Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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Something lit a fuse under Bitcoin about 8pm and finally showing signs of life again.
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Dr. Rude said:
Just curious, what percent of your portfolio is Gold or precious metals stocks?
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The official unit is a "crapton" haha.
Well more than half.
Probably too much... but not near enough.

ps but some has blown well past sold calls that was originally placed way way out of the money that will either need to be covered or will be cashed in putting me closer to 50%.
 
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Dr. Rude said:
Just curious, what percent of your portfolio is Gold or precious metals stocks?
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By the way I have no doubt gold will have large pullbacks on its march forward but I feel it's still early enough that I don't want to start trying to time those pullbacks.
 
ambiturner said:
This highlights that Trump really doesn’t have strong convictions or the stomach to make tough decisions. Having listened to Scott Bessent he does seem pretty smart and hopefully he can control the ship.
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We've always known he's a coward and a weakling, easily led, easily distracted, a slave to social media opinion swings.

It's only the cult that somehow thinks he's a visionary leader, that somehow thinks that it's great to have a LEADER after four years of Sleepy Joe.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Something lit a fuse under Bitcoin about 8pm and finally showing signs of life again.
Click to expand...
Isn't it obvious? Dollar is tanking and our market is not investable right now. Probably test sub 38K DJI lows soon.
Tech rut continues to deepen with alphabet and meta in some pretty heated lawsuits.
I'm still cash hoarding into money markets. The only thing I am looking at right now is bitcoin under 80k.
I don't trust this administration to get us back on track. I just hope it doesn't end up like trump university, trump casinos, trump airlines, etc, etc.
This can be a steady and prolonged decline and I don't see anything propping up our market outside of a resolution between US and China. Both parties are too proud at the moment to make any significant strides towards an end to this ridiculous trade war. I could have been rolled out so much better, but this administration chooses to rely on "instinct" to get us through the tough times.
 
MirrorTodd said:
I didn’t buy during residency and now I’m kinda scared to look at prices.
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If you can't get it via a group/employer I'd still get some quotes for an individual policy. Income loss due to sudden inability to work would be a catastrophic loss for most of us - even if you're in great financial shape, shifting assets to cover unexpected costs now instead of expected costs later would be a big hit.

Month to month, my biggest household expense is insurance in one form or another (home auto life health disability umbrella ...) unfortunately just the way it is.
 
The increased price in BTC and gold somewhat just reflects a weaking USD. Look at DXY over the past month.

Meanwhile stocks down, bonds yields up. Money pouring out of the US.
 
sevoflurane said:
Isn't it obvious? Dollar is tanking and our market is not investable right now. Probably test sub 38K DJI lows soon.
Tech rut continues to deepen with alphabet and meta in some pretty heated lawsuits.
I'm still cash hoarding into money markets. The only thing I am looking at right now is bitcoin under 80k.
I don't trust this administration to get us back on track. I just hope it doesn't end up like trump university, trump casinos, trump airlines, etc, etc.
This can be a steady and prolonged decline and I don't see anything propping up our market outside of a resolution between US and China. Both parties are too proud at the moment to make any significant strides towards an end to this ridiculous trade war. I could have been rolled out so much better, but this administration chooses to rely on "instinct" to get us through the tough times.
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True, true, true,
except that Bitcoin has been steadily sinking with the market while gold has been running to the moon. This is the first time in months Bitcoin is showing some breakout, albeit a small one so far.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
True, true, true,
except that Bitcoin has been steadily sinking with the market while gold has been running to the moon. This is the first time in months Bitcoin is showing some breakout, albeit a small one so far.
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It been testing lows a few times under 77K, but has held steady. This is NOT bitcoin "cycle".
The reason it's breaking out is because it's a safe haven compared to US equities and it's somewhat on sale.
Buying gold at these numbers is like buying at the top and hoping for some more upwards trend during a potential global downturn.
IF the market sustains a 10% correction, bitcoin will likely follow, but likely not to that degree. It's been proven quite resilient I own very little.
I don't claim to know everything about bitcoin, but I am pretty sure the pump cycle is NOT what is happening.
 
