Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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BLADEMDA said:
I remain invested at all times with 8% of my portfolio on the sidelines earning interest. This 8% is slated to be invested this year. Stocks appear over valued based on lower earnings and higher tariffs as a baseline.
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Why do you remain invested while you also predicted s and p would drop to 4000 something?

What interest does 8% of your portfolio make and how? Some kind of bank savings account?
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PpfSuxTube said:
Why do you remain invested while you also predicted s and p would drop to 4000 something?

What interest does 8% of your portfolio make and how? Some kind of bank savings account?
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I always remain invested at all times. Buy and hold. What varies is my allocation based on P/E multiples and GARP. My 8% is earning 4% in a money market account. I will deploy the cash as the opportunities arise. Besides the 8% I leave another 5% in longer term fixed income investments which I would sell to buy stocks at a discount like 2022 (Rebalance my portfolio). Longer term Cash/CDs/Bonds are poor investments vs Equities so I try to take advantage of "sales" when stocks drop more than 10% and especially when they drop 20%. My preference is to purchase growth at a reasonable price- equities with a 1-2% dividend if possible.
 
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caligas said:
Only 8% long in stocks?

What is the rest allocated in?
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Cash, paid off house, and more gold percentage allocation than even William Devane would recommend. I just don't like stocks in this overvalued environment. Doesn't mean they can't keep going up, I just see too much downside risk.

I think the savior for stocks should they crash is The Blade Theory of Markets which says the government and Fed will bury the country deeper in a hole just to try to prop up a bloated market. But all of that debt spending printing stimulus is great for gold anyway, so I'm not concerned about possibly missing out.

My best recommendation is to let nature take its course, crash or no crash, but we know politicians and the populace will never let that happen. We've seen the playbook too many times before.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Of course it is. Im healthy, I have a healthy family, I live in hands down the best, strongest and richest country in the world. I dont care what any statistics say. Ive been over there. Most of those supposed “greatest” countries suck, IMO. I have planned well in advance for the temporary hardships we may have to endure to get the country back on the right track. Mainly by living the opposite lifestyle of the average American. Living well below my means and buying into hedges against the stupidity of Washington politicians. Im sorry, but passing the buck on cleaning up our deficits and debts is no longer an option. Its not hard to understand. What IS hard to understand is why so many intelligent people refuse to face the reality of the situation.
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Let's increase defense spending while we are trying to do that. Lol
 
Interesting observation. Every strong significant Bitcoin breakout move since 2017, I count about 5, has been associated with strong overall market moves.

And Bitcoin appears to be in the early stages of a strong breakout move.
Hmmm 🤔
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
I believe we can hold out as a nation, but I don’t think the People can tolerate the volatility to get to that endpoint. China is going through a Depression (I think it started with Evergrande from a few years back). A full out trade war vs the worlds largest consumer and global reserve currency is not something I think they can presently handle.
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Looking at China’s 10Y bond yields (lowest in 10years) it seems like the Depression they are experiencing is worse than most can imagine. Seems like the current administration calculated this (or just got lucky lol) and China is ready to negotiate.

The concern for me is the US 10y yield ($TNX) is still rising. It could be that China and Japan (the number 1 and 2 holders of US bonds) are selling treasuries to protect their failing currencies (hence the $TNX going up). Either way, the US is in a better economic position than most, but it’s doesn’t mean it’s great. Let’s see the next 3D chess move by the Trump admin. lol
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Looking at China’s 10Y bond yields (lowest in 10years) it seems like the Depression they are experiencing is worse than most can imagine. Seems like the current administration calculated this (or just got lucky lol) and China is ready to negotiate.

The concern for me is the US 10y yield ($TNX) is still rising. It could be that China and Japan (the number 1 and 2 holders of US bonds) are selling treasuries to protect their failing currencies (hence the $TNX going up). Either way, the US is in a better economic position than most, but it’s doesn’t mean it’s great. Let’s see the next 3D chess move by the Trump admin. lol
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Nothing like accepting a 747 from a supporter of Terrorism. Probably filled with bugs, trackers, and maybe a bomb. Un****ingbelievable.
 
