Lifestyle inflation and monthly expenses

[cyanide12345678]

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The last few months I've been feeling like our net worth has barely been increasing so I finally connected all my credit card accounts to emoney. I've always followed my net worth as an indicator of how well we've been doing, and as long as net worth went up, I haven't cared about expenses and now all of a sudden net worth has come to a crawl especially since both my wife and I became part time.

Would love for others to post their monthly expenses:

Last 30 days we've spent 13k. Out of this 9.5k is fixed costs (mortgage, child care, utilities, car payments, gas, insurances).

I'm very surprised to learn that we spend almost 10k every month on fixed things without even counting for food/travel/restaurants/entertainment/amazon/shopping expenses. Man...gone are the days where we spent less than 5k a month on everything during residency. Gone is my delusion that we spend $10k/month on average.

What do your expenses look like?

 

[BoardingDoc]

We live in a VHCOL area. We spend about 17k/mo on average. Fixed costs are around 13k. That said, this includes several loan payments that I'm paying off as slowly as possible. E.g. student loan payment at 2.5%, solar panel install loan at 0.99% etc. When the debt is gone in about 6 more years, it will drop by about 4k a month.

I never batted an eye at this number last year. Now I'm a fellow making 85k so yay there. Moonlighting and a spouse who works to the rescue.

 

[skougess]

Me and my wife’s combined income last year: $400k.

Live in LCOL area. No kids.

We save $6k monthly in investments/retirements.
Paying $5k monthly in student loans (electively to get them paid off faster).

Spend the rest on bills/fun.

 

[cyanide12345678]

We live in a VHCOL area. We spend about 17k/mo on average. Fixed costs are around 13k. That said, this includes several loan payments that I'm paying off as slowly as possible. E.g. student loan payment at 2.5%, solar panel install loan at 0.99% etc. When the debt is gone in about 6 more years, it will drop by about 4k a month.

I never batted an eye at this number last year. Now I'm a fellow making 85k so yay there. Moonlighting and a spouse who works to the rescue.

Actually pretty impressive to Stay at 17k in a vhcol area. Mine is at Midwest in a relatively low to medium cost of living

 

[namethatsmell]

I’m also in a VHCOL area and burn is ~17k most months. Mortgage and childcare are about tied for our top two expenses.

Here’s a bunch of random thoughts, hopefully some of which are helpful …

Kids are 1 and 3 and childcare is brutally expensive at stage of life ( and we have no family here to help out). It was initially hard for me to accept how costly this is, but I finally came to terms with the fact that this is just a phase of life (like paying off a loan) and the value we get from having good/safe/reliable childcare is tremendous. Our childcare costs could easily be 30% higher in our area, but we researched extensively and actually networked our way into finally finding a set up we’re really happy. In the next few years when both kids are in daycare/school things those costs will go way down.

Our food budget for a while was killing us (kids love expensive fresh fruit) but we started using the Walmart+ grocery delivery service, which is actually a great deal and save a ton of time. We supplement with targeted periodic runs to some nearby fairly-priced stores (for meats/produce) and Costco.
We also used to spend a ton of money eating out/doing takeout since my wife and I don’t really enjoy meal planning. After trying a bunch of the meal kit delivery services, we’ve stuck with Home Chef for the last few years and it strikes a good balance of being tasty and fairly healthy, requires minimal prep work, and usually costs $9-13 bucks a person/meal.

One wrinkle for us is that we may be moving houses in the next one to two years, so we’ve been keeping a decent amount of cash on hand for a potential down payment. Not being able to have some of that coin in the market all along has sucked, but the positive is that the conundrum of what to do with that cash led me to discover the Fidelity CMA account. It basically functions like a checking account, but you get to keep all the cash in Fidelity MMFs, many of which yield 5%. We now use it for virtually all of our cash (including E fund) and for the time being it return in the vicinity of 1k/month. Other FinCorps have similar products, and you may consider checking something like this out.

Some other low-energy money things we do to get a bit of cash back from our spending include using the Bank of America custom cash cards to get 5.2% back on online purchases (just park ~100k of stock at Merrill to get that %) and using Costco travel stuff, Rakuten or Walmart+ travel when they’re having a deal. These things aren’t financial game changers by any means, but will probably save us ~3k this year.

Anyway, I wouldn’t let a few months of data regarding your net worth sway you one way or the other… It really is such a short period of time. Sure, we all like to see our NW going up consistently, but we of course know it often doesn’t work that way. In my humble opinion, if you’re able to save in the ballpark of 20% most years then don’t sweat your spending decisions as long as you feel they’re rational. Or if you’re CoastFI (or close) then it’s OK to loosen the reins a bit and just ignore your NW for another 6 months before looking again.