sevoflurane said:
Isn't it obvious? Dollar is tanking and our market is not investable right now. Probably test sub 38K DJI lows soon.
Tech rut continues to deepen with alphabet and meta in some pretty heated lawsuits.
I'm still cash hoarding into money markets. The only thing I am looking at right now is bitcoin under 80k.
I don't trust this administration to get us back on track. I just hope it doesn't end up like trump university, trump casinos, trump airlines, etc, etc.
This can be a steady and prolonged decline and I don't see anything propping up our market outside of a resolution between US and China. Both parties are too proud at the moment to make any significant strides towards an end to this ridiculous trade war. I could have been rolled out so much better, but this administration chooses to rely on "instinct" to get us through the tough times.
Click to expand...
China will not seriously negotiate if Trump is in charge. There is no trust that President will not tear any agreement. Wait until 11/8/2028.
 
narcotics999 said:
China will not seriously negotiate if Trump is in charge. There is no trust that President will not tear any agreement. Wait until 11/8/2028.
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Trump just called Powell a major loser. Make no mistake, I voted for him to close the border which he did... but he is one major ah.

Trump is pouting because like all before him he doesn't want to let the recessive cycle run its course. He wants more stimulus from Powell in the form of rate cuts to keep the bubble afloat.

The quote from Sonny in A Bronx Take could be applied to almost every politician,
"Nobody cares."
 
Shimmy8 said:
Are you all buying gold direct, ETFs?
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I bought both, but I bought under 2000/ounce. This is not supposed to happen, moving like a Mag 7 at their peak. So either the world is ending or a significant pullback is in order to get back to a less psychotic appreciation slope.

I'm comfortable holding because I still think it's the safer bet looking forward, but I can't urge people to buy at 3400 because I know a significant correction is due, of course also running the risk of missing the next potential up move by waiting for a correction.

Good luck.
 
$BTC
Gold
Equities
$TNX yield

This is the nightmare scenario that this administration doesn’t want. The one group that wants this because it will lead to increased inflation expectations (uncertainty) is the Federal Reserve.

Trump absolutely knows how the monetary policy works. All this talk about Powell is pure theatre. The Fed wants inflation (they have been writing about it for over 10 years) and they can get it by uncertainty (‘tariffs will create inflation’). Getting rid of Powell (he can’t) will not lower rates. It’s voted on. Lmao. Pure performance. FOMC is how rates change and Powell and Trump knows this. They are working in concert
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
$BTC
Gold
Equities
$TNX yield

This is the nightmare scenario that this administration doesn’t want. The one group that wants this because it will lead to increased inflation expectations (uncertainty) is the Federal Reserve.

Trump absolutely knows how the monetary policy works. All this talk about Powell is pure theatre. The Fed wants inflation (they have been writing about it for over 10 years) and they can get it by uncertainty (‘tariffs will create inflation’). Getting rid of Powell (he can’t) will not lower rates. It’s voted on. Lmao. Pure performance. FOMC is how rates change and Powell and Trump knows this. They are working in concert
Click to expand...
Fed wants inflation at a low rate (high inflation or deflation is much worse)

Uncertainty causes pauses in spending. Lower spending generally means lower inflation

Tariffs increase costs of everything, so it increases inflation
 
UscGhost said:
Fed wants inflation at a low rate (high inflation or deflation is much worse)

Uncertainty causes pauses in spending. Lower spending generally means lower inflation

Tariffs increase costs of everything, so it increases inflation
Click to expand...

The expectation of higher inflation is best for them. They don’t have to adjust the ‘neutral rate’. They didn’t get the inflation they wanted post 2008 (They wrote about it). They’re looking for higher (>2%) inflation to make up for the 2010s.

The expectation of higher inflation has worked well this decade. The goal for the Fed isn’t 2% inflation but an ‘average’ of 2% (without guidelines of that average, lol).