Guys Covid level opportunity just came and went while you guys were busy selling your pants. I hope you all start to buy back in now
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
You let anything that man says does or accept bother you? He’s gonna do whatever he wants. No different from the rest. lol
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I am fine with the plane..saves tax dollars and Trump would have been bribed by something else anyways..at least this saves us some money.

But he's only going to use it for 2 years (by the time that it's upgraded by the US military)? And then it gets donated to the library? What is the library going to use it for? Seems wasteful if we can't use it for 10-15 year
 
UscGhost said:
I am fine with the plane..saves tax dollars and Trump would have been bribed by something else anyways..at least this saves us some money.

But he's only going to use it for 2 years (by the time that it's upgraded by the US military)? And then it gets donated to the library? What is the library going to use it for? Seems wasteful if we can't use it for 10-15 year
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I think everyone is sort of ‘wink wink nudge nudge’ acknowledging it’s Trump’s personal plane after a couple years of ‘official use’.

You know it’s sort of the same as if a Democratic Senator or former president gets a nice deal on a beach house or a lake house in retirement. Or they go speak for a healthy sum. Trump gets a $400 million plane and a couple billion in crypto trading fees. It’s the same.
 
Dr. Rude said:
Nothing like accepting a 747 from a supporter of Terrorism. Probably filled with bugs, trackers, and maybe a bomb. Un****ingbelievable.
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Trump is a true wild card. His envoys also negotiated directly with Hamas to get Edan Alexander back. Likely realized that hostage return is not the priority for Netanyahu. Was a surprise to me but in some ways he’s a simple man with no boundaries ….America/Americans first. Biden would never have run around Netanyahu.
 
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Direct Laryngoscopy said:
Looking at China’s 10Y bond yields (lowest in 10years) it seems like the Depression they are experiencing is worse than most can imagine. Seems like the current administration calculated this (or just got lucky lol) and China is ready to negotiate.
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I don't have a lot of faith in most market prognostications, but one thing I have believed for a decade+ and still believe more strongly than ever is that China is ****ed.

The "inevitable rise" and long-term-planning-culture stuff you hear from people enamored with the place is bunk. They're ****ed, and won't ever get un-****ed short of a revolution and a couple generations of recovery.

Things are going to get a lot worse for China.

Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The concern for me is the US 10y yield ($TNX) is still rising. It could be that China and Japan (the number 1 and 2 holders of US bonds) are selling treasuries to protect their failing currencies (hence the $TNX going up). Either way, the US is in a better economic position than most, but it’s doesn’t mean it’s great. Let’s see the next 3D chess move by the Trump admin. lol
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Agreed. It's incredible but the dollar is still the least ugly girl in the room.
 
pgg said:
I don't have a lot of faith in most market prognostications, but one thing I have believed for a decade+ and still believe more strongly than ever is that China is ****ed.

The "inevitable rise" and long-term-planning-culture stuff you hear from people enamored with the place is bunk. They're ****ed, and won't ever get un-****ed short of a revolution and a couple generations of recovery.

Things are going to get a lot worse for China.


Agreed. It's incredible but the dollar is still the least ugly girl in the room.
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I found it very interesting that over just a few days there are bilateral talks going on. I thought these talks would take months, but maybe Xi is fearful of the pain that may come down the line if Trump holds the line. China is already in a very deflationary environament and no amount of stimulus is going to change that.
 
The Republican tax bill proposal raising the ‘debt limit’ by $4,000,000,000,000.00 is all you need to know about the dying system we’re presently in. The facade of Rs being conscious of tax payer money is bunk. They spend just as much as the Dems (but for what ) if not more. Protect yourself from currency debasement and probably to the opposite what CNBC says. Lmao
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The Republican tax bill proposal raising the ‘debt limit’ by $4,000,000,000,000.00 is all you need to know about the dying system we’re presently in. The facade of Rs being conscious of tax payer money is bunk. They spend just as much as the Dems (but for what ) if not more. Protect yourself from currency debasement and probably to the opposite what CNBC says. Lmao
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Did you really believe that republicans care about debt/deficit?
 
Splenda88 said:
Did you really believe that republicans care about debt/deficit?
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I thought it was pretty clear that he doesn't think that?

