How long should the lock down last?

[Birdstrike]

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Yeah but the CASES. Didn't you hear about the CASES? The CASES are exploding! Whos going to be the bad guy and let people know it's because the riots/protests since a lot of places were open May 1st without issue.

...but like I told @miacomet, above. I don't know if they'll keep going down. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. I don't know. But we at least to deserve know what's happening, and get all the facts, not just the panic porn.

 

[GeneralVeers]

It's troubling to me that the news media is okay trying to extend/renew lockdowns and put millions out of work through their incomplete reporting of the numbers, and promotion of fear porn. At one point in time they actually wanted to be respected and felt a certain degree of obligation to protect the public's interest. Now it's just about ratings/profits and they don't care if what they report isn't the real picture.

 

[Birdstrike]

Can anyone explain to me why the non-lockdown states (IA, ND, SD, AS, SC) have similar or less COVD deaths/million than the lockdown states of MN, WI, MO

That’s a good question. Both MO and SC are about the same (both well below avg in deaths/M) but all the other of your strict lockdown states are higher up in deaths/pop and the free states are lower.

In fact, if you look at the rankings of deaths/capita, it seems pretty strongly correlated that those that locked down the strictest had the most deaths/capita and those freest, had the least.

Now, I don’t think you can concluded the lockdowns caused more severe outbreak. The lockdowns clearly started in response to the severity of outbreak. But it sure as hell doesn’t give you any confidence the lockdowns lessened the resulting severity of outbreaks in the end, as measured by deaths/population.

You’d like to see the exact opposite pattern: States that locked-down severely and quickly reduced infections and deaths, and ended up on the lower end of deaths per capita. Instead you see the opposite.

Again, it does not lead me to conclude locking down caused worsening COVID deaths. I don’t think it did. But it makes me highly suspicious that stricter lockdowns are not correlated with, and did not result in, less deaths per capita in the end.

The evidence clear that the strictest lockdowns did not result is those states being clustered at the bottom of the deaths per capita ranking. The evidence shows the opposite.

What’s the most likely explanation? That strict lockdowns weren’t effective in reducing deaths.

 

[Lawpy]

Yep. I've heard. And heard, and heard, heard, heard and heard again. 🙂

It's almost as if the media exaggerates negatives for ratings and cash while ignoring positives? Nah...

There's an old saying about the media that goes like this, "If it bleeds, it leads."

The media business model of profiting from bad news should change.

 

[GeneralVeers]

What’s the most likely explanation? That strict lockdowns weren’t effective in reducing deaths.

Correct. That should be the takeaway. Even though the "free states" are more rural, almost all have one or two medium sized cities with reasonable density comparable to many lockdown states. If the lockdowns were truly effective at reducing the death rates, then we should see a big statistical increase in deaths in the free states. Could it be that basic precautions taken by almost everyone BEFORE the lockdowns were all that were needed to slow things down?

 

[Birdstrike]

Correct. That should be the takeaway. Even though the "free states" are more rural, almost all have one or two medium sized cities with reasonable density comparable to many lockdown states. If the lockdowns were truly effective at reducing the death rates, then we should see a big statistical increase in deaths in the free states. Could it be that basic precautions taken by almost everyone BEFORE the lockdowns were all that were needed to slow things down?

I don’t know the answer. I’ve simply concluded that this virus is too contagious to contain, to make any drastic measures other than hand washing, sanitation, voluntary self-isolation (and maybe masks), worthwhile.

We, as a family, have decided to move on with life, while doing frequent hand washing, sanitizer and masks as needed (work, & Costco).

We’ve got my 14 year old in her first job working 25 hours per week at a water park and she loves it. My 11 year old is playing with friends, has been at the local game/skating rink and an outdoor play.

I continue to go to work, and my wife just started a job teaching yoga. We’re going out to the best steakhouse in town tonight and I’m running a 5K on Saturday. And my town has a boatload of corona right now.

There’s no guarantees we’ll stay corona free. We may get it. I think the majority of us eventually will. There’s no guarantee we’ll be totally fine if we get it, although the odds are in our favor (<50, healthy; kids <15, healthy). And we know many people that have had it now. All those under age 70 are totally fine. My parents, on the other hand, are >70 with health problems, are isolating still and I’ve told them I agree.