Trump talks about sky high tariffs, expectation is higher inflation. The FOMC (not Powell alone), vote on rate changes. Higher inflation works best for the Fed because once the lower bound (0%) is reached (like 2020) it’s game over, unless you print a crap load of money.

These guys are not to be taken at face value. We mean nothing to them. The show must go on regardless. I don’t let them determine my happiness
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
$BTC
Gold
Equities
$TNX yield

This is the nightmare scenario that this administration doesn’t want. The one group that wants this because it will lead to increased inflation expectations (uncertainty) is the Federal Reserve.

Trump absolutely knows how the monetary policy works. All this talk about Powell is pure theatre. The Fed wants inflation (they have been writing about it for over 10 years) and they can get it by uncertainty (‘tariffs will create inflation’). Getting rid of Powell (he can’t) will not lower rates. It’s voted on. Lmao. Pure performance. FOMC is how rates change and Powell and Trump knows this. They are working in concert
Click to expand...

Trump pushes boundaries all the time to see what will stick and what won’t. He will likely try to fire Powell.


www.aclu.org

Trump's Attempt to Deride NLRB Won't Stop Power of Collective Actions | ACLU

While the NLRB’s reopening is encouraging, workers must rely on each other to fulfill the promise of collective action.
www.aclu.org www.aclu.org
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
$BTC
Gold
Equities
$TNX yield

This is the nightmare scenario that this administration doesn’t want. The one group that wants this because it will lead to increased inflation expectations (uncertainty) is the Federal Reserve.

Trump absolutely knows how the monetary policy works. All this talk about Powell is pure theatre. The Fed wants inflation (they have been writing about it for over 10 years) and they can get it by uncertainty (‘tariffs will create inflation’). Getting rid of Powell (he can’t) will not lower rates. It’s voted on. Lmao. Pure performance. FOMC is how rates change and Powell and Trump knows this. They are working in concert
Click to expand...
OMG. I have enjoyed and respected your posts...but this post makes me think that you are insane.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
$BTC
Gold
Equities
$TNX yield

This is the nightmare scenario that this administration doesn’t want. The one group that wants this because it will lead to increased inflation expectations (uncertainty) is the Federal Reserve.

Trump absolutely knows how the monetary policy works. All this talk about Powell is pure theatre. The Fed wants inflation (they have been writing about it for over 10 years) and they can get it by uncertainty (‘tariffs will create inflation’). Getting rid of Powell (he can’t) will not lower rates. It’s voted on. Lmao. Pure performance. FOMC is how rates change and Powell and Trump knows this. They are working in concert
Click to expand...
And let's not forget a rate cut now is done at the beginning of major problems, not a turnaround instant fix. Notice the series of rate cuts circled in red correspond with the market crashes circled in green. I'll let this guy that wrote the article pertaining to that graphic explain it:

"Wall Street axiom says, “Sell the last Fed rate hike.” The reason is that when the Fed starts cutting rates, it is due to the onset of a recession, a bear market, or a financial event. At that point, as shown below, the markets are repricing for lower expectations of earnings growth rates and profitability."
 

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"Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.


This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified." - John Burn-Murdoch
 
rowsdower88 said:
View attachment 402474

"Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.


This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified." - John Burn-Murdoch
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U gotta feel pain before u win the war.

Look not like asking every new anesthesia resident to face mask every LMA case during their month of Anesthesia training as much as possible.

The academic attending feels pain being in the room with new resident. The new resident is sweating to figure the best way to have the face mask fit the for the 1-2 hr case that’s normally done wirh LMA

That’s the pain people need to feel but it’s a learning curve.

It’s makes you better long term handling stress

Trump is trying to do the same thing. Short term pain for long term gains.
 
aneftp said:
U gotta feel pain before u win the war.

Look not like asking every new anesthesia resident to face mask every LMA case during their month of Anesthesia training as much as possible.

The academic attending feels pain being in the room with new resident. The new resident is sweating to figure the best way to have the face mask fit the for the 1-2 hr case that’s normally done wirh LMA

That’s the pain people need to feel but it’s a learning curve.

