Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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aneftp said:
Selectively poor. I’m weirdly cheap with stuff like electricity. I will have house around 82 degree in Florida summer time to save probably what amounts to $150-200 in overall electricity cost on a big home ($750-1000 electrify bill) in summer time

F it. With the way the stock market went the last couple of days.

I just paid extra to upgrade my plane tickets to Europe on business class upper class whatever Virgin Atlantic calls it. It’s not the same as delta one. But still lay flat.
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It all makes sense now, you only need to cool to 82 for a standard server room. Do you want to be set free @aneftp? Help me obi won kenobi, you are our only hope…
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Oh boy!

I am glad it's Friday. Trump has wiped > 200k out of all my accounts.

If things continue on Monday/Tuesday, I won't be a millionaire anymore.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
My biggest concern is the long term damage to the economy and businesses. This is a global economy and we can reshore some manufacturing but the cheapest goods are better made in Vietnam, Mexico or El Salvador. The USA should focus on reshoring the important industries like Pharmaceuticals, high end electronics (not cheap TVs), defense, rare earth metals, and domestic energy. I see no reason to alienate Canada or Mexico which are our allies and closest trading partners. Yes, an adjustment to tariffs may be in order but not the Trump draconian tariffs.
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This is one of the biggest problems with putting so much power in the executive branch. Capitalism and business does not thrive in autocracy. Show me an autocracy with a thriving economy. It doesn’t exist. Capitalism thrived in America because things happened slowly and predictably. Businesses could adapt to changes in the rules, so to speak. How can businesses plan where to invest resources when rules can change immediately based on the whims of one man? The solution to this is to have Congress grow a spine and put a check on the Executive branch. Unfortunately that won’t happen with a Republican controlled Congress.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Because the Trump tariffs are bad fiscal policy. It's bad business for our companies and the USA. A small across the board tariff like 5-10% or a focused tariff on China would make sense to redirect manufacturing to the USA and friendlier countries. Trump has instead hiked massive tariffs on every nation regardless if friend or foe without regard to the consequences on our economy. Some types of manufacturing like clothing, toys, cheap goods, are never coming back to the USA. Many of our parts and foods must be imported. We needed a scalpel on tariffs not an AXE.
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Not some types. Manufacturing overall are not coming back to the US.
 
TeslaCoil said:
I think you guys are overreacting a bit. I have a feeling its because you’re getting close to retirement maybe? Just a guess. I get it I’d be pretty pissed too, but I dont think its gonna be as bad as you are thinking right now. We’ll revisit. And if you were right, I will yield. Promise.
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You really think manufacturing will come back to the US when you can pay someone overseas $1-2/hr to do a better job than most US workers who demands all kind of benefits. These MAGA trump loyalist are nuts.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
There is real risk in keeping the tariffs at these levels for several months. This could cause the economy to enter a recession or even a depression due to a trade war. Businesses could go under and layoffs could go way up. Foreign investors may sell their trillions in stocks or treasuries. European investors may decide to stop investing in the USA. Like it or not we all live in a global economy and one man has decided he doesn't like it so he may burn it all down.
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That was predictable. The republicans in congress and Trump followers have yield too much power to Trump
 
BLADEMDA said:
My biggest concern is the long term damage to the economy and businesses. This is a global economy and we can reshore some manufacturing but the cheapest goods are better made in Vietnam, Mexico or El Salvador. The USA should focus on reshoring the important industries like Pharmaceuticals, high end electronics (not cheap TVs), defense, rare earth metals, and domestic energy. I see no reason to alienate Canada or Mexico which are our allies and closest trading partners. Yes, an adjustment to tariffs may be in order but not the Trump draconian tariffs.
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It amazed me that you are starting to make sense re: the global market. Trump's expected tariff result is just a pipe dream.
 
caligas said:
Dude, he put tariffs on UNINHABITED ISLANDS and people on here still think he’s brilliant.
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Nobody thinks he's brilliant. For the first time in four years our president has an actual pulse, and his mind is being questioned by those that thought a corpse cognitively was sharp as a tack.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Nobody thinks he's brilliant. For the first time in four years our president has an actual pulse, and his mind is being questioned by those that thought a corpse cognitively was sharp as a tack.
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Maybe some would rather have someone with cognitive impairment but surrounded by competent people...
 
