Ok, cool, I see where you got the numbers from now. Well, all I can do is tell you what I know. Currently, AUC is accepting about 100ish students in May, 120ish in January, and 200ish in September. I know that in the past, those numbers were lower, particularly for the September class (I think much lower, more like 120ish). So, for those matching in 2010, they would've started in 2006, so I think around 300 would be accurate. But, it could be lower than 300. It's hard to say since the students who started did so in 2006. Usually by the 1st week you have something like 10 people either not show up, or just leave the island without really starting. It happens, I suppose.
I can tell you what I know of the current match stats for AUC. The school put on a small seminar for students to discuss match rates, and why people don't match from AUC. Here are the numbers we were told for this year:
Pre-Match: 16%
NRMP Match: 63%
Scramble: 5%
Total Match: 84%
They also said they knew of some pre-matches out there that had not yet been reported, so they believed that number to be about 90% afte those came in, which according to the school, is the same as it was in 2010. Most of those matches, of course, were primary care as you can see in your stats from above. However, for those students who worked hard, some great matches are in that list as well. It was also stated that of those who did not match, 75% of them failed Step 1 on the first attempt, so that has a lot to do with not matching from the Carib. I apologize for not having a link to these facts, which I know makes it "anecdotal", but this is what I was told by the administration, and judging from what I have heard from older students, this seems to make sense.
Judging by your math above, it is possible the number that started and did not match is 55%.....as we said, tough to say from students starting in 2006. Currently, based on my experience at the school, I don't believe it is that high now, but you would have to really look at the 2012, 2013 matches to know, which are a few years away. I do know that of the folks who took the Step last year, 94% passed on the first try, so I also think the attrition numbers are decreasing. I know one of the profs on the Adcom, and based on supply and demand, AUC has been accepting a lot better caliber undergrad student in the last couple of years. (Not to say that those who came before me weren't up to snuff, I am sure they have made excellent physicians. Only referring to undergrad performance).
The only downside to what I just wrote is it is based mostly on experience, what I have been told by the administration, and it is hard to find straight up data out there on the websites.