% getting into top 3 on rank list

[chichi]

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Hi,

I was wondering if anyone knew statistics on what % of ppl i get their #1 choice, on of their top two, top three, etc. I've heard something like 55% get their top, something like 70% get one of their top two and 80-85% top three.

thanks

 

[Fermata]

This depends on the school.

For instance, look at how ridiculous the rate of getting one of first three choices in the match at Johns Hopkins.

 

[ckent]

Yeah, the 80-85% of getting one of their top three choices is a figure being spouted by medical schools regarding all of it's students (students applying for ER, derm, radiology, etc are all included). I've never seen figures for medicine, but I can only assume that it's higher given that medicine programs are generally larger programs then other specialties and medicine is not considered as competetive as many other specialties. Most interns who I have met have told me that they ended up in either their number one or two choice. I'd still rank a few (I think that most rank at least 7) just to make sure that you match somewhere though. I've talked to several interns who only ranked 3-4 and did fine, but I've also heard stories about people only ranking 3-4 and having to scramble, so I'd just rank any place that you wouldn't mind going.

 

[Da Vinci2]

Some of the residents at my home program said they listed 3. Others listed 5-7. For most of them, they got their first choice. My home program is a mid to high tier program to give you an idea. Also, if you plan to rank your home program at all, you should at least end up at your own program, from what I noticed. I think unless you plan to rank all the top tier schools, you should be fine with your top, or top 2 choices, with the match. With that, I haven't heard of anyone matching into their #5 spot, for the ordinary bunch.

 

[cbc]

so it looks like whether one gets into a program is determined more by whether one gets an interview or not. looks like hop toad will be heading to mgh or brigham next yr.

 

[Hop Toad]

CBC- thanks for the vote of confidence, but there are 250 people that interviewed at BWH. So the verdict is not in at all. We'll see. I'm still going to rank 7 or 8 programs and hope for the best. They did say encouraging things, but how often have we heard that we should not count on those comments being a for sure match indication.

 

[ckent]

Yup, most of the top programs only rank 50% of that they interview. I imagine that when you are talking to students who ranked top tier programs such as MGH, BW, etc as their number one choice, you would find fewer then 80% getting their first choice. I don't know how most people end up getting their first choice to tell the truth since the math doesn't seem to add up for me either, with most programs only ranking 50-70% of candidates that they interview and programs ranking 2-3X the number of spots that they have. Somehow, it all works out for the less competetive programs. Maybe there is a self selection process that occurs with people who have a more successful interview being more likely to rank the program higher with a recipricol programs being more likely to rank them higher as well.

 

[exjersey]

ckent - I think your calculations may be off a bit. Most programs interview 8-10X the number of spots they have, so if they rank 50-70% of applicants, that works out to roughly 4-7 students ranked for each spot, which is consistent with NRMP data that shows that on average, programs of all specialties rank roughly 5 times the number of applicants as spots available. However, top programs (MGH, BW, UCSF, etc) probably only have to go down their lists 2-3X the number of spots they have in order to fill. I'd imagine however, that most good but non-elite IM programs have to go further down their ROL in order to fill. Damn, the system is so complicated and convoluted...

It's remarkable how little reliable data exists regarding this whole issue and how we have to rely on anecdotes and speculation to make sense of it.

 

[ckent]

Thanks for the info ex-jersey (though to be honest, I couldn't 100% follow what you posted; just goes to show you how confusing the whole process really is). Anyways, my anecdote is from talking to my PD, who told me that Maryland interviews ~300 students and ranks about 100-150. She told me that it's difficult for them to predict how low on their rank list they will have to go down for a program of ~30 interns. She also told me that most of the interns here were AOA which several interns and attendings have told me that they don't believe to be true, so I don't know who to believe anymore about this whole process. Everybody has a different system of selecting applicants I guess. Published data on this whole process would be very useful for applicants, I wish someone would compile info like avg class rank and board scores for each program so that we could have had some idea of how competetive we actually are for each program.

 

[chichi]

Here are my only ancedotes regarding these kind of stats.

At UC Irvine, the chief said they got 1200 interviews, interviewed 275, ranked almost all 275 (minus a couple people with extreme personalities they met at the interviews), then ended up going down to #150 on their list on average. Sometimes they stop sooner, sometimes they go further down. And they have 16 interns i believe, so that's roughly going down 9x the # they need.

At my interview at Scripps clinic the PD said that almost certainly you'll go to one of your top 5 for IM. He said don't even worry about anything past five.

Hope that's a helpful, but i agree with other ppl that there needs to be more hardcore published stats about this stuff. The fact that we need these bulletin boards to ask about relatively important information is disappointing.

Thanks for the replies, good luck to all you!

 

[exjersey]

ckent - regarding the info from your PD, the FRIEDA website reports that last year, U. Maryland interviewed 507 people for 41 intern spots (not sure if those are invitations sents or actual interviews). So using Maryland as an example. they might rank 300 people and go down to 200 to fill all their spots.

I think this means that if you really want to go to Marlyand and rank it #1, you have a great chance of matching as long as you are in that group of 200 applicants. This is why expressing interest and enthusiasm at interviews for the programs you're most interested in is so important, it may move you higher on program rank lists.

 

[ckent]

I stand corrected exjersey. This frieda website has some excellent information. Here is the info for Maryland:
http://www.ama-assn.org/vapp/freida/pgm/0,1238,1402321160,00.html

Here is a link to a the search engine in general:
http://www.ama-assn.org/vapp/freida/srch/1,1239,,00.html

This just reinforces my point though, about not knowing how so many people end up with their top choices. This suggests that since some 50% of applicants weren't even ranked, a lot of those applicants who had Maryland as their top choice aren't going to get their top choice.

 

[cbc]

I might be wrong, but I also suggest another contribution to this mystery. Did we forget the ppl who apply to 2 residency specialties, usually IM and a more difficult+desired specialty? The self selection can occur when applicants rank programs of the alternate specialty over most IM programs.

 

[JungleBoy]

Hey ckent, based on what you know about Emory, how far down their ranking list would you think they usually go? They have about 60 pgy 1 positions, and usually interview about 600 candidates.

 

[ckent]

Originally posted by JungleBoy
Hey ckent, based on what you know about Emory, how far down their ranking list would you think they usually go? They have about 60 pgy 1 positions, and usually interview about 600 candidates.

Sorry, I have no idea about Emory. I imagine that similar to my home program though, in that how far they go down their rank list is highly variable.