 

[Emapp20177]

Fidelity CMA

Why this instead of an FDIC insured HYSA? I don't think Fidelity is a particularly high risk place to have money, but still.

 

[namethatsmell]

Why this instead of an FDIC insured HYSA? I don't think Fidelity is a particularly high risk place to have money, but still.

Combination of the following…

1) I’m married and our finances are pooled. I want my wife to have equal control. I never came across a good HYSA that offered a fully joint product
2) I couldn’t find as good of a sustained after-tax ROI in a HYSA that offered joint checking functions without fees
3) CMA’s core sweep is actually FDIC insured (though only pays ~3%) last I looked. This did come in handy though when it looked like the politicians were going to break the buck and I briefly moved cash there for ~10d while that drama played out
4) Fidelity’s customer service is excellent and they’re too big to fail

 

[CliveStaples]

Mortgage - 5k/mo
Commercial business venture - 2.5k/mo
Water/Waste/Electric/Internet/Streaming - 350/mo
Homeowner's Insurance/Disability Insurance/Property Taxes (all of these are paid yearly in big chunks, but are probably worth breaking down by month as fixed costs) - 1.6k/mo
Tax-advantaged retirement account savings - 7.5k/mo

The short mortgage (it'll be paid off before I am 50) and the investments make up the majority of the fixed spending, at least. With the tax advantages of retirement account savings and the mortgage interest deduction combined with the state tax deduction beating out the standard deduction (and making it a lot more fun to donate charitably when you know you're always itemizing), I feel good about my financial situation.

 

[goodoldalky]

It's definitely interesting to see the lifestyle inflation. It's very nearly an irresistible force, and you 100% cannot do anything to stop it if you have kids.

We *think* we are pretty frugal, and although we live in a VHCOL area, squirreled away money for years. Paid off 250K in student loans, bought a 3br house, and really didn't spend much for a while.

Then, kids came, now we have 4. Wife never made much even working FT and stays at home.

We still live in that same 3 br house, drive paid off 13 year old Toyota and 6 year old Honda, and have about 300k left on our mortgage with no other debt. But still our expenses are so high compared to what they used to be.
On average, our fixed expenses are 10k/month. We spend 5-6K per month on discretionary items.

Income averages 20K after-tax/maxed 401, etc., which is about what I made 10 years ago. Although today, I work more hours and have more jobs than I did back then.

My advice, save as much as you can as early as you can, especially if you have kids. There is nothing on this planet more expensive than having kids. I have found it much more challenging to save as the years have gone by.

 

[wamcp]

It's definitely interesting to see the lifestyle inflation. It's very nearly an irresistible force, and you 100% cannot do anything to stop it if you have kids.

We *think* we are pretty frugal, and although we live in a VHCOL area, squirreled away money for years. Paid off 250K in student loans, bought a 3br house, and really didn't spend much for a while.

Then, kids came, now we have 4. Wife never made much even working FT and stays at home.

We still live in that same 3 br house, drive paid off 13 year old Toyota and 6 year old Honda, and have about 300k left on our mortgage with no other debt. But still our expenses are so high compared to what they used to be.
On average, our fixed expenses are 10k/month. We spend 5-6K per month on discretionary items.

Income averages 20K after-tax/maxed 401, etc., which is about what I made 10 years ago. Although today, I work more hours and have more jobs than I did back then.

My advice, save as much as you can as early as you can, especially if you have kids. There is nothing on this planet more expensive than having kids. I have found it much more challenging to save as the years have gone by.

We have 3 kids under age 5 and yeah expenses have rocketed up.

It’s not even lifestyle inflation. Your lifestyle didn’t become more lavish. In fact it got worse, you didn’t get a bigger house or bigger car to accommodate the larger family. You are getting “less per capita” despite the increased costs.

Just the cost of raising families these days.

 

[Tenk]

I’ve definitely noticed that portions are getting smaller the same as prices going up on a lot of things.

 

[JAFERD_MD]

Undergrad in HCOL area: ~$8000/yr (roommates, no car, hit up a lot of free food on campus)
Medical school in VLCOL area: $12k-15k/yr (had roommates some years, had a car)
Residency in VHCOL: $30-35k/yr (no roommate but free meals)

Each step of the way I kept wondering how people could spend so much, because I was pretty content with the way things were.

Now I have about $14k/mo fixed expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities, childcare) in a VHCOL area. Like OP, never really paid attention to a monthly budget as long as net worth is going up. But since I've always been frugal (and probably considered cheap), spouse and I still easily save $25k/mo incl employer matches. I keep putting off talking to any more financial advisors, but we would benefit from someone running the numbers and telling us to loosen the belt. Just feels weird since I keep thinking of some catastrophic future scenario so I want to hoard and invest the cash. Immigrant family/scarcity mindset, I guess.

