Lifestyle inflation and monthly expenses

[AD04]

No hedges, still full bull and dip buying. I wouldn’t react to china taiwan geopolitics until it’s increasingly likely- military buildup/staging like russia did months before ukraine.

I also wouldn’t be so optimistic about “they” will always save the market. The higher ups will always try but it won’t always work. You don’t see how massive the exposure is that the megacaps have to china? NVDA and all of them with datacenters (AMZN GOOGL MSFT) rely on TSMC. AAPL and TSLA needs china sales. All these are trillions of dollars in market cap that easily slice by half or more in a single week on a taiwan attack.

I have done incredibly well in the markets since starting active investing in 2019. First went short with SPY puts at covid crash, then closed out and bought software stocks (to take advantage of the work from home and stay at home theme) the day after Fed announced ZIRP again (which was sunday march 15). The market bottomed march 20 so didn’t time it perfect but was close.

With the short SPY gains and software bubble gains i took 70k to $1M in 2020 (but half of that profit went to taxes).

I also bought a house (totally lucky timing, as we were in process of closing early march 2020) and scored 3% rates on zero down physician loan- but paid it all off with my remaining posttax stock gains that year anyway. financially a mistake but it felt good to get rid of the mortgage/interest payments every month.

2021 and into 2022 i continued software active investing with money put in from moonlighting, initially did well but once the bubble popped from fed hikes i made the mistake of staying in too late, however i repositioned myself in late 2022 with FAANG stocks and in 2023 missed the early parts of NVDA /chatgpt mania but managed to get in with SMCI which powered the vast majority of +303% gains in 2023. The rest of profit was from leveraged put selling. In 2024 i was long 100% AMZN at $145, sold it all at $175, selling puts on FAANG and NVDA, and am currently up another +54% YTD.

After taxes, i am at liquid $3M and a paid off home, up from 70K in 2019. It’s a life changing amount for our family that we would not have attained in <4.5 years without active management of our portfolio. Buy and hold SP500 would just keep us as highly paid wage slaves forever (3 kids are expensive)

So yes made some mistakes but i’m constantly adapting to the market- if there is a bubble inflating, get in and don’t sit out. If there is turmoil, get out or short it. Monitor what truly moves markets which is liquidity. Move with the Fed, not against it. We haven’t had a real black swan event that the Fed could not combat but china-taiwan is likely to be one future likely incident that the Fed cannot save the markets.

I love it when you flex. I enjoy reading about people achieving success in different ways. The tax man must really love you though. Since you mentioned moonlighting, when did you finish residency? If you reached multi million net worth in residency, I would concede that you beat me.

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[wamcp]

I love it when you flex. I enjoy reading about people achieving success in different ways. The tax man must really love you though. Since you mentioned moonlighting, when did you finish residency? If you reached multi million net worth in residency, I would concede that you beat me.

2017 finished IM residency. 2017 to late 2019 was when i hunkered down to pay off 400k loans. The government didn’t give me any tax breaks for that.
Been a hospitalist since then. Yeah i have paid a ridiculous amount in taxes, 2020 was when i fully understood why people lean politically conservative as they age, ha

 

[Splenda88]

2017 finished IM residency. 2017 to late 2019 was when i hunkered down to pay off 400k loans. The government didn’t give me any tax breaks for that.
Been a hospitalist since then. Yeah i have paid a ridiculous amount in taxes, 2020 was when i fully understood why people lean politically conservative as they age, ha

You have won the game. You will be in a position to get out of the rat race with another 2 mil added to your 3 mil. Work is more enjoyable when you are not working because you need a paycheck.

 

[AD04]

2017 finished IM residency. 2017 to late 2019 was when i hunkered down to pay off 400k loans. The government didn’t give me any tax breaks for that.
Been a hospitalist since then. Yeah i have paid a ridiculous amount in taxes, 2020 was when i fully understood why people lean politically conservative as they age, ha

Impressive nevertheless. Would you be up for a friendly competition throughout the upcoming years just to keep our edges sharp?

My stats: Graduated 2019. Negative net worth upon graduation. Currently, liquid amount higher than yours, but I don’t own real estate. In total, we may be in the same ballpark.

YTD, I’m up 50%. This is not counting contributions. Taxes owed on investment for the year so far is close to zero.

Biggest blunder I’ve made so far was buying US treasuries early on in my investing journey. Finally took a loss of -$400k

 

[emergentmd]

Only a physician with 15 mil net worth would say something like that.

It's plenty even if 2 mil is JEPI (7-8% dividend)... that is 140-160k/yr spending $$

Your missing the point. If you are retired and have 5M, you have will live a comfortable retirement.

