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Discussion in 'Pre-Medical - MD' started by BlackPuma, Jan 27, 2002.

  1. I just read I think from JAMA that by the year 2010, there will be a shortage of 20,000 doctors!!!!! woooooohoooooo <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" />

    now maybe if they stopped torturing us all the time!!!! maybe it will get easier on.....
     
  2. jargon124

    jargon124 Senior Member
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    Hey Watcha - that would be great if it turns out to be true, but I highly doubt it. At least in the US, there is a surplus of physicians that doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
     
  3. that is what they thought!! but I read that article yesterday!!!! wooooooohoooooo

    and I dont think it was JAMA...your right, that was a previous ASSUMPTION...they said with the new population growth figures...there is a HUGE deficit

    so please stop raining on my parade, ok?
    <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" />
     
  4. jargon124

    jargon124 Senior Member
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    Sorry about the rain Watcha - hehe. Well here's to hoping you are right! Cheers! :D
     
  5. jargon, that alcohol is NOT a significant source of thiamine....
     
  6. BME02

    BME02 Member
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    I guess this is great news for those of you who want to make a lot of money. It probably sucks for all of the people who will be receiving proper healthcare. But who really cares about providing care, as long as I get to drive a Benz, live in a rich neighborhood and can send my kids to an elite school where they get to interact with the "right kind of people".

    Lets hope this is true.
     
  7. brandonite

    Moderator Emeritus 7+ Year Member

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  8. bme, i hope it's true also.

    btw, less doctors probably means richer doctors, but it doesn't mean that people will be getting billed more or receive inadequate healthcare in any way. it doesn't HAVE to mean that, anyway. but like you i hope it does! <img src="graemlins/clappy.gif" border="0" alt="[Clappy]" /> :p
     
  9. JZZZZZZZs

    JZZZZZZZs Senior Member
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    Wow! 20,000. That seems like a pretty big shortage. I guess the viagra's working. :D
     
  10. dustinspeer

    dustinspeer Who's your daddy?
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    Dude, come on, that was a joke.
     
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  11. Street Philosopher

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    I agree with BME, unless he's being sarcastic. <img src="graemlins/laughy.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughy]" />

    I don't think # of doctors is the problem in health care, it's how you deliver that care to the people who need it. I do research on access to medicare and lots of people just don't utilize all the resources out there.

    I would also guess that another healthcare problem is the uneven distribution of doctors to certain cities/areas.
     
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  12. MacGyver

    MacGyver Membership Revoked
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    This data is just as dubious as the data that JAMA published a few years ago that predicted a physician surplus.

    The bottom line is that nobody really knows. At this point, the surplus/shortage is not sharp enough to measure accurately. So what you get is a borderline condition that could be interpreted as either surplus or shortage depending on the statistic probability confidence levels and other stuff you were supposed to learn in statistics.

    Besides, you know what will happen if there is some kind of surplus. They will simply expand residency slots magically and let even more FMGs into the United States. Theres no way they would think about expanding medical school enrollments.
     
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  15. yeah but mostly old people take viagra, and they're not doing it for the purpose of reproduction. so that won't and isn't contributing to any boom.

    secondly, the population boom is not definitely what's gonna lead to the "shortage" of doctors. that was just someone's suggestion for an explanation. that person meant that increasing the pop would lead to a relatively smaller number of doctors. but i don't think that will be the biggest contributor...i think the shortage will be due to less people wanting to becoem docs. there are only 35,000 applicatns this year. 10K less than last year. this trend could continue, and THAT would be the major cause.
    anyway, mostly i'm thinking that grandpa and grandma aren't gonna be bumping uglies in order to produce a child.

    so that comment makes no sense.


    but the other cavemen and I frequently smoke crack, so i could be wrong.
     
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  17. Street Philosopher

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  18. yippee-aayyyeeee. i was only curious...even if it wasn't citing actual facts, it still doesn't make any sense. not that it matters, i just wanted to see if i was missing something.

    PS. i said mostly old people, not only old people. geeeez louise :D

    pps. schoolboy that's a good point, but less applicants means less people want to be doctors. even though the number of applicants may never be below the number of available seats, it's still a factor, because that's less people going off to nonUS schools to become md's and come back and get residencies. that's just one example, but it illustrates that less interest in a profession always affects the number of professionals in that profession.
     
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  21. quentintarrantino

    quentintarrantino Junior Member
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    <a href="http://www.nejm.org/careerlinks/short.asp" target="_blank">http://www.nejm.org/careerlinks/short.asp</a>

    here is an entire piece on the NEJM website about a possibility of a physician shortage

    <a href="http://www.nejm.org/careerlinks/short.asp" target="_blank">NEJM Physician Shortage</a>

    Now the accuracy of these forecasts is anyone's guess. Also relates to the political slant of the more "mainstream" medical journals JAMA and NEJM.
     
  22. UCLA2000

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    20,000 physician shortage within 8 years?...that REALLY sucks for the medically underserved populations. I really hope that nobody is excited about the shortage...especially not future physicians.
     
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  23. quentintarrantino

    quentintarrantino Junior Member
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  24. brickmanli

    brickmanli Senior Member
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    But this raises an interesting question, if there's a shortage, it's to the med school's best interest to lower admissions standards (since less people are applying already), which could lead to an overall decrease in the level of patient care. So which is worse, bad doctors or no doctors? I personally don't think this is a serious problem, who knows what will happen in ten years, perhaps there will be another reorganization and new technologies which will compensate for the lack of doctors.
     
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  25. USeF

    USeF sunny L.A.
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  26. jargon124

    jargon124 Senior Member
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    Ok, I gotta reply to those who suggest it is inappropriate for future physicians to hope for a small physician shortage (20,000, if true, would still not be a huge number). That is a very romanticized, obsolete, and naive view if what a career in medicine is. I do hope that Watcha is right, and I don't see anything wrong with that. We are not talking about a mass shortage here. Health care delivery will not be compromised by a few less docs. Consider today's physician market (and yet, it IS a market), where there is a surplus of physicians in major metropolitan areas. Managed care rules these areas for precisely the reason that physicians are in no short supply. Has this contributed to the quality of health care? Come on. You need to separate the notion of "more docs=better care" - it is rarely the way it works in real life.

    I will be a physician in about 4 years - and I am going into medicine because I want to help people. If I wanted to make money only, I would have gone into business or law, where I would likely make a lot more money AND make it faster. That said, I do want to make a good living as a physician. As future physicians, we all need to pay attention to the economic conditions that pervade our profession - I don't want to be around to see what will happen if we ignore them. I'd go on, but it's early mornin' and I gotta shower.

    PS - I still don't believe the shortage figures. They are building new DO schools (don't get me started on this)and FMG's are still coming in at high rates - all this and there is NO shortage today! (I am not talking about under-served rural areas here...)
     
  27. BME02

    BME02 Member
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    I still say a shortage is bad. By definition a shortage means not enough. It does not mean less than there are currently. I haven't read the article, and probably won't because it is impossibel to predict things like this. It is about as useful as trying to predict the economy. A shortage does not necessarily mean that HMO's and other forms of health insurance will relinquish their control. I could also mean that the cost of healthcare rises and becomes a luxury. This does not mean that the increased cost will be carried over to physicians' pockets either. The HMO's will just keep stuffing theirs. Or we end up with a national heathcare system, and all of the "good" docs work privately and are paid by the patient.

    Good thing I am going into academic medicine and research. I won't be making money anyway.
     

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