Okami WW Game Thread

[Lawpy]

Advertisement - Members don't see this ad

*****************
Day 1: May the Fresh Scent of Flowers Protect You Always Tally

fluff (1) - AM
True ()
Zenge (3) - Zuri, True, Visc
AM (1) - fluff
DubZ (2) - Sporty, WO2
samac ()
Cray ()
WO2 (1) - Cray
zuri (2) - Zenge, samac
Vis (1) - Dubz

leading: @Zenge142
Voting: 11/12
Missing: @genny
Vote closed

****************

Day 2: Leap Before You Think *FINAL* Tally

zuri ()
Cray ()
Visc (1) - Sporty
WO2 (5)- samac, fluff, True, AM, Cray
fluff (1) - Visc
True (3) - WO2, zuri, genny

10/10

Missing: n/a
Leading: @WorthlessOxygen

Vote closed TODAY at 9 p.m. CST (0 MINUTES)

Quoting these tallies

 

[Lawpy]

unyeet zuri
yeet true

I guess I can try this for now, but it does make me nervous that I won't be able to talk to you around close.

Unyeet Vis
Yeet Oxy

Day 2: Leap Before You Think Tally

zuri ()
Cray ()
Visc (1) - Sporty
WO2 (4)- samac, fluff, True, AM
fluff (1) - Visc
True (3) - WO2, zuri, genny

9/10

Missing: @Crayola227
Leading: @WorthlessOxygen

Vote closes TODAY at 9 p.m. CST (~4 hours)

Requoting these

 

[Lawpy]

I would like to hear you talk about them as well then. Unless you believe every wolf bussed.

Concerned about genny for voting reasons similar to making me feel good about you. I don’t understand Sporty’s D1 vote on WZ, but vissy was pretty much slammed in D2 over the EOD events of D1. I don’t agree with that vote obviously but as I mentioned earlier a few times, I myself came into conclusions opposite to vissy’s repeatedly so I can’t really say the rationale for that vote is bad. It just sucks for me. Zuris makes interesting cases but we really can’t rule out the possibility that he could just be powerwolfing here especially given that he has more WW familiarity through earlier pregame discussions with fluffy.

 

[zuriburi]

It’s not a comparative thing. The fact that I think Woxy was bussed in D2 doesn’t mean the Woxy offwagon voters are village or less wolfy. I’m strictly arguing against the point that the Woxy wagon is pure.

I know you’re doing your best catching up, and Doing your best, but focusing On this case does feel very wolfy to me. My guess would be that a villager would look at the state of play and start with suspicion on the people who hadn’t caught a wolf: me, genny, sportponies, and you. if we’re assuming 3 wolves, and even if you like me for whatever reason, there’s still sportponies and genny, who seem like pretty obvious suspects from a village!lawpy, especially sportponies who has been pushing visc for a while. But if I’m right and the village bloc consensus is building that includes the woxy train and me for my tryhard behavior, and you’re a wolf, then that’s a pretty dangerous place to be because you know the only suspects left for that village bloc is you, sport and genny. If you’re trying to avoid bussing, that leaves you pretty backed into a corner. In this scenario an elaborate argument for potential bussing inside of the woxy train scans as a more desperate attempt to sow some distrust and dissent within the village consensus as a last ditch attempt to stir up some misyeets within the village. the only other route would be to push for a misyeet outside of the village bloc, either me or sporty, but then when either of us flip village you know you’ll look worse and the remaining suspects would be 2/3 wolf at that point.

