Losing over 20 to 30k a day in my stocks.

[mentos]

This is a misperception. Not only will most people not benefit but they will be hurt from a stock market crash:

1) their job will be on the line
2) they don’t have cash on hand to invest
3) banks will not lend

You have to ask yourself why would prices for cars and houses drop? Why would supply goes up while demand goes down?

I just said it was good for people looking to buy, like in 2009. Didn't mention anything else.

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[Chrish]

This is just noise IMO. Things will go back to normal within a month. I am hoping for market to drop lot further but this is the most likely scenario.

 

[mentos]

This is just noise IMO. Things will go back to normal within a month. I am hoping for market to drop lot further but this is the most likely scenario.

Are you buying extra now?

 

[Chrish]

Are you buying extra now?

I will buy $10k this week if market drops further. If VTSAX goes below $70, I am probably dumping all $30k.

 

[JustFillIt]

Are you buying extra now?

Here is my suggestion. If you want to hold something for less than 6 months right now I would avoid buying because it’s too risky.. Unless, of course, you want to make a gamble out of it (kinda like my UPRO move yesterday that worked beautifully - I’m still stuffed from dinner last night).

However, if you are buying and holding for 10+ years - go for it. Right now is a great time to just put more in your 401k actually...

Otherwise - right now the slot machine is rolling on wall-street. I actually find it kinda fun.

 

[BMBiology]

Are you buying extra now?

Everybody needs to do a cost vs benefit analysis. I think the downside is huge especially if your job is on the line.

I am not predicting a recession (yet) but even if the coronavirus goes away by summer, it exposed how fragile our economy is. The hype is over.

There is a reason why Wall Street is raising cash. We have too much damn debt. Even gold went down.

I am not selling mainly because the vast majority of my stocks are in retirement funds but I am not buying either. I am holding on to my cash pile and gold.

 

[johnpharm01]

Anyone want to predict the bottom?

 

[PharmtoCS]

Funded my Roth IRA just last week and dumped it into index funds. Lost money right away, but no regrets since I am looking at a 20-30 year horizon and not trying to time the market.

I am trying to save cash for a down payment on a home. Hopes are either that either home prices drop or the fed drops interest rates further so that I end up paying less than if I were to buy now.

 

[JustFillIt]

Anyone want to predict the bottom?

I will - if it gets really bad I would predict the bottom to be somewhere around 17,000.

This will give the powers that be the ammunition they need to stay in power and say Trump accomplished nothing.

That’s my deep conspiracy theory

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I will - if it gets really bad I would predict the bottom to be somewhere around 17,000.

This will give the powers that be the ammunition they need to stay in power and say Trump accomplished nothing.

That’s my deep conspiracy theory

Can't tell if joking or just crazy.

 

[JustFillIt]

Can't tell if joking or just crazy.

Haha more or less just sarcastic..

Saying you know better would be just as crazy as someone proposing a fringe conspiracy theory.

 

[BMBiology]

I will - if it gets really bad I would predict the bottom to be somewhere around 17,000.

This will give the powers that be the ammunition they need to stay in power and say Trump accomplished nothing.

That’s my deep conspiracy theory

Trump is just a marketer. I can understand why he is popular with the masses. A big portion of the population do not feel DC represents them - they are tired of the illegal immigration, the destruction of the middle class. They feel like the American dream is slipping away.

When the music stopped and reality hits, you will come to the frank realization that Trump is just a smart marketer like Don King, Tai Lopez.

 

[MrBonita]

This reminds me of 2008 to 2010. I basically saw 40k turn into 7k in a month. So I stopped investing. The young grads who graduated just maxed out their 401k. By 2020, there portfolio is double mine even though I had invested first. I just hope people can gain some perspective from my experience.

 

[JustFillIt]

This reminds me of 2008 to 2010. I basically saw 40k turn into 7k in a month. So I stopped investing. The young grads who graduated just maxed out their 401k. By 2020, there portfolio is double mine even though I had invested first. I just hope people can gain some perspective from my experience.

You pulled out - you shouldn’t have!

 

[Mad Jack]

I bought the week before it went down, what's that make me? LoL.