If you did a decent amount of saving as an ER doc, have 5M NW at age 50 you still have to work. Most docs at age 50 have most of their NW in their home, retirement, and other illiquid assets. Not many with 5M NW have even 1M in taxable accounts/cash.

If I wanted to keep the same lifestyle, I would have to sell assets.

 

[Kryptocoin]

There's a lot of survivorship bias in this thread. For every physician with a NW of 2M at age 40, there are tons of doctors at 50 with negative NW. My NW has doubled in the last 4 years, but that is not typical.

In fact, I'm not happy about it. You want a low return during your peak working years/accumulating phase and higher returns during your retirement/non-accumulating years (the compounding effect significantly accelerates). The market will revert to the mean, so high returns early on will only indicate low returns later.

So, for residents looking at this thread, don't expect these numbers. The most important thing is the one thing you can control: your savings rate.

Your savings rate is the key to financial success, not just investment returns. It's what you can control and it's what will make the most difference in the long run.

 

[EctopicFetus]

There's a lot of survivorship bias in this thread. For every physician with a NW of 2M at age 40, there are tons of doctors at 50 with negative NW. My NW has doubled in the last 4 years, but that is not typical.

In fact, I'm not happy about it. You want a low return during your peak working years/accumulating phase and higher returns during your retirement/non-accumulating years (the compounding effect significantly accelerates). The market will revert to the mean, so high returns early on will only indicate low returns later.

So, for residents looking at this thread, don't expect these numbers. The most important thing is the one thing you can control: your savings rate.

Your savings rate is the key to financial success, not just investment returns. It's what you can control and it's what will make the most difference in the long run.

Not exactly.. maybe from a behavioral perspective but even then i dont think so.. your money will grow better and faster if you return better rates when young. Thats math. also realistically thinking if you had 2-3% returns for 20 years you would be unlikely to keep it in the market during retirement the returns would not justify the risk. The mean here doesnt have to stay static. In certain decades the return was near 0. The stock market average moves. If the market returned 15% per year for the next decade the mean would move.. If it was 0 it would also move.

I’ll take big returns whenever i can get them. Stay steady, minimize risk and avoid trying to hit a home run cause it is more likely to result in a strike out when it comes to investing. Sometimes people will get lucky and you will hear about it. Other times people will whiff but they wont tell you about it.

 

[deleted1140701]

There's a lot of survivorship bias in this thread. For every physician with a NW of 2M at age 40, there are tons of doctors at 50 with negative NW. My NW has doubled in the last 4 years, but that is not typical.

In fact, I'm not happy about it. You want a low return during your peak working years/accumulating phase and higher returns during your retirement/non-accumulating years (the compounding effect significantly accelerates). The market will revert to the mean, so high returns early on will only indicate low returns later.

So, for residents looking at this thread, don't expect these numbers. The most important thing is the one thing you can control: your savings rate.

Your savings rate is the key to financial success, not just investment returns. It's what you can control and it's what will make the most difference in the long run.

How can you possibly have a negative NW at 50 as a doctor? Too many ex-wives/alimony/bad investments?

 

[Kryptocoin]

How can you possibly have a negative NW at 50 as a doctor? Too many ex-wives/alimony/bad investments?

All of the above.

But in my experience it's usually expensive lifestyle creep. Big house, luxury cars and travels, unpaid student loans, expensive schools for the kids, wife with champagne taste etc.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/budget-breakdown-of-a-couple-that-makes-500000-a-year-but-cant-save.html

 

[Kryptocoin]

Not exactly.. maybe from a behavioral perspective but even then i dont think so.. your money will grow better and faster if you return better rates when young. Thats math. also realistically thinking if you had 2-3% returns for 20 years you would be unlikely to keep it in the market during retirement the returns would not justify the risk. The mean here doesnt have to stay static. In certain decades the return was near 0. The stock market average moves. If the market returned 15% per year for the next decade the mean would move.. If it was 0 it would also move.

I’ll take big returns whenever i can get them. Stay steady, minimize risk and avoid trying to hit a home run cause it is more likely to result in a strike out when it comes to investing. Sometimes people will get lucky and you will hear about it. Other times people will whiff but they wont tell you about it.

Japan's stock market collapsed in 1990, wiping out more than 50% of its value , after a decade of high returns. It didn't regain all of this loss until 2023, 33 years later.

So if you retired in 1990, you're screwed since you're looking at 30 yrs of negative or low returns. I don't even think your retirement will last ten years with a 4% withdrawal rate.