I could end up regretting this approach. It could backfire. But there is risk to living life to the fullest. We accept that.

That’s what we are comfortable with as a family. Others can continue to stay isolated as long as they feel comfortable. But either way, I don’t think there’s any way of stopping this thing. I wish there was.

That my opinion, anyways. Others likely disagree.

 

[Apollyon]

The media business model of profiting from bad news should change.

It's nothing new. Look at William Randolph Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer. And, from Don Henley in 1982,

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blond
Who comes on at five
She can tell you 'bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye
It's interesting when people die
Give us dirty laundry

 

[WilcoWorld]

Doonesbury and Don Henley, you've gotta hand it to him - @Apollyon can pull out some great pop culture references.

 

[Apollyon]

Doonesbury and Don Henley, you've gotta hand it to him - @Apollyon can pull out some great pop culture references.

Brother, I'm stuck in the 80s.



(Yeah, I know - close enough!)

 

[doctalaughs]

I don’t know the answer. I’ve simply concluded that this virus is too contagious to contain, to make any drastic measures other than hand washing, sanitation, voluntary self-isolation (and maybe masks), worthwhile.

We, as a family, have decided to move on with life, while doing frequent hand washing, sanitizer and masks as needed (work, & Costco).

We’ve got my 14 year old in her first job working 25 hours per week at a water park and she loves it. My 11 year old is playing with friends, has been at the local game/skating rink and an outdoor play.

I continue to go to work, and my wife just started a job teaching yoga. We’re going out to the best steakhouse in town tonight and I’m running a 5K on Saturday. And my town has a boatload of corona right now.

There’s no guarantees we’ll stay corona free. We may get it. I think the majority of us eventually will. There’s no guarantee we’ll be totally fine if we get it, although the odds are in our favor (<50, healthy; kids <15, healthy). And we know many people that have had it now. All those under age 70 are totally fine. My parents, on the other hand, are >70 with health problems, are isolating still and I’ve told them I agree.

I could end up regretting this approach. It could backfire. But there is risk to living life to the fullest. We accept that.

That’s what we are comfortable with as a family. Others can continue to stay isolated as long as they feel comfortable. But either way, I don’t think there’s any way of stopping this thing. I wish there was.

That my opinion, anyways. Others likely disagree.

I essentially agree with your approach.

What makes me uncomfortable is that a large percentage of the population seems unable to take those “sensible minor” precautions despite being a very small inconvenience to them personally. All over I see:
- people who refuse to wear masks indoors in crowded spaces
- people (including majority of my patients, and large % of grocery/food workers wearing their masks basically just for show - on their chin, off the nose, on neck when no one is watching)
- not hand sanitizing, crowding into elevators etc.
- plenty of highly educated physicians-many on this board- proclaiming they won’t wear masks cause no one can make them, and the evidence is not “rock solid” (although it’s getting better).

I’m not a lockdown proponent (except maybe huge crowded mass-events). But there is a reason our #s are exponentially worse than most of the rest of the world. And it’s probably a combination of stupidity and “I do what I want, who cares about you?” culture here.

When your country has 25% of worldwide coronavirus deaths and less than 5% of the globe’s population, there is SOMETHING that’s been done wrong.

 

[GeneralVeers]

I’m not a lockdown proponent (except maybe huge crowded mass-events). But there is a reason our #s are exponentially worse than most of the rest of the world. And it’s probably a combination of stupidity and “I do what I want, who cares about you?” culture here.

When your country has 25% of worldwide coronavirus deaths and less than 5% of the globe’s population, there is SOMETHING that’s been done wrong.

The facts are not in evidence yet. Most of the big European countries had higher death rates: UK, France, Italy and Spain. The only one lower is Germany.

Chinese numbers are garbage. No one knows how many cases they had, and how many people truly died. I don't think we will ever get data.

Brazil will be hard hit, and I suspect will pass us in death rate.

India will be hard hit as well, but this is mitigated by a young population without the obesity, diabetes, and renal failure that have hit Western countries so hard.

Ultimately it is Western lifestyle diseases that have resulted in more COVID deaths. Diabetes, obesity, smoking, heart disease, COPD, and renal failure are the reason why the U.S., UK, Italy, Spain, and France are so hard hit. Our response to the virus likely has little to do with the overall mortality rate in the broader population. We probably failed as a nation, and especially in NY with quarantining the nursing home population. Germany did this exceptionally well.

