How long should the lock down last?

Started by deleted836128
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turkeyjerky said:
Yeah, no hiking is nuts.

I'm really getting sick of people crossing the street when they're still a block away from me (when I'm out running). The other day a lady with a stroller and two young children got off the sidewalk and moved into the middle of the road (where the speed limit is 40 mph and there's poor visual lines) I'll move off the sidewalk into the shoulder for people, but I'm not gonna do it when I'm 500 feet away...
Click to expand...
The best was the day I went into the grocery store with my scrubs on and a mask. With every move I made, people looked at me with horror in their eyes like I was zombie exuding contagious death, they parted like the Red Sea, a give me a direct line to all my favorite junk food sections. It was great.
 
GeneralVeers said:
View attachment 303720

I have one of these (don't ask). It would be great for mandatory mask laws at the supermarket.
Click to expand...
Can't remember if I posted this a couple weeks ago or not, but I got this at the beginning of the pandemic.
DmAwkgf.jpg
 
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Apollyon said:
No, the Gov made it a statewide executive order. If your Co Executive is taking credit for it, they're wrong.

I'm in Erie County, and our Co Executive certainly didn't mandate it. And, the governor has been interrupting TPIR, the news, and Jeopardy! quite enough.
Click to expand...

I know you meant NYS, but I was referring to TX.
 
Is there any guarantee that a vaccine will develop? What is the virus mutates or worse like Ebola, HIV, and many other viruses a vaccine can’t be developed. That last Middle Eastern Corona Virus and the Sars-Covid also have no vaccine. What will happen then? 12-18 months is a insane gamble and in less than two months the government has spent 2 trillion and the Federal Resreve will buy up to 10 trillion on its balance sheet till the end of the year (it only bought 4 trillion during the great recccession).

Also what does it matter if states open now anyway. If people are too afraid, things won’t go back to normal for a very long time. Many hospital and private doctors offices are running on red because they canceled elective operations and Covid-19 and people are too afraid to go to hospitals.

Honestly this virus will be our great depression (IMO). The unemployment is already getting there.
 
Nothing is guaranteed, but my understanding is that the virus has remained fairly stable in terms of mutations. From a natural selection standpoint, there aren't any real selective pressures to cause it to mutate. The virus is doing fine, spreading across the world like wildfire, and multiplying, as is. This would make it easier to develop one effective vaccine, at least in theory.
 
Tinyhandz said:
Is there any guarantee that a vaccine will develop? What is the virus mutates or worse like Ebola, HIV, and many other viruses a vaccine can’t be developed. That last Middle Eastern Corona Virus and the Sars-Covid also have no vaccine. What will happen then? 12-18 months is a insane gamble and in less than two months the government has spent 2 trillion and the Federal Resreve will buy up to 10 trillion on its balance sheet till the end of the year (it only bought 4 trillion during the great recccession).
Click to expand...

This is the problem with the moving goalposts. Initially it was "We have to flatten the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed". The vast majority of the country has done this. Then it was "We need to see cases dropping", again this is happening in most of the country. The drop is likely even greater, since we've rolled out increased amounts of testing and are finding more cases despite declining rates of infection. Now the NEW goalpost is "We need to keep lockdowns until we have a vaccine". This is shear insanity. You are locking down the country for a minimum of 12 months, and perhaps NEVER reopening!

There is no guarantee of a vaccine. Everyone is holding this up as a panacea, but all of the vaccine trials may fail. Furthermore the new panicky studies indicating that infection doesn't convey immunity to future infections would make developing a vaccine near impossible.

All of this to save patients who ~81 years of age with medical conditions. Nuts.

End the lock downs now!!!
 
GeneralVeers said:
I can't wait until they mandate us to wear masks at all time in public. Going to be an opportunity to wear some great neoprene numbers.....
Click to expand...