 

[goodoldalky]

Undergrad in HCOL area: ~$8000/yr (roommates, no car, hit up a lot of free food on campus)
Medical school in VLCOL area: $12k-15k/yr (had roommates some years, had a car)
Residency in VHCOL: $30-35k/yr (no roommate but free meals)

Each step of the way I kept wondering how people could spend so much, because I was pretty content with the way things were.

Now I have about $14k/mo fixed expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities, childcare) in a VHCOL area. Like OP, never really paid attention to a monthly budget as long as net worth is going up. But since I've always been frugal (and probably considered cheap), spouse and I still easily save $25k/mo incl employer matches. I keep putting off talking to any more financial advisors, but we would benefit from someone running the numbers and telling us to loosen the belt. Just feels weird since I keep thinking of some catastrophic future scenario so I want to hoard and invest the cash. Immigrant family/scarcity mindset, I guess.

You're saving 25k per month?

 

[Brigade4Radiant]

I realized I have spent way too much money on DoorDash no more for me and I'll be going to Aldi lol

 

[cyanide12345678]

I realized I have spent way too much money on DoorDash no more for me and I'll be going to Aldi lol

We've switched to Aldi. Probably grocery expenses dropped 20-30% easily. Aldi is so cheap.

 

[JAFERD_MD]

You're saving 25k per month?

2x 401ks 72k (employer match + employee maxed out)
2x backdoor Roths 14k
1x 457b 23k
1x 529 10k
Taxable brokerage 180k (used to be more, then kid came along)

Like I said, we’ve been pretty happy with our lifestyle every step of the way, but I recognize that my relationship with money is not healthy. Currently waiting on Die with Zero to be available at the library instead of outright buying it, and for Prime Day to splurge on a Kindle. Haha.

 

[xaelia]

Yeh, OP wondering if spending >$10k a month is "typical" – for sure, adds up quickly. As with everyone else, the housing payments are what dominate our budget, followed by private schools. Definitely makes the "dual-income household" more attractive than the alternative, despite the stresses and logistics.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Undergrad in HCOL area: ~$8000/yr (roommates, no car, hit up a lot of free food on campus)
Medical school in VLCOL area: $12k-15k/yr (had roommates some years, had a car)
Residency in VHCOL: $30-35k/yr (no roommate but free meals)

Each step of the way I kept wondering how people could spend so much, because I was pretty content with the way things were.

Now I have about $14k/mo fixed expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities, childcare) in a VHCOL area. Like OP, never really paid attention to a monthly budget as long as net worth is going up. But since I've always been frugal (and probably considered cheap), spouse and I still easily save $25k/mo incl employer matches. I keep putting off talking to any more financial advisors, but we would benefit from someone running the numbers and telling us to loosen the belt. Just feels weird since I keep thinking of some catastrophic future scenario so I want to hoard and invest the cash. Immigrant family/scarcity mindset, I guess.

25k/mo increase in net worth is great.

Between 7/2022 we went from 1.04M net worth to 2.01M in networth by 3/2024. So ~ 1M gain in 21 months, which is ~ 47k/month of net worth increase. In fact, between 7/2022 and 7/2023 we gained 680k in networth ~ 56k/mo. I don't even know how that happened....

And then in the last 4 months - I've gained like 35-40k in net worth total ~ 10k/mo. Granted in April and May I paid 77K of extra taxes that I hadn't paid in 2023. But the last 4 months are definitely bothering me -_- Income has dropped. Kid expenses are up. Options account has been stagnant or maybe even a little negative - previously was going up almost 20k a month.

I literally can't even figure out why there's been such a dramatic slow down in our wealth building in a year.

 

[goodoldalky]

25k/mo increase in net worth is great.

Between 7/2022 we went from 1.04M net worth to 2.01M in networth by 3/2024. So ~ 1M gain in 21 months, which is ~ 47k/month of net worth increase. In fact, between 7/2022 and 7/2023 we gained 680k in networth ~ 56k/mo. I don't even know how that happened....

And then in the last 4 months - I've gained like 35-40k in net worth total ~ 10k/mo. Granted in April and May I paid 77K of extra taxes that I hadn't paid in 2023. But the last 4 months are definitely bothering me -_- Income has dropped. Kid expenses are up. Options account has been stagnant or maybe even a little negative - previously was going up almost 20k a month.

I literally can't even figure out why there's been such a dramatic slow down in our wealth building in a year.

S&P up almost 35% from 7/22 to 3/24 but only up around 5% since April (not sure how you're invested, DJIA is only 2%).

Market returns matter way more than your contributions once you've got a sizable portfolio. Certainly your options account seems like a big part of this.

 

[JAFERD_MD]

25k/mo increase in net worth is great.