A 32-year-old guy who started investing in 1990 in Japan would be in much better shape financially when they retire at 65 in 2023, as long as they kept investing throughout that period.

I'm not suggesting people time the market. I'm just saying that if given the choice, I'd prefer a higher return later in life, not earlier.

 

[deleted1140701]

All of the above.

But in my experience it's usually expensive lifestyle creep. Big house, luxury cars and travels, unpaid student loans, expensive schools for the kids, wife with champagne taste etc.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/budget-breakdown-of-a-couple-that-makes-500000-a-year-but-cant-save.html

Lots of bad expenses for sure. I'd never donate to my colleges after forking out 400k total in tuition/charges. But this was 6 years ago and I'm sure they're doing better now. That 1.5 mil house has probably appreciated. They've probably risen up in their firms. And they've probably made changes after getting so much crap on the internet.

 

[sloh]

How can you possibly have a negative NW at 50 as a doctor? Too many ex-wives/alimony/bad investments?

Not uncommon in SoCal. 30 year old new FM doc finishes residency, has kids, wife wants to go part-time (probably doesn't make enough to justify working and paying for nanny), buys a house in a neighborhood with good school district

 

[Apollyon]

How can you possibly have a negative NW at 50 as a doctor? Too many ex-wives/alimony/bad investments?

One or fewer houses, one or fewer spouses.

 

[dozitgetchahi]

How can you possibly have a negative NW at 50 as a doctor? Too many ex-wives/alimony/bad investments?

Reasons include all of the above plus living way above your means - huge beach house, new luxury cars every few years, just living large at every opportunity. Lots of doctors have terrible spending habits.

 

[goodoldalky]

@cyanide12345678 has a point here.

I have never been able to accept this consensus thought about the US stock market.

Especially the idea that “well if the market drops a lot then we’re all screwed anyway, it would be the least of your worries, like it’s probably an asteroid that kills civilization or a nuclear war etc”

No. Just no. There are infinitely more possibilities of geopolitical events that destroy the stock market returns over a prolonged period but don’t end civilization.

The most likely and “well known” black swan that may take place within the next few years is the China-Taiwan flashpoint.

In any scenario where either China invades/attacks, blockades or peacefully forces Taiwan to give up and join the CCP, the American stock market will lose.

The shock to the economy cannot be understated. Without the foundries and advanced chip production capabilities pretty much only found in Taiwan and impossible to replicate at scale elsewhere for decades, your favorite megacap stocks holding up SP500 returns for the past decades will collapse. AMZN dies. MSFT is done. AAPL, NVDA gets wiped. The most ridiculous valued stock on earth, TSLA, is gone.

Without easy supply of chips, you can’t manufacture affordable modern cars or smartphones. Datacenters cannot be replaced. Remember that everything runs on the cloud these days. Say good bye to the tech companies that have been the pillar of market returns for decades.

This is of course not to mention the extraordinary sanctions and cut in global trade from the fallout of all this. Cheap chinese goods are going to stop flowing.

Inflation will skyrocket at the same time that jobs are lost. This is NOT a covid event where you can just print some money by the Fed to rescue the stock market…because the Taiwan chip supply chain is gone, not simply paused.

What i’m trying to say here is that openly choosing to be complacent and trusting of the passive investing consensus is gross negligence of your own household’s well being and survival. Saying it’s ok to lose money for decades just because the average person would also lose with you is meaningless. You live a personal and individual life as does your family, you are not a statistical average. Saying that the market will always do well “long term” is nonsensical because our lifespans are incredibly short and finite. You can only miserably work for so many years in a career before you have to physically retire. “Long term” could easily mean 50 or 70 years in the future to see any real return in a market.

Take control and learn as much as you can about the market or other investing areas of interest. What i talk about with the china taiwan risk is a real probability event within the next few years. Xi jinping is getting old and he wants that Taiwan legacy. Research what is your strategy if this becomes a possibility. A china military staging force and build up to blockade or attack Taiwan is easily seen by satellites and other intel just like how Biden admin saw Russia about to invade Ukraine months in advance. So you WILL know when this becomes a likely geopolitical event to come. Prepare yourself, what will you do? Go all in cash? Treasuries? Buy put hedges? Buy defense stocks or INTC? Domestic companies that benefit from China trade cut?

The wrong answer is to do nothing but buy and hold the index funds…take control of your future.

You say the wrong answer is to buy and hold index funds, and I completely disagree.

The reality is that the world has gone through one black swan event after the other in the last hundred years. The Great Depression, two world wars, pandemic outbreaks of disease, 9/11, the dot com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, countless other civil and multinational wars, terrorism, and assassinations… and the only answer that has proven to be the right one, after all of that, is to buy and hold index funds.