Already going on, more or less, in Northern CA. It’s not quite 100% all the time outside no matter what...but you have to carry it with you even if you go on a illegal hike at a state park.
 
bravotwozero said:
Nothing is guaranteed, but my understanding is that the virus has remained fairly stable in terms of mutations. From a natural selection standpoint, there aren't any real selective pressures to cause it to mutate. The virus is doing fine, spreading across the world like wildfire, and multiplying, as is. This would make it easier to develop one effective vaccine, at least in theory.
Click to expand...
Not worth decimating the economy. No way. This could inflict decades of pain and hardship on those that have yet to be born. Some of the 80 year olds have lived a good life. Its not like its near certainity the virus kills the elderly. Time to open yall. The virus is gonna spread lockdown or not. We accomplished what the lockdown was intended for which was not overwhelming the healthcare system.
 
Just curious. SARS-CoV-2 has killed ~53,000 in the past month (54,256 total deaths on 4/25/20 minus 1,260 deaths on 3/25/20). This is equal to the number of flu deaths in the 2018-2019 flu season and will likely match the 2019-2020 flu season mortality level (~62,000 deaths) in the next week (again, 6 months vs 1 month and a week), does anyone know where the goal posts are going to be moved to?

1. 2018-2019 flu data: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC
2. 2019-2020 prelim flu data: Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates
3. World-O-Meters SARS-CoV-2 US page United States Coronavirus: 960,651 Cases and 54,256 Deaths - Worldometer

Because just like Trump, the only thing the far right can do is move goal posts (see the evolving language about injecting disinfectant and internal UV light exposure. Was Trump sarcastic or asking a serious question to his industry guy? I mean... he used both excuses today).
 
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2.2 million Americans didn't die. Our hospital systems didn't "collapse like Italy." The virus is already 50 times more widespread than we thought with a fatality rate lower than we thought. Even hardest hit NY is now turning away extra hospital beds and America has such an excess of ventilators were sending them to other countries.

Unemployment and bankruptcies are mounting. People with real emergencies they already have are staying at home and dying because of a virus the might not even get and likely would survive. Soon, poverty will advance social decay resulting in increased alcohol & drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse and suicides.

It's time to gradually reopen the country and learn to live with this virus. If you're too afraid to do so because you can't accept a 99.4% chance you'll survive this thing, you need to quit your job, stay home and become a recluse forever. Because that's what it's going to take. The virus is not going away, ever. And it never was going to. Mutations (like flu) and anti-vaxxers (see measles) will make sure of that.

Economic suicide without end is not an option for most of us. If that's what you choose for yourself and your family, that's your right. The rest of the country is moving on without you, despite the risk and despite fear. Because we have to.
 
Siggy said:
Just curious. SARS-CoV-2 has killed ~53,000 in the past month (54,256 total deaths on 4/25/20 minus 1,260 deaths on 3/25/20). This is equal to the number of flu deaths in the 2018-2019 flu season and will likely match the 2019-2020 flu season mortality level (~62,000 deaths) in the next week (again, 6 months vs 1 month and a week), does anyone know where the goal posts are going to be moved to?

1. 2018-2019 flu data: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC
2. 2019-2020 prelim flu data: Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates
3. World-O-Meters SARS-CoV-2 US page United States Coronavirus: 960,651 Cases and 54,256 Deaths - Worldometer

Because just like Trump, the only thing the far right can do is move goal posts (see the evolving language about injecting disinfectant and internal UV light exposure. Was Trump sarcastic or asking a serious question to his industry guy? I mean... he used both excuses today).
Click to expand...

Goal posts will be moved and made even wider so we can go back in time to allow Scott Norwood to make the 47 yd field goal in SB XXV.

The goal posts will be moved so quickly we won't be able to find them.

Who knows where they will be moved.
 
