Bigfrank,
I think you're right that Anesthesiology isn't any time soon going to get so competitive that an AMG truly interested in it won't match. The anesth RD at my sister's medical school in California said that even though most spots are now being filled through the match, about 30% of these are FMGs.
That being said, what about gaspasser spots being available in the scramble? I'm thinking about applying to rads, but if I don't match, I'd like to scramble into Anesth.
This past year ~50 positions were open in the scramble, a huge drop from the >140 spots available last year, and the many more available the year before that. If this trend continues, and it seems that it will, there might be only a handful of scramble positions open next year - or none at all.
I can't apply to a few Anesth programs as "backups" because of my current schedule, so my only hope is to scramble in.
Skip this paragraph if you're not interested in my schedule and why it will keep me from applying to Anesth straight-up; I include it only as a pre-emptive answer to a question I might get:
I took time off during my third year to do an abroad rotation, so now I'm stuck doing 3rd-year core clerkships until late September. I won't do my first rads rotation until October, so it'll be too late by then to pass a month of gas and get recs from it (most Anesth programs require 2 letters of rec from Gasmen).
I know: I screwed myself with my schedule, but I'm stuck in it now and there's no way out.
How do I know that I want to do rads when I haven't rotated in it yet? Simply: the hours and the money. That's it. (That's the same reason I'd scramble into Anesth if I can't make it to rads - you can call it the Dr. Cuts school of applying, if you like. Sorry to steal your philosophy, Cut Man, but I've finally seen the light courtesy of Dr. Polk.)
Appreciate your input, Bigfrank.