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Okay going to make food, then I'll give more detail thoughts haha
Lurking Beloww: Sea Monsters Sign Ups and Game Thread
- Thread starter katashark
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Well that lasted a long time
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The current candidates are listed in the 2nd Deck Lounge. Your Captains thank you for your assistance.
Day 2 Votes
SAR (4) - AM, genny, skimble, pippy
KC (1) - Coffeebean
DVMD () -
Bryndi (1) - dubz
Coffeebean (5) - jboo, Sobsob, bryndi, Stagg, Snowy
pippy (1) - kcough
genny (1) - SAR
jboo (1) - dolph
14/16 passengers accounted for. Deadline in ~3 hours
Carry on with your business! Don't forget to check out the views.
Day 2 Votes
SAR (4) - AM, genny, skimble, pippy
KC (1) - Coffeebean
DVMD () -
Bryndi (1) - dubz
Coffeebean (5) - jboo, Sobsob, bryndi, Stagg, Snowy
pippy (1) - kcough
genny (1) - SAR
jboo (1) - dolph
14/16 passengers accounted for. Deadline in ~3 hours
Carry on with your business! Don't forget to check out the views.
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It’s a gut feeling it’s hard to explain.
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Since enough people are confused about why I do this I'm going to transfer the convo from Bicycle dead chat here and they can read it if they want because I'm honestly getting annoyed explaining this every game. Going to put it in spoilers because they get long (was discussing with Cray).
So since you're dead now, I'll explain my feelings about RNG votes/D1 (again) since I don't think you've actually played or spectated with me.
I get what you were saying about RNG votes on D1 possibly being counterproductive to actually catching a wolf, but I think that's only true if people aren't discussing outside of votes. Imo analyzing how someone votes on D1 is usually completely useless until later in the game. In fact, I'd go as far as saying most of what happens on D1 is completely worthless at the time and is best utilized several days later when you can do post/vote analysis. It's part of why I crack a lot of jokes early on, because D1 is all about feelz which I think is a very weak method of wolf hunting and one which can lead to a lot of false arguments for wolves to take advantage of.
I also disagree that RNG voting is inherently wolfy. MJ talked about the statistical aspect of it in a recent game and RNG is actually a more efficient approach to D1 than voting off of feels/analysis with such little info unless someone makes a pretty major slip-up. Plus different people say different things are wolfy for no reason. You said my joke vote for Mel seemed wolfy, but that's well within my meta or at least the pre-meta which has been displayed in the few games I've played. So some people will say RNG is wolfy, others will say joke votes are wolfy, others will find a reason to call a vote with a justification wolfy. It's all so up in the air on D1 that imo you should just pick someone to vote for in whatever way you feel like and everyone should take the "wolfiness" of it with a grain of salt.
At the same time I get that we need something to analyze/talk about. Normally there is plenty of discussion D1 to look at. This game seemed to be moving slow on D1 which is why I asked Genny and MJ to clarify their votes without explanation, because I felt like we needed something to look at and compare to for later. She called me out for trying to add something to the thread without making too many waves, which was accurate, but she also thought I was being wolfy which was obviously not. So we can still have good conversations and have plenty of posts to look back at later without scrutinizing someone's D1 vote in that snapshot moment which likely provides minimal to no useful information.
I get what you were saying about RNG votes on D1 possibly being counterproductive to actually catching a wolf, but I think that's only true if people aren't discussing outside of votes. Imo analyzing how someone votes on D1 is usually completely useless until later in the game. In fact, I'd go as far as saying most of what happens on D1 is completely worthless at the time and is best utilized several days later when you can do post/vote analysis. It's part of why I crack a lot of jokes early on, because D1 is all about feelz which I think is a very weak method of wolf hunting and one which can lead to a lot of false arguments for wolves to take advantage of.
I also disagree that RNG voting is inherently wolfy. MJ talked about the statistical aspect of it in a recent game and RNG is actually a more efficient approach to D1 than voting off of feels/analysis with such little info unless someone makes a pretty major slip-up. Plus different people say different things are wolfy for no reason. You said my joke vote for Mel seemed wolfy, but that's well within my meta or at least the pre-meta which has been displayed in the few games I've played. So some people will say RNG is wolfy, others will say joke votes are wolfy, others will find a reason to call a vote with a justification wolfy. It's all so up in the air on D1 that imo you should just pick someone to vote for in whatever way you feel like and everyone should take the "wolfiness" of it with a grain of salt.
