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Yes, I’m calling it out to illustrate that if your bond yields are higher than your SWR, you’re basically still never going to run out of money almost no matter what you do. The percentage risk over 30 years is basically nil if you keep any stocks at those bond yields.
Less than 4% SWR is mathematically a bad decision and discounts the risk of not spending money over retirement to maximum effect. It’s advice no one should ever follow except the severely disabled who have truly fixed income or large pension funds that millions depend upon
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Anyone making all those assumptions is dumb. Full stop.
Those "expected" returns by Morningstar look quite good. If we get those types of returns then a 5% or even 6% SWR is certainly feasible.
I remain fully diversified across all sectors and "International" may finally have some good returns going forward.
I remain fully diversified across all sectors and "International" may finally have some good returns going forward.
Morningstar is a fiscally conservative investment site. While you may disagree with their conclusion they are not "dumb." Many others have speculated that a 5% SWR is very reasonable for those willing to ride out the volatility. I do think that someone retiring at age 50 needs to plan more conservatively than someone retiring at age 60.
Sure they are, why would anyone assume that spending stays constant over retirement? It clearly goes down as one ages. Medicare is free. Social security is a thing that exists. And Why would anyone assume a lower real return? Trinity literally takes into account the Great Depression…
So i spent some time with grok and gpt running a 100% stock allocation over 30 to 50 years at 3% swr. Only wanted scenerios that had starting value at year 3 the same as year 1 in case someone still was pseduo working PT for few years. End result 100% success based on history and u died with 3.2x in todays dollars in the minimum scenerio with a median of 6x. Then i did 4% swr and minimum was 2.9 to 5.4x median.
My take away: basically get a few years of PT work if u want to be extra sure and we dont get 1929 or 2008 in year 1 u r going to vallhalla. Even in the bad scenerios if u used a variable swr which everyone would do as u shud have some margin ud still be good.
Remember it doesnt consider social security or any type of inheritance or that ud ever make money again.
YES. This is the way.
Think about it. We’re physicians. If circumstances change in a patient , do we mindlessly do the same thing or use the same medicine over and over like drones? No. We have a general plan that we stick to if all goes normal. Usually no need to deviate. But when there are contingencies to fall back on it’s nice to have those in the plan if needed.
Thats true. Honestly the simplest answer is for me to work full time till i hit my "luxury SWR". Call this 4% with maybe 2-2.5% being essentials.
For an early retiree lets call them 45 yo I would then suggest they go to part time or whatever they can cover most of there expenses without tapping the accounts. Then sorta go from there. If you dont get a market crash in year 1 of part time work and get like a 10-12% return you have a 99% success rate for a 30-50 year withdrawal of 3-4% swr. Assuming no other income ever. Yeah not going to worry too much about this now. Peoople really need to run these in AI sims.
Yeah I think you’re right on with the info you share. It’s wild to me how much things have changed even for us as anesthesiologists. During residency and the first few years after I was an extremely strong advocate for WCI. I still think in general the advice is valuable. But I don’t think early retirement or even financial independence is as easy as once described. The cost of healthcare is insane.
The easy answer for us is to work longer. I think it’s relatively easy for us to save up a nice nest egg and transition to part time work. I used to think I’d fully retire by early 50s. Now I imagine I’ll drop down to part time or just take more vacation and work into my early 60s or likely longer.
Sequence of Return Risk is the biggest concern when looking at retirement. How markets perform for the first 5 years sets the tone for your entire retirement and the remainder of your life. This is generally considered to be the first 5 years of retirement which is why part time work for years 1-3 will ride out bad markets for those years and mitigate SRR.
As a pessimist I am using Morningstar's numbers to give me a big cushion that I don't run out of money and I leave an inheritance for my kids.
The main reason to use a 3% SWR is to leave an inheritance at least equal to 50% of your starting portfolio. If you don't care about leaving anything behind then even a 5% SWR is reasonable using the guardrails approach
What Is the Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Approach for Retirement? | White Coat Investor
Guyton-Klinger Guardrails is a strategy that allows for a relatively large withdrawal rate during retirement. Here are the pros and cons.
www.whitecoatinvestor.com
Part time. I like the schedule. It keeps you mentally involved in the game. Did I mention the money is still nice as well? It's easy to make $120-$150K working a gig part time. You can take advantage of the need for our services to find work while not worrying about getting the best hourly rate because it is supplemental income.
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Sequence of Return Risk is the biggest concern when looking at retirement. How markets perform for the first 5 years sets the tone for your entire retirement and the remainder of your life. This is generally considered to be the first 5 years of retirement which is why part time work for years 1-3 will ride out bad markets for those years and mitigate SRR.
As a pessimist I am using Morningstar's numbers to give me a big cushion that I don't run out of money and I leave an inheritance for my kids.