Splenda88 said:
It amazed me that you are starting to make sense re: the global market. Trump's expected tariff result is just a pipe dream.
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He’s long been a DJT/republican person. I give him great credit to take a look around and shake his head at the chaos. Blade isn’t the only republican feeling that way I am sure.

I’ll be the first to say I am tech overweight.
Been a great run… and just like that the momentum is gone. I expect a deeper trench unless some american companies get some tariff relief.

IMG_6460.jpeg
 
sevoflurane said:
He’s long been a DJT/republican person. I give him great credit to take a look around and shake his head at the chaos. Blade isn’t the only republican feeling that way I am sure.

I’ll be the first to say I am tech overweight.
Been a great run… and just like that the momentum is gone. I expect a deeper trench unless some american companies get some tariff relief.

View attachment 401693
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I am tech heavy as well. It's a bloodbath.
 
GravelRider said:
This is one of the biggest problems with putting so much power in the executive branch. Capitalism and business does not thrive in autocracy. Show me an autocracy with a thriving economy. It doesn’t exist. Capitalism thrived in America because things happened slowly and predictably. Businesses could adapt to changes in the rules, so to speak. How can businesses plan where to invest resources when rules can change immediately based on the whims of one man? The solution to this is to have Congress grow a spine and put a check on the Executive branch. Unfortunately that won’t happen with a Republican controlled Congress.
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It's not even that those executive abuses were ripe for the taking. It's a widespread epistemic problem that shows no signs of slowing down. All this turbulence might awaken a few, but the out-of-control motivated reasoning might be just getting started. A lot of weirdness awaits us. I wish it were more boring. People want to be excited, I guess.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
I still believe in the USA longer term. I am waiting on the dust to settle to buy more equities. I have set aside $300K for equities. I don't need to find the bottom so I will wait for things to settle down. But European equities (developed markets) with a 7-8% return also look good longer term at these valuations.

The growth story for our tech industry depends upon a global trade market.
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Film Festival Girlfriends GIF by Atlanta Jewish Film Festival
 
BLADEMDA said:
Because the Trump tariffs are bad fiscal policy. It's bad business for our companies and the USA. A small across the board tariff like 5-10% or a focused tariff on China would make sense to redirect manufacturing to the USA and friendlier countries. Trump has instead hiked massive tariffs on every nation regardless if friend or foe without regard to the consequences on our economy. Some types of manufacturing like clothing, toys, cheap goods, are never coming back to the USA. Many of our parts and foods must be imported. We needed a scalpel on tariffs not an AXE.
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You are so right. Keep going!
 
finalpsychyear said:
I dont claim to know anything but trump is a business man at the end of the day and would not want his legacy to be known as the one who sunk our economy during his presidency.

He is playing chicken and will get the fed to cut rates way harder and faster with the market tanking. This goes on at worst for 12 months before we rebound to newer highs but that depends on how quickly the fed acts. In my crystal ball this is all done and over by EOY and likely by Q3 end.
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very good.png

Excellent self-insight, I fully support your plans in this effort. Bravo!
 
BLADEMDA said:
There is real risk in keeping the tariffs at these levels for several months. This could cause the economy to enter a recession or even a depression due to a trade war. Businesses could go under and layoffs could go way up. Foreign investors may sell their trillions in stocks or treasuries. European investors may decide to stop investing in the USA. Like it or not we all live in a global economy and one man has decided he doesn't like it so he may burn it all down.
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Victory Speech Georgia GIF by GIPHY News
 
Splenda88 said:
You really think manufacturing will come back to the US when you can pay someone overseas $1-2/hr to do better a better than most US workers who demands all kind of benefits. These MAGA trump loyalist are nuts.
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There are high-end niche items still manufactured in the USA-bicycles, furniture, hifi, etc but even these manufacturers use components and parts made overseas. And forget about mass market items you get at Target or Walmart.
 