At the same time I get that we need something to analyze/talk about. Normally there is plenty of discussion D1 to look at. This game seemed to be moving slow on D1 which is why I asked Genny and MJ to clarify their votes without explanation, because I felt like we needed something to look at and compare to for later. She called me out for trying to add something to the thread without making too many waves, which was accurate, but she also thought I was being wolfy which was obviously not. So we can still have good conversations and have plenty of posts to look back at later without scrutinizing someone's D1 vote in that snapshot moment which likely provides minimal to no useful information.
Here's the thing: I'm actually less pissy about true RNG. I figured people saying that were using it metaphorically - if you're not using an RNG or Magic 8 Ball or Ouija Board or something, then a "jokey" vote has some sort of motivation, IMHO, even if it is really a jokey vote as stated by a villager. Obviously if you're village hunting a wolf you don't know, then it's not going to be amazing wolf hunting.
However, I think it would be impossible for a wolf to make a D1 choice without a RNG and not have it have some element of thought about how things will look later.
The reality is that from the moment a wolf knows they are wolf - their every choice is motivated by that. So yes, D1 can yield info, because as early as that choices and interactions are being made. Not many data points, but they are there.
So in that, I do agree that D1 is more useful later in the game.
I didn't read MJ's post, I'm sure it was genius. I don't know if I agree that D1 will be no better than chance or worse.
The thing about feels - DO NOT underestimate them. I've been bragging about getting 33/50 on a quiz testing if one individual post was wolf or villager, and getting it correct. That's better than chance, and it was higher than what others where claiming.
The point being, that you *can* read a single post in isolation, and ask yourself, what is this person's motivation, and how is what their saying reflecting that? As I've played and researched, I've gotten better at actually articulating what specifically in the post I believe to be wolfy. But gut feel and intuition absolutely have science behind them. Mafia was developed as part of a class project on game theory.
The basic game, which relies so much on post analysis, when played well, is absolutely is better than chance, so it suggests that "feels" from posts and votes counts for a lot more than we think. Our brains put things together in ways that we can't even articulate yet generates accurate results more than we credit.
I'm learning more from the Mafia Universe and wiki site about wolf hunting - and what it comes down to, is interaction and specifically pressure.
You can put a villager and a wolf on the line under pressure, and both will at least consider how their reaction might make them look (at least villagers should a little, but not too much). However, the wolf has to more concerned with image control and where/how they manipulate things, while appearing truthful, than on the truth.
While I think you are correct that villagers are mostly screwing around D1, the wolves are just trying to appear so. That difference however slight, is there, and it may or may not be seen. Not to mention, not every villager is screwing around D1. We have a few expert wolf hunters imho (like Kara, AM, Pippy, come to mind but there are others) (and keep in mind expert wolf hunting I don't see as how accurate you are - but more about method, since the method alone can generate results for the rest of village). The theory of excellent wolf hunting is not just reading into what others are saying (that's more what I do, and it has its value) but *pushing* players in certain ways. That happens with votes placed and also questions.
The more I play, the more I realize that D1 isn't nearly as much the crapshoot as people think. It might be for that lynch close, but at that point, lines have been drawn. Wolves have committed to where they are and what their strategy was for D1. And there is *some* on their part, fact. D1 doesn't have to be a crapshoot, some of it is what villagers make of it.
Keep in mind, being too jokey on D1 can make you as a villager look wolfy. I used to rage against those conventions, and they shouldn't be taken as gospel but now I see there is something to be said for them.
Keep in mind too, it wasn't just your joke, but the timing. That really is next level post/vote analysis maneuver, (I'm weak at) and as I said, good villagers will be able to manipulate wolves with pressure into making choices that reveal they are not innocent in their choices.
Now, we weren't right about you. Of course, how your jokey vote was treated also told us a bit about the players doing so, so again, jokey votes can have more significance that we acknowledge.
Lastly, yes, I don't often see that D1 itself yields as the first death, a wolf. I *have* quite often seen it set village up to nail wolves as early as D2 or D3. That's significant timing. Nevermind how that D1/2/3 can set up village to catch the rest.
I think something like this was at work in Mel's game and in Pip's game, IRRW. (My new thing is if I recall wrong for WW, because I really do)
However, I think it would be impossible for a wolf to make a D1 choice without a RNG and not have it have some element of thought about how things will look later.
The reality is that from the moment a wolf knows they are wolf - their every choice is motivated by that. So yes, D1 can yield info, because as early as that choices and interactions are being made. Not many data points, but they are there.
So in that, I do agree that D1 is more useful later in the game.
I didn't read MJ's post, I'm sure it was genius. I don't know if I agree that D1 will be no better than chance or worse.