 

[doctalaughs]

The facts are not in evidence yet. Most of the big European countries had higher death rates: UK, France, Italy and Spain. The only one lower is Germany.

Chinese numbers are garbage. No one knows how many cases they had, and how many people truly died. I don't think we will ever get data.

Brazil will be hard hit, and I suspect will pass us in death rate.

India will be hard hit as well, but this is mitigated by a young population without the obesity, diabetes, and renal failure that have hit Western countries so hard.

Ultimately it is Western lifestyle diseases that have resulted in more COVID deaths. Diabetes, obesity, smoking, heart disease, COPD, and renal failure are the reason why the U.S., UK, Italy, Spain, and France are so hard hit. Our response to the virus likely has little to do with the overall mortality rate in the broader population. We probably failed as a nation, and especially in NY with quarantining the nursing home population. Germany did this exceptionally well.

Guess time will tell. I agree China #s are meaningless but hard to believe Taiwan, S Korea, Japan etc are all lying.

It will come down to a combination of fatter, stupider and bad response. Guess you can argue for now which is predominant.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Guess time will tell. I agree China #s are meaningless but hard to believe Taiwan, S Korea, Japan etc are all lying.

It will come down to a combination of fatter, stupider and bad response. Guess you can argue for now which is predominant.

Japan, S Korea and Taiwan don't have the obesity and diabetes that we have. They are also essentially island nations with small geographic areas to protect so it was easy for them to limit travel and spread.

It's hard to compare the U.S. to Asian countries with different population demographics and comorbidities.

It's most instructive to compare us to similar populations, like in Canada and Western Europe where we are similar or better in some case. Removing NYC, the country as a whole probably did better than Europe as a whole.

Again, I don't think response to the disease has much affect on Mortality, but rather our fat, unhealthy population.

 

[Birdstrike]

I essentially agree with your approach.

What makes me uncomfortable is that a large percentage of the population seems unable to take those “sensible minor” precautions despite being a very small inconvenience to them personally. All over I see:
- people who refuse to wear masks indoors in crowded spaces
- people (including majority of my patients, and large % of grocery/food workers wearing their masks basically just for show - on their chin, off the nose, on neck when no one is watching)
- not hand sanitizing, crowding into elevators etc.
- plenty of highly educated physicians-many on this board- proclaiming they won’t wear masks cause no one can make them, and the evidence is not “rock solid” (although it’s getting better).

I’m not a lockdown proponent (except maybe huge crowded mass-events). But there is a reason our #s are exponentially worse than most of the rest of the world. And it’s probably a combination of stupidity and “I do what I want, who cares about you?” culture here.

When your country has 25% of worldwide coronavirus deaths and less than 5% of the globe’s population, there is SOMETHING that’s been done wrong.

We have the most free and open society in the world. Usually that's good. In other cases it's not so good. If it's any consolation, many European countries have worse deaths per capita (deaths/1M pop) than us. Also Western societies, they tend to be fairly free and open and tend to do a good job of documenting health information also, as opposed to third world countries that often have no capability or desire to report complete health information.

 

[deleted109597]

We have the most free and open society in the world. Usually that's good. In other cases it's not so good. If it's any consolation, many European countries have worse deaths per capita (deaths/1M pop) than us. Also Western societies, they tend to be fairly free and open and tend to do a good job of documenting health information also, as opposed to third world countries that often have no capability or desire to report complete health information.