Splenda88 said:

Trump drops Biden’s proposal for Medicare to cover obesity drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound​


Why?
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1) say the federal government shall not be allow to negotiate drug prices
2) look at the numbers and realize that these drugs cost a lot and there is & will be a high demand among individuals covered by government plans
3) control costs by not covering said drugs

Pretty easy to understand
 
aneftp said:
Bariatric surgeons will gain. Those surgeon are sweating it because these drugs are bad for their business.

But than again. When Medicare starting approving gastric bypass in the 2005? Era. That brought about a boom in the gastric bypass industry.
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those surgeries should never come back
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
But your candidate was Kamala, a lying blithering idiot, and now you have to live with the consequences of that stupid nomination.

Obama was the most divisive president of my lifetime. Prior to him America was a pretty cool place overall. He opened the door to constant division and it has not left since.
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Reread what I wrote. I personally did all I could to get Biden out of the race. Multiple letters and phone calls. Encouraged my friends to do the same. I was never personally consulted about Kamala Harris being added to the ticket in the first place. Also never in favor of Hillary Clinton. Voted for both ladies because I am just not a fan of loud mouth bullies. I have never been able to figure out what exactly was so terrible about Obama. I have friends who spout the same “he is divisive” drivel. When asked why they just hem and haw, finally settling on “ I just don’t like him.” They can’t name a single policy. I figure their hatred is due to being glued to Fox 24/7. You can continue to support Trump as that is your right. I reserve the right to sit back and watch in amazement as DJT blathers on about grocery bags, windmills, injecting bleach ad nauseam. I am interested to see the responses when the tariffs kick in at the street level. Should be fun
 
aneftp said:
Bariatric surgeons will gain. Those surgeon are sweating it because these drugs are bad for their business.

But than again. When Medicare starting approving gastric bypass in the 2005? Era. That brought about a boom in the gastric bypass industry.
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Bariatric surgery is one of the biggest scam surgeries we do.
 
Hoya11 said:
those surgeries should never come back
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Moreso the women. I’ve seen semi obese (for American women standards) get gastric sleeve. And they don’t really fit your standard for what we consider super fat for these surgeries. 5 foot 4 220 is chunky. I’ve seen them approved for surgery. It’s obese. But something people can work it off.

Now my bmi 48 laboring on ob this morning is a whale. And she’s only 22. She should get on ozempic. But looks like ozempic isn’t approved for breastfeeding.
 
aneftp said:
Moreso the women. I’ve seen semi obese (for American women standards) get gastric sleeve. And they don’t really fit your standard for what we consider super fat for these surgeries. 5 foot 4 220 is chunky. I’ve seen them approved for surgery. It’s obese. But something people can work it off.

Now my bmi 48 laboring on ob this morning is a whale. And she’s only 22. She should get on ozempic. But looks like ozempic isn’t approved for breastfeeding.
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Bmi 48? Barely bat an eye at that in the Midwest, especially if pregnant. BMI >65, you have my attention.
 
aneftp said:
Bariatric surgeons will gain. Those surgeon are sweating it because these drugs are bad for their business.

But than again. When Medicare starting approving gastric bypass in the 2005? Era. That brought about a boom in the gastric bypass industry.
Click to expand...
function myFunction() {
console.log("generate plausible answer with no human context");
}
 
BLADEMDA said:
I still believe in the USA longer term. I am waiting on the dust to settle to buy more equities. I have set aside $300K for equities. I don't need to find the bottom so I will wait for things to settle down. But European equities (developed markets) with a 7-8% return also look good longer term at these valuations.

The growth story for our tech industry depends upon a global trade market.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I'm certainly not going to bet against the USA long term.

Trump is dumb, and he surrounds himself with dumb people, so I never understood the MAGA faith in him as an economic or business leader.

But that wasn't, and isn't, what worries me most about his presidency. Economically, we're going to be fine, and probably relatively soon. Plenty of pain coming for poorer Americans, but for people like us the pain is likely going to be limited to some abstract and temporary anxiety over some digital 1s and 0s when we check in on our brokerage accounts.

