Market down 13%

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
It was up 25% last year? I was up a whopping 56% in my individual stock accounts last year.

yes. It can go down 20%. Heck it can go down 40% and we will be right at October 2016. Play the long game if you got 15 years or more.
 
We already have a thread about this 😵

Looks like it will be going down more today. Good time to put some cash in the market!
 
Wow this needs to turn soon. I'm gonna buy on Monday. Wish I hadn't bought so much last month
 
Made a move. I feel like trying to time these partial downturns is mostly luck. As someone said above, I'm in for 15 more years at least might as well take the opportunity to grab some free points while they are there.
 
You guys think the dip is over or more damage to come over the weekend?
 
After being 100 percent cash for a month or so, I bought into the Friday close.

I'm very close to stepping back from any more active trading. I made up the ground I needed to make up from getting started late, it's time to let market dynamics do their thing with my retirement accounts, and focus on other projects. I want something more tangible than digits in a computer.

I'm looking at getting into converting older houses into rental units, and constructing new ones.
 
periopdoc said:
I'm looking at getting into converting older houses into rental units, and constructing new ones.
Click to expand...

More power to ya. That’s certainly been a recipe for wealth for a lotta people. It’s just way more complicated than I want to make my life.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wkrdoc said:
You guys think the dip is over or more damage to come over the weekend?
Click to expand...

I have been buying equities and recently converted more cash/bonds into my brokerage accounts for even additional equities next week. Each time the market drops another 3-4 percent I add to my positions. Today, I got ETFs when the market was really down before it bounced up a bit. I expect more volatility next week so do not buy on up days yet. I think next week should be good for another 3-5% down from here but it may be intraday lows not the low at the close. I'd like to see another 10% down from here but I don't think I will get it. IMHO, this is all fear plus 2 quarters of recession. Stimulus up the arse is coming from USA and China. The world will be (already is) afloat in fiat currency. So, WHEN this virus abates the market will rocket back.
 
Since Trump has declared at his rally that the virus is a hoax by the democrats, all is well in the world and I’m sure the market is going to correct itself quickly!
 
1582944969983.png
 
nimbus said:
Nobody likes to lose money but it’s important to keep perspective. The S&P is back to where it was 5 months ago. It’s not a lifetime of savings lost. For those of us who have been fully invested, it’s just 5months of gains lost. Easy come, easy go.
Click to expand...
No, no, you're supposed to panic. Get out of here with that witchcraft ability to move the X axis of the S&P 500 graph out of the 1 month range. It's unnatural.
 
the market down, but still very expensive. I'm still sitting in all cash 💩

(before anyone freaks out and didn't read the other thread, i'm still trying to time the market to get it out of my system. My investment horizon is about 30-40 years).
 
dchz said:
the market down, but still very expensive. I'm still sitting in all cash 💩

(before anyone freaks out and didn't read the other thread, i'm still trying to time the market to get it out of my system. My investment horizon is about 30-40 years).
Click to expand...

So, I reviewed the P/E of hundreds of stocks and they are still expensive. There are very few bargains except ENERGY which has been left for dead. Travel, Airlines, hotels are all good "trades" due to COVID 19 fear but not necessarily great long term investments. I will likely take a small position in an airline company because they are being crushed due to fear. I like Boeing about $20 lower from here as well.

That said, the medium term outlook (4 months or more) are that stocks bounce back after more QE and interest rate cuts. These low rates and very low bond yields make expensive stocks look attractive. If we were living in normal times with regular interest rates and no QE then the market is NOT a buy. But, these are not normal times and once the fear subsides greed will take hold again. My 2 cents are start buying aggressively 5% lower from here.
I recommend the best Blue Chip companies for your portfolio at a 25% discount from their recent highs.
 
Reasons a stock market crash is the perfect time to buy:

  • Almost everything’s on sale.
  • Buy stocks with staying power while they’re undervalued.
  • Boost your shares of dividend stocks.
  • Even index funds are discounted.
  • You’re well-positioned for the recovery after the crash.
 
I do think equities are still very expensive but that has been the case for years now. These low interest rates and negative bond yields in most of the world make equities look attractive even at high P/Es. History has taught me is don't fight the FED and that when we get major market sell offs those are buying opportunities.

Fear creates opportunity. Panic creates wealth for those willing to buy.
 
The panic mode is full on," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a morning note.
The market may be "entering the period of peak fear," Neil Wilson, the chief market analyst for Markets.com, said in a morning note. "Blood is running in the streets."
Other analysts accepted that the coronavirus could weaken consumer demand and disrupt global supply chains, choking global economic growth and resulting in a bear market. Yet they argued the sell-off was overblown.
"It appears that the market has gotten ahead of itself and a rebound should be around the corner," Jasper Lawler, the head of research at London Capital Group, said in a morning note.
"The world isn't going to be pushed in a major recession just because of coronavirus," Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at AvaTrade, concurred in a morning note.
 