View attachment 311304

USA State	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Active Cases	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop	Source	Projections
New Jersey	176,354	+309	15,118	+27	118,886	19,855	1,702	1,387,833	156,249	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
New York	416,787	+769	31,484	+32	296,266	21,425	1,618	3,816,485	196,184	[view by county] [1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Connecticut	46,303	+97	4,316	+5	31,975	12,987	1,211	438,623	123,026	[1]	[projections]
Massachusetts	108,667	+224	8,060	+19	9,203	15,766	1,169	901,142	130,742	[1]	[projections]
Rhode Island	16,661		927		14,134	15,727	875	230,508	217,592	[1]	[projections]
District Of Columbia	10,248	+32	550	+2	8,499	14,521	779	93,132	131,962	[1]	[projections]
Louisiana	56,258	+1,454	3,206	+9	13,260	12,102	690	696,111	149,740	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
Michigan	69,946	+267	6,158	+5	12,689	7,004	617	1,190,816	119,238	[1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Illinois	142,776	+646	7,089	+15	24,626	11,267	559	1,546,031	122,005	[1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Maryland	66,777	+327	3,168	+11	58,633	11,045	524	631,490	104,453	[1]	[projections]
Delaware	11,226	+135	507		4,054	11,528	521	106,346	109,211	[1]	[projections]
Pennsylvania	89,874	+386	6,663	+3	16,525	7,020	520	742,982	58,036	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
Indiana	44,930	+355	2,619	+3	8,376	6,674	389	470,535	69,893	[1] [2]	[projections]
USA Total	2,637,072	+40,535	128,437	+285	1,415,179	7,967	388	32,592,368	98,466
Mississippi	25,892	+361	1,039	+4	7,611	8,700	349	291,863	98,067	[1] [2]	[projections]
Colorado	32,307	+285	1,676	+2	23,604	5,610	291	316,734	55,001	[1]	[projections]

I mean, look at it. NJ, worst in the world. NY, second worst in the world, Connecticut, fourth worst in the world.

We had a very high death rate in a very small section of the nation. Remove those outliers and our average goes down.
Also, we couldn't lock down like the EU. We couldn't ban interstate travel like them. We tried and it was met with multiple lawsuits.

 

[Apollyon]

USA State	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Active Cases	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop	Source	Projections
New Jersey	176,354	+309	15,118	+27	118,886	19,855	1,702	1,387,833	156,249	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
New York	416,787	+769	31,484	+32	296,266	21,425	1,618	3,816,485	196,184	[view by county] [1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Connecticut	46,303	+97	4,316	+5	31,975	12,987	1,211	438,623	123,026	[1]	[projections]
Massachusetts	108,667	+224	8,060	+19	9,203	15,766	1,169	901,142	130,742	[1]	[projections]
Rhode Island	16,661		927		14,134	15,727	875	230,508	217,592	[1]	[projections]
District Of Columbia	10,248	+32	550	+2	8,499	14,521	779	93,132	131,962	[1]	[projections]
Louisiana	56,258	+1,454	3,206	+9	13,260	12,102	690	696,111	149,740	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
Michigan	69,946	+267	6,158	+5	12,689	7,004	617	1,190,816	119,238	[1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Illinois	142,776	+646	7,089	+15	24,626	11,267	559	1,546,031	122,005	[1] [2] [3] [4]	[projections]
Maryland	66,777	+327	3,168	+11	58,633	11,045	524	631,490	104,453	[1]	[projections]
Delaware	11,226	+135	507		4,054	11,528	521	106,346	109,211	[1]	[projections]
Pennsylvania	89,874	+386	6,663	+3	16,525	7,020	520	742,982	58,036	[view by county] [1]	[projections]
Indiana	44,930	+355	2,619	+3	8,376	6,674	389	470,535	69,893	[1] [2]	[projections]
USA Total	2,637,072	+40,535	128,437	+285	1,415,179	7,967	388	32,592,368	98,466
Mississippi	25,892	+361	1,039	+4	7,611	8,700	349	291,863	98,067	[1] [2]	[projections]
Colorado	32,307	+285	1,676	+2	23,604	5,610	291	316,734	55,001	[1]	[projections]

I mean, look at it. NJ, worst in the world. NY, second worst in the world, Connecticut, fourth worst in the world.

We had a very high death rate in a very small section of the nation. Remove those outliers and our average goes down.
Also, we couldn't lock down like the EU. We couldn't ban interstate travel like them. We tried and it was met with multiple lawsuits.

Again, just recall that the VAST number of NY deaths are NYC. Out of 31k deaths, less than 1000 are upstate.

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Did we ever figure out what went wrong in NYC other than people being crammed like sardines and the subway system?

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; over a month in and still going strong. Cornfields help with immunity.

 

[Apollyon]

Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; over a month in and still going strong. Cornfields help with immunity.

"I spy something with my little eye...that is green!"

 

[GeneralVeers]

Again, just recall that the VAST number of NY deaths are NYC. Out of 31k deaths, less than 1000 are upstate.

My understanding is that in addition to the subway it was density. Supposedly they had a large number of deaths in the Asian community of Queens as multi-generations were living in small apartments together. The nursing home issue also greatly increased deaths.