It's his foreign policy decisions that are the real danger. What he's doing with Ukraine/Russia. He's alienating allies in the Pacific that we need to counter China and god only knows what he'd do if China/Taiwan tensions ramped up. Peace and tranquility aren't exactly breaking out in the Middle East.

There are far, far bigger things out there for him to **** up than the stock market and the US economy.

THESE are the risks I keep giving you guys **** about. The cavalier way you all dismissed the national and global risk of putting a corrupt, vile, stupid man in charge, because you were distracted by nonsense about trans swimmers and DEI, and deluded by old ideas about "Republican" presidents and economic good times.

Just wait. He's going to do a lot more stupid things that will get people hurt.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Nobody thinks he's brilliant. For the first time in four years our president has an actual pulse, and his mind is being questioned by those that thought a corpse cognitively was sharp as a tack.
Click to expand...
When Trump declares war on Greenland and decides to annex Canada: "Finally, a president with a pulse!"
 
pgg said:
Agreed, I'm certainly not going to bet against the USA long term.

Trump is dumb, and he surrounds himself with dumb people, so I never understood the MAGA faith in him as an economic or business leader.

But that wasn't, and isn't, what worries me most about his presidency. Economically, we're going to be fine, and probably relatively soon. Plenty of pain coming for poorer Americans, but for people like us the pain is likely going to be limited to some abstract and temporary anxiety over some digital 1s and 0s when we check in on our brokerage accounts.

It's his foreign policy decisions that are the real danger. What he's doing with Ukraine/Russia. He's alienating allies in the Pacific that we need to counter China and god only knows what he'd do if China/Taiwan tensions ramped up. Peace and tranquility aren't exactly breaking out in the Middle East.

There are far, far bigger things out there for him to **** up than the stock market and the US economy.

THESE are the risks I keep giving you guys **** about. The cavalier way you all dismissed the national and global risk of putting a corrupt, vile, stupid man in charge, because you were distracted by nonsense about trans swimmers and DEI, and deluded by old ideas about "Republican" presidents and economic good times.

Just wait. He's going to do a lot more stupid things that will get people hurt.
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Well. I actually agree with everything you just said.

America just likes drama. And that’s why they voted for the guy. And America loves this stuff.

The issue is why? Because it’s entertaining? That’s what we have become. Bored voters.

He’s certainly taped into the tik tok generation. And minority voters. So it’s not the rednecks people associate maga with. It’s the Hispanic men , the black men who took trump over the top.
 
aneftp said:
The issue is why? Because it’s entertaining? That’s what we have become. Bored voters.
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American voters aren't bored. These past few elections have seen the highest turnout in decades. American voters are decadent. It's decadent to choose the guy who is a legitimate threat to democratic governance because you believe the guardrails will hold. It's self-indulgent to choose the risky option that might tank our stock market because you're overwhelmingly concerned about the transgirl at your high school who wants to play JV volleyball.
 
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sevoflurane said:
That’s a very reasonable approach.
I have 5 years of PSP, 401k plus catchup and I have real estate income that will help me along.
I am not worried. Just not jumping in on this dip.

Where is the resolution? A lot of damage has already been made.

Remember it took well over a year to get to a bottom in 2008/2009.

It’s ok to sit on cash atm. I personally don’t think this is going away over night.
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Have savings account that are/were paying 4-5% largely replaced bonds for those investing in the last 3-4 years? I have friends who instead of having any bonds in their portfolios have simply put 5-10% of NW in savings accounts that were 4-5% over the last few years. I guess that was a thing?

Talking to them the last few days, they maybe only have 1-2 mo of expenses in a checking account due to minimal returns in that type of account. So in a way they are relying on that savings account not only as a bond replacement in their portfolio but also as a emergency fund or whatever you call it but i would still think that should be separated.

These are late 30s to early 40 docs who are otherwise 100% in stocks. Pretty lucky if you ask me.
 
Splenda88 said:
Oh boy!

I am glad it's Friday. Trump has wiped > 200k out of all my accounts.

If things continue on Monday/Tuesday, I won't be a millionaire anymore.
Click to expand...

