MCAT Estimator Spreadsheet (w/ Poll: How accurate was it for you?)

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apumic

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EDIT: New version uploaded with fixes to some issues below. This one should also give more accurate score reporting as I have recalibrated the algorithm slightly as it appears MCAT scores were being estimated too high (2 "4+ too high" scorers' scores were taken into account to make the changes -- the changes will fix those 4+s to about a 1-2 points higher than expected, which is about the target range -- within 1-2 points of correct).

This was previously a part of the now defunct Med School Spreadsheet. Since everything in this spreadsheet is (c) 2010 Yours Truly (apumic), I have decided to re-release the MCAT Estimator as its own, "stand-alone application." It is meant simply as a tool to help you estimate where your MCAT score might fall based upon prior academic and test taking performance. The data used include several studies correlating GPA and performance on various exams to performance on the MCAT. In addition, studies examining MCAT examinees as a population with other relevant populations were used.

This is meant as a general estimate and should not be taken too seriously. It may be useful in helping to determine whether or not retaking is likely to increase your score as well as when you are ready to take based upon how your scores on recent practice tests line up with what one would expect you could attain based upon previous performance.

Also, I would like to poll people to see how close their MCAT scores were to those predicted by this tool, so please vote. It should be interesting to see!
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This looks like a pretty cool spreadsheet. How did it compare to the AAMC tests' predictions for you guys?
 
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Cool! Predicted 9 9 9, I ended up getting 8 11 12

Very similar predictions to my AAMC practice tests, though those ranged, I was averagely getting 9's heading into my test, but I guess the pressure of test day bumped me up a few points for VR and BS! :)
 
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I input both my GPA's and my GRE scores (from 7 years ago).

I've taken the MCAT exactly one time and the Predictor did a perfect job of predicting my total score, but it over estimated my verbal score and underestimated my science scores.

Pretty cool!
 
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Wow! This is awesome!
I see it supposedly predicts USMLE scores, which seems pretty much impossible. Has it been close to anyone's actual score? It sounds like it's pretty close on people's MCAT scores.... Hopefully I'll get the 35 or so this thing is predicting!
 
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mmmcdowe said:
Wow, it predicted my composite score exactly! Breakdown was wrong.
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Interesting. How "off" was your breakdown? It definitely tends to overestimate how well-rounded your scores will be. You'd have to be pretty lop-sided on your GPA and SAT scores, for instance, to get much different from all scores being the same +/- 1 point. To get the "classic SDN" unbalanced high MCAT w/ a low VR, for instance, 9VR/12PS/11BS (TTL 31) requires an ACT of 14 English/36 Math/20 Soc Sci/36 Nat Sci w/ 3.0 cGPA/4.0 sGPA & 520 Verbal/750 Math on the SAT. In other words, it doesn't tend to predict breakdowns well if they're not balanced. This is because, statistically, people who do well on one section tend to do well on the other sections as well. Additionally, the same things correlate strongly w/ all 3 sections.
 
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Cinclus said:
Based on my GPA, GRE, and SAT, it predicts a 37. That'd be nice. I'll get back to you in June about my real score. Neat tool.
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Look at the range as well but if you've been that strong consistently, you probably could pull a 37. Of course, actual preparation comes into play very strongly here. What would be nice would be to create a matrix of scores and find how it compares across scores...but I don't have that kind of time nor desire to put in that kind of effort in analysis.
 
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Rabolisk said:
And I've always thought that this tool was of little use.
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SuperCoolStoryBro.png


I think the previous poster was wondering whether your score was close to what was expected. While you may not think it is useful, a tool that gives a general range of expected scores for someone can be a good estimation of whether you are performing at or near your prior level of performance. In addition, it gives an early estimate as to where you might sit in comparison with your peers.

As for its accuracy, n=146 at this point and the trend is that over 40% score within 1 point of its prediction. Another 41% score more than 1 point above the predicted score, while <1 in 5 score more than 1 pt below the predicted score. That gives people a good feel for what they can expect to reasonably hit. I want it to estimate on the slightly low side so that people are positively surprised and not negatively surprised if it is wrong.
 
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I know what he was wondering, and I think, based on experience, I don't believe the tool to be that useful. It seems to underestimate the score if <20% score more than 1 pt below, but 41% score more than 1 point above. I don't think this deviation is huge, but it is statistically significant. Of course, if this is how it's meant to be, then it is what it is.
 
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After putting in my GPA, I get PS 9, BS 9, VR 8= 27...After putting in my SAT, I get PS 9, BS 9, and VR 13 = 30, and after putting in GRE scores I get PS 12, BS 12, VR 13 = 37
my real MCAT was 36 with PS 9, BS 12, VR 13...so I guess in a way all of them were right on in some way.
 
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felixthekat said:
After putting in my GPA, I get PS 9, BS 9, VR 8= 27...After putting in my SAT, I get PS 9, BS 9, and VR 13 = 30, and after putting in GRE scores I get PS 12, BS 12, VR 13 = 37
my real MCAT was 36 with PS 9, BS 12, VR 13...so I guess in a way all of them were right on in some way.
Click to expand...

Haha... well, and your scores have been all over the place so any approximation would be rough at best. Since you've scored "equivalent" to everything from 27-37, you'd be expected to score somewhere in that range. Nice job on the 36!!!
 