Tinyhandz said:
Is there any guarantee that a vaccine will develop? What is the virus mutates or worse like Ebola, HIV, and many other viruses a vaccine can’t be developed. That last Middle Eastern Corona Virus and the Sars-Covid also have no vaccine. What will happen then? 12-18 months is a insane gamble and in less than two months the government has spent 2 trillion and the Federal Resreve will buy up to 10 trillion on its balance sheet till the end of the year (it only bought 4 trillion during the great recccession).

Also what does it matter if states open now anyway. If people are too afraid, things won’t go back to normal for a very long time. Many hospital and private doctors offices are running on red because they canceled elective operations and Covid-19 and people are too afraid to go to hospitals.

Honestly this virus will be our great depression (IMO). The unemployment is already getting there.
Click to expand...

Nope, no guarantee we will be able to make a vaccine that produces a powerful enough immune response for it to be effective.

We Might Never Get a Good Coronavirus Vaccine

It may have to be one of those kinds of vaccines that requires 1 main shot and 3 boosters over 3 months to get immunity for several years.
 
thegenius said:
Nope, no guarantee we will be able to make a vaccine that produces a powerful enough immune response for it to be effective.

We Might Never Get a Good Coronavirus Vaccine

It may have to be one of those kinds of vaccines that requires 1 main shot and 3 boosters over 3 months to get immunity for several years.
Click to expand...

Just imagine a scenario where a virus makes its way around the world, year after year, killing 1 in 700 people, every year, and people keep on getting re-infected with it over and over again.
 
Birdstrike said:
2.2 million Americans didn't die. Our hospital systems didn't "collapse like Italy." The virus is already 50 times more widespread than we thought with a fatality rate lower than we thought. Even hardest hit NY is now turning away extra hospital beds and America has such an excess of ventilators were sending them to other countries.

Unemployment and bankruptcies are mounting. People with real emergencies they already have are staying at home and dying because of a virus the might not even get and likely would survive. Soon, poverty will advance social decay resulting in increased alcohol & drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse and suicides.

It's time to gradually reopen the country and learn to live with this virus. If you're too afraid to do so because you can't accept a 99.4% chance you'll survive this thing, you need to quit your job, stay home and become a recluse forever. Because that's what it's going to take. The virus is not going away, ever. And it never was going to. Mutations (like flu) and anti-vaxxers (see measles) will make sure of that.

Economic suicide without end is not an option for most of us. If that's what you choose for yourself and your family, that's your right. The rest of the country is moving on without you, despite the risk and despite fear. Because we have to.
Click to expand...

Why can't we just stay in our homes and rely on monthly government checks, and weekly food and toiletry deliveries for the next 3 years?
:help:
 
Birdstrike said:
2.2 million Americans didn't die. Our hospital systems didn't "collapse like Italy." The virus is already 50 times more widespread than we thought with a fatality rate lower than we thought. Even hardest hit NY is now turning away extra hospital beds and America has such an excess of ventilators were sending them to other countries.

Unemployment and bankruptcies are mounting. People with real emergencies they already have are staying at home and dying because of a virus the might not even get and likely would survive. Soon, poverty will advance social decay resulting in increased alcohol & drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse and suicides.

It's time to gradually reopen the country and learn to live with this virus. If you're too afraid to do so because you can't accept a 99.4% chance you'll survive this thing, you need to quit your job, stay home and become a recluse forever. Because that's what it's going to take. The virus is not going away, ever. And it never was going to. Mutations (like flu) and anti-vaxxers (see measles) will make sure of that.

Economic suicide without end is not an option for most of us. If that's what you choose for yourself and your family, that's your right. The rest of the country is moving on without you, despite the risk and despite fear. Because we have to.
Click to expand...

You keep on repeating that figure of 2.2 million. You know that this was the projection without any intervention right? You also keep repeating it like we're past the pandemic.

Right now we've had 54,000 deaths despite shutting down the entire f'ing country.

Look up the Imperial College's projections again. (fyi they assumed an IFR of 0.9% and an asymptomatic rate of 40-50%) Look at the graph on the 2nd to last page and think about how our current trend compares to the green line.