 

[cyanide12345678]

You say the wrong answer is to buy and hold index funds, and I completely disagree.

The reality is that the world has gone through one black swan event after the other in the last hundred years. The Great Depression, two world wars, pandemic outbreaks of disease, 9/11, the dot com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, countless other civil and multinational wars, terrorism, and assassinations… and the only answer that has proven to be the right one, after all of that, is to buy and hold index funds.

I think he’s against 100% vti/spy portfolio which is concentration risk into the US markets. Not necessarily against index funds

 

[goodoldalky]

I think he’s against 100% vti/spy portfolio which is concentration risk into the US markets. Not necessarily against index funds

Then we agree! (lol)

 

[hoot504]

For a child-less perspective...

Medium to low-end HCOL (Metro west). Wife's a PA. Our combined income is right about dead-nuts at $650k. Our monthly spend is $12.5k. Zero debt other than a mortgage and one very expensive car (~180k) that was my one true YOLO purchase since finishing residency 6 years ago. We're able to save $10k+ a month. We probably travel a little less than our friends but when we do we travel well. We're both 36 and have a seven figure portfolio (barely). What makes us remarkable is being childless and me working my balls off for the past 6 years. We invest in very safe mutual fund type vehicles. <5% of our investments are individual stocks and crypto.

 

[EctopicFetus]

Japan's stock market collapsed in 1990, wiping out more than 50% of its value , after a decade of high returns. It didn't regain all of this loss until 2023, 33 years later.

So if you retired in 1990, you're screwed since you're looking at 30 yrs of negative or low returns. I don't even think your retirement will last ten years with a 4% withdrawal rate.

A 32-year-old guy who started investing in 1990 in Japan would be in much better shape financially when they retire at 65 in 2023, as long as they kept investing throughout that period.

I'm not suggesting people time the market. I'm just saying that if given the choice, I'd prefer a higher return later in life, not earlier.

Looking at stock market returns in isolation kind of misses the point. Your real point i think is DCA is good. Keep in mind from 1984 to that peak the Nikkei almost quadrupled. Then tanked. If you DCA’ed you were fine. If you put every penny in at one time from not investing and then didnt invest you got screwed. We can all find specific examples that look bad. We can all spend our time looking only at the outliers. However if you started in 1984 (earliest date i could easily find) by 1994 it had doubles. The following 10 years were bad. That being said in a vacuum this matters in reality Japan had significant financial woes. They didnt have economic collapse.

So even if you retired in 1990 at the market peak you would have seen your retirement 4x the 6 years running into retirement.

Good returns late help psychologically. However, you can manage some of that risk. Sit in bonds or cash. DCA is the key.. also if you can stomach it and have the money (in bonds or elsewhere) investing when the market corrects is smart and will get you outsized returns.

 

[emergentmd]

For a child-less perspective...

Medium to low-end HCOL (Metro west). Wife's a PA. Our combined income is right about dead-nuts at $650k. Our monthly spend is $12.5k. Zero debt other than a mortgage and one very expensive car (~180k) that was my one true YOLO purchase since finishing residency 6 years ago. We're able to save $10k+ a month. We probably travel a little less than our friends but when we do we travel well. We're both 36 and have a seven figure portfolio (barely). What makes us remarkable is being childless and me working my balls off for the past 6 years. We invest in very safe mutual fund type vehicles. <5% of our investments are individual stocks and crypto.

Great Job.

I you are childless in Medium COL place and do not want children, what is the point of killing yourself when your monthly spend is 13k? I would get a 2+M life insurance on both of you. Work less, enjoy your free time. You have already won the game.

 

[Backpack234]

Lifestyle creep....

3 years ago, DINK physician household, spent maybe 10k/mo and invested the rest. Looked at buying a house where we went to residency and would have had a 400k mortgage @ 3.5% at the time.

Moved back home where COL increased SIGNIFICANTLY, post covid housing boom. Had one kid when we got here, rented a 2/2 apartment. Still only spent 12k/mo. Then daycare started. Add 2k/mo. Then we had two more kids. Add 4k/mo. Then we bought a 4/3 house at 2023 housing prices. 6.5% interest rate. Plus new purchase property tax and peak insurance costs.

I remember I saw a tiktok video that said millennials are split between kids/no kids and pre covid house/post covid house. We caught the worst of both worlds (at least financially). Daycare and housing costs alone are about 13k/mo.

 

[NITRAS]

Lifestyle creep....

3 years ago, DINK physician household, spent maybe 10k/mo and invested the rest. Looked at buying a house where we went to residency and would have had a 400k mortgage @ 3.5% at the time.