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WOW!! Pretty darn close. I put in SAT/GPA/ACT and it gave me a 34 VR:12 BS:11 PS:11 and I got a 35 VR:11 BS:12 PS:12
 
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It's interesting -- the MCAT Estimator Spreadsheet's predictions appear to be almost equivalent to the AAMC exams in predictive value! (Check this poll.)

The main difference is that the Estimator tends to slightly favor predictions on the low side (which was by design), whereas the AAMC tests tend to err on the high side.
 
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Did anybody look at the disclaimer? lmao

"Furthermore, by using this program, you promise to meet at least once/month individually with a PhD- or MD-level qualified pre-med advisor and discuss the results of this spreadsheet and/or your overall application with this person as well as regularly consult the MSAR..."

"If you cannot or will not agree to the above agreement you must immediately destroy this spreadsheet file from your computer and notify apumic through a PM of such action."

This is kind of ridiculous. :laugh:
 
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Freigeist said:
Did anybody look at the disclaimer? lmao

"Furthermore, by using this program, you promise to meet at least once/month individually with a PhD- or MD-level qualified pre-med advisor and discuss the results of this spreadsheet and/or your overall application with this person as well as regularly consult the MSAR..."

"If you cannot or will not agree to the above agreement you must immediately destroy this spreadsheet file from your computer and notify apumic through a PM of such action."

This is kind of ridiculous. :laugh:
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I think it was meant to be over the top...maybe a little bit of a joke while still giving ridiculous legal "protection" -- kind of like the "Warning! Hot coffee may be very hot!" labels on McDonald's coffee cups.
 
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From my ACT, predicted 31
From my SAT, 34
From GPA, 31

Got a 34 on the real thing, and the cumulative predicted a 34, so I would say this tool is very good for ballparking.

Incidentally, I think those who score way above their predicted value (more than 4 points above their predicted value) should share their MCAT study tips as it is possible they prepared in a better way. This is assuming, of course, that there weren't other explanations for the deviation ( i.e., "I was drunk the night before my SAT")
 
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I would like the spreadsheet more if the colors didn't hurt my eyes
 
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Wow 30-39 but my ACT/SAT give me around a 38 hahaha I wish I scored that high. We'll see in 9 days. I'll let you know how it goes.
 
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have you thought of making one for scores on different AAMCs?

the mean scores of AAMCs this january didn't seem to be representative of the scores received on the real thing.
 
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Predicted from spreadsheet: 36
Actual: 37

Seems relatively accurate to me.
 
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MrNeuro said:
what stats did you use?
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I had an ACT of 33, so that predicted something like a 36. Even though my GPA is in the mid to upper 3.8s, that predicted like a 32. Inputting my first four practice test scores brought it overall up to a 36 (helped having a 39 on AAMC 4 haha...)
 
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Hm, it predicted a 35 for me (13V/11B/11P). I think it's being a little overly optimistic but I guess we'll see.
 
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Sorry if it's already been covered but can someone explain what exactly the "Social Sciences" and "Natural Sciences" sections of the ACT are? As far as I remember there were 4 sections: Math, Reading, English, and Science Reasoning.

There was no section called Social Sciences or Natural Sciences, though the Reading portion of the ACT had 4 separate passages, 2 of which were "Social Science" passages and "Natural Science" passages. The other two were Prose Fiction and Humanities.
 
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Wow! This estimate is pretty discouraging.... I mean I guess since I did average in the SAT and my GPA is pretty average too that it makes sense to predict an average MCAT... but I really hope all my studying bumps this prediction up by a LOT (like at least 4-5 points? please?)
 
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breeniee said:
Wow! This estimate is pretty discouraging.... I mean I guess since I did average in the SAT and my GPA is pretty average too that it makes sense to predict an average MCAT... but I really hope all my studying bumps this prediction up by a LOT (like at least 4-5 points? please?)
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I think the SAT and ACT predictors are there based off of how well you are at standardized testing. GPA is a hard one to nail though as courses are a combination of your testing skill plus homework/labs/papers. So I would say don't get discouraged as the MCAT is largely knowledge based plus just a bit of testing skill (knowing how long you should be spending on each question and getting the main idea or focus of each question).
 
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MDschoolorbust said:
I think the SAT and ACT predictors are there based off of how well you are at standardized testing. GPA is a hard one to nail though as courses are a combination of your testing skill plus homework/labs/papers. So I would say don't get discouraged as the MCAT is largely knowledge based plus just a bit of testing skill (knowing how long you should be spending on each question and getting the main idea or focus of each question).
Click to expand...


Yeah I know....I mean the overall score is kind of discouraging but the range isn't too bad. I know I'm putting effort into it and in the end I think it'll get me up there on the higher end of the range (and maybe beyond? *hopeful*)
 
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SAT prediction: 34
GPA prediction (3.7--BME=hard!): 30
Overall: 31
range: 24-37
AAMC avg: 34.5 with max 37 and min 32
Actual 38!
Maybe there should be a section for difficulty of major bcuz a 3.7 in one major =/= 3.7 in easy major
 
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This did not agree with me. The estimated verbal scores for me were 10+ and I got a 6. I usually get 6's and 7's on the verbal so I have no idea how they are able to relate the GPA to your performance on verbal...
 
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ACT = 34
SAT = 33
GPA = 31

Actual MCAT = 34.

Pretty impressive tool. I imagined my GPA would low-ball me because my school is pretty big on grade deflation (thanks, a-holes).
 
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So what exactly are the "Natural Sciences" and "Social Sciences" section of the ACT? There were no such sections on the previous ACT that I took, nor are they the sections on the current ACT.
 
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