It’s makes you better long term handling stress

Trump is trying to do the same thing. Short term pain for long term gains.
Click to expand...
I find no coherent rationale in his "strategy".
 
Dr. Rude said:
I find no coherent rationale in his "strategy".
Click to expand...
There is no way to pay for tax cuts he wants. He knows it. 1-2 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.

Unless he proposes something like tarrifs.

The easiest way to pay for his tax cuts is really to cut Medicare and defense spending but trump knows those are untouchables.

So he’s gotta focus on tarrifs revenues collected.

It’s as clear as day what’s he’s doing
 
aneftp said:
There is no way to pay for tax cuts he wants. He knows it. 1-2 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.

Unless he proposes something like tarrifs.

The easiest way to pay for his tax cuts is really to cut Medicare and defense spending but trump knows those are untouchables.

So he’s gotta focus on tarrifs revenues collected.

It’s as clear as day what’s he’s doing
Click to expand...
You don’t agree with Trump on this one though right? Like you don’t really believe that tariff revenues will generate 1-2 trillion over 10 years right?
 
aneftp said:
There is no way to pay for tax cuts he wants. He knows it. 1-2 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.

Unless he proposes something like tarrifs.

The easiest way to pay for his tax cuts is really to cut Medicare and defense spending but trump knows those are untouchables.

So he’s gotta focus on tarrifs revenues collected.

It’s as clear as day what’s he’s doing
Click to expand...
Why is he gutting the IRS?
 
MirrorTodd said:
You don’t agree with Trump on this one though right? Like you don’t really believe that tariff revenues will generate 1-2 trillion over 10 years right?
Click to expand...
I don’t agree with trump because tarrifs is the most complicated way to raise revenue. The revenue generated from tarrifs works on paper. It doesn’t work in real life in this political climate.

The easiest way is to cut defense and Medicare spending. But every tom dick and harry politican is afraid to touch that subject. And no congressmen or woman wants to risk their politican lives to support such cuts. Repub or democrat.
 
aneftp said:
I don’t agree with trump because tarrifs is the most complicated way to raise revenue. The revenue generated from tarrifs works on paper. It doesn’t work in real life in this political climate.

The easiest way is to cut defense and Medicare spending. But every tom dick and harry politican is afraid to touch that subject. And no congressmen or woman wants to risk their politican lives to support such cuts. Repub or democrat.
Click to expand...

The baby boomer generation is the wealthiest and most politically powerful generation in the history of the world. The economic strategy now is continued wealth transfer from the younger generation to the wealthiest generation. The boomers are done accumulating…they don’t need to purchase homes or buy things to start and raise families. So now younger Americans who are trying to build a life and raise families will pay for a tax cut for the wealthiest generation while they sit on their mountains of money and no longer contribute to economic prosperity.

Ending Medicare for people with a certain amount of wealth is something I can support.
 
GravelRider said:
The baby boomer generation is the wealthiest and most politically powerful generation in the history of the world. The economic strategy now is continued wealth transfer from the younger generation to the wealthiest generation. The boomers are done accumulating…they don’t need to purchase homes or buy things to start and raise families. So now younger Americans who are trying to build a life and raise families will pay for a tax cut for the wealthiest generation while they sit on their mountains of money and no longer contribute to economic prosperity.

Ending Medicare for people with a certain amount of wealth is something I can support.
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Medicare already charges surcharge for part b premiums for people making over 85k ish.

They lifted the cap for Medicare back with Clinton 42

We need Medicare for all. Just impossible for everyone to agree on how to implement it.

But 40% of Americans are already on some form of socialized healthcare plan already. So we are almost half way there. Unfortunately those 40% barely pay anything into the system anymore either with Medicare or tricare etc (they feel entitled to their earned health care) and 20% on Medicaid not paying a penny.
 
aneftp said:
There is no way to pay for tax cuts he wants. He knows it. 1-2 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.

Unless he proposes something like tarrifs.

The easiest way to pay for his tax cuts is really to cut Medicare and defense spending but trump knows those are untouchables.