Look, I also think we can begin thinking about ending general social distancing. However, I just don't get those of you who seem to think that this was either:
a) a massive overreaction
or
b) the intervention that already fixed the pandemic

We've probably had about 10 million cases so far. That means 97 percent of the population is still susceptible. We're not even close to being through this.

I do believe we should move towards ending the general shutdown and move toward a mitigation-based strategy w/ phased re-opening/re-closing cycles, but we sure as hell need a better strategy than wishful thinking.
 
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turkeyjerky said:
You keep on repeating that figure of 2.2 million. You know that this was the projection without any intervention right? You also keep repeating it like we're past the pandemic.

Right now we've had 54,000 deaths despite shutting down the entire f'ing country.

Look up the Imperial College's projections again. Look at the graph on the 2nd to last page and think about how our current trend compares to the green line.

Look, I also think we can begin thinking about ending general social distancing. However, I just don't get those of you who seem to think that this was either:
a) a massive overreaction
Click to expand...

It was an over-eaction. It was based on data presuming a fatality rate of greater than 1%. We now know that the likely fatality rate is more like 0.1%.

220,000 deaths is not worth shutting down the United States for.
 
GeneralVeers said:
It was an over-eaction. It was based on data presuming a fatality rate of greater than 1%. We now know that the likely fatality rate is more like 0.1%.

220,000 deaths is not worth shutting down the United States for.
Click to expand...

No no no no!! you got it all wrong.

We would absolutely would have had 2.2 million deaths if we didn't do anything. That's what that model showed.

We told everybody to hide, and now we are going to have 100-200K deaths, this year.
 
GeneralVeers said:
That didn't work great in Venezuela:
stream.org

Everyone Wants Toilet Paper. Why Doesn't Venezuela Have Enough? - The Stream

Bad things happen when the state tries to do what it can't do. Countries even run out of necessities like toilet paper.
stream.org stream.org

A vision of our future in month 12 during the lockdown while awaiting the vaccine.
Click to expand...

Thankfully toilet paper it not entirely necessary. We can use our hands. There are toilet paper substitutes as well.

Plus I think our government is many fold better than Venezuelan's government.

GV, there is absolutely nothing that could have been done to preserve our economic output during this outbreak. You could run this scenario hundreds of times and put a bunch of anti-science libertarians in government telling all of us to continue to work, it's just a hoax or a minor inconvenience. You could regulate CNN and have them not report on this part of the news. And it would all end the same way. Millions of unemployed and stock market loses of 20%.

Most people will scurry and hide anyway and not do a lot of non-essential things. Most won't go on cruises. Most will not go on airplanes. There are no mandates not to go cruising or fly, you can sign up for them right now. But there is very little of that. And when restaurants open up, they will be at 25% capacity for the next year, perhaps longer. If there was a NBA game right now there would be a few thousand people, not 30,000, in the stands at best. And it's going to continue to be like that until people feel safe. And they are not going to feel safe simply by saying "there is a 99.5% chance you'll live if you contract this" because most people will do the math and think 330,000,000 * 0.5% = 1.65M dead. I don't want to be one of those. And maybe I can lessen the chance if severely cut mass gathering activities. So no weddings, concerts, airplanes, cruises (especially cruises, jeez they are terrible...), conferences, etc.
 
GeneralVeers said:
It was an over-eaction. It was based on data presuming a fatality rate of greater than 1%. We now know that the likely fatality rate is more like 0.1%.

220,000 deaths is not worth shutting down the United States for.
Click to expand...
You're a surprising monday-morning quarterback. Could you clarify whether you believe that it was an overreaction in hindsight, or was obvious at the time.

I would check your math on the CFR. 0.1% of the residents of New York state have already died from covid.
 
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turkeyjerky said:
You're a surprising monday-morning quarterback. Could you clarify whether you believe that it was an overreaction in hindsight, or was obvious at the time.