Between 7/2022 we went from 1.04M net worth to 2.01M in networth by 3/2024. So ~ 1M gain in 21 months, which is ~ 47k/month of net worth increase. In fact, between 7/2022 and 7/2023 we gained 680k in networth ~ 56k/mo. I don't even know how that happened....

And then in the last 4 months - I've gained like 35-40k in net worth total ~ 10k/mo. Granted in April and May I paid 77K of extra taxes that I hadn't paid in 2023. But the last 4 months are definitely bothering me -_- Income has dropped. Kid expenses are up. Options account has been stagnant or maybe even a little negative - previously was going up almost 20k a month.

I literally can't even figure out why there's been such a dramatic slow down in our wealth building in a year.

Are you me? +650K in 12 mo, of which only 350K are from brute savings (including some bonuses and a financial windfall). The market has been good to us. I don't count house equity or appreciation in our net worth but I check Zillow and Redfin, for what it's worth, every so often.

Both of us are working 40-60hrs/wk each and have tried to cut back but our jobs don't allow part-time. At the same time, they're so cush and chill that we can't leave. A truly terrible problem to have.

 

[Emapp20177]

We've switched to Aldi. Probably grocery expenses dropped 20-30% easily. Aldi is so cheap.

Grocery Outlet in my area. Sure, it's ghetto, but they sell organic, grass fed beef and a bunch of other high quality items for half the price of Whole Foods.

 

[cyanide12345678]

S&P up almost 35% from 7/22 to 3/24 but only up around 5% since April (not sure how you're invested, DJIA is only 2%).

Market returns matter way more than your contributions once you've got a sizable portfolio. Certainly your options account seems like a big part of this.

A small part of my net worth is dependent on Sp500 so my returns are surprisingly not as dependent on SPY. I guess I kind of know why my net worth went up quite a bit between 7/2022 and 3/2024. My taxable brokerage account (aka my options account) gained 111% between 7/22 and 3/24. Most of those gains were from options on EWZ (brazilian stock market). From 3/24 to today, it's only gained 3%. I'm lagging the SPY YTD actually.

So only 20% of my networth is in retirement accounts which are all in 2055 vanguard target date funds - which are basically 50% ish VTI (50% VTI, 40% VXUS, 10% BND), so in reality, barely 10% of my actual networth sits in the total US stock market - which is unfortunate since US markets have had quite a decade.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Grocery Outlet in my area. Sure, it's ghetto, but they sell organic, grass fed beef and a bunch of other high quality items for half the price of Whole Foods.

Aldi isn't even ghetto I think. It's basically owned by the same parent company of trader joes. Only hip people with money like going to Trader joes I feel lol.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Are you me? +650K in 12 mo, of which only 350K are from brute savings (including some bonuses and a financial windfall). The market has been good to us. I don't count house equity or appreciation in our net worth but I check Zillow and Redfin, for what it's worth, every so often.

Both of us are working 40-60hrs/wk each and have tried to cut back but our jobs don't allow part-time. At the same time, they're so cush and chill that we can't leave. A truly terrible problem to have.

Cush and chill ER? Or some other specialty? Very few people would describe an ER job as cush and chill.

I can't imagine working 60 hours a week again.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yeh, OP wondering if spending >$10k a month is "typical" – for sure, adds up quickly. As with everyone else, the housing payments are what dominate our budget, followed by private schools. Definitely makes the "dual-income household" more attractive than the alternative, despite the stresses and logistics.

I mean if you think about it ....A 13-15k post tax income per month is the equivalent of around 235k pre-tax income.

So we're at a point where we need 235k of income per year for break even. That's like 90th percentile of household income.

So yeah...I need to be at the 90th percentile income to BREAK EVEN with our expenses. Ridiculous. I used to live on $315/mo rent and $50/month of food when I moved to the US 17 years ago -_-

Man...I'm definitely not having a 3rd kid 😛

 

[xaelia]

So we're at a point where we need 235k of income per year for break even. That's like 90th percentile of household income.

Well – yes and no.

I think just about any of us could have the same house (or nicer!) – but further away – for about half the cost. Halving – or better – the housing part of the monthly commitment goes a long way towards changing the income requirements to stay level.

Some of us leave that housing budget up by choice, though – expecting to make more money in the market or interest-bearing accounts than we'd save by paying down a mortgage.

 

[sloh]

A small part of my net worth is dependent on Sp500 so my returns are surprisingly not as dependent on SPY. I guess I kind of know why my net worth went up quite a bit between 7/2022 and 3/2024. My taxable brokerage account (aka my options account) gained 111% between 7/22 and 3/24. Most of those gains were from options on EWZ (brazilian stock market). From 3/24 to today, it's only gained 3%. I'm lagging the SPY YTD actually.