Investments should be consistent over a long period of time for optimal returns. Focusing on market timing will do nothing but burn you

 

[babybull]

timing the market is key.
timing the market is the new time in the market.
sounding the alarm.
the market has peaked for the next 10 years.
GL.
stay safe everybody.

 

[JustFillIt]

timing the market is key. sounding the alarm. the market peaked for the next 10 years. GL. stay safe everybody.

If we do not see mass death and disorder due to the virus - I do not agree with this. The economy is growing at a healthy pace and the majority of major companies report green EPS...

If we pull out of this (similar to the swine flu), I see the market picking up where we left off. 10 years is a stretch.. I might agree with 2-3 years

 

[babybull]

If we do not see mass death and disorder due to the virus - I do not agree with this. The economy is growing at a healthy pace and the majority of major companies report green EPS...

If we pull out of this (similar to the swine flu), I see the market picking up where we left off. 10 years is a stretch.. I might agree with 2-3 years

the coronavirus is now irrelevant.
the stock market is not the economy and it is apparent that it is detached from the overall appearance of the economy.
whoever implanted this virus did so purposefully to do irreversible technical damage to the charts of the market indices (dow, nasdaq, spy, iwm).
the timing of it could not have been more perfect, which is why i had been warning about this 4 months ago.
a backtest was in action and this drop catalyzed a massive failure to recover a decade-long bullish trendline.
that's it, this bull is finished and the bull meat will be fed to the bears.
this is not a call to start shorting the market, but just one that will prevent any profits for longs beginning 2021 and beyond.

if you're bullish, this is your last chance to get out if you start making profit this year.
if you're bearish, shorting the market consistently this year will rip your face off from unpredictable market rallies.

 

[confettiflyer]

You pulled out - you shouldn’t have!

Stock market is like sex. Never pull out!!


Sent from my iPhone using SDN

 

[lord999]

@Momus @wagrxm2000 @lord999 @confettiflyer

Put in 30K tomorrow VTI or wait?? Spread out on news?

I have 0 positions in the stock market, and never have for years. I took my finance professors' collective advice seriously that I would get burned "investing" in anything but index funds. After making me this kind of money from hard work:



I really did follow the advice, get a decent house, get a decent car, and let TIPS (Individual - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)) pay out such that I'll always be ahead of my property tax and fixed costs. I can't give advice on this topic because it's about wealth preservation not making for me. That's also guided my career to not take overly risky positions (I don't want to practice given my assets as getting sued for malpractice is one of the few out of the money events that could wreck my household even with PLI).

I'm frankly impressed with both @Momus and @wagrxm2000 's hustling and yoy profits (I am an incompetent investor and I am afraid with the actuarial risk thoughts running through my mind), so I took a different approach to making it. My old graduate students' definitively proved to me that investment has too much of a correlation bias where they went to work (Renaissance) and that there is more money taking it than investing it.

I can't beat the market, nor make it honestly. In Eliezer Yudkowsky's words:

If I had to name the single epistemic feat at which modern human civilization is most adequate, the peak of all human power of estimation, I would unhesitatingly reply, “Short-term relative pricing of liquid financial assets, like the price of S&P 500 stocks relative to other S&P 500 stocks over the next three months.” This is something into which human civilization puts an actual effort.

Millions of dollars are offered to smart, conscientious people with physics PhDs to induce them to enter the field.

These people are then offered huge additional payouts conditional on actual performance—especially outperformance relative to a baseline.

Large corporations form to specialize in narrow aspects of price-tuning.

They have enormous computing clusters, vast historical datasets, and competent machine learning professionals.

They receive repeated news of success or failure in a fast feedback loop.

The knowledge aggregation mechanism—namely, prices that equilibrate supply and demand for the financial asset—has proven to work beautifully, and acts to sum up the wisdom of all those highly motivated actors.

An actor that spots a 1% systematic error in the aggregate estimate is rewarded with a billion dollars—in a process that also corrects the estimate.

Barriers to entry are not zero (you can’t get the loans to make a billion-dollar corrective trade), but there are thousands of diverse intelligent actors who are all individually allowed to spot errors, correct them, and be rewarded, with no central veto.

This is certainly not perfect, but it is literally as good as it gets on modern-day Earth.