Moved back home where COL increased SIGNIFICANTLY, post covid housing boom. Had one kid when we got here, rented a 2/2 apartment. Still only spent 12k/mo. Then daycare started. Add 2k/mo. Then we had two more kids. Add 4k/mo. Then we bought a 4/3 house at 2023 housing prices. 6.5% interest rate. Plus new purchase property tax and peak insurance costs.

I remember I saw a tiktok video that said millennials are split between kids/no kids and pre covid house/post covid house. We caught the worst of both worlds (at least financially). Daycare and housing costs alone are about 13k/mo.

Daycare costs are $6k/month? And your housing is $7k/month?! Daycare doesn’t last forever, but that seems pricy.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Daycare costs are $6k/month? And your housing is $7k/month?! Daycare doesn’t last forever, but that seems pricy.

A $750k loan at 6.5% with property taxes and insurance will get you to $7k/month pretty easy.

 

[emergentmd]

Daycare is about 2k+/mo. He has 3 kids.

Our kids go to private school since prek not just because of academics. Many parents choose schools based on more than just academics.

Having kids are expensive. I would say the 2 biggest headwinds when it comes to net worth is divorce then kids.

If docs do not have kids; most should be retired by early 40s after a good 15 yrs of work.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Daycare is about 2k+/mo. He has 3 kids.

Our kids go to private school since prek not just because of academics. Many parents choose schools based on more than just academics.

Having kids are expensive. I would say the 2 biggest headwinds when it comes to net worth is divorce then kids.

If docs do not have kids; most should be retired by early 40s after a good 15 yrs of work.

And it’s not just school cost, vacations become more expensive, car insurance increases, need for space increases resulting in needing bigger more expensive homes.

Id be FI right now without kids.

 

[Backpack234]

Daycare costs are $6k/month? And your housing is $7k/month?! Daycare doesn’t last forever, but that seems pricy.

Yep! It's kind of insane. And it really did creep up on us.

In our area, there are maybe 4-5 day cares? Only one would take infants, so that's where we went with our first kid. It wasn't insane paying an extra 2k/mo?

The following year, she was kind of established, so we kept here there. Had friends, liked the teachers, etc. etc.. And the daycare has been great, despite the expense.

Thought we could handle another one, but somehow we ended up with twins. So we figured out how to add two. Suddenly the cost went up to >6k/mo.

We did look into other facilities, but faced the same problem with the infant room. Plus, realized that the less expensive facilities just have more days off per year, so the prices end up the same. And you're on the hook for child care those days. Plus, again, the facility's been good, so we weren't really feeling the idea of moving them all somewhere else.

We DID look into having a nanny for all 3 instead of daycare, but FT nannies want 30/hr plus benefits and overtime. When you add that all up, the costs aren't all that different. And nannies can be flaky. So here we are.

Housing is a simpler story. Three years ago the house I bought was 600k? It's a decent house in a nice neighborhood in a good school district. Nothing too crazy. Except now it's worth 1.2-1.3M. We could have gone smaller but a 3/2 is still 800-900k and with 3 kids, wanted that extra space.

So we bit the bullet, and now we're here.

The good news is we saved aggressively before all this. And should still be on the path to FI, if not a bit later than initially expected. Bad news is suddenly life is much more expensive than we ever expected.

 

[wamcp]

Anyone caught off guard by the worsening economic data yesterday? Maybe a real recession is coming rather than soft landing after all. Previously was buying the dip hard and now I've completely deleveraged and sitting 100% SPY to protect capital. Looking forward to today's actual job report numbers...the thing is even if the results are in-line with forecast, the market may still continue to sniff out a coming recession anyway. The ISM was very unexpectedly bad yesterday.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Yep! It's kind of insane. And it really did creep up on us.

In our area, there are maybe 4-5 day cares? Only one would take infants, so that's where we went with our first kid. It wasn't insane paying an extra 2k/mo?

The following year, she was kind of established, so we kept here there. Had friends, liked the teachers, etc. etc.. And the daycare has been great, despite the expense.

Thought we could handle another one, but somehow we ended up with twins. So we figured out how to add two. Suddenly the cost went up to >6k/mo.

We did look into other facilities, but faced the same problem with the infant room. Plus, realized that the less expensive facilities just have more days off per year, so the prices end up the same. And you're on the hook for child care those days. Plus, again, the facility's been good, so we weren't really feeling the idea of moving them all somewhere else.

We DID look into having a nanny for all 3 instead of daycare, but FT nannies want 30/hr plus benefits and overtime. When you add that all up, the costs aren't all that different. And nannies can be flaky. So here we are.