@BLADEMDA , I respect you as an anesthesiologist, and you've been a great influence on this board. Nothing but respect for you.

But i'm not gonna go invest in individual stocks or individual sectors. I'm just not qualified. Any edge I think I have, or any edge you think you have, is over confidence. May be someone that routinely invests in the market like @periopdoc may or may not have an edge. But i certainly do not. When the time comes i'm going in a low cost index fund.

Also I still think the market overall is expensive given what you've analyzed. I'm very cheap, so i probably will think the market is expensive for another 10-15% drop. then i'll buy back in.
 
dchz said:
@BLADEMDA , I respect you as an anesthesiologist, and you've been a great influence on this board. Nothing but respect for you.

But i'm not gonna go invest in individual stocks or individual sectors. I'm just not qualified. Any edge I think I have, or any edge you think you have, is over confidence. May be someone that routinely invests in the market like @periopdoc may or may not have an edge. But i certainly do not. When the time comes i'm going in a low cost index fund.

Also I still think the market overall is expensive given what you've analyzed. I'm very cheap, so i probably will think the market is expensive for another 10-15% drop. then i'll buy back in.
Click to expand...

The vast majority of my money is in ETFs, highly diversified, like the Russel 1000 or S and P 500. I'd say 80% ETFs, Mutual Funds vs individual equities.

I totally agree you should be buying the overall market or maybe a good technology ETF as well. I apologize if I gave the impression that most of my retirement money is in single companies. In fact, I don't own a single individual stock in any of my 401Ks, IRAs, etc.

As for waiting for another 10% down that sounds great. I would encourage you to start nibbling another 3-5% down from here as the market is way oversold.
 
periopdoc said:
After being 100 percent cash for a month or so, I bought into the Friday close.

I'm very close to stepping back from any more active trading. I made up the ground I needed to make up from getting started late, it's time to let market dynamics do their thing with my retirement accounts, and focus on other projects. I want something more tangible than digits in a computer.

I'm looking at getting into converting older houses into rental units, and constructing new ones.
Click to expand...

If there are a lot of deaths from the virus - and these deaths would be disproportionately high in dense cities - the real estate market will "suffer."
 
I never said there would be no effect on markets, stock or real estate. What I am saying is that the current reaction is overblown, given the data we currently have at hand, and disruption to most things will be transient, not sustained.

When we have new, reliable, data, we can re-evaluate. But people are panicking right now, and I don't see the numbers to support the level of panic.

Unless things take a drastic change for the worse this weekend, I think markets stabilize this next week, which is why I started laddering back in before close on Friday.

There was pretty heavy buying into the close. Buuuut, for you market history types, corrections have never bottomed on a Friday.

I haven't been actively trading for a month or two, but the algo set up was pretty clear. The market was heavily over weighted, and the quants were primed to take it down. They just needed a catalyst. No one new what the catalyst would be, but everyone who knows anything about quant and algo trading had to know that the market was springloaded for a big dip.

You also have all the dark pools who hate Trump, and were just waiting for the opportunity to tank the economy going into the election. They have been trying to crack this thing, but the Trump economy has just been too strong until now.
 
periopdoc said:
I never said there would be no effect on markets, stock or real estate. What I am saying is that the current reaction is overblown, given the data we currently have at hand, and disruption to most things will be transient, not sustained.

When we have new, reliable, data, we can re-evaluate. But people are panicking right now, and I don't see the numbers to support the level of panic.

Unless things take a drastic change for the worse this weekend, I think markets stabilize this next week, which is why I started laddering back in before close on Friday.

There was pretty heavy buying into the close. Buuuut, for you market history types, corrections have never bottomed on a Friday.

I haven't been actively trading for a month or two, but the algo set up was pretty clear. The market was heavily over weighted, and the quants were primed to take it down. They just needed a catalyst. No one new what the catalyst would be, but everyone who knows anything about quant and algo trading had to know that the market was springloaded for a big dip.

You also have all the dark pools who hate Trump, and were just waiting for the opportunity to tank the economy going into the election. They have been trying to crack this thing, but the Trump economy has just been too strong until now.
Click to expand...
You seem to think that reliable data drives the market when the last 30 years have proven the opposite.

The market drives the data unfortunately. People react in many absurd ways. Usually insane. We can only follow along. Most of the time it goes up.

Im sure you know orders of magnitude about the market than me. He'll I'm down 15%this last week so what the hell do I know
 
periopdoc said:
I never said there would be no effect on markets, stock or real estate. What I am saying is that the current reaction is overblown, given the data we currently have at hand, and disruption to most things will be transient, not sustained.