 

[mentos]

Investments should be consistent over a long period of time for optimal returns. Focusing on market timing will do nothing but burn you

I wasn't timing the market, it was my yearly backdoor Roth IRA contribution.

 

[Mad Jack]

I wasn't timing the market, it was my yearly backdoor Roth IRA contribution.

I'm not saying that's what you were doing, I'm saying that you should be contributing consistently so that some of your contributions win, some lose, but overall you win

 

[Gombrich12]

Anyone want to predict the bottom?

Short term I'm going 2560 on the S&P 500. Long term who knows? Seems like this could cause stagflation due to supply being constrained.

 

[BMBiology]

This reminds me of 2008 to 2010. I basically saw 40k turn into 7k in a month. So I stopped investing. The young grads who graduated just maxed out their 401k. By 2020, there portfolio is double mine even though I had invested first. I just hope people can gain some perspective from my experience.

How many years have you been working as a pharmacist?

 

[accordman83]

I will - if it gets really bad I would predict the bottom to be somewhere around 17,000.

This will give the powers that be the ammunition they need to stay in power and say Trump accomplished nothing.

That’s my deep conspiracy theory

What would UPRO be at roughly at that level? Looks like an interesting trading (gambling) vehicle

 

[babybull]

look to june - november for sustained strength in the market as the indices look to fill the mid-february market gap

 

[JustFillIt]

look to june - november for sustained strength in the market as the indices look to fill the mid-february market gap

Did you go to, “speak like an ancient prophet school”?

 

[babybull]

Did you go to, “speak like an ancient prophet school”?

no amount of silver will help if the wrong questions are asked

 

[TheBlaah]

Just increased my 403B to 18%. I'll lower it when the market corrects some, figure higher contribution during the next couple months will pay off unless the dip lasts most of the year

Why don't you just leave it at max contribution? It's tax advantaged anyway. Probably able to afford that I'd imagine.

 

[TheBlaah]

I'll do the max. Just pushing more in starting now vs evenly distributed over the year.

I see. I'm doing something similar with my 529 account since it allows immediate contributions. I put put in 2k, and will be putting more in if it goes lower. Also just got a 457 account with my workplace that I'll be contributing a little to on top of the 403b.

 

[JustFillIt]

no amount of silver will help if the wrong questions are asked

That’s deep dude.. you just blew my mind!

 

[TheBlaah]

Ugh I wish I could do bye 457 account. My employer has a limit of BASE pay > 160K to contribute. I've reached out asking if I can do it anyhow but haven't heard back.

My employer has a similar stipulation. But the thing is, my base pay is nowhere even close to the salary requirement. But after shift differential and overtime, I'm a good deal above it and hr created my account. Maybe if you just make more than 160k for the year, they'll just automatically give it to you?

 

[TheBlaah]

There is no match. You spurred me to re-email them again just now

Go for it. Mine matches 457 if eligible (but no longer matches 403).

To be perfectly honest, I have a feeling my HR simply made a mistake (one of many I've encountered). But maybe they look at yearly tax documents or something to determine eligibility; I can't say.

 

[mentos]

Maybe try not just doing the Roth all at once in Jan.

We both just wait for a dip and by our allocation if SPY. I will admit i bought the SPY around 320 on the dip earlier in the month. Still better than in the 330s tho. Wish I had bought this week instead, but my spouse still has to contribute to our second Roth.

Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Meh I don't think it matters in the long run. In previous years it was better to contribute in January. I'm not withdrawing anything for 30+ years.

 

[johnpharm01]

Bottom will be when we start to see numerous people die in USA. Economy is not healthy, feds rate is so low that it can't go lower to boost an ailing economy. Greed has taken place over common sense and money policy has been to boost a sky high stock market. Also everyday wage earners are not benefiting substantially from trumps tax cuts. Furthermore deficit keeps growing. Waiting for additional slipping of the stock market then going "all in" for a long term investment.

I scored big though. Withdrew my 401k for a rollover before the drop and will be reinvested after this initial drop so saved about $90,000 in value totally by chance aka dumb luck.

 

[Sine Cura]

If people are losing 20-30k unrealized a day or lucky enough to avoid 90k worth of decline, that is literally a first-world problem.