Housing is a simpler story. Three years ago the house I bought was 600k? It's a decent house in a nice neighborhood in a good school district. Nothing too crazy. Except now it's worth 1.2-1.3M. We could have gone smaller but a 3/2 is still 800-900k and with 3 kids, wanted that extra space.

So we bit the bullet, and now we're here.

The good news is we saved aggressively before all this. And should still be on the path to FI, if not a bit later than initially expected. Bad news is suddenly life is much more expensive than we ever expected.

The increased housing costs (and interest rates to buy said housing) are a huge thing. We got lucky, bought in 2017 and refinanced to under 3% in 2020. Now our house estimate is 60% more than when we bought and interest rates are almost triple. If we bought today our mortgage would be 2.5X higher than what we're paying.

And as a guy with twins, that causes all sorts of extra issues. We're lucky, our private school with extended hours since wife and I both work is around $3500/month and my mother lives in town for holidays so no extra cost there.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Anyone caught off guard by the worsening economic data yesterday? Maybe a real recession is coming rather than soft landing after all. Previously was buying the dip hard and now I've completely deleveraged and sitting 100% SPY to protect capital. Looking forward to today's actual job report numbers...the thing is even if the results are in-line with forecast, the market may still continue to sniff out a coming recession anyway. The ISM was very unexpectedly bad yesterday.

How were you caught off guard? If you look around you in the world (outside of your physician bubble) it’s been pretty clear things aren’t going well for a lot of people. A soft landing has historically been the exception and not the rule. The stock market seems to have things priced in that everything is going to go perfectly and that AI is going to be the second coming of Jesus.

Pretty much every kind of economic data being revised in hindsight for the worse should have been a clue that things weren’t what they seem.

The Fed probably took too long to raise rates and probably will have waited too long to cut which is fairly typical. It’s a tough job. On the other hand, maybe they know some things need to break for a kind of reset.

 

[Splenda88]

And it’s not just school cost, vacations become more expensive, car insurance increases, need for space increases resulting in needing bigger more expensive homes.

Id be FI right now without kids.

Oh boy. Just spent 17k on 7-day vacation for 4 people.

And my portfolio is taking a beating right now with the market tanking.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Oh boy. Just spent 17k on 7-day vacation for 4 people.

And my portfolio is taking a beating right now with the market tanking.

It’s pandemonium. Blood in the streets. S&P 500 levels not seen since…June.

 

[emergentmd]

Just took a vacation to Florida. Crowd was pleasantly light and shocking as I was expecting long lines. There were almost no lines. My STRs in nice vacation areas not booking as well, I would say down 30%.

Prices are Crazy. Home insurance is nuts. How anyone not making 200K+ wanting a decent home currently is in for a shock. In Texas, Home insurance is up over 100% the past 4 yrs for me. Car insurance up. Cost of everything up.

Anyone who thinks we are in a good economic place is kidding themselves. The shoe will drop. No way people continue to spend in this environment.

 

[emergentmd]

Texas. But Fla is no better.

In years past esp covid, getting a beach front rental required early booking month ahead. This year, got a place 3 wks before and price was cheaper than I thought.

Those who are leveraged with STRs are going to be hurting

 

[Splenda88]

Texas. But Fla is no better.

In years past esp covid, getting a beach front rental required early booking month ahead. This year, got a place 3 wks before and price was cheaper than I thought.

Those who are leveraged with STRs are going to be hurting

I'm hearing home price going down in both markets

I have been looking at Dallas and Houston closely for an investment property.

 

[Porfirio]

Eh, the stock market goes up, it goes down, and only care when I am 5 years away from retirement (still have 20 years to go before worrying). I will just keep buying. I have been through so many wars, 2008, and COVID. I hope it crashes like 2008 and COVID again.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Oh boy. Just spent 17k on 7-day vacation for 4 people.

And my portfolio is taking a beating right now with the market tanking.

The best month historically ended up down 5 ish percent.

In the grand scheme it’s a good thing, market was over heated anyway.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Oh boy. Just spent 17k on 7-day vacation for 4 people.

And my portfolio is taking a beating right now with the market tanking.

Maybe I’m just cheap.

Vacation for 4 just ended - granted two of them are under 5. Just spent a week long cruise to alaska plus 2 days in Vancouver. All in $4500-4600 ish including flights, airport parking, hotels, car rentals at destinations, and food.

 

[Splenda88]

Maybe I’m just cheap.