He and I differ greatly in our opinions on whether or not bitcoin (or crypto in general) are the solution, but he's not at all wrong about the endless spending Rs and Ds champion.
 
aneftp said:
There has for to be so much insider trading the the stock market wild swings.
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If you go back to every significant market drop there are always wild huge swings up and down till things settle out. It's expected, so the swings don't necessarily mean insider information is taking place, but definitely agree that would be a problem if people are being tipped off in advance of possible significant triggers to another major move.
 
pgg said:
I don't have a lot of faith in most market prognostications, but one thing I have believed for a decade+ and still believe more strongly than ever is that China is ****ed.

The "inevitable rise" and long-term-planning-culture stuff you hear from people enamored with the place is bunk. They're ****ed, and won't ever get un-****ed short of a revolution and a couple generations of recovery.

Things are going to get a lot worse for China.
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Agreed; I also think their demographics represent their destiny. A fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman is bad news.
 
pgg said:
I don't have a lot of faith in most market prognostications, but one thing I have believed for a decade+ and still believe more strongly than ever is that China is ****ed.



Things are going to get a lot worse for China.


Agreed. It's incredible but the dollar is still the least ugly girl in the room.
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China was a country or peasants 50 years ago and now among the most powerful and wealthiest countries in the world. No one really knows how their economy is doing. They're probably fine
 
PpfSuxTube said:
China was a country or peasants 50 years ago and now among the most powerful and wealthiest countries in the world. No one really knows how their economy is doing. They're probably fine
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Hey, we have to buy the MAGA narrative so people can say Trump is doing a GREAT JOB. Lol
 
PpfSuxTube said:
China was a country or peasants 50 years ago and now among the most powerful and wealthiest countries in the world. No one really knows how their economy is doing. They're probably fine
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Western side of China is still un developed I think. And still poor.
 
pgg said:
I don't have a lot of faith in most market prognostications, but one thing I have believed for a decade+ and still believe more strongly than ever is that China is ****ed.

The "inevitable rise" and long-term-planning-culture stuff you hear from people enamored with the place is bunk. They're ****ed, and won't ever get un-****ed short of a revolution and a couple generations of recovery.

Things are going to get a lot worse for China.


Agreed. It's incredible but the dollar is still the least ugly girl in the room.
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www.nytimes.com

There Are Two Chinas, and America Must Understand Both

The technological success that has captured the attention of many in the United States is one aspect of the Chinese economy. There’s another, gloomy one.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
PpfSuxTube said:
China was a country or peasants 50 years ago and now among the most powerful and wealthiest countries in the world. No one really knows how their economy is doing. They're probably fine
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They are not fine. They are in a state of deflation. Very difficult to fix, and historically bodes pretty poorly for any economic growth. The Chinese are fearful and dont spend.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Interesting. The 5 year cagr of the SP 500 is like 14-15% so if it continues at that pace thats a doubling. So btc would have to be over 200k by 2030 to beat it.
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Yes. The most common 2030-2032 prediction is $1 million per bitcoin. It will hit 200k here pretty soon. The number of available bitcoin on exchanges has dwindled. Once supply shock hits with all these countries and organizations amassing it, the price should go parabolic. Bitcoin is the single best performing asset class of the previous 15 years.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Yes. The most common 2030-2032 prediction is $1 million per bitcoin. It will hit 200k here pretty soon. The number of available bitcoin on exchanges has dwindled. Once supply shock hits with all these countries and organizations amassing it, the price should go parabolic. Bitcoin is the single best performing asset class of the previous 15 years.
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I will be happy for you if it does that. If by pretty soon you mean by end of 2025 I would be super surprised seeing how a few weeks ago people were calling the top was in and bear market had started.

I do feel the market will hit a new ATH in 2025. I think the top may already be in for btc but i hope im wrong. Tesla seems to be having a good run so hope that gets back to its highs later this year.
 
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finalpsychyear said:
I will be happy for you if it does that. If by pretty soon you mean by end of 2025 I would be super surprised seeing how a few weeks ago people were calling the top was in and bear market had started.