The main reason to use a 3% SWR is to leave an inheritance at least equal to 50% of your starting portfolio. If you don't care about leaving anything behind then even a 5% SWR is reasonable using the guardrails approach
What Is the Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Approach for Retirement? | White Coat Investor
Guyton-Klinger Guardrails is a strategy that allows for a relatively large withdrawal rate during retirement. Here are the pros and cons.
Agree. I think esp if sub 50 yo retirement. Its generally healthy and informative to go from 40 hours to lets say 20 hrs minimun for a few years. Aside from all the SORR how about just no one knows what that might feel like. Maybe you reach a new work life balance at 15-20 hrs. Everyone who has worked there tail off to get this far probably shouldn't go 100% to 0% immediately but a stair step down. Sure make it over a 5 year window enuf to pay expenses even as your end of year 5 of part time work portfolio likely is 50% higher now. Then sure do 3-4% swr and if your insanely paranoid use your original portfolio before the 5 years of part time work and gradually taper up to the entire portfolio.
You quickly adapt to 2-3 days per week and will find the schedule much better with 8 or 10 hour shifts (no call). You won't feel as if the caseload is insufficient either with that schedule.
The government, through marginal tax brackets and stuff like SS and Medicare eligibility, incentivizes earning the same amount of money over more years. So going part time at the tail end of one’s career and working more years is going to work out better financially than working full time for less years.
This can also allow for opportunities for Roth conversions and employer subsidized healthcare.
Im still quite aways away from this point in my career, but for the above reasons, part time for the last 5-10 years of my career is probably the route I’ll go.
This can also allow for opportunities for Roth conversions and employer subsidized healthcare.
Im still quite aways away from this point in my career, but for the above reasons, part time for the last 5-10 years of my career is probably the route I’ll go.
I agree. I am if ones serious about walking from medicine then stairstepping down makes the most sense. Maybe they find PT work great and in balance. If your almost financially about to retire cold turkey coming from FULL TIME only work your whole life, but instead you test out a 5-7 year window of doing part time you likely doubled your portfolio and your not even going to nearly be as worried financially plus if the market crashes you'll feel better to half done the PT work for a few years extra.
You would be ok with a 2.8 swr for a 40-45 year old?
If you hate your job that much then yes. I still think part time at age 50 is a nice early retirement.
I can’t even get out of bed these days before 8am. Just lazy to towards the end of the year. Or may age 51. I’m starting to feel it.
My buddy made $4000 for 4 hrs of work this morning. And egging me on to work next week for $550/hr. And I’ll rather collect $4500/12 hr on beeper and not work.
So I’d rather make less money per hour $400/hr not to work. Than to show up and actually work towards the end of the year.
That’s the best way to make money. I don’t know how long these shenanigans will last.
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I was always told that when your investment income starts getting close to your income as a doctor your probably part time eligible and the money after your expenses ( your savingS from that point on that you'd invest) matters little to your overall net worth.
Also, with AI and robots might as well milk the next 5-10 years so your kids are set as well in case you need to support them due to a poor job market for when they are out in the real world. Unlikely but doesnt hurt to be in that position esp when your getting paid like what you are.
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How much people charging for holiday rates ?
As much as you want. They are counting on people who need money to work.
I did $800/hr for Xmas Eve and part of Xmas day two years ago. All beeper guranteeed rate with ob. Nothing in house. Slept like a baby outside the hospital.
Did do 5 GI cases Xmas day. Gi doc didn’t celebrate Xmas. So he didn’t care how pissed off the staff was doing emergency egd on hg 12 and not bleeding. Hospital claimed it was justified cause it affected discharge… I didn’t care. Had crna who making $400/hr.
We have a new contender for the most GI story of all time
I hate GI so much
So you made 19k sleeping at home ?
Yup. Next level. Make them guarantee everything on beeper. A nice $500/hr rate sounds good..except you are actually working. Take a little less but all guaranteed.
I just can’t do the standard $1000/1200 beeper plus plus hours worked. ($400-450/hr call back )
Take the flat rate.
I need to know how much gurantee money there is on the take. Maybe if the hospital was 10 min from my house I would take beeper. But this place is 45 min from my house (no trauma, no ob) so don’t need to be close by ).
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I don't understand how you find these shifts
It’s hit or miss. I have 3 hospitals that guarantee me all the hours on beeper. You have nothing to lose if they say no. If they say no. Don’t take beeper call.
Not every place i do locums gives fully gurantee beeper rate to me. See ya. I don’t need the money.
I say this becuase I have a regular w2 job with regular income. So I know I have guranteee money streaming in already.
Just ask for it. If everyone on the locums roster demands it. They have no choice but to give it. Like the mafia. Collude together.
Man around here the open shifts get sent out and are snatched up within minutes. Its like a feeding frenzy. With rates nowhere close what you get. No chance get full hourly pay for home call.
suppy and demand. If they have enough docs willing to do it for beeper. All the docs need to get together and say we won’t do it.
They are counting on people desperately needing cash.