 

[MediMike]

The nursing home issue also greatly increased deaths.

I've heard this several times, but the only data I've seen actually citing cases traced to patients dc'd to a SNF was from Gurwin Jewish, and even they say it could have been any number of other exposures that led to ~50 deaths.

Don't get me wrong, it makes sense, I just haven't seen any actual numbers regarding it. Then you look at states like LA which banned sending + patients to SNFs and they had 40% of their deaths occur in them (more than NY proportionally).

Have you seen anything to back up that statement?

 

[GeneralVeers]

I've heard this several times, but the only data I've seen actually citing cases traced to patients dc'd to a SNF was from Gurwin Jewish, and even they say it could have been any number of other exposures that led to ~50 deaths.

Don't get me wrong, it makes sense, I just haven't seen any actual numbers regarding it. Then you look at states like LA which banned sending + patients to SNFs and they had 40% of their deaths occur in them (more than NY proportionally).

Have you seen anything to back up that statement?

New York's nursing home deaths are artificially low, because of the bizarre way they calculated them. If a patient lived in a nursing home, and died at the hospital it wasn't counted as a nursing home death.

 

[wholeheartedly]

Can anyone explain to me why the non-lockdown states (IA, ND, SD, AS, SC) have similar or less COVD deaths/million than the lockdown states of MN, WI, MO

I can speak to ND at least. Being one of the last states helps a lot. It gives you time to prep. My county had our first PUI March 6th and our nursing home was fully locked down a week later. The governor did jump on the nursing home situation quickly. Most of the longterm care facilities had plenty of time to prep. We also put in place good transfer plans with the bigger hospitals in the state. Little hospitals won’t keep covid if possible and bigger hospitals can transfer lower acuity stuff to the small shops.

Next, while our governor was taking heat in the media for being one of the few states not to “lock down” he was quick to put up a chart comparing steps our state took to steps some locked down states (like MN) took to illustrate there wasn’t much difference. There might not have been a formal shelter in place type order, but when you close the bars and churches down in ND what else are people going to do to get themselves in trouble in groups? You can’t really compare lockdown vs no lockdown without looking at specific steps the states actually took.

Outside of the oil industry, ND also likely isn’t a high international travel state or national travel state compared to a lot of other places. People aren’t generally flocking here importing bugs.

Now from an epidemiologic standpoint, the oil industry does add some pretty unique factors to the equation. A large portion of oil, natural gas, and supporting jobs are rotational in nature (ie 2weeks on 2 weeks off) and those folks don’t stay in ND on days off. They go back to their home states, quite a few of which happened to be early hotspots like WA. So for the western part of the state there’s a constant influx and efflux of a large number of people. Plus there aren’t technically man camps anymore but there are rig bunk houses and company lodges still so high risk congregate living settings. I was very worried my community was going to be a hotspot for that very reason. Our first PUI had been to 8 states during his two weeks off. Then oil slowed and people started to get laid off. Then it absolutely crashed and you can tell the population here is way down.

And yeah, population density probably plays an important role. I’d say fewer people per household too maybe, but I'm guessing there.

Now we’re “over the peak” (which I don’t think ND actually hit yet) and “reopening“ and in phase two of opening the nursing home back up right when everyone is going out in large groups and percent pos tests are going up in my community.

Just give us time. We’ll catch up. We’re not into rushing much ’round these parts.

 

[MedScat]

Nice to be around some like-minded people because it seems that the world I live in, if you don't support a total lockdown because of these rising cases, then you're a terrible human. Are doctors who advise politicians too afraid of what will happen to their reputation if there is a death spike? Our immunology education taught us that although people may die, not exposing the population to this disease only prolongs those same future deaths. Unless they propose we stay closed until they develop a vaccine? Im not sure what I'm missing here...I'm carrying on with my life as well (wearing masks when around other people though)

I am interested in statistics to assess the risk, though. I would be concerned if cases AND deaths were increasing. I've been following these daily updated charts United States: Coronavirus Pandemic

It says that on June 26 some states reported probable deaths which is why there looks like theres an increase in death rates starting june 26. What does this even mean? Either way, deaths are currently decreasing. I'm well aware that this could change though

 

[GeneralVeers]