I would check your math on the CFR. 0.1% of the residents of New York state have already died from covid.
Click to expand...

Yep 0.1% of the entire population is dead in just over a month.
 
thegenius said:
Thankfully toilet paper it not entirely necessary. We can use our hands. There are toilet paper substitutes as well.

Plus I think our government is many fold better than Venezuelan's government.

GV, there is absolutely nothing that could have been done to preserve our economic output during this outbreak. You could run this scenario hundreds of times and put a bunch of anti-science libertarians in government telling all of us to continue to work, it's just a hoax or a minor inconvenience. You could regulate CNN and have them not report on this part of the news. And it would all end the same way. Millions of unemployed and stock market loses of 20%.

Most people will scurry and hide anyway and not do a lot of non-essential things. Most won't go on cruises. Most will not go on airplanes. There are no mandates not to go cruising or fly, you can sign up for them right now. But there is very little of that. And when restaurants open up, they will be at 25% capacity for the next year, perhaps longer. If there was a NBA game right now there would be a few thousand people, not 30,000, in the stands at best. And it's going to continue to be like that until people feel safe. And they are not going to feel safe simply by saying "there is a 99.5% chance you'll live if you contract this" because most people will do the math and think 330,000,000 * 0.5% = 1.65M dead. I don't want to be one of those. And maybe I can lessen the chance if severely cut mass gathering activities. So no weddings, concerts, airplanes, cruises (especially cruises, jeez they are terrible...), conferences, etc.
Click to expand...

100%. And a college dorm and cafeteria is not much different than a cruise ship. The military actually has a no fly directive. Even Sweden which has a much laxer response and kept bars and restaurants open has closed all schools from middle school to university level and encourages people to work from home. If you have an outbreak in a meat packing plant or a nursing home or a dormitory or a navy ship, you can’t continue as usual. In many ways the decisions are made for us by the virus.
 
VA Hopeful Dr said:
And it helps that we know more about this thing now than we did a month ago.

I live in SC, and my hope is that when we start opening stuff again if we see significant increases in cases we can always back off again.

But admittedly these is no reason why we should all follow the NYC playbook as each state is different.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. NYC playbook is an abject failure but they had no choice because they let it get out of hand. Once it becomes that widespread, there is no choice but a mass shutdown.

States like South Carolina and Montana still have a chance to use the South Korean/Taiwanese playbook which is massive testing/contact tracing/isolation. I doubt they’ll do it in time though because ‘murica.
 
Start to open up locations based on testing patterns, hospital capacity, and overall resources over the next 2 weeks. We can't shut down the country indefinitely. Any life lost is sad but a certain number of deaths will happen. Society makes those compromises all the time without flinching. This situation is no different.

A one sized fits all approach won't work for the entire country and even certain larger states.

I agreed with the initial lockdowns because it gave us a chance to catch up to an extent. We were able to get a better sense of the disease process and locations were able to be better prepared.

Any vaccine is at least a year away. There is no magic bullet for this as of yet. People must learn to adapt and this is our new normal for the time being.
 
turkeyjerky said:
You're a surprising monday-morning quarterback. Could you clarify whether you believe that it was an overreaction in hindsight, or was obvious at the time.

I would check your math on the CFR. 0.1% of the residents of New York state have already died from covid.
Click to expand...
nimbus said:
Yep 0.1% of the entire population is dead in just over a month.
Click to expand...
As of the time of my response, there are 16,599 deaths in New York State attributed to Covid. The state population is 19.5 million.

That's 0.085%.

I think your point still stands. The number will likely surpass .1% very soon.

But if you are going to call somebody out for incorrect math, you should not rebut them with incorrect math of your own. We need accurate information posted here.
 
KGflyboy said:
As of the time of my response, there are 16,599 deaths in New York State attributed to Covid. The state population is 19.5 million.

That's 0.085%.

I think your point still stands. The number will likely surpass 1% very soon.