So only 20% of my networth is in retirement accounts which are all in 2055 vanguard target date funds - which are basically 50% ish VTI (50% VTI, 40% VXUS, 10% BND), so in reality, barely 10% of my actual networth sits in the total US stock market - which is unfortunate since US markets have had quite a decade.

After going through this, do you think this is a case to be made for just keeping investments simple for physicians? Work hard at primary job and make money, dump into VTSAX?

 

[cyanide12345678]

After going through this, do you think this is a case to be made for just keeping investments simple for physicians? Work hard at primary job and make money, dump into VTSAX?

Dumping everything in vtsax is essentially recency bias. The past decade has been so damn good that it won’t surprise me if there’s a decade of under performance.

Past performance does not indicate future returns.

I would be very very hesitant to dump everything in a stock market trading at a Schiller PE ratio of 36

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 38.03, a change of -0.17 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Not to mention that the buffet indicator sits at 1.7 standard deviations above its historical average.

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

The Buffett Indicator is currently 57.05% higher than its historical average, signifying that the stock market is Overvalued.

www.currentmarketvaluation.com

And not to mention just the political decline of the country, i mean have you looked at the presidential candidates 😂😂😂, plus uncontrolled national debt which has truly started skyrocketing, the fact that usd is no longer the gold standard for oil transactions. The dominance of the US is waning. The Brics nations are thinking of coming out with a competing currency too. All empires eventually fade - whether it be the Roman’s, the ottomans, the British etc.

Contrast that to foreign stock markets like Brazil trading at P/E ratios of around 9-10 and giving 7-8 percent dividends.

I’m not predicting the future. I just personally would not put 100% in the US stock market.

But yes, most physicians should just do vti and vxus.

Having said that, ewz has dropped from 32 to 28, lyft has dropped from 20 to 13, mpw has dropped from 6 to 4 - these 3 were my biggest holdings. Despite these 20-30 percent drops in 2-3 months, my portfolio has remained stagnant. That’s actually pretty impressive and only because my puts are so so far out of the money. The moment there’s any sign of reversal - my account will jump up again.

For example - i gain 27k in 35 days on my lyft and mpw positions alone as long as they stop dropping and don’t fall another 30 percent in 26 more trading days (36 days including weekends). I don’t need anything glorious from them - i just need them to not drop another 30 percent 😂 I’ve been stuck in that 80-95k ytd gain range for 3 months. If things finally behave, I’ll be at 120k ytd profit (17%).

But most doctors - just vti and vxus.

 

[EctopicFetus]

Dumping everything in vtsax is essentially recency bias. The past decade has been so damn good that it won’t surprise me if there’s a decade of under performance.

Past performance does not indicate future returns.

I would be very very hesitant to dump everything in a stock market trading at a Schiller PE ratio of 36

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 38.03, a change of -0.17 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Not to mention that the buffet indicator sits at 1.7 standard deviations above its historical average.

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

The Buffett Indicator is currently 57.05% higher than its historical average, signifying that the stock market is Overvalued.

www.currentmarketvaluation.com

And not to mention just the political decline of the country, i mean have you looked at the presidential candidates 😂😂😂, plus uncontrolled national debt which has truly started skyrocketing, the fact that usd is no longer the gold standard for oil transactions. The dominance of the US is waning. The Brics nations are thinking of coming out with a competing currency too. All empires eventually fade - whether it be the Roman’s, the ottomans, the British etc.

Contrast that to foreign stock markets like Brazil trading at P/E ratios of around 9-10 and giving 7-8 percent dividends.

I’m not predicting the future. I just personally would not put 100% in the US stock market.

But yes, most physicians should just do vti and vxus.

Having said that, ewz has dropped from 32 to 28, lyft has dropped from 20 to 13, mpw has dropped from 6 to 4 - these 3 were my biggest holdings. Despite these 20-30 percent drops in 2-3 months, my portfolio has remained stagnant. That’s actually pretty impressive and only because my puts are so so far out of the money. The moment there’s any sign of reversal - my account will jump up again.

For example - i gain 27k in 35 days on my lyft and mpw positions alone as long as they stop dropping and don’t fall another 30 percent in 26 more trading days (36 days including weekends). I don’t need anything glorious from them - i just need them to not drop another 30 percent 😂 I’ve been stuck in that 80-95k ytd gain range for 3 months. If things finally behave, I’ll be at 120k ytd profit (17%).

But most doctors - just vti and vxus.

This is a dangerous approach as well. It is well accepted that timing the market is not a winning strategy. Reality is that much more money has been lost than gained trying to outsmart the market. Keep in mind overall market forces are positive. Will it be down in 1 year? Maybe.. 5 years? Probably not.. 10 years certainly higher than today.