I do feel the market will hit a new ATH in 2025. I think the top may already be in for btc but i hope im wrong. Tesla seems to be having a good run so hope that gets back to its highs later this year.
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Bitcoin has a very predictable pattern of performance. At least so far. The market top in 2025 should be around sept-December and should be between 120-160k. My prediction is closer to 160k than 120.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Yes. The most common 2030-2032 prediction is $1 million per bitcoin. It will hit 200k here pretty soon. The number of available bitcoin on exchanges has dwindled. Once supply shock hits with all these countries and organizations amassing it, the price should go parabolic. Bitcoin is the single best performing asset class of the previous 15 years.
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I agree it’s the best asset since it was literally $0

The issue is what will it be in 10 years?

What’s been the best performing asset in the last 5 years? Nvidia or bitcoin?


“But while Bitcoin has been gaining attention, Nvidia’s stock has been outperforming it. On Nov. 14, Nvidia’s share price closed at $146.27, a staggering 2,768% increase over the previous five years. To put things in perspective, Bitcoin has increased by roughly 973% during that time, which is remarkable but still significantly less than Nvidia’s enormous growth”
 
aneftp said:
I agree it’s the best asset since it was literally $0

The issue is what will it be in 10 years?

What’s been the best performing asset in the last 5 years? Nvidia or bitcoin?


“But while Bitcoin has been gaining attention, Nvidia’s stock has been outperforming it. On Nov. 14, Nvidia’s share price closed at $146.27, a staggering 2,768% increase over the previous five years. To put things in perspective, Bitcoin has increased by roughly 973% during that time, which is remarkable but still significantly less than Nvidia’s enormous growth”
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Sure and mstr is up 35x. I look at it as btc vs index funds not individual stocks. Which one will double sooner is the best investment so long as you can handle the volatility the answer is clear. For the weak hands its def index funds and i'll let the posts on this thread speak for themselves.

That being said diversifcation is still the key and no one should be 100% in anything.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Sure and mstr is up 35x. I look at it as btc vs index funds not individual stocks. Which one will double sooner is the best investment so long as you can handle the volatility the answer is clear. For the weak hands its def index funds and i'll let the posts on this thread speak for themselves.

That being said diversifcation is still the key and no one should be 100% in anything.
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Some people put all their chips into one pot and are successful. It’s always the 80/20 rule with index investing vs individual picks. The index wins 80% of the time.

The risk takers are the 20%.

Works for some. Doesn’t work for others.
 
finalpsychyear said:
I will be happy for you if it does that. If by pretty soon you mean by end of 2025 I would be super surprised seeing how a few weeks ago people were calling the top was in and bear market had started.

I do feel the market will hit a new ATH in 2025. I think the top may already be in for btc but i hope im wrong. Tesla seems to be having a good run so hope that gets back to its highs later this year.
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Past performance is a good indicator of future performance but far from perfect. As total capitalization increases it gets harder and harder to keep that same level of growth till price acceleration eventually shifts to an entirely less angle of slope, or just simply starts declining.

But looking at past performance and projecting it forward Bitcoin has recently reach that prime position of consolidation and breakout where honestly if it could keep up past rates of acceleration it could easily hit $250,000 and even significantly further by year end.

But again to emphasize, hypergrowth at those rates in only months is far easier to accomplish going from 1100 to 10,000+, and then 11,000 to 60,000, which it did, than it is to go from 80,000 to say 400,000. If it could actually reach the top side of the channel again that's pretty mind blowing, but that's a huge ask.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Past performance is a good indicator of future performance but far from perfect. As total capitalization increases it gets harder and harder to keep that same level of growth till price acceleration eventually shifts to an entirely less angle of slope, or just simply starts declining.

But looking at past performance and projecting it forward Bitcoin has recently reach that prime position of consolidation and breakout where honestly if it could keep up past rates of acceleration it could easily hit $250,000 and even significantly further by year end.

But again to emphasize, hypergrowth at those rates in only months is far easier to accomplish going from 1100 to 10,000+, and then 11,000 to 60,000, which it did, than it is to go from 80,000 to say 400,000. If it could actually reach the top side of the channel again that's pretty mind blowing, but that's a huge ask.
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Its had an exponential diminishing return something like a 20x to 3x the last two cycles. Call me crazy but a .5-1x is where we already are from prev peak so i dont think theres much more thats going to happen this cycle. And if it only goes up 1x then 2029 will be like 0.3x and people will lose interest but will be more stable.