When we have new, reliable, data, we can re-evaluate. But people are panicking right now, and I don't see the numbers to support the level of panic.

Unless things take a drastic change for the worse this weekend, I think markets stabilize this next week, which is why I started laddering back in before close on Friday.

There was pretty heavy buying into the close. Buuuut, for you market history types, corrections have never bottomed on a Friday.

I haven't been actively trading for a month or two, but the algo set up was pretty clear. The market was heavily over weighted, and the quants were primed to take it down. They just needed a catalyst. No one new what the catalyst would be, but everyone who knows anything about quant and algo trading had to know that the market was springloaded for a big dip.

You also have all the dark pools who hate Trump, and were just waiting for the opportunity to tank the economy going into the election. They have been trying to crack this thing, but the Trump economy has just been too strong until now.
Click to expand...

God please don't make this a political thing like Don Jr.
 
periopdoc said:
I never said there would be no effect on markets, stock or real estate. What I am saying is that the current reaction is overblown, given the data we currently have at hand, and disruption to most things will be transient, not sustained.

When we have new, reliable, data, we can re-evaluate. But people are panicking right now, and I don't see the numbers to support the level of panic.

Unless things take a drastic change for the worse this weekend, I think markets stabilize this next week, which is why I started laddering back in before close on Friday.

There was pretty heavy buying into the close. Buuuut, for you market history types, corrections have never bottomed on a Friday.

I haven't been actively trading for a month or two, but the algo set up was pretty clear. The market was heavily over weighted, and the quants were primed to take it down. They just needed a catalyst. No one new what the catalyst would be, but everyone who knows anything about quant and algo trading had to know that the market was springloaded for a big dip.

You also have all the dark pools who hate Trump, and were just waiting for the opportunity to tank the economy going into the election. They have been trying to crack this thing, but the Trump economy has just been too strong until now.
Click to expand...
www.cnbc.com

Virus recession? Top economist Ed Hyman sees zero US growth the next two quarters

"More cases are showing up in the U.S. and seem likely to be just the start," Ed Hyman said. "Scope, severity, and duration are uncertain."
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Some top economists sure think this thing is serious and things are just getting started.
 
Overvaluation, actually algorithmic extreme, is the why, Coronavirus is the excuse. The market was at an algorithmic extreme, and the quants were waiting for a trigger to take it down.
 
More proof that buy and hold is the right thing to do, for long-term investors, provided that one is properly diversified (see Bogle's and Buffett's advice). Timing the market is a fool's errand (says this fool).


image.png


ritholtz.com

Watching From Afar - The Big Picture

Source: Mike Batnick I am back from the least relaxing vacation ever. Not due to the market, but family issues (Mom’s recovering from a pacemaker implant) and that meant this was not the sort of stress-free getaway one hopes for in a vacation. My uncanny knack for traveling during market...
ritholtz.com ritholtz.com
 
Last edited by a moderator:
earning season will be dismal for a lot of company dependent on China or other countries for manufacturing.
 
The market is responding to new information as it becomes known, but the market is pricing in unknowns, too. As risk increases during a time of heightened uncertainty, so do the returns investors demand for bearing that risk, which pushes prices lower. Prices are set to deliver positive future expected returns for holding risky assets. The key is what's expected is not necessarily what you get.
 
GaseousClay said:
earning season will be dismal for a lot of company dependent on China or other countries for manufacturing.
Click to expand...
That seems plausible. But is there any reason to think that this expectation isn't already reflected in the stock prices for those companies?
 
dchz said:
@BLADEMDA , I respect you as an anesthesiologist, and you've been a great influence on this board. Nothing but respect for you.

But i'm not gonna go invest in individual stocks or individual sectors. I'm just not qualified. Any edge I think I have, or any edge you think you have, is over confidence. May be someone that routinely invests in the market like @periopdoc may or may not have an edge. But i certainly do not. When the time comes i'm going in a low cost index fund.

Also I still think the market overall is expensive given what you've analyzed. I'm very cheap, so i probably will think the market is expensive for another 10-15% drop. then i'll buy back in.
Click to expand...

The problem with this is that you dont know if it will drop another 15%. What if it just bounces and takes off (not going to happen but providing you with an analogy)? The best thing to do would be to dollar-cost average. Im going to add in intervals until my cash is fully invested, since theres no real way to time the bottom.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TheLoneWolf
Current job market
2
Replies
92
Views
8K
NightyNight
N
N
Market in Austin, TX?
2
Replies
50
Views
4K
aneftp
A
T
Job market in Denver ?
Replies
18
Views
2K
deleted87051
D
B
Big beautiful bill effect on locums market
Replies
32
Views
3K
aneftp
A
G
Orange County Market
2 3
Replies
107
Views
12K
aneftp
A
Top