The U.S.'s absolute joke of a health delivery "system" will not be able to handle a full-blown SARS 2.0 onslaught. Fun times to short everything

 

[JustFillIt]

If people are losing 20-30k unrealized a day or lucky enough to avoid 90k worth of decline, that is literally a first-world problem.

The U.S.'s absolute joke of a health delivery "system" will not be able to handle a full-blown SARS 2.0 onslaught. Fun times to short everything

Damn! Someone feels strongly..

 

[PromethazineDM]

Anyone want to predict the bottom?

No one really knows. We have a pandemic that has yet to be fully unleash in the US and in some other more populated and poorly sanitized countries. This combined with the election year and result will make it difficult to judge where the bottom is. It seems anything could happen in 2020.

I'm taking a wait and see approach before heavily invested in the market and maybe real estate again.

 

[babybull]

Anyone want to predict the bottom?

i have a 100% success rate in calling bottoms. it is 5-10% below Friday's close on SPY, DOW, NASDAQ.
i am merely calling how much point B is lower than point A, but nothing in between, so don't be fooled.

No one really knows. We have a pandemic that has yet to be fully unleash in the US and in some other more populated and poorly sanitized countries. This combined with the election year and result will make it difficult to judge where the bottom is. It seems anything could happen in 2020.

I'm taking a wait and see approach before heavily invested in the market and maybe real estate again.

wrong wrong wrong. and wrong again like everyone else in society, including on this forum. the stock market is disconnected from reality. the stock market has already revealed where it's going. all you have to do is pay attention to its outward beauty.

 

[lane one]

the market has peaked for the next 10 years.

Whoa. Really? That's a bold call. I have a feeling someone will be digging this one up in a couple of months and making you eat it.

whoever implanted this virus did so purposefully to do irreversible technical damage to the charts of the market indices (dow, nasdaq, spy, iwm).
the timing of it could not have been more perfect, which is why i had been warning about this 4 months ago.

Brb while I get my tin foil hat. I've mostly stayed on the sidelines while others question your methods, but now it seems you've really lost it.

i have a 100% success rate in calling bottoms. it is 5-10% below Friday's close on SPY, DOW, NASDAQ.
i am merely calling how much point B is lower than point A, but nothing in between, so don't be fooled.

Ok, so you're telling me we won't see a new market high for 10 years, but we're only 14% off of record high in the DOW on 2/12. That puts your bottom 19-24% off the high, and we won't recover that for 10 years? I'll accept a response in the form of charts since that's your preferred language.

 

[BMBiology]

Coronavirus is a concern but I think the spirit of the bull market is over. It was way too expensive. A lot of companies have a boat load of debt due to low interest rate. Are they going to run into trouble if there is a prolonged recession?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Bottom will be when we start to see numerous people die in USA. Economy is not healthy, feds rate is so low that it can't go lower to boost an ailing economy. Greed has taken place over common sense and money policy has been to boost a sky high stock market. Also everyday wage earners are not benefiting substantially from trumps tax cuts. Furthermore deficit keeps growing. Waiting for additional slipping of the stock market then going "all in" for a long term investment.

I scored big though. Withdrew my 401k for a rollover before the drop and will be reinvested after this initial drop so saved about $90,000 in value totally by chance aka dumb luck.

All of this is completely wrong. I do not expect this to last through spring.

The bottom will occur when it's finally contained.

The economy is as healthy today as it was 10 years ago. Nothing has changed and no one can say at what point is debt too high. Why wasn't it too high 5 years ago.

Greed? Again this isn't any different then any previous years.

The fed absolutely has more it can do. More QE like it did during the last recession and it could make interest rates negative if it wanted to.

Actually it's a myth that people didn't benefit from the tax cut when in reality most did. I'm not going to argue about government assistance though, we don't need another one of those arguments in a thread.

Finally, never sell your 401k just to try to time a top. I think it's going to be very hard for you to get back in now.

 

[Gombrich12]

Coronavirus is a concern but I think the spirit of the bull market is over. It was way too expensive. A lot of companies have a boat load of debt due to low interest rate. Are they going to run into trouble if there is a prolonged recession?

Where do people put there money when treasuries are negative yielding in real terms? That's what I can't figure out.