Well unfortunately there are more than enough who will do it, including myself. Its mostly local people and so most of us think of it as free money, and a bonus if called in
I understand. People have families and kids to feed.
Just remember crnas are next generation in terms of thinking how they get paid.
We can’t get locums crnas to do $600/night beeper plus $285/hr call back 7p-7a even on weeknights They want 12 hr guaranteed at $250/hr
So crnas are actually helping docs because they are demanding continuous billing as well.
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Your making a lot of money these days but it doesnt mean anythinng if your health isn't optimal. Are you optimizing your health? You should at minimum have a trainer and nutritionist. Are you getting all the advanced cardiac screenings. The whole body scans. calcium scoring etc. Keto, fasting. There's no reason with the money and means you have that health shouldn't be optimized. It almost sounds like you have given up.
if my obese, smoker, diabetic, copd, cabg, 8 stents, alcoholic, no exericse, mcdonalds patients are making it to their 70s even with bad family hx there's no reason to think you can't. Of course there needs to be maximum effort. Do a short course of Trt if needed to get some spark back. Wish you well.
Need advice on locums offer of $400/hr from locums agency but locums agency is not transparent about call, if I would be required to take call, how frequent call is, how much call pay would be, also no guaranteed hours. This locums agency has claims-made malpractice insurance for it's locums and the locums physician or provider cannot buy or us their own MP. The locums recruiter said I would have to agree to be presented before they can give me the certificate of insurance for the malpractice coverage. The locums agency also refuses to call it a "contract" but corrected me and said "It's not a contract. It's an agreement." Seems kind of shady and not transparent to me.
This above locums agency is not a CRNA owned agency. But have people worked for CRNA owned locums agencies? Some of the posted higher pay rates are from CRNA owned agencies.
This above locums agency is not a CRNA owned agency. But have people worked for CRNA owned locums agencies? Some of the posted higher pay rates are from CRNA owned agencies.
This is what I’m doing
1/2 time for 2025.
On track for 350k.
2025 has been a very healthy year for me. At the risk of sounding old, I have really enjoyed adding pickleball to my weekly routine. Probably the healthiest I have been in a while, yet still enjoy the job and friendships at the hospital.
Plan to do this until 55 and re-evaluate then, but I have a feeling I’ll check out at that time.
Not sure what the”number” needs to be at retirement, but 1/2 time allows a lot of flexibility while still enjoying the healthy years of ones life.
Interesting part is that new social circles develop outside of the OR when you have time to develop them.
On track for 350k.
2025 has been a very healthy year for me. At the risk of sounding old, I have really enjoyed adding pickleball to my weekly routine. Probably the healthiest I have been in a while, yet still enjoy the job and friendships at the hospital.
Plan to do this until 55 and re-evaluate then, but I have a feeling I’ll check out at that time.
Not sure what the”number” needs to be at retirement, but 1/2 time allows a lot of flexibility while still enjoying the healthy years of ones life.
Interesting part is that new social circles develop outside of the OR when you have time to develop them.
Had a family friend finally decide to call quits on a rad onc career at 54 yo. he's somewhere close to 20m. His salary after taxes was contributing 1-2% to his nw. Wishes he had left a few years earlier.
It’s a big step to part ways with your lifetime career. I can see the difficulty in making that change.
Whats he doing for healthcare at age 54?
Update. One of the docs texted me yesterday said his west side Florida area dried up for him finally after 2 years. He milked for 1.3 million for the last 12 months. So things come and goes. He’s got other 1099 gigs but doesn’t really want to drive outside his 45 min radius on a day to day basis.
So he’s looking into Virginia North Carolina and Penn
So he’s looking into Virginia North Carolina and Penn
Ya not sure he'll have enough...
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Many people have enough. That’s why I’m asking. But psychologically people won’t quit cold even with 20-30 million. Like my sister is at 23 million. She hasn’t quit cold yet and still on her husband Health care plan.
Does his spouse still works? Is he carrying cobra? On the exchanges?
I look at the exchanges for 4 people in my family. I’m looking at around 40k out of pocket for the exchanges. Can I afford 40k? Absolutely. But psychologically i still keep my w2 job where i pay very little. Less than 10/% of the total cost of the 40k.
23Million is a lot even with our salary. She must have been investing VERY WELL which is conceivable. If you invested in Apple 15 years ago you did well and that wasnt even speculative back then and why is she sharing her net worth with you.
lol. It’s my sister.
Dudes and gals literally text me their net worth by the day sometimes.
It’s just a different world
I’m just interested on people who retire early what they do for healthcare.
Some people cant stop habits even if they reach crazy high numbers like 15 or 20m. His sister is flying coach internationally still.
Im actually making it a point not to be like that if im mathematically able to spend i will spend well. This is exactly the wrong way to be living once uve achieved so much and u can be living well. That mental shift is just as important once u reach those numbers. Be chartible and live it up. Few can do it however.
$20 million. Wow
Did he hit some home run investments or just slow and steady investments (total market etc) coupled with a high income?