I hope i am wrong but i thought the same thing in 2021 when i was hearing 100k+ during that cycle.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Its had an exponential diminishing return something like a 20x to 3x the last two cycles. Call me crazy but a .5-1x is where we already are from prev peak so i dont think theres much more thats going to happen this cycle. And if it only goes up 1x then 2029 will be like 0.3x and people will lose interest but will be more stable.

I hope i am wrong but i thought the same thing in 2021 when i was hearing 100k+ during that cycle.
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Only people who dont understand bitcoin say this kind of stuff. There will be a supply shock here in the next few years once all the bitcoin is all bought up and the price will skyrocket.

My portfolio is diversified but Im a bitcoin maximalist. Once you understand the history of money and monetary policy its impossible not to see the writing on the wall.

Bitcoin is not worth 100k. Its priceless. A currency which cannot be debased, is decentralized, operates on consensus, is portable, liquid, un-censorable, durable, etc etc. Priceless. Look I always say follow the money. Theres a good reason why microstrategy and blackrock are buying like lunatics.
 
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TeslaCoil said:
Bitcoin is not worth 100k. Its priceless. A currency which cannot be debased, is decentralized, operates on consensus, is portable, liquid, un-censorable, durable, etc etc. Priceless. Look I always say follow the money. Theres a good reason why microstrategy and blackrock are buying like lunatics.
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Ok, but why bitcoin, and not some other crypto? This is what always gets me. Many other cryptocurrencies have those same characteristics, and also are more energy-efficient and capable of more transactions per second on their network. So, why is BTC better? It seems like it is truly just name recognition and FOMO. When all the bitcoin are bought up...why not just switch to another coin, which will drive down demand for butcoin, and therefore price?
 
psychbender said:
Ok, but why bitcoin, and not some other crypto? This is what always gets me. Many other cryptocurrencies have those same characteristics, and also are more energy-efficient and capable of more transactions per second on their network. So, why is BTC better? It seems like it is truly just name recognition and FOMO. When all the bitcoin are bought up...why not just switch to another coin, which will drive down demand for butcoin, and therefore price?
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Bitcoin is the oldest and so far most durable. Many are not decentralized, many dont have the same level of programming support. I do think other cryptos have potential to do well. Mostly the specific use case ones like xrp (which updates swift and the global banking system), ethereum (decentralized apps) etc. None are quite like bitcoin, though. Its an excellent store of value, like gold. Part of it is its infrastructure and the other part is that it was the first and has a proven track record of durability.

In order to fully appreciate it you have to understand the programming about it. Its the most basic a pure blockchain you can have with no back doors, and little to no vulnerabilities.
 
But how many entities in the developed world are accepting it for transactions? Is that number growing? How much is it being used as just a hedge against currency debasement, momentum/speculative play, portfolio diversifier, etc. I don’t have a position, just trying to understand the belief in it. Could it just wind up no different the real estate in the metaverse and meme tokens?
 
TeslaCoil said:
Only people who dont understand bitcoin say this kind of stuff. There will be a supply shock here in the next few years once all the bitcoin is all bought up and the price will skyrocket.

My portfolio is diversified but Im a bitcoin maximalist. Once you understand the history of money and monetary policy its impossible not to see the writing on the wall.

Bitcoin is not worth 100k. Its priceless. A currency which cannot be debased, is decentralized, operates on consensus, is portable, liquid, un-censorable, durable, etc etc. Priceless. Look I always say follow the money. Theres a good reason why microstrategy and blackrock are buying like lunatics.
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Im a believer i was just giving a weak contrarian argument. I feel bad for people who don't get it. But i believe in the mantra you will buy bitcoin at the price you deserve. For most maybe on here, they'll get it bc strategy will be on the S and P 500 and part of their index funds in the near future.

My sandbagged hopes were hitting 100k this bull cycle so i cannot ask anything more from btc although my crystal ball says 120-130 peak at some point. My sandbag for 2029 is 200k.

We haven't even entered QE just slowed QT so i do feel its going to be fireworks conclusion for both stocks and risk assets sometime in 2025.
 
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