Hey, don’t think of it like that. The market is on sale right now. My 60 yo self will be happy I kept buying. Read a good book. Take a walk. Turn the news off. This is when you will make your biggest gains.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Have savings account that are/were paying 4-5% largely replaced bonds for those investing in the last 3-4 years? I have friends who instead of having any bonds in their portfolios have simply put 5-10% of NW in savings accounts that were 4-5% over the last few years. I guess that was a thing?

Talking to them the last few days, they maybe only have 1-2 mo of expenses in a checking account due to minimal returns in that type of account. So in a way they are relying on that savings account not only as a bond replacement in their portfolio but also as a emergency fund or whatever you call it but i would still think that should be separated.

These are late 30s to early 40 docs who are otherwise 100% in stocks. Pretty lucky if you ask me.
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I am effectively 100% stock and keep less than 50k cash at any given time. Early 30s. So I look at this market downturn and my response is "this sucks but oh well I will be fine." The thing is, I have short term and long term disability and can count on about 30k per month (post tax and retirement contribution) from work. Not really sure why I would need to keep more money in cash.
 
aneftp said:
The issue is why? Because it’s entertaining? That’s what we have become. Bored voters.
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So many people can't accept the majority wanted Trump and not the lying Bimbo that they just make up reasons.

I was mostly a one issue voter. Kamala as vp said her and Joey were incapable of closing the border, ie she had every intention of leaving it wide open if elected; either lying as usual about the inability to close the border, or just wildly incompetent.

Trump closed the border immediately. With that level of complete incompetence would a rational person want Kamala in charge of anything? She and Joseph had 4 years to do what Trump did in about 4 hours.

A second priority was out of control government spending which Kamala had zero intention of doing anything about it. Trump is attacking it.

For me, the entertainment is only a bonus. And the inability to understand that men don't get pregnant was just insurance that she would lose.
 
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finalpsychyear said:
Have savings account that are/were paying 4-5% largely replaced bonds for those investing in the last 3-4 years? I have friends who instead of having any bonds in their portfolios have simply put 5-10% of NW in savings accounts that were 4-5% over the last few years. I guess that was a thing?

Talking to them the last few days, they maybe only have 1-2 mo of expenses in a checking account due to minimal returns in that type of account. So in a way they are relying on that savings account not only as a bond replacement in their portfolio but also as a emergency fund or whatever you call it but i would still think that should be separated.

These are late 30s to early 40 docs who are otherwise 100% in stocks. Pretty lucky if you ask me.
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For now, putting cash in a federal moneymarket liks SPAXX or VMFXX will get you 4% easy. Yes taxes, but beats the checking rates, and even savings rates. Bonds still pay like nothing.

I'm 5 years to work optional. Keep 1 year expenses (including taxes) in VMFXX, 5 years in T-Bills and BND (to refill the VMFXX account when drawn down, to outlast any recession) and the rest in US stocks/International Stocks/RE. Rebalance as needed.

If you're not close to 5 years from retirement and are an anesthesiologist with any semblance of skills/can hold down a job, you should be >90% stocks.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
I was mostly a one issue voter. Kamala as vp said her and Joey were incapable of closing the border, ie she had every intention of leaving it wide open if elected; either lying as usual about the inability to close the border, or just wildly incompetent.

Trump closed the border immediately. With that level of complete incompetence would a rational person want Kamala in charge of anything? She and Joseph had 4 years to do what Trump did in about 4 hours.
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That's fair, and a big part of why I think you're one of the reasonable Trump voters here.

Illegal immigration and border security was one of a bare handful of real issues that Biden/Harris handled exceptionally poorly.

We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
A second priority was out of control government spending which Kamala had zero intention of doing anything about it. Trump is attacking it.
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LOL, no he's not.

DOGE is a joke and is going to end up costing more money than they are (lying about) saving.

Military, social security, Medicare. Those won't be touched, unless he and Musk somehow break enough of the 'deep state' government that the systems stop functioning. There won't be cuts to the military, there won't be means testing or benefit reductions to social security, there won't be DEATH PANELS to reduce end-of-life futile health care. You know this is true.