Vacation for 4 just ended - granted two of them are under 5. Just spent a week long cruise to alaska plus 2 days in Vancouver. All in $4500-4600 ish including flights, airport parking, hotels, car rentals at destinations, and food.

My spouse likes luxury. Flight alone cost us $4400.00.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Just took a vacation to Florida. Crowd was pleasantly light and shocking as I was expecting long lines. There were almost no lines. My STRs in nice vacation areas not booking as well, I would say down 30%.

Prices are Crazy. Home insurance is nuts. How anyone not making 200K+ wanting a decent home currently is in for a shock. In Texas, Home insurance is up over 100% the past 4 yrs for me. Car insurance up. Cost of everything up.

Anyone who thinks we are in a good economic place is kidding themselves. The shoe will drop. No way people continue to spend in this environment.

Yes, capital call from ashcroft for fund 1 because of these rapidly increasing costs. The cost of ownership has truly ballooned up in the last 3 years in Fl and Tx.

 

[cyanide12345678]

My spouse likes luxury. Flight alone cost us $4400.00.

Yeah we’re definitely cheap.

Flights $1100 for 3, the 9 month old was free. No checked bags. All luggage in 3 carry ons and 2 backpacks. No extra $$$ For baggage.

 

[Apollyon]

Yeah we’re definitely cheap.

Someone I used to know would say, instead, "I come from a frugal people"!

But, you really exemplify the saying, "How do people get rich? By not spending their money!"

 

[emergentmd]

Yeah we’re definitely cheap.

Flights $1100 for 3, the 9 month old was free. No checked bags. All luggage in 3 carry ons and 2 backpacks. No extra $$$ For baggage.

I used to be like this. Go SWA, no early bird, just check in right at 24hrs.

Go connecting flights b/c its cheaper than direct.

Yeah, lets go to the beach and stay at a place that requires walking down the street.

Yeah, lets grab something to eat; room service is too expensive.

But man, I have learned to let go of the "frugal" mentality. I know I have enough $$$ to be happy. I have a stable Job.

Now I work less, save what I believe is reasonable, spend the rest. Having another 100K in the bank when I retire is not worth we going to the car to pick up food when I can sit at the pool and get room service.

Its a hard mentality to get over, but my life is so much happier letting go of being frugal. I want to look back at my memories flying direct than having to lug kids for connecting flights or missing flights. Love the memories of having sand in the back yard than fight finding a parking spot at the public beach.

 

[emergentmd]

My spouse likes luxury. Flight alone cost us $4400.00.

I do club VB with the kids. I always pick the best flights, most direct. Always book the hotel connecting to the convention center.

I see parents take 6am flights, connecting then have to sit around for the room to be ready. I rather spend the extra $300/ticket to wake up at 10am and get a direct flight right when the room is ready.

 

[Splenda88]

I do club VB with the kids. I always pick the best flights, most direct. Always book the hotel connecting to the convention center.

I see parents take 6am flights, connecting then have to sit around for the room to be ready. I rather spend the extra $300/ticket to wake up at 10am and get a direct flight right when the room is ready.

That was the cheapest we could have done it except for the hotel that was $900/night plus $50+ valet.

To be honest, I like staying in nice hotel. Gotta be 700+ sqft for 2 teenagers and 2 adults.

 

[anonperson]

Anyone caught off guard by the worsening economic data yesterday? Maybe a real recession is coming rather than soft landing after all. Previously was buying the dip hard and now I've completely deleveraged and sitting 100% SPY to protect capital. Looking forward to today's actual job report numbers...the thing is even if the results are in-line with forecast, the market may still continue to sniff out a coming recession anyway. The ISM was very unexpectedly bad yesterday.

No.

The economy has been in a bubble. Don't be surprised by a severe downturn.

Could be a good buying opportunity.

 

[The Knife & Gun Club]

Yes, capital call from ashcroft for fund 1 because of these rapidly increasing costs. The cost of ownership has truly ballooned up in the last 3 years in Fl and Tx.

The cost of ownership in Fl is absolutely bonkers right now. My little condo that we got in residency legitimately tripled in the last 3 years.

I have no idea who’s buying these things because I can’t imagine paying $900,000+ to live in a 1200 sq foot 2 bedroom condo with no garage or amenities/extras. People making >200,000/year with no kids maybe? I can’t imagine that’s a huge market share. Yet every time something goes on the market it sells in days all cash and above asking.

And insurance rates have doubled in the last 2 years alone.

 

[deleted1180461]

No.

The economy has been in a bubble. Don't be surprised by a severe downturn.

Could be a good buying opportunity.