The thing about feels - DO NOT underestimate them. I've been bragging about getting 33/50 on a quiz testing if one individual post was wolf or villager, and getting it correct. That's better than chance, and it was higher than what others where claiming.
The point being, that you *can* read a single post in isolation, and ask yourself, what is this person's motivation, and how is what their saying reflecting that? As I've played and researched, I've gotten better at actually articulating what specifically in the post I believe to be wolfy. But gut feel and intuition absolutely have science behind them. Mafia was developed as part of a class project on game theory.
The basic game, which relies so much on post analysis, when played well, is absolutely is better than chance, so it suggests that "feels" from posts and votes counts for a lot more than we think. Our brains put things together in ways that we can't even articulate yet generates accurate results more than we credit.
I'm learning more from the Mafia Universe and wiki site about wolf hunting - and what it comes down to, is interaction and specifically pressure.
You can put a villager and a wolf on the line under pressure, and both will at least consider how their reaction might make them look (at least villagers should a little, but not too much). However, the wolf has to more concerned with image control and where/how they manipulate things, while appearing truthful, than on the truth.
While I think you are correct that villagers are mostly screwing around D1, the wolves are just trying to appear so. That difference however slight, is there, and it may or may not be seen. Not to mention, not every villager is screwing around D1. We have a few expert wolf hunters imho (like Kara, AM, Pippy, come to mind but there are others) (and keep in mind expert wolf hunting I don't see as how accurate you are - but more about method, since the method alone can generate results for the rest of village). The theory of excellent wolf hunting is not just reading into what others are saying (that's more what I do, and it has its value) but *pushing* players in certain ways. That happens with votes placed and also questions.
The more I play, the more I realize that D1 isn't nearly as much the crapshoot as people think. It might be for that lynch close, but at that point, lines have been drawn. Wolves have committed to where they are and what their strategy was for D1. And there is *some* on their part, fact. D1 doesn't have to be a crapshoot, some of it is what villagers make of it.
Keep in mind, being too jokey on D1 can make you as a villager look wolfy. I used to rage against those conventions, and they shouldn't be taken as gospel but now I see there is something to be said for them.
Keep in mind too, it wasn't just your joke, but the timing. That really is next level post/vote analysis maneuver, (I'm weak at) and as I said, good villagers will be able to manipulate wolves with pressure into making choices that reveal they are not innocent in their choices.
Now, we weren't right about you. Of course, how your jokey vote was treated also told us a bit about the players doing so, so again, jokey votes can have more significance that we acknowledge.
Lastly, yes, I don't often see that D1 itself yields as the first death, a wolf. I *have* quite often seen it set village up to nail wolves as early as D2 or D3. That's significant timing. Nevermind how that D1/2/3 can set up village to catch the rest.
I think something like this was at work in Mel's game and in Pip's game, IRRW. (My new thing is if I recall wrong for WW, because I really do)
I was more or less just getting at the fact that short of a major screw up, wolf-hunting on D1 will rarely produce results and is pretty useless for the immediate result. You can sometimes get some good stuff out of it like the D2 Coop lynch in WWSmash, but a lot of times things don't usually come together in a meaningful way until D3/4, or at least this is how it has always worked out in my irl mafia games. That doesn't mean pressure votes, the conversation, or even the final tally isn't important, I just mean it's not enough data to provide any real value on its own.
You can take guesses and attempt to make reads (like people did with me), but they're almost entirely speculation that early in the game and I've found RNG voting to be just as effective as speculation on D1.
You can take guesses and attempt to make reads (like people did with me), but they're almost entirely speculation that early in the game and I've found RNG voting to be just as effective as speculation on D1.
Ah, yes, I see what you mean. I think my issue is more that, yes, villagers might RNG vote, but wolves will often say that, when in reality they haven't.
The other issue with RNG votes, is that it can make villagers look suspicious, and I just don't personally like any vote that has zero explained rationale. As much as we say reasons don't matter D1, I would argue they do. Not from villagers, but from wolves. How do we pressure wolves to give reasons when culture says it's OK to RNG? I guess the converse would be everyone RNGs, and knowing that, in hindsight wolf votes might stick out because they weren't (we use this logic all the time, really, looking back to D1 to determine that).
Well, of course, coming to that point, I am rethinking my stance on D1 and RNG votes, so I appreciate you putting up with the lengthy discourse.
The other issue with RNG votes, is that it can make villagers look suspicious, and I just don't personally like any vote that has zero explained rationale. As much as we say reasons don't matter D1, I would argue they do. Not from villagers, but from wolves. How do we pressure wolves to give reasons when culture says it's OK to RNG? I guess the converse would be everyone RNGs, and knowing that, in hindsight wolf votes might stick out because they weren't (we use this logic all the time, really, looking back to D1 to determine that).
