"Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student."
Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data
somewhat wrong. In an older study too, correlation was like .4 overall and like .6 for bio section, if I'm remembering correctly. it's weak to moderately predictive. Something like an LSAT MCAT would correlate much better. MCAT is much more of a thinking test. But I've had this argument a 100 times.
harvard with an mcat average at 36 had a usmle average in 230s. UCSF had average mcat of 35 and average in the 220s. Baylor 34 and the
higest average in the nation at mid 240s. My school average MCAT is a 32 and average at pretty much 230.
Teach to the test and students will do better on average. One can overcome their school not doing this and get in the 260s. Carib students and DO kids who sometimes failed to break a 30 on amultiple attempts sometimes also get 260s and 270s. It happens more than you'd think. This is at baseline an effort and dedication test. Other things matter and make life easier but only slightly.
Also, these scores are an arbitrary screen. You can train a dedicated 220 scorer to be a great neurosurgeon. They are used as an artificial barrier to preclude people because training funding for residency is limited by Congress and lobbying of certain groups keeps spots low. STEP1 is seen as a highly imperfect yet the most objective of all markers currently in use. Given our current system, it is better there than not. Otherwise prestige would rule more and we would trend more and more towards how something like law works, where top schools have a monopoly on graduate placements into the most lucrative and prestigious jobs.
Frankly medicine is much more of a field of effort, dedication, and grit than deep thought, outside of niches of highly specialized people routinely doing weird/hard cases, research, and medical device innovation.
Here is a table of MCAT and USMLE scores by specialty
Data and Analysis - AAMC
The
highest average MCAT was neurosurgery with an average of a
33. That's not much above the mean of matriculating US MD students. The USMLE is a licensing test, not an aptitude test. It is designed to test knowledge and not to be g loaded heavy. If you can get into a US MD school on your own merits, you can crush this test.