What is it going to do to the housing market? There is an argument made that the severe lack of supply will still keep prices up even if there lots of forced sales in the face of lowered interest rates that are too late and now people can’t qualify for a loan at all. Alternatively the economy stagnates, interest rates remain high and prices continue to increase due to inflation.

Help a renter out who’s been waiting years and now has emough stacked to buy in cash. Wait another year? 10 years? Rent forever?

 

[anonperson]

What is it going to do to the housing market? There is an argument made that the severe lack of supply will still keep prices up even if there lots of forced sales in the face of lowered interest rates that are too late and now people can’t qualify for a loan at all. Alternatively the economy stagnates, interest rates remain high and prices continue to increase due to inflation.

Help a renter out who’s been waiting years and now has emough stacked to buy in cash. Wait another year? 10 years? Rent forever?

Real estate is hyper local.

I'm in Southern California. I tell anyone who wants to live down here to buy as soon as comfortable. Prices aren't going to get better.

The same can't be said for Harrisburg, PA etc.

You can refinance interest rates if they improve.

At the end of the day, you need a place to live. Once you make the purchase, you'll feel better.

I enjoy not having a landlord and having my own space. Not everyone feels that way so you'll have to decide. But if you want to own a home, own a home.

I feel it's like trying to determine what the best time is to have kids. There's no great time. Just less worse times.

 

[gutonc]

Real estate is hyper local.

I'm in Southern California. I tell anyone who wants to live down here to buy as soon as comfortable. Prices aren't going to get better.

The same can't be said for Harrisburg, PA etc.

You can refinance interest rates if they improve.

At the end of the day, you need a place to live. Once you make the purchase, you'll feel better.

I enjoy not having a landlord and having my own space. Not everyone feels that way so you'll have to decide. But if you want to own a home, own a home.

I feel it's like trying to determine what the best time is to have kids. There's no great time. Just less worse times.

100% agree with this. If you have the means (whatever that means to you), and you have a place you want, do it now. Especially if you're in a tight/hot market.

We pulled the trigger on our (new) place 5 months ago. We definitely didn't have enough to pay cash, we paid more than we were anticipating (but much less than asking and what the place is worth) and our rate is kind of crappy, but the house was perfect.

For about 4-6 weeks after we went into contract, the market here kind of blossomed after being super quiet for as long as I've been watching it (about 18 months now) but it has been stagnant again for the last 2 months or so and nothing that has come on the market has even come close to what we wanted.

 

[deleted1180461]

100% agree with this. If you have the means (whatever that means to you), and you have a place you want, do it now. Especially if you're in a tight/hot market.

We pulled the trigger on our (new) place 5 months ago. We definitely didn't have enough to pay cash, we paid more than we were anticipating (but much less than asking and what the place is worth) and our rate is kind of crappy, but the house was perfect.

For about 4-6 weeks after we went into contract, the market here kind of blossomed after being super quiet for as long as I've been watching it (about 18 months now) but it has been stagnant again for the last 2 months or so and nothing that has come on the market has even come close to what we wanted.

In my case, I used to have an awesome house I sold for 450k in 2020 at 115/sq ft. If I wanted to buy the same thing in my MCOL city, it would be probably 750 now. If I could even find something comparable which i can’t. New builds are 250+/sq ft and nowhere near the city, 30-50 min commute. I watched a solidly VLCOL city become MCOL at a minimum in 4 years just sitting on the sidelines paying rent.

I have enough to buy a 750 house in cash, but the junk on the under supplied market is not nearly as good as my former house. Location is worse. I don’t want to to spend 300 more than I sold for to have a property that’s older, farther away, smaller, and uglier than my former property. All with double property taxes and insurance to boot. Financially renting makes more sense and living without a bunch of “stuff” that would occupy the house and garage. Emotionally, it’s harder than that. I go and look at houses about once every 6 months, and briefly get my hopes up only to become severely depressed.

The one thing I don’t really understand… we talk about the massive housing shortage. When I bought in 2014 the house had been sitting vacant for over a year since being built. After buying it I watched houses in the neighborhood take over a year for sale. Indeed, in 2019-2020 when I tried to sell it took multiple listings and being on the market a year. All these big empty houses no one could sell at now laughable bargain basement prices of $100/sq ft. One year later in 2021 they are selling over list in 2 days. Supposedly because of massive housing shortage. Rent went up because of apartment shortage.

Question: Where were all these excess home buyers and renters that doubled rents and home prices in a few years living before the pandemic? Our population didn’t just suddenly double overnight. To me this suggests it wasn’t about not enough roofs in America. It was another force, and therefore it will eventually unwind and we will go back to 2020 prices and homes sitting vacant for a year trying to sell again.