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671002
Is there a rule of thumb for the number of interviews needed to match into psychiatry? 
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(Number Needed To Match) = (STEP1)e^(λt)η+(STEP2)*sqrt(e^(λt)η+e^λt+sqrt(US NEWS WORLD REPORT SCHOOL RESEARCH RANK))
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Sloppy. It's (Number Needed To Match) = (STEP1)e^(λt)η(CLASS RANK)+(STEP2)*sqrt(e^(λt)η(CLASS RANK)+e^λt+sqrt(US NEWS WORLD REPORT SCHOOL RESEARCH RANK))
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How could I have missed that!
6
671002
I think I saw that formula somewhere in First Aid but must have forgotten it. 
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Same way you missed using a question mark there.
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Ah I see, thanks. Looks like last year 11 ranks gave US MDs a 95% chance of matching. That's more ranks than I remembered.
Anecdotal data for OP: Last year I ended up ranking 13 as a US MD, all but one within a 2-hour drive from my hometown. Matched well.
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not missed my friend, but intentional for effect
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Depending on your home program, you may only need 1 interview. My home program (lower competitive range) basically said I could pretend to interview (not show) and I’d be a guaranteed match. They knew me, and they are not competitive. I ranked them last FYI, so it’s not like the offer was a good one.
Outside of a guarantee, I’d say most applicants should rank 10-20 to be sure of a match. A few extra thousand dollars to interview is worth guaranteeing yourself a good future.
Outside of a guarantee, I’d say most applicants should rank 10-20 to be sure of a match. A few extra thousand dollars to interview is worth guaranteeing yourself a good future.
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Check out the info on the page below.It actually talks about, number of applications versus number of programs ranked.
Apply smart in psychiatry: New data to consider - Careers In Medicine
Apply smart in psychiatry: New data to consider - Careers In Medicine
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If you have no red flags, decent step scores, and went to a good institution (average to above-average candidate), 8-10 should be fine.
It's hard to evaluate the number of ranked programs figure because plenty of stellar applicants only rank 5-6 places and plenty of bottom-tier applicants also rank 5-6 places. Would be more helpful to be able to slice that data by scores or some other composite objective measure.
If you have a decent near-guaranteed or guaranteed offer, that also helps (if your home program is a good option you don't have to interview at as many places.)
It's hard to evaluate the number of ranked programs figure because plenty of stellar applicants only rank 5-6 places and plenty of bottom-tier applicants also rank 5-6 places. Would be more helpful to be able to slice that data by scores or some other composite objective measure.
If you have a decent near-guaranteed or guaranteed offer, that also helps (if your home program is a good option you don't have to interview at as many places.)