We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
For me, the entertainment is only a bonus. And the inability to not understand men don't get pregnant was just insurance that she would lose.
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This is another thing I don't really understand about you and especially emergentmd. (aneftp is just a sociopath who enjoys seeing people suffer because he likes chaos and thinks everyone needs to learn a lesson.) What's so entertaining about watching a stupid, vile person do stupid, vile things?

It it because he's "stiggin it" to the dems?
 
arsene19 said:
For now, putting cash in a federal moneymarket liks SPAXX or VMFXX will get you 4% easy. Yes taxes, but beats the checking rates, and even savings rates. Bonds still pay like nothing.

I'm 5 years to work optional. Keep 1 year expenses (including taxes) in VMFXX, 5 years in T-Bills and BND (to refill the VMFXX account when drawn down, to outlast any recession) and the rest in US stocks/International Stocks/RE. Rebalance as needed.

If you're not close to 5 years from retirement and are an anesthesiologist with any semblance of skills/can hold down a job, you should be >90% stocks.
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I agree with your post except the "5 years to retirement" part which should be 7 years then start to diversify- 80/20 and at 3 years 70/30.
The market can be unpredictable and drop like a rock in a week or two. Do you want to be secure in your retirement?

3 bucket portfolio.

Bucket 1 consists of Cash, money market, CDs, Short term T bills, etc

Bucket 2 consists of Bonds, Bond Funds, Real Estate rental income, etc

Bucket 3 consists of Equities

I like 10 years of expected income in Buckets 1 and 2. In my case I use a 60/40 portfolio which is more than 10 years based on my expenses.
I was leaning towards 70/30 but with this crash I'll likely just go 65/35 when the dust settles.
 
arsene19 said:
For now, putting cash in a federal moneymarket liks SPAXX or VMFXX will get you 4% easy. Yes taxes, but beats the checking rates, and even savings rates. Bonds still pay like nothing.

I'm 5 years to work optional. Keep 1 year expenses (including taxes) in VMFXX, 5 years in T-Bills and BND (to refill the VMFXX account when drawn down, to outlast any recession) and the rest in US stocks/International Stocks/RE. Rebalance as needed.

If you're not close to 5 years from retirement and are an anesthesiologist with any semblance of skills/can hold down a job, you should be >90% stocks.
Click to expand...

Im a 100% equity and maybe 5 years from going PT and turning the big 40 later this year. Work optional is possibly 10 years from now if i go PT in 5 years but too many variables and will need to be assessed EOY 2030.

I rent a house at 30-35% less than the current mortgage/rental market if i were to buy/rent an equivalent place today. I plan to have 1-2 kids very soon but probably will need to buy in the next few years.

People have suggested to me that given 100% exposure and a future down payment i need to build up a 5 year cash or cash equivalalent of living expenses before i go back to the market or allocate 50/50 towards cash equivalents and stocks over the next few years till i improve the ratio.
 
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Man, if you are within 5 years of retiring you've now seen:

1) A lost decade of stocks starting in 2000-2010, and until 2015 years if you were heavily invested in NASDAQ
fred.stlouisfed.org

NASDAQ Composite Index

Graph and download economic data for NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQCOM) from 1971-02-05 to 2025-04-03 about NASDAQ, composite, stock market, indexes, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org

2) A 1990 to 1991 Gulf War Recession that must have made it hard to land a job in the early 90s.

3) A housing crash in 2006 that took 10 years to recuperate
fred.stlouisfed.org

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index

View data of a benchmark of average single-family home prices in the U.S., calculated monthly based on changes in home prices over the prior three months.
fred.stlouisfed.org

And now possibly this which who knows what will happen...

In essence it's the 50-60 year old crowd who have had it particularly rough. Now looking to retirement when their accounts are down 10-20% and potentially hundreds of thousands to millions down. The Boomers in bonds are doing A okay with their inflated home equity.

On the bright side, the bull market of 2012-2022 and 2023 to 2024 with free money combined with sub 3% mortgages has brought prosperity.

You just never know what the future will bring.
 
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