But if you are going to call somebody out for incorrect math, you should not rebut them with incorrect math of your own. We need accurate information posted here.
Click to expand...

Depends where you look. There’s about 5000 deaths that are probable but not confirmed.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
turkeyjerky said:
You keep on repeating that figure of 2.2 million. You know that this was the projection without any intervention right?
Click to expand...
His point stands. The 2.2 million estimate was not accurate. In the paper being referenced, they estimated deaths could be reduced by 50% if strict measures were taken. Our deaths are nowhere near 1.1 million, so either social distancing is way more effective than the authors thought it would be, or they grossly overestimated the number of deaths.

You may believe the discrepancy is attributed to social distancing having an unexpectedly profound positive impact, but I think the far more likely explanation for the discrepancy in the predicted deaths is that the initial number was an overestimate.
 
I still think there is a lot of people arguing when really they agree. No one is saying lockdown until vaccine. Few are saying open up and go back to business as usual. Most are saying gradually reopen as long as cases are under control as they are in most of the country. The key point is not to reopen to business as usual but to reopen with measures to keep the R down.

Maybe the R is 3 with business as usual. This means too many infections, too fast, meaning overwhelming the healthcare system. It’s probably around .7-.8 with lockdown measures, meaning cases will go down, but it would take a loooong time for numbers to get really low given how prevalent Coronavirus is.

What about some combination of reopening with public masking, limiting big gatherings, social distancing in restaurants/businesses, increased working from home where possible, etc. Maybe that gets you an R of 1.5, which would keep cases from spiking as much, keep healthcare from getting overwhelmed, and give you enough lead time to enact more aggressive measures if cases spike again. Quibble about the details, (now vs in two weeks, schools vs no schools, etc) but most people I think agree on the basics.
 
GeneralVeers said:
This is the problem with the moving goalposts. Initially it was "We have to flatten the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed". The vast majority of the country has done this. Then it was "We need to see cases dropping", again this is happening in most of the country. The drop is likely even greater, since we've rolled out increased amounts of testing and are finding more cases despite declining rates of infection. Now the NEW goalpost is "We need to keep lockdowns until we have a vaccine". This is shear insanity. You are locking down the country for a minimum of 12 months, and perhaps NEVER reopening!

There is no guarantee of a vaccine. Everyone is holding this up as a panacea, but all of the vaccine trials may fail. Furthermore the new panicky studies indicating that infection doesn't convey immunity to future infections would make developing a vaccine near impossible.

All of this to save patients who ~81 years of age with medical conditions. Nuts.

End the lock downs now!!!
Click to expand...

I'm not sure who you believe is advocating for indefinite lockdown. I don't know anybody who thinks we can maintain the current lockdown until a vaccine arrives in 12-24 months. My city (which has been fairly aggressive in locking down) has plans to start reopening in less than 3 weeks. Even the "communist state" of California's governor has discussed how to start transitioning out of lockdown with the understanding that it will be a "new normal" with likely usage of masks in public, limitations on very large events, etc. As far as normal business, most of it will open this spring.

I agree with you that the initial goal of the lockdown was to prevent collapse of the hospital system. And this goal has succeeded virtually everywhere besides New York City and New Jersey.
 
turkeyjerky said:
You're a surprising monday-morning quarterback. Could you clarify whether you believe that it was an overreaction in hindsight, or was obvious at the time.

I would check your math on the CFR. 0.1% of the residents of New York state have already died from covid.
Click to expand...

I think I've been pretty consistently against government-mandated lockdowns both before and during, so hardly "Monday Morning".

Also the 2.2 million was the worst case model, but the media picked up on it rather than present the other models, and whipped up hysteria among politicians and the public which led to hasty and destructive decisions.
 
I’m just glad I finally got a refund for my Rolling Stones tickets. The concert was listed as “postponed” until this week when it was finally cancelled. Now if only my daughter’s university would give a partial refund because online school is just not the same.
 