I mean it can be very simple as you can just put your money in SPY or also split some with the nasdaq 100 and russ2k.

I know folks who went all cash before trump was elected and missed a huge rally, others who went cash during the covid downturn, yet others who shorted the market during those same times.

As physicians we earn a lot which will allow us to save a lot and we do not need to outperform the stock market. If you want better returns long term invest in real estate or start your own business.

 

[cyanide12345678]

This is a dangerous approach as well. It is well accepted that timing the market is not a winning strategy. Reality is that much more money has been lost than gained trying to outsmart the market. Keep in mind overall market forces are positive. Will it be down in 1 year? Maybe.. 5 years? Probably not.. 10 years certainly higher than today.

I mean it can be very simple as you can just put your money in SPY or also split some with the nasdaq 100 and russ2k.

I know folks who went all cash before trump was elected and missed a huge rally, others who went cash during the covid downturn, yet others who shorted the market during those same times.

As physicians we earn a lot which will allow us to save a lot and we do not need to outperform the stock market. If you want better returns long term invest in real estate or start your own business.

10 years certainly higher? Certainly is a very big word. In the last 100 years, 3 entire decades had negative returns, the most recent stagnant decade was the 2000s. When 30 percent out of the last 10 decades were negative, living through a decade of poor returns should actually be an expectation in a lifetime

There has not been any 30 year time period that has been negative. So most likely there won’t be one. But again past performance does not indicate future returns.

I don’t remember the exact literature, but there’s actually a decent amount of data showing lower forward returns when the schiller ratio is significantly above its historical average. The over exuberance may continue for quite a bit, no one really knows how long the mania will continue, but by almost all valuation metrics the US market is over valued. My response isn’t based on emotion and sentiment, it is based on 100s of years of data showing low historical returns when valuation metrics are where we are today.

Here….see the attached graph, if past performance persists and mimics the last 40 years then you are looking at annualized returns of about 2-3 percent over the next decade.

 

[EctopicFetus]

10 years certainly higher? Certainly is a very big word. In the last 100 years, 3 entire decades had negative returns, the most recent stagnant decade was the 2000s. When 30 percent out of the last 10 decades were negative, living through a decade of poor returns should actually be an expectation in a lifetime

There has not been any 30 year time period that has been negative. So most likely there won’t be one. But again past performance does not indicate future returns.

I don’t remember the exact literature, but there’s actually a decent amount of data showing lower forward returns when the schiller ratio is significantly above its historical average. The over exuberance may continue for quite a bit, no one really knows how long the mania will continue, but by almost all valuation metrics the US market is over valued. My response isn’t based on emotion and sentiment, it is based on 100s of years of data showing low historical returns when valuation metrics are where we are today.

Here….see the attached graph, if past performance persists and mimics the last 40 years then you are looking at annualized returns of about 2-3 percent over the next decade.

even 2-3% is fine. Ill point out that just a few years ago all the experts said expect lower returns (under 5%) for the next decade. That hasn't held true.

Who knows, the world could end tomorrow, a nuclear apocalypse. All that being said, very smart people have failed to time the market.. The other counter is the move to index investing means money will continue to flow into the sp500 stocks. Maybe in a decade it is down. I wouldn't take the bet. What is missed is even if the sp500 is down 10% then you as an investor are tracking the majority of society so relatively you are in the same spot. If you guess right you are ahead of the masses. Guess wrong and you fall behind. Guessing is not wise when you have won the financial lottery with a very high paying job. Some people are very $$ astute with regards to investing in the stock market. As a rule those people arent doctors. If they were that good they wouldn't be doctors. Way more money to be made investing money than being a physician if you are that good at it.

I play around with individual stocks, options, crypto etc. I have some intimate experience in the markets from before medical school. 99% of docs don't know a call from a put. A huge majority don't know they should avoid high load mutual funds.

There is value of getting more into bonds as you approach retirement. I wont be using that strategy. reality is no one has any clue as to what the future holds. historic p/e ratios are long gone. Tech companies dominate today, the old sp500 was more traditional businesses. The math of tech (and eventually AI) will change investing and expectations (in my opinion).

 

[skougess]

@cyanide12345678 thanks for bringing up the Schiller PE ratio, I didn’t realize how out of hand it had gotten. I do a fair bit of international index investing, but I do wish US equities would correct or at least calm down while I’m in my prime buying years.

 

[goodoldalky]

The reality is that no one is able to predict what happens to any underlying security in a market. Nobody can predict what will happen to an entire market, either; except to say that if your investment horizon is more than a decade, all evidence suggests you should broadly index your investments and leave them alone.

I used to do options trading and invested a lot in individual securities. Doing that right is another job that has a single-digit percent chance of helping my future self, and a 90+% chance of doing the opposite.