Nice to be around some like-minded people because it seems that the world I live in, if you don't support a total lockdown because of these rising cases, then you're a terrible human. Are doctors who advise politicians too afraid of what will happen to their reputation if there is a death spike? Our immunology education taught us that although people may die, not exposing the population to this disease only prolongs those same future deaths. Unless they propose we stay closed until they develop a vaccine? Im not sure what I'm missing here...I'm carrying on with my life as well (wearing masks when around other people though)

You are right. I'm confused as well as to what the epidemiologists advising our politicians are saying. There is no containing this disease at this point, so likely everyone who will get infected will do so.......eventually. The only rational explanation for wanting more lockdowns, is to lock down again indefinitely until we have an effective vaccine. The virus will still spread at low levels in the community due to 50% of workers being "essential" and still being out in public and in contact with each other. That means whenever you open up again, the virus will theoretically take off again when there's more human interaction. Mask effectiveness (or not) won't eliminate the spread or get rid of this virus.

 

[Birdstrike]

Netherlands, Denmark, Australia Haved Opened School, Here's How It's Going


"Data from the Netherlands also confirms the current understanding: that children play a minor role in the spread of the novel coronavirus. The virus is mainly spread between adults and from adult family members to children.

"Schools and childcare facilities: Primary schools have been partially reopened since 11 May. The schools reopened fully on 8 June. Childcare facilities are also open again as of that date. Secondary education, special secondary education, practical education and newcomer education reopened on 2 June.

After double-checking with all 25 municipal public health services (GGDs), it has become apparent that there were no reports of possible COVID-19 clusters that had a link to schools or childcare facilities (or temporary childcare) before the schools closed on 16 March. After reopening the primary schools and childcare facilities, a few reports have come in regarding infections among employees at schools; RIVM has not received any reports of employees who were infected by children (based on data as of early June 2020). The reproduction number R, which represents the average number of new infections by a COVID-19 patient, has fluctuated below 1 since mid-March. This means that the spread of the epidemic is slowing down. After the partial reopening of primary schools and childcare facilities on 11 May, there was no sudden increase in the reproduction number

"Denmark was the first country to reopen childcare and primary education, as of 15 April. They have not reported any negative effects after reopening the schools and are not seeing any increase in the reproduction number. A study from Australia showed that there had been confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 9 children and 9 employees. 735 children and 128 employees had been in close contact with these patients. Two other children may possibly have been infected by one of these 18 patients. No other teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19. A study from Ireland looking at 3 children and 3 adults in schools, dating from before the school closure, showed that there were no infections by children in school. The study looked at 1155 contacts in total and identified two patients; these two were both adults that were related to two adult source patients, and the infection took place outside the school. There were 924 children and 101 adults who had had close contact with one of the source patients at school, and none of them had COVID-19."

Source: National Institute for Public Health
and the Environment, Netherlands

 

[xaelia]

Folks keep posting the U.S. death curve. It's as ridiculous to post that as it is to lock down an entire state because one city is experiencing rapid rise in cases.

Sun belt states look like their deaths are starting to curve upwards to match their cases.

The "these people were gonna die eventually" argument discounts vaccine development and the excess deaths from "overshoot" – that more people get infected than the herd immunity number, resulting in excess deaths.

People who want to re-open aren't horrible people, but they ought to recognize which activities are high-risk and recognize some of the behaviors of folks in states with re-opening aren't consistent with ways that help reduce viral spread (parties, no masks, etc.). They're harming the folks who are at high-risk and can't avoid activities of daily living or high-density living/work situations. Neither all-open nor all-lockdown are reasonable extreme points of view.

 

[GeneralVeers]

The "these people were gonna die eventually" argument discounts vaccine development and the excess deaths from "overshoot" – that more people get infected than the herd immunity number, resulting in excess deaths.

Can you explain "overshoot"? I haven't heard this before.

 

[Birdstrike]

Folks keep posting the U.S. death curve. It's as ridiculous to post that..

That's interesting. It was relevant to share the U.S. death curve in March to induce mass panic when it was going up, but when it's trending down it's "ridiculous" to discuss and irrelevant. If we get a vaccine and the death curve goes to zero, will that be ridiculous to mention, too?

Remember everybody, you can't say anything about COVID-19 unless it's panic inducing, even if true. Only panic porn is allowed.

