How great is the MD bias in matching into competitive fields like cards, derm, ortho, etc? If we have genuine interests in those fields (aside from monetary considerations), would it be advisable to forgo applying to DO schools during the first admissions cycle? Assume the applicant has MD quality stats and doesn't mind reapplying a second cycle (adding DO applications at that time) if necessary.
Short Answer: I mean if your stats are good enough that you'll probably get accepted, just apply MD. But if it's between going DO or waiting another year to reapply plus DO, I'd go DO.
Long Answer: It's hard to say and could vary based on specialty.
I can't really support the claim that there is a strong DO bias in any specific specialty with data. Could there be in specific programs? Absolutely. I've looked the match data at least a little while for an article I've wanted to write. I can't take into account people in DO schools who might have wanted to match into competitive specialties but didn't bother applying to any programs however.
The match data is very misleading because it'll add in seniors who just ranked like one or two programs and make it seem like they didn't match. If you rank one or two family medicine programs, your odds are not bad. If you rank one or two orthopedic surgery programs, your odds are basically zero. I'll use orthopedic surgery as an example, because it has the best data. You really have to want to match into orthopedic surgery. If you don't go to sleep and dream of Ancef, bones and cash; that's not good enough. You gotta be all-in baby.
You have to start with the assumption that the applicant is reasonably competitive for that specialty on paper, they aren't a serial killer, and they employ an optimal application strategy. The NRMP is a functional matching system with sensible limitations on how many applications you can send to programs. Therefore the optimal strategy to match into orthopedic surgery is to apply to every orthopedic surgery program in the country and rank them all contiguously. The strongest predictor of an applicant's ability to match into a specific specialty is the number of contiguous programs ranked to the point where pretty much no other criteria even matters.
When you look at the DO student data, only 17 students applied and only 4 matched. Sounds bad right? Not quite. The average number of ortho programs contiguously ranked for unmatched seniors was 1.2, and for matched seniors was 4.3. Both of these are less than than the MD seniors average number of contiguously ranked ortho programs for both matched and unmatched seniors. Matched MD seniors ranked 12 programs contiguously on average, and unmatched seniors ranked 6 programs on average.
All 4 of the matched DO seniors only applied to orthopedic surgery only applied to ortho programs. One ballsy person only ranked 2 programs but the rest all ranked at least 4. Any osteopathic senior who ranked more than 2 programs had a 100% match rate... yup. All 13 of the students who didn't match, all ranked 2 programs contiguously or less. I have to wonder if there's something wrong with the data because that also means that a significant portion of the seniors that didn't match only ranked orthopedic surgery programs, and only ranked one program and none of them matched.
So really when you look at the people who applied smart, you have 3 seniors basically with a 100% match rate. When I looked at a few other specialties it's kind of the same story, there's so few applicants and so many of them don't apply smart that you can't really draw any kind of inference. I think the "DO Bias" is based on more urban legend than actual data and reason.