevin Dutton explains that there are...
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

very trustworthy article, and after further thought, and hannibal tv quote, doesn’t that place you guys as #5
 
lucy. said:
www.forbes.com

The Top 10 Jobs That Attract Psychopaths

Everyone I have ever worked with has, at some point, called another colleague or coworker "crazy." But does your job actually attract true psychopaths? In the book "The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success," Kevin Dutton explains that there are...
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

very trustworthy article, and after further thought, and hannibal tv quote, doesn’t that place you guys as #5
Click to expand...

But what about #9 on the anti-list?

I'm more of a doctor that does surgery than a surgeon who is also a doctor anyway
 
I don’t know how to feel about Lucy’s claim but I’m not interested in voting there today.

I do agree with Zenge that the reveal was not handled in a way that’s consistent with SDN meta play.
 
Santygrass said:
Its arbitrary, yes. Its mainly used as something to use in the Chaos of Start of D1 to decide early pressure. It has some thoughts behind it but it becomes moot because of being overused (Even in a game the mafia was aware of it and waited until later to post).
So that's why I called out the inverse Lupin rule, which means that if we discard the five first posters, there should be a wolf in that group . By sheer numbers it should hold true, by more accurate because a wolf could be aware of the Lupin rule but no my drugs inverse lupi rule.
And also it was a good excuse to pressure someone into posting and get involved from the get-go .

And looking at your data, it only makes me Inverse Lupin Rule have more credit, I may actually be onto something here !!!
Click to expand...
Haha, I agree that the data gives more credit to inverse Lupin vs. Lupin, but the actual winner is the middle 3rd.

At risk of continuing the Lupin rabbit hole, the middle 3rd (rounding up) for this game is:
Stagg
SAR
Sporty
Santy

I'll assert we have at least 1 wolf in that group of 4. Based on gameplay so far, I find SAR least suspicious, and Santy most suspicious of that list.
 
Also. When I said that my role is clearing for me I mean it. Don't even bother tbh
 
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