 

[Birdstrike]

Okay to talk about because it's "exponential forever" will never stop going up and will kill us all:

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Birdstrike]

Not okay to talk about because these facts are "ridiculous" and don't apply to everything, everywhere:

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Birdstrike]

Sun belt states look like their deaths are starting to curve upwards to match their cases.

No they don’t match. If they say what you claim, screenshot and post them. Should take no more than 30 seconds.

 

[miacomet]

@Birdstrike curious as to why you are expending so much time and internet bandwidth on what you consider a minimal threat? Why not ignore it, continue your procedures, and focus on what you deem to be more salient and impactful topics?

 

[Birdstrike]

@Birdstrike curious as to why you are expending so much time and internet bandwidth on what you consider a minimal threat? Why not ignore it, continue your procedures, and focus on what you deem to be more salient and impactful topics?

COVID is a threat, and deserves an appropriate reaction. Over-reaction and under-reaction, are also threats.

Head over to the Grateful Dead thread for the rest of your answer. Seriously.

 

[miacomet]

As noted previously, it's not parents, kids, or pediatricians that are delaying school opening, it's teachers, one third of whom are over age 50:

U.S. Pediatricians Call For In-Person School This Fall

The dangers of social isolation outweigh the risks of in-person classes for most children, says the American Academy of Pediatrics.

www.npr.org

If we treat them with respect and pay them what they are worth, school reopening would be more likely to happen.

 

[Birdstrike]

As noted previously, it's not parents, kids, or pediatricians that are delaying school opening, it's teachers, one third of whom are over age 50:
If we treat them with respect and pay them what they are worth, school reopening would be more likely to happen.

I’m all for increased pay and respect for teachers. But in the meantime, everyone else is back to work, including other types of workers that feel they don’t get enough respect or pay.

Tell me again why teachers deserve a special exemption? There are many other workers that earn less, get less respect than teachers and are at risk for COVID. Why no special exemption for them to get paid to stay home, but only for your family & friends who are teachers?

 

[CheGuevaraMD]

I’m all for increased pay and respect for teachers. But in the meantime, everyone else is back to work, including other types of workers that feel they don’t get enough respect or pay.

Tell me again why teachers deserve a special exemption? There are many other workers that earn less, get less respect than teachers and are at risk for COVID. Why no special exemption for them to get paid to stay home, but only for your family & friends who are teachers?

Online instruction exists, even if it’s an inferior alternative. Since it exists, it will be strongly considered by local governments as this pandemic continues to rage.

If you send your kids to public school, this is what you get. If you want a better product, pay top dollar for private school or personalized tutoring.

 

[MHYDE]

As noted previously, it's not parents, kids, or pediatricians that are delaying school opening, it's teachers, one third of whom are over age 50:

U.S. Pediatricians Call For In-Person School This Fall

The dangers of social isolation outweigh the risks of in-person classes for most children, says the American Academy of Pediatrics.

www.npr.org

If we treat them with respect and pay them what they are worth, school reopening would be more likely to happen.

I still don’t understand how a teacher can be frightened of spending the day in front of 25 students but ok with spending the day in front of a rotating group of 12 students (the practical result of kids only going in half the days). When I ask my district about this they say the half and half plan is to keep the kids distanced from each other. When I point out that distancing the kids from each other does more harm than good, they say these measures are to protect teachers. I swear to god...

 

[miacomet]

Is everyone back at work? Unemployment appears sky high. A not insignificant number of people are declining to return to work due to concerns with Coronavirus.

I don't think they are an exception. I think they deserve proper PPE and safety precautions, as I think all workers do, whether they are at a casino in Las Vegas (where many workers are demanding better safety precautions, and threatening to walk off the job), a meatpacking plant, or anywhere else. I won't work without proper PPE. Why should teachers? Or meatpackers? Or Amazon workers? Why do you think they are worthy of less than a healthcare worker? Or the millions working from home?

I'm not related to any teachers, nor do I have any friends that do classroom work; I'm not sure why you feel the need to make things up to bolster your argument??

 

[MHYDE]

Online instruction exists, even if it’s an inferior alternative. Since it exists, it will be strongly considered by local governments as this pandemic continues to rage.

If you send your kids to public school, this is what you get. If you want a better product, pay top dollar for private school or personalized tutoring.