RoyBasch said:
I'm not sure who you believe is advocating for indefinite lockdown. I don't know anybody who thinks we can maintain the current lockdown until a vaccine arrives in 12-24 months. My city (which has been fairly aggressive in locking down) has plans to start reopening in less than 3 weeks. Even the "communist state" of California's governor has discussed how to start transitioning out of lockdown with the understanding that it will be a "new normal" with likely usage of masks in public, limitations on very large events, etc. As far as normal business, most of it will open this spring.

I agree with you that the initial goal of the lockdown was to prevent collapse of the hospital system. And this goal has succeeded virtually everywhere besides New York City and New Jersey.
Click to expand...

No end in sight in my state, despite being middle of the pack in terms of deaths/capita.
www.reviewjournal.com

VICTOR JOECKS: Sisolak hints coronavirus lockdown could last through June

Gov. Steve Sisolak doesn’t have a plan to open Nevada. But he’s rhetorically committed to extending the lockdown through June — and potentially much longer.
www.reviewjournal.com www.reviewjournal.com

We've achieved the primary goal. Our hospitals are all empty. We need to re-open.
 
nimbus said:
Depends where you look. There’s about 5000 deaths that are probable but not confirmed.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
Click to expand...

Yeah, I took my numbers from woldometer...

KGflyboy said:
His point stands. The 2.2 million estimate was not accurate. In the paper being referenced, they estimated deaths could be reduced by 50% if strict measures were taken. Our deaths are nowhere near 1.1 million, so either social distancing is way more effective than the authors thought it would be, or they grossly overestimated the number of deaths.

You may believe the discrepancy is attributed to social distancing having an unexpectedly profound positive impact, but I think the far more likely explanation for the discrepancy in the predicted deaths is that the initial number was an overestimate.
Click to expand...

That projection did nothing of the sort. They estimated a 50% reduction if we employed 'mitigation' strategy--eg elderly stay at home, closing schools and large events, and moderate social distancing.

That's not what we're doing.

We have employed a 'suppression' strategy, ie a "lockdown". This has, as projected, resulted in a marked flattening of cases at a relatively low rate.

Sorry, but I'm just so sick of this "2.2 million people didn't die, so it was all a hoax. Drink your bleach and keep on carrying on" schtick he has.
 
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turkeyjerky said:
Yeah, I took my numbers from woldometer...



That projection did nothing of the sort. They estimated a 50% reduction if we employed 'mitigation' strategy--eg elderly stay at home, closing schools and large events, and moderate social distancing.

That's not what we're doing.

We have employed a 'suppression' strategy, ie a "lockdown". This has, as projected, resulted in a marked flattening of cases at a relatively low rate.

Sorry, but I'm just so sick of this "2.2 million people didn't die, so it was all a hoax. Drink your bleach and keep on carrying on" schtick he has.
Click to expand...
I hear what you are saying. I just think the reality is somewhere in the middle. Would you agree that this projection was merely an estimate based on mathematic models early in the pandemic which involves some amount of margin of error? I mean... It's not like you can definitively predict these sorts of things with the level of preciseness one would like. We have to acknowledge that estimates like this are frequently wrong when analyzed retrospectively. We have no way of knowing for sure what would have happened had we not locked down.

2.2 million is a really high number. I don't know how that could have ever occurred. 2.2 million is 0.67% of our entire population. Based on the current mortality rate estimates, that would require virtually 100% of our population be infected. I suppose it is possible virtually everyone would have been infected, but I don't know how one can say with confidence that would have happened.

Ultimately i probably fall somewhere near the middle in how ready I am to open the country back up. Should new York open? I strongly feel that would be a bad idea. Should sparsely populated areas open with limits to group size and mask requirements in certain types of businesses? I think that's reasonable. Maybe you were. Maybe not.

I think most of us agree going from lockdown to open overnight is a bad idea. But I don't think letting people go into most businesses while wearing a mask and keeping as much distance as possible from others will result in a notable increase in cases. I think it's safe to allow that at this point.
 