Well, of course, coming to that point, I am rethinking my stance on D1 and RNG votes, so I appreciate you putting up with the lengthy discourse.
In response to the previously bolded:
This is why D1 conversation is important and RNG votes should not be set in stone. As long as there is conversation occurring and we're creating data which we can look back at later in the game then RNG votes, even from everyone, are okay to me (though it would obviously be more ideal for later data if some people don't RNG).
If someone isn't talking/is ghosting, isn't giving straight forward responses, or is coming across as generally shady then you can move off the RNG vote. I did this with a D2 RNG vote in Smash and voted for DVMD. As I said though, I don't think a D1 vote based off of hunting is any more successful than an RNG lynch, and unless someone gives me a really good reason to be suspicious of them I just don't see a reason to vote off a villager based on feelz D1.
If someone isn't talking/is ghosting, isn't giving straight forward responses, or is coming across as generally shady then you can move off the RNG vote. I did this with a D2 RNG vote in Smash and voted for DVMD. As I said though, I don't think a D1 vote based off of hunting is any more successful than an RNG lynch, and unless someone gives me a really good reason to be suspicious of them I just don't see a reason to vote off a villager based on feelz D1.
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You clearly haven’t played with DVMD much. She’s pretty hard to catch as a wolf in my experience.
I love whale sharks so much!!!! I want to dive with them. I have a vacation all planned out, I just haven’t been able to do it yet.
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So nothing she's said in particular?
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I do too...but I heard there are some trashy organizations out there that are not great to the whale sharks.
Would be interested in recommendations sometime from people who have experience
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In a calmer mood now. Haven't reread anything but willing to move past the pippy thing for now.
I honestly don't get the sar or coffee feels. Maybe I just haven't played with either enough.
Staggs "RNG" vote does feel like Mel's "RNG" role, but not really sure I find it particularly wolfy.
Dolphins post feels out of left field a bit. Can't deny ive gotten the random feels and dropped a vote based on that before but it almost feels like carefully staying out of making a contribution to the Lynch today. This might be pot calling the kettle black but for now,
###unlynch pippy###
###Lynch dolphin###
Finally, I feel like I've read a lot of village on village action today. That being said, I would like to hear more from the quieter players (including dolphin).
I honestly don't get the sar or coffee feels. Maybe I just haven't played with either enough.
Staggs "RNG" vote does feel like Mel's "RNG" role, but not really sure I find it particularly wolfy.
Dolphins post feels out of left field a bit. Can't deny ive gotten the random feels and dropped a vote based on that before but it almost feels like carefully staying out of making a contribution to the Lynch today. This might be pot calling the kettle black but for now,
###unlynch pippy###
###Lynch dolphin###
Finally, I feel like I've read a lot of village on village action today. That being said, I would like to hear more from the quieter players (including dolphin).
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Thr issue with coffee lynches on d1 is she is a pretty good player and lynching her d1 is not doing village a favor, though somehow she is always a d1 candidate
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Perhaps it is because she is a pretty good player
Or maybe it's that she refers to herself in the 3rd person
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I don't think Coffee is sounding very wolfy.
Not liking that a tie has been broken towards her twice now, either.
I'm more borderline on SAR. Last game she was broadcasting villager, this game...meh. I could go either way.
Not liking that a tie has been broken towards her twice now, either.
I'm more borderline on SAR. Last game she was broadcasting villager, this game...meh. I could go either way.
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I tend to be a quieter player in general, but in past games I ignored my D1 feels and they’ve been decent so I don’t mind placing a vote on jboo for now solely based on feels. But I may not give you a whole lot of things to analyze today, bc I really am driving, people needed food so currently at a Bojangles lol. But I know I haven’t played with you a lot, at least I don’t think I have. That I wanted to at least respond a little bit.
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No not really, I wish I had more to explain with. But you didn’t really explain SAR so I don’t personally have an issue with it at least on D1.
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Passengers and crew, ~2 hours until shift change.
The current candidates are listed in the 2nd Deck Lounge.
Day 2 Votes
SAR (4) - AM, genny, skimble, pippy
KC (1) - Coffeebean
DVMD () -
Bryndi (1) - dubz
Coffeebean (5) - jboo, Sobsob, bryndi, Stagg, Snowy
pippy (0) -
genny (1) - SAR
jboo (1) - dolph
dolphin (1) - kcough
14/16 passengers accounted for. @DVMDream, @allieh8607
Carry on with your business! Don't forget to check out the views.