 

[anonperson]

This chart is a bit dated but gives an idea at the general top performing and bottom performing sectors over a 20 year period.

Main takeaways:

It is difficult to predict winners and losers
The market is unpredictable

As a physician, you don't need to hit home runs to win the game aka gambling on single stocks etc. If you just go for singles/doubles aka invest in low cost broad market funds, you can win the game (end baseball analogy ).

 

[retro]

Reading this thread def makes me think getting married and having kids complicate things vs. being single. I'm 36 yo single male living in a VHCOL city. Majority of my expense is rent, which is ~ $2,800 / mo. I give about $2,000 / mo to my parents so they can use it however they want it (they don't need the help, but just giving back what I received from them so far). Maybe $3,000 / mo in all other expenses such as electricity, transportation (don't have a car), eating out, taking girls out to fancy dinners, etc. I'm able to save ~ $11,000 / mo after all this. I'm currently about 1.4 mil net worth, but I plan on getting married and having kids in the future so that'll def add to my expenditure. Basically, I have no clue when I'll achieve FIRE. It all depends on whether I marry a rich wife or a broke wife.

 

[eyeeye_captain]

I’ll try to cheer everybody up a little. There was a time in my life when my fixed monthly expenses were $35-37k. Bought into my practice with an eye-watering loan at a 7% rate. Could have spread it out over more time, but I did my best to get that noose off my family’s neck ASAP. When you feel the squeeze, trust me, it can be worse, hang in there.

 

[goodoldalky]

Reading this thread def makes me think getting married and having kids complicate things vs. being single. I'm 36 yo single male living in a VHCOL city. Majority of my expense is rent, which is ~ $2,800 / mo. I give about $2,000 / mo to my parents so they can use it however they want it (they don't need the help, but just giving back what I received from them so far). Maybe $3,000 / mo in all other expenses such as electricity, transportation (don't have a car), eating out, taking girls out to fancy dinners, etc. I'm able to save ~ $11,000 / mo after all this. I'm currently about 1.4 mil net worth, but I plan on getting married and having kids in the future so that'll def add to my expenditure. Basically, I have no clue when I'll achieve FIRE. It all depends on whether I marry a rich wife or a broke wife.

It’s most important how you start, you’re doing great.

 

[anonperson]

Reading this thread def makes me think getting married and having kids complicate things vs. being single. I'm 36 yo single male living in a VHCOL city. Majority of my expense is rent, which is ~ $2,800 / mo. I give about $2,000 / mo to my parents so they can use it however they want it (they don't need the help, but just giving back what I received from them so far). Maybe $3,000 / mo in all other expenses such as electricity, transportation (don't have a car), eating out, taking girls out to fancy dinners, etc. I'm able to save ~ $11,000 / mo after all this. I'm currently about 1.4 mil net worth, but I plan on getting married and having kids in the future so that'll def add to my expenditure. Basically, I have no clue when I'll achieve FIRE. It all depends on whether I marry a rich wife or a broke wife.

You'll be fine but having kids will definitely set you back financially. Food, schooling, lessons, sports, need for a larger space, vacations become more expensive and of course college costs ( if you choose to help with that).

It's the cost of doing business but you're already at a good starting point.

 

[Porfirio]

Fixed costs $13,000 (decreases by $4,321 in Nov when my student loans are paid off). My house is on year 2 of a 15 year mortgage ($3,850 all taxes/insurance/etc).

I max out my retirement and my wife’s retirement. Save $600 for 529 and $600 for weddings each month for 3 kids. Total is $13,750

Make about $57,000 a month (averaged) for 5 years

Extra money each month is saved/spent. We just recently paid cash for a new GMC Denali XL for my wife to drive with the three kids. I pay cash for the yearly cost of preschool for two kids. I shop at Sam’s Club. We have a maid come to clean the house every 2 weeks (part of fixed cost and cheaper than divorce). My wife is stay at home mom and we have a part time baby sitter that comes 2-3 times a week for 3 hours to help my wife (cheaper than divorce, part of fixed costs).

 

[cyanide12345678]

Fixed costs $13,000 (decreases by $4,321 in Nov when my student loans are paid off). My house is on year 2 of a 15 year mortgage ($3,850 all taxes/insurance/etc).

I max out my retirement and my wife’s retirement. Save $600 for 529 and $600 for weddings each month for 3 kids. Total is $13,750

Make about $57,000 a month (averaged) for 5 years

Extra money each month is saved/spent. We just recently paid cash for a new GMC Denali XL for my wife to drive with the three kids. I pay cash for the yearly cost of preschool for two kids. I shop at Sam’s Club. We have a maid come to clean the house every 2 weeks (part of fixed cost and cheaper than divorce). My wife is stay at home mom and we have a part time baby sitter that comes 2-3 times a week for 3 hours to help my wife (cheaper than divorce, part of fixed costs).