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nimbus said:
I’m just glad I finally got a refund for my Rolling Stones tickets. The concert was listed as “postponed” until this week when it was finally cancelled. Now if only my daughter’s university would give a partial refund because online school is just not the same.
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There are class action lawsuits starting based on this in NYC (Cornell, etc). Look into it. That's tens of thousands of dollars they're ripping people off of, and these cases are going to win. College is expensive, and online degrees are not what most people signed up for! Plus, they're being denied access to on campus facilities they paid for. My advice is to join or file one of these asap.
 
DoctwoB said:
What about some combination of reopening with public masking, limiting big gatherings, social distancing in restaurants/businesses, increased working from home where possible, etc. Maybe that gets you an R of 1.5, which would keep cases from spiking as much, keep healthcare from getting overwhelmed, and give you enough lead time to enact more aggressive measures if cases spike again. Quibble about the details, (now vs in two weeks, schools vs no schools, etc) but most people I think agree on the basics.
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There’s a psychological hurdle that we will need to get over too. I have lots of extended family in town. We haven’t seen any of them in person for over a month, and won’t for a while. It’s “too dangerous”. When society gradually reopens, can we have my siblings and in-laws over for dinner? If it’s safe in a month, why isn’t it safe now? Conversely, if it’s dangerous now, why won’t it be dangerous in a month, or a year? I think the answer is that there’s no such thing as “safe”, only varying degrees of risk we learn to live with as social animals. We’ve been conditioned now to reject all risk. We’re going to have to have a family BBQ knowing one of us could be infected and could share it with all, and we’re going to have to just be ok with that. After the last 2 months of being told we must stay home and stay safe, that will be a high hurdle for many. And let’s not kid ourselves that more testing will change that, given that so many infected people can be asymptomatic or presymptomatic.
 
Staying locked down is no longer accomplishing anything and creating much damage. Quarantining the well, serves no purpose at this point. There's no point in bankrupting millions for BS orders no one is even following The roads in my city are teaming with cars. Those that want to remain recluses and go broke are free to do so. Reopen the states, reopen the country.

There's going to have to be a helluva lot more Reopen/Second Amendment rallies at Capital buildings asap because continuing this way is insane. You all are bitching about having your $300,000 salaries cut 20% when the rest of the country has seen their $40K salaries go to zero and below with indebtedness. Imagine being broke to begin with then having every last penny stripped away and replaced with bankruptcy, foreclosure and insurmountable debt. People are losing their life's work and life savings.

99.9% of America is not going to die from this virus.
 
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MHYDE said:
There’s a psychological hurdle that we will need to get over too. I have lots of extended family in town. We haven’t seen any of them in person for over a month, and won’t for a while. It’s “too dangerous”. When society gradually reopens, can we have my siblings and in-laws over for dinner? If it’s safe in a month, why isn’t it safe now? Conversely, if it’s dangerous now, why won’t it be dangerous in a month, or a year? I think the answer is that there’s no such thing as “safe”, only varying degrees of risk we learn to live with as social animals. We’ve been conditioned now to reject all risk. We’re going to have to have a family BBQ knowing one of us could be infected and could share it with all, and we’re going to have to just be ok with that. After the last 2 months of being told we must stay home and stay safe, that will be a high hurdle for many. And let’s not kid ourselves that more testing will change that, given that so many infected people can be asymptomatic or presymptomatic.
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Of course, and everyone will have set their specific threshold for risk. As you said, the goal is to limit risk rather then eliminate it. For your above example, id see my family but do an outdoor event where distancing is easy. I will see friends in small gatherings but masking while indoors. I’ll bring my kids to the park. I’ll send them to daycare. I probably won’t eat much at restaurants beyond a rare night out. I definitely will limit travel. That’s also why “opening the economy” isn’t a magic bullet. Consumption/spending and thus GDP and jobs will still be way down as people modify their behavior.
 
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