So he’s gotta focus on tarrifs revenues collected.

It’s as clear as day what’s he’s doing
Click to expand...
I thought it was more like 5 trillion.
And tariffs or not, it's borrowed money paying for the tax cuts, just a matter of how much borrowed money.
 
Last edited:
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Tesla, up 40 or down 40 after close today?
Click to expand...


This past Saturday I was charging at a supercharger while I was eating pho for lunch. A guy in a Tesla jacket approached me when I got back to my car. He said he works at a delivery/service center and asked me if I’d like to test drive the new Model Y over the weekend and return it on Monday. Never happened to me before.
 
nimbus said:
This past Saturday I was charging at a supercharger while I was eating pho for lunch. A guy in a Tesla jacket approached me when I got back to my car. He said he works at a delivery/service center and asked me if I’d like to test drive the new Model Y over the weekend and return it on Monday. Never happened to me before.
Click to expand...
Fascinating. It’s also butt ugly. Not sure how they revised the 3 so well and the Y so horribly.

It looks like a plagiarized Chinese EV stapled to the back of a Prius.
 
aneftp said:
Medicare already charges surcharge for part b premiums for people making over 85k ish.

They lifted the cap for Medicare back with Clinton 42

We need Medicare for all. Just impossible for everyone to agree on how to implement it.

But 40% of Americans are already on some form of socialized healthcare plan already. So we are almost half way there. Unfortunately those 40% barely pay anything into the system anymore either with Medicare or tricare etc (they feel entitled to their earned health care) and 20% on Medicaid not paying a penny.
Click to expand...

What do they pay? A couple hundred bucks a month? Meanwhile they are the number one consumers of healthcare. What does a family plan cost…for a family that maybe does a couple pediatrician well visits a year? Medicare is nothing but a wealth transfer from the young to the older and wealthiest generation in the history of the world. Obviously attempting to reform Medicare is a political non-starter for either party because baby boomers vote in force, but we should recognize that part of the reason young people are having a hard time buying homes and starting families is because we continue to subsidize the old and wealthy.

Tariffs are another subsidy for the old and wealthy paid for by the young. You like to use anesthesia analogies…older dinosaurs eating off the young partners is a tale as old as time.
 
GravelRider said:
What do they pay? A couple hundred bucks a month? Meanwhile they are the number one consumers of healthcare. What does a family plan cost…for a family that maybe does a couple pediatrician well visits a year? Medicare is nothing but a wealth transfer from the young to the older and wealthiest generation in the history of the world. Obviously attempting to reform Medicare is a political non-starter for either party because baby boomers vote in force, but we should recognize that part of the reason young people are having a hard time buying homes and starting families is because we continue to subsidize the old and wealthy.

Tariffs are another subsidy for the old and wealthy paid for by the young. You like to use anesthesia analogies…older dinosaurs eating off the young partners is a tale as old as time.
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Many countries have fica style health tax for socialize medicine

Germany for example, 2024 — Health insurance: 14.6%, up to an income ceiling of EUR 58,050 annually. A contribution of 7.3% each is borne by both the employer

Those who make more than pay for private insurance.

It’s so simple.

But Germany also pays their docs 1/2 as USA docs.

Lots of give and take. But medical school is close to free? In Germany? But u can’t be a f up kid because you won’t get into medical schools if u mess up partying in high school.
 
GravelRider said:
What do they pay? A couple hundred bucks a month? Meanwhile they are the number one consumers of healthcare. What does a family plan cost…for a family that maybe does a couple pediatrician well visits a year? Medicare is nothing but a wealth transfer from the young to the older and wealthiest generation in the history of the world. Obviously attempting to reform Medicare is a political non-starter for either party because baby boomers vote in force, but we should recognize that part of the reason young people are having a hard time buying homes and starting families is because we continue to subsidize the old and wealthy.

