That's a start, but I wouldn't say "that ought to do it." According to my college's premed advising office, about 5 - 10 of our applicants this year had a
LizzyM score of 80 or above. None of them got into Harvard. But we did have about a half-dozen people get into Harvard this year, including at least two people with LizzyM scores of ~72 - 73. (Neither were URMs.) In short, even though Harvard's entering class typically has an average of 3.9/36, it seems that most people who apply there with a 3.9/36 and strong ECs are rejected. This makes Harvard a reach school for virtually everyone. Probably even for most of the top 5% of applicants.
It is easy to explain this away by saying that most of the applicants with 80+ LizzyM scores who ended up being rejected had poor ECs or or were socially inept, but at least for the students at my university this wasn't the case. IMO, several of the 80+ applicants were very outgoing and had much more impressive ECs than the students who ended up getting accepted. The HMS admissions committee disagrees, of course, and that is what can make admissions at top schools appear so random: evaluating ECs and the other qualitative aspects of the application is inherently subjective.
tl;dr: Don't set your sights on a single school, especially one as competitive as Harvard. Only ~220 students a year are offered a seat at Harvard, but there are certainly a lot more than 220 superstar applicants applying every year. Even with a 4.0/40 and excellent ECs, you could still get rejected. I think the same principle applies to all of the top five med schools with varying degrees.