Thanks Che

 

[miacomet]

I still don’t understand how a teacher can be frightened of spending the day in front of 25 students but ok with spending the day in front of a rotating group of 12 students (the practical result of kids only going in half the days). When I ask my district about this they say the half and half plan is to keep the kids distanced from each other. When I point out that distancing the kids from each other does more harm than good, they say these measures are to protect teachers. I swear to god...

Teachers are rejecting this; look at Fairfax, VA.

 

[Birdstrike]

Online instruction exists, even if it’s an inferior alternative.

It's definitely inferior, especially for the youngest kids and those that need the most help learning. It's important to acknowledging that.

If you send your kids to public school, this is what you get. If you want a better product, pay top dollar for private school or personalized tutoring.

I'm not sure private schools are bucking the trend and insisting on in person school, more so than public, are they? I honestly have no idea.

But what you're suggesting is exactly what is going to happen. The kids whose parents have the most resources will be affected the least, if at all, and those with the least will be effected the most. Sad, but true.

 

[MHYDE]

Teachers are rejecting this; look at Fairfax, VA.

Good lord you’re right: “We believe our community as a whole should not return to in-person learning [ANY IN-PERSON LEARNING???] until a vaccine or treatment is widely available for COVID-19.” I’m with Birdstrike on this. That is absolutely expecting special treatment. And with the power of the unions, they just might get their wish. The girl working the register at Petsmart for $13.50/hr is working. If she doesn’t want to she can resign. So can a teacher.

 

[Birdstrike]

Is everyone back at work?

There are few widespread stay at home orders preventing people from going back to work, due to COVID risk. For those unemployed due to fear of contracting COVID at work, I support their right to choose that.

I think they deserve proper PPE

As far as I'm concerned they get all the masks, face shields and sanitizer they need. Even though the risk is very low to them, perhaps lower than most, I say give them three times the PPE they need. No, four times.

Why do you think they are worthy of less than a healthcare worker? Or the millions working from home?

I don't.

I'm not related to any teachers, nor do I have any friends that do classroom work

Okay, cool. I misunderstood. Thank you for clarifying.

 

[MHYDE]

Notice that those teachers aren’t demanding more PPE or more pay. They are demanding pay to stay at home until there’s a vaccine! Is anybody else making that demand??

 

[Birdstrike]

Notice that those teachers aren’t demanding more PPE or more pay. They are demanding pay to stay at home ...

Bingo. It's a pretty sweet deal, isn't it?

 

[miacomet]

Notice that those teachers aren’t demanding more PPE or more pay. They are demanding pay to stay at home until there’s a vaccine! Is anybody else making that demand??

Some of them are just asking for the HEROES act to pass: Support the HEROES Act

Lots of people are demanding to work from home. Many states are re-closing because they didn't put the proper measures in place to keep from crushing their hospital system. Those people are still out of work.

I agree schools should open, but it's going to be hard without some major changes and major investments that no one seems to want to pay for. And while teachers may be demanding to get paid to stay at home, we don't know what percentage would forego their generally modest salaries should they be sent back to crowded, unsanitary classrooms.

 

[Birdstrike]

Overhead today: "I was on Facebook today scrolling through posts by teachers claiming their lives would be in danger if they went back to teaching in person, in between posting maskless pictures of themselves with their kids at crowded parks, bouncy houses and maskless masses of people in restaurants."

 

[Birdstrike]

Many states are re-closing because they didn't put the proper measures in place to keep from crushing their hospital system.

I've heard a few counties reclosing (4 out of 200+ in TX) or states pausing their reopenings, but I haven't heard entire states re-imposing stay-at-home orders? Which states have?

 

[MHYDE]

Some of them are just asking for the HEROES act to pass: Support the HEROES Act

Lots of people are demanding to work from home. Many states are re-closing because they didn't put the proper measures in place to keep from crushing their hospital system. Those people are still out of work.

I agree schools should open, but it's going to be hard without some major changes and major investments that no one seems to want to pay for. And while teachers may be demanding to get paid to stay at home, we don't know what percentage would forego their generally modest salaries should they be sent back to crowded, unsanitary classrooms.

You seem to want them to be making a sensible argument they aren’t actually making. Fairfax teachers have said in black and white that they won’t go back to work (but will continue to expect a paycheck) until a vaccine is deployed. They are not requesting “investments”. They are in fact making demands that nobody else had made. Can you see how that is special treatment?