Tariffs are another subsidy for the old and wealthy paid for by the young. You like to use anesthesia analogies…older dinosaurs eating off the young partners is a tale as old as time.
Click to expand...
Those of us at the top echelons ~$405-443/month for part B, and another ~$78-89/month for prescriptions. But, you likely still need a medigap plan, includes part D, which could be a couple of $100 more, or you can pay even more to Uncle Sam for regular Medicare. In terms of subsidizing the old and wealthy boomers, I agree the wealthy are being subsidized, but I know a lot of older people that are struggling. I personally will be paying more for Medicare than I did for health insurance when I was working, but I can well afford it. I totally disagree with those who argue that Social Security shouldn’t be taxed across the board. I agree that tariffs will have less impact on my generation. I also think it is ludicrous that there is talk of doing away with income taxes. What would stop me from taking all my savings and moving out of the US without paying a cent on my IRA, 457 or 403B? So many of my generation are transferring funds to their children to keep them afloat in this economy, and you hear the administration thinking of ways to encourage people to have children they can’t afford. Yet, the administration wants to tax the poor and middle class via tariffs and decrease the tax burden on the wealthy even more. The ever growing wealth gap will grow even wider with the current administration’s plans.
 
nimbus said:
This past Saturday I was charging at a supercharger while I was eating pho for lunch. A guy in a Tesla jacket approached me when I got back to my car. He said he works at a delivery/service center and asked me if I’d like to test drive the new Model Y over the weekend and return it on Monday. Never happened to me before.
Click to expand...
Tesla will go out of business or won't sell cars in 10 years. They will only have the US market to sell. Musk is already alienated 1/2 of the US market and ironically, these are the people (crazy liberals) who usually buy his car. Elon Musk is just an idiot.
 
Splenda88 said:
Tesla will go out of business or won't sell cars in 5 years. They will only have the US market to sell. Musk is already alienated 1/2 of the US market and ironically, these are the people (crazy liberals) who usually buy his car. Elon Musk is just an idiot.
Click to expand...
Nah. The big selling point for most people who buy Tesla is the FSD. 3 people this week at my work picked up their model y. Everyone was waiting for the new model y.

The model y is tesla money maker and people stopped buying model y the last 6-7 months who were in the market for new EVs.

You buy Tesla for the software.

Their software is years ahead of other competitors.

All the knobs and buttons their competitors still have in their ev is outdated.
 
aneftp said:
Nah. The big selling point for most people who buy Tesla is the FSD. 3 people this week at my work picked up their model y. Everyone was waiting for the new model y.

The model y is tesla money maker and people stopped buying model y the last 6-7 months who were in the market for new EVs.

You buy Tesla for the software.

Their software is years ahead of other competitors.

All the knobs and buttons their competitors still have in their ev is outdated.
Click to expand...
I own a model Y and I like the car, but Tesla PR is horrible. I think Elon should step down as a CEO.
 
Splenda88 said:
I own a model Y and I like the car, but Tesla PR is horrible. I think Elon should step down as a CEO.
Click to expand...
Ask yourself. If you were to buy another EV.

Would you buy a similar 50k EV like Kia

All trim pricing including destination:
• ⁠Light standard range RWD - $44,375
• ⁠Light Long Range RWD - $47,675
• ⁠Light Long Range AWD - $51,775
• ⁠ind RWD - $51,775
• ⁠Wind AWD - $55,775
• ⁠GT-Line RWD - $55,675
• ⁠GT-Line AWD - $60,375
• ⁠GT - $65,275

It’s not like Kia ev is cheaper than Tesla and the Kia ev resell value is atrocious

I’m just using Kia as an example but vw ev isn’t selling well either. Ford mach-e mustang. The list can go on and on.

I’m not telling everyone to go EV. I still need ice vehicle for road trips.
 
Ezekiel2517 said:
Trump proceeds to start retreating and walk back his tariffs on China.
He states he has no intention of getting rid of Powell.
Elon announces he will be "pulling back significantly" from DOGE in May to spend more time with Tesla.
They have yet to make a single trade deal with any country.
Click to expand...
The art of the deal.

In all honesty, I don't think most Trump supporters think Trump is a competent individual. They just want to stick to the democrats.
 
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