57k post tax? I’m guessing you’re not EM then? Unless you have a unicorn gig

 

[Porfirio]

57k post tax? I’m guessing you’re not EM then? Unless you have a unicorn gig

57k not post tax, I work EM, but I work for bonus PRN shifts and a full time job.

 

[MD46]

57k is before taxes are deducted? so more like 30k after taxes i.e. 625-650k /yr

 

[BoardingDoc]

57k is before taxes are deducted? so more like 30k after taxes i.e. 625-650k /yr

Your math doesn't math.

57k pretax is 684k. 30k after taxes is 360k. Not sure what you were trying to indicate.

 

[MD46]

was trying to say if your salary is 625k before taxes are taken out, take home should be around 30k a month or so

 

[EctopicFetus]

was trying to say if your salary is 625k before taxes are taken out, take home should be around 30k a month or so

625k minus deductions including retirement changes the math some. If you make that much having a DB plan might make sense depending on your spending.

 

[emergentmd]

I would bet my living expenses dwarf most on here, probably 40-50K/month. 3 private school kids since Prek, looking at 3 private school kids in HS soon, college coming up. 3 kids in club sports. Private coaches. Golf membership. 2nd and 3rd homes we leave empty but for the occasional trips. Boat expense. We travel alot. Eat in nice places. We take nice vacations. We have lawn guys, house keepers, and hire out most jobs. Donate a good amount of money to church.

Its expensive for sure, but once you hit FIRE, saving more money doesn't really matter.

 

[Emapp20177]

I would be my living expenses dwarf most on here, probably 40-50K/month. 3 private school kids since Prek, looking at 3 private school kids in HS soon, college coming up. 3 kids in club sports. Private coaches. Golf membership. 2nd and 3rd homes we leave empty but for the occasional trips. Boat expense. We travel alot. Eat in nice places. We take nice vacations. We have lawn guys, house keepers, and hire out most jobs. Donate a good amount of money to church.

Its expensive for sure, but once you hit FIRE, saving more money doesn't really matter.

Your generation of docs vs docs who finished residency in the last 5ish years are in different universes.

I look at house prices 10y ago in my area and drool. Salaries have only gone up minimally. It's really wild how expensive everything has gotten.

Fortunately, I grew up dirt poor, so while I'll never reach the 1%er lifestyle you achieved, I feel good.

Congrats on your success.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I would be my living expenses dwarf most on here, probably 40-50K/month. 3 private school kids since Prek, looking at 3 private school kids in HS soon, college coming up. 3 kids in club sports. Private coaches. Golf membership. 2nd and 3rd homes we leave empty but for the occasional trips. Boat expense. We travel alot. Eat in nice places. We take nice vacations. We have lawn guys, house keepers, and hire out most jobs. Donate a good amount of money to church.

Its expensive for sure, but once you hit FIRE, saving more money doesn't really matter.

Are you making 900k-1M a year to break even with that lifestyle? Or are you pulling out of your nest egg?

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

It's time for me to make my quarterly PSA about how we should all take emergentmd's how-to-get-rich story with a massive block of salt

Yes he's successful, yes he's exited with double-digit millions and lives a 0.1% life, yes his overall lessons are important and should be listened to.

But to think that an ER doc in today's environment could do it the same way he did, or that he wasn't the beneficiary of an incredibly permissive environment (free standings are legal in his state, his cost of capital was extremely low, almost no competitors, the golden age of EM and knowing how to milk facility and professional fees) is just putting your head in the sand.

Scott Galloway's thoughts on guys like emergentmd ring so true in these discussions: they rarely realize how their environment and context were so important for their success, and erroneously attribute a majority of their success to perspiration, rather than opportunistic positioning.

What I am NOT saying: OMG Emergentmd is wrong, Don't ever listen to anything he says!!!! Never work, don't try, it's impossible, just accept that you've lost!!!

What I am saying: All you can take away from emergentmd's advice is that it takes a combination of the right market, the right timing, the right opportunity, the right people, the right amount of risk tolerance, and a TON of work. AND that a majority of people aren't successful, and that emergentmd's story is RARE. You have VERY LITTLE control of so many of these variables that result in success.

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

What I am saying: All you can take away from emergentmd's advice is that it takes a combination of the right market, the right timing, the right opportunity, the right people, the right amount of risk tolerance, and a TON of work. AND that a majority of people aren't successful, and that emergentmd's story is RARE. You have VERY LITTLE control of so many of these variables that result in success.

Thanks for highlighting the bolded part. Something that gets lost in a lot of these online "eat the rich" discussions (not saying that this is one of them) is that it actually does take a lot of effort to excel, even with a fortunate environment.