 

[johnpharm01]

All of this is completely wrong. I do not expect this to last through spring.

The bottom will occur when it's finally contained.

The economy is as healthy today as it was 10 years ago. Nothing has changed and no one can say at what point is debt too high. Why wasn't it too high 5 years ago.

Greed? Again this isn't any different then any previous years.

The fed absolutely has more it can do. More QE like it did during the last recession and it could make interest rates negative if it wanted to.

Actually it's a myth that people didn't benefit from the tax cut when in reality most did. I'm not going to argue about government assistance though, we don't need another one of those arguments in a thread.

Finally, never sell your 401k just to try to time a top. I think it's going to be very hard for you to get back in now.

Never sold my 401k just doing a trustee to trustee transfer so they cut a check an mailed it to me. This takes it out of the market until it's deposited in my new plan. Meanwhile the market took some blows. If things continue to drop it will be affected but at least I missed the initial blow. My first plan was exclusively stocks most large cap.

 

[johnpharm01]

And the timing was sheer coincidence I was planning on consolidating plans for some time...that reminds me I have to buy a lotto ticket maybe I will get lucky twice

 

[wagrxm2000]

Never sold my 401k just doing a trustee to trustee transfer so they cut a check an mailed it to me. This takes it out of the market until it's deposited in my new plan. Meanwhile the market took some blows. If things continue to drop it will be affected but at least I missed the initial blow. My first plan was exclusively stocks most large cap.

Sounds good, just don't want people getting ideas thinking they can time a market.

 

[BMBiology]

All of this is completely wrong. I do not expect this to last through spring.

The bottom will occur when it's finally contained.

The economy is as healthy today as it was 10 years ago. Nothing has changed and no one can say at what point is debt too high. Why wasn't it too high 5 years ago.

Greed? Again this isn't any different then any previous years.

The fed absolutely has more it can do. More QE like it did during the last recession and it could make interest rates negative if it wanted to.

Actually it's a myth that people didn't benefit from the tax cut when in reality most did. I'm not going to argue about government assistance though, we don't need another one of those arguments in a thread.

Finally, never sell your 401k just to try to time a top. I think it's going to be very hard for you to get back in now.

No, corporation debt is way too high. Corporations were borrowing money to buy other corporations. They were borrowing money so they can buy back their shares even when price was already at all time high (CVS). This adds nothing to growth. It is just price manipulation.

 

[BMBiology]

Where do people put there money when treasuries are negative yielding in real terms? That's what I can't figure out.

I think that is a fair point. But most of the “money” out there is not really money. It is credit. Is dropping already low interest rate going to make a big difference? I guess we have to find out.

They might need to give everyone a universal basic income just to keep the economy going.

 

[wagrxm2000]

No, corporation debt is way too high. Corporations were borrowing money to buy other corporations. They were borrowing money so they can buy back their shares even when price was already at all time high (CVS). This adds nothing to growth. It is just price manipulation.

View attachment 297243

Again then why not 5 years ago? Debt isn't new.

2011, 2016, 2018...if people get scared everytime we drop that is why they miss out.

Each of those drops, people said this was it and it wasn't. Could it be this time? Sure but you can just pick some data and say at this point it's finally just too high.

 

[PharmDminus]

All of this is completely wrong. I do not expect this to last through spring.

The bottom will occur when it's finally contained.

The economy is as healthy today as it was 10 years ago. Nothing has changed and no one can say at what point is debt too high. Why wasn't it too high 5 years ago.

Greed? Again this isn't any different then any previous years.

The fed absolutely has more it can do. More QE like it did during the last recession and it could make interest rates negative if it wanted to.

Actually it's a myth that people didn't benefit from the tax cut when in reality most did. I'm not going to argue about government assistance though, we don't need another one of those arguments in a thread.

Finally, never sell your 401k just to try to time a top. I think it's going to be very hard for you to get back in now.

finally contained as in the coronavirus being contained? toothpaste is out of the tube, this can no longer be contained. This could very well be a part of our lives going forward, just as the flu is. It can mutate and next winter be Covid-20, Covid-21. Those that are saying we are close to a market bottom, im not so sure. We all need to time to
digest the reality that this is going to hit us.