The current candidates are listed in the 2nd Deck Lounge.
Day 2 Votes
SAR (4) - AM, genny, skimble, pippy
KC (1) - Coffeebean
DVMD () -
Bryndi (1) - dubz
Coffeebean (5) - jboo, Sobsob, bryndi, Stagg, Snowy
pippy (0) -
genny (1) - SAR
jboo (1) - dolph
dolphin (1) - kcough
14/16 passengers accounted for. @DVMDream, @allieh8607
Carry on with your business! Don't forget to check out the views.
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unlynch coffee
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Of course I was broadcasting villager to you... You were a wolf that killed me haha
Fwiw, not a fan of the coffee lynch either as I've pointed out earlier I'm still leaning village there too
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Well I know, but besides that
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Well I know, but besides that
I think a lot of depends on the amount of time I have too. People seem to read me more village when I have a lot of time to kick around thread to react to things people say. I read more sketchy when I can't do that, like today becaise I gotta make sure obsessively that puppies are still breathing (I am a very stressy puppy grandma)
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Going for the "brb gotta save the puppies" angle... baller
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Just a regular superhero
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And oddly effective
Unlynch SAR
Unlynch SAR
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Dammit this is leading up.to a D1 reveal. 
I might not be quite as angry if not for the fact that the last time I was lynched I had been leading a case against a wolf when the vote was swung to me and then the game was lost.
I might not be quite as angry if not for the fact that the last time I was lynched I had been leading a case against a wolf when the vote was swung to me and then the game was lost.
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Do you not have PM partners?Dammit this is leading up.to a D1 reveal.
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Getting caught up- but I see coffee is in the lead. I find it curious that she mentioned being PM partners with me when she was considering her First Mate vote like it was something that she would be utilizing...yet haven’t gotten anything from her. Unless she was only interesting in PMing if her partner was First Mate?
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I'm only interested in PMing people that 1. I have a read on 2. I need to share something with or 3. that PM me first as has always been the case
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You have an awful lot of conditions for someone who is about to be lynched.
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unlynch SAR
lynch Stagg
lynch Stagg
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Oh ok so if I PM you first suddenly the communication flood gates will open?
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The problem is there is.nothing I can say in PM that can help my case that I cant say on thread, and I risk sharing information with a wolf without witnesses to see it
There is a reason I never switched my vote yesterday to Allie, because she doesn't post enough for me to feel comfortable PMing her
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Yeah
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Well that's interesting...
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You converted me, so I RNG'd my vote.
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Yes, there is.
You can PM with 2 people. Set a booby trap or two.
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the circumstances today make it an unfavorable role to reveal to anyone
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I find it amusing that you said this, and then broke a tie towards Coffee when you unlynched SAR.
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Is that because it's a wolfy role?
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What is this, astrology? We use the stars on boats, but not like that.
Unfavorable or not, you already slapped a target on your back, so I'm not really sure what you're worried about at this point.
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So you voted very early today and it was RNG. Based on today’s conversation are you keeping your vote on KC or is there anyone else you have wolfier feels for? (Barring the need for a self prez vote)
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Well now I definitely want to keep my coffee vote
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? I didn't think it was tied at that point; I thought there was still one more on coffee than there was on SAR.
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Do you have an actual reason for switching or do you just not like my RNG?
There's a lot of interesting waffling going on right now that isn't helping some people's cases imo after going back and re-reading the thread so far...
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Fancy that! When people vote for reasons, it makes for interesting analysis
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bj had just unclenched coffee, putting it back to a tie. unless I can't count tonight?
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2013
- Messages
- 15,093
- Reaction score
- 29,219
stupid autocorrect. i say unlynch WAY MORE than unclench.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2017
- Messages
- 6,832
- Reaction score
- 9,779
Okay well.
I am the village blocker. I blocked dvmd last night to evaluate her as pm partner but wasn't quite ready to open line of communication. However seeing aas I'm about to die I did (I don't know if she is on, sent this in PM to her first). Also why I asked the questions that I did to genny, because if I'm village the other blocker is probably not.
Once I flip village you'll see I'm telling the truth blah blah blah
I am the village blocker. I blocked dvmd last night to evaluate her as pm partner but wasn't quite ready to open line of communication. However seeing aas I'm about to die I did (I don't know if she is on, sent this in PM to her first). Also why I asked the questions that I did to genny, because if I'm village the other blocker is probably not.
Once I flip village you'll see I'm telling the truth blah blah blah