 

[Crayola227]

But O2s direct interactions with sporty?
*drumroll please* nada

Yes but that isn't difficult between 2 players that are hardly here

 

[Lawpy]

I know you’re doing your best catching up, and Doing your best, but focusing On this case does feel very wolfy to me. My guess would be that a villager would look at the state of play and start with suspicion on the people who hadn’t caught a wolf: me, genny, sportponies, and you. if we’re assuming 3 wolves, and even if you like me for whatever reason, there’s still sportponies and genny, who seem like pretty obvious suspects from a village!lawpy, especially sportponies who has been pushing visc for a while. But if I’m right and the village bloc consensus is building that includes the woxy train and me for my tryhard behavior, and you’re a wolf, then that’s a pretty dangerous place to be because you know the only suspects left for that village bloc is you, sport and genny. If you’re trying to avoid bussing, that leaves you pretty backed into a corner. In this scenario an elaborate argument for potential bussing inside of the woxy train scans as a more desperate attempt to sow some distrust and dissent within the village consensus as a last ditch attempt to stir up some misyeets within the village. the only other route would be to push for a misyeet outside of the village bloc, either me or sporty, but then when either of us flip village you know you’ll look worse and the remaining suspects would be 2/3 wolf at that point.

You’re misunderstanding my point of ruling out the purity of D2 woxy wagon as focusing exclusively on bussing and attempts to disrupt the bloc. No, the bloc speaks for itself, but let’s not act like Woxy was some very difficult wolf to find who had little to no suspicion. The events of late D1 speak loud and clear that Woxy was in danger. Yes considering the Woxy offwagon voters is also important, but clearing the entire wagon just because they voted a wolf that was already heavily suspected a day earlier is a dangerous move.

The reason why i mention this is because there are many precedents of the same exact mountainous setups where wolves won crushingly simply because village kept clearing wagons. My whole point is: take into account of everything and viewing the WO2 wagon as pure is premature, inaccurate and dangerous

 

[Crayola227]

How I feel at 4:30 am Yeet order

Sporty
Visc
Genny
Zuri
Cray
Fluff
True
AM

List is reasonable. Need to catch up tho with the sub and all that

 

[Lawpy]

Also for the record, wolves have been in village blocs in mountainous games as recently as… a few days ago

 

[Crayola227]

The only way I’ve ever caught sporty wolfing by the way is interaction checks after flips. If you want to look at examples there’s Marvel with fluff and then there’s MHA with zenge.

Did I play MHA? Did I die early? How?

 

[zuriburi]

Also for the record, wolves have been in village blocs in mountainous games as recently as… a few days ago

I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I do think that being your first line of argument tracks more with a wolf than a village entry My confidence in the woxy bloc is Primarily that none of them caved and jumped on my true push which seems like a pretty solid way to get at least a woxy saving tie and at best a double misyeet on true then me as a .
perfectly reasonable wolf to take the fall for the true misyeet

 

[justafluff]

Who'd she waffle to?

So I guess she didn't. I went through the pages of D1, she voted wOxy at 1:39 pm and then re-voted xOxy at 6:59pm PST 1 min before close. I had this in my mind from samac, and thought she had jumped off, but she voted xOxy twice after saying she can't keep up.

I don’t know how I feel about cray’s

Samac wolf
Oh wait I’m jiving with her she not wolf
To samac wolf
To voting o2
Saying haha it was a low hanging fruit reaction test got ya
To ending on o2
Am confused

In any case, she was the first on the wOxy wagon, when there was no need for bussing (wOxy wasn't in danger) so unless we are looking at deepwolfing after exhausting other options, Id rather village read Cray.

 

[Lawpy]

I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I do think that being your first line of argument tracks more with a wolf than a village entry My confidence in the woxy bloc is Primarily that none of them caved and jumped on my true push which seems like a pretty solid way to get at least a woxy saving tie and at best a double misyeet on true then me as a .
perfectly reasonable wolf to take the fall for the true misyeet

And risk throwing themselves under the spotlight? Let’s be real. Truey’s case on Woxy speaks louder and is much more compelling on its own even when factoring in your push on Truey.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Did I play MHA? Did I die early? How?

You survived until endgame. You voted for a villager.

 

[Lawpy]

I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I do think that being your first line of argument tracks more with a wolf than a village entry My confidence in the woxy bloc is Primarily that none of them caved and jumped on my true push which seems like a pretty solid way to get at least a woxy saving tie and at best a double misyeet on true then me as a .
perfectly reasonable wolf to take the fall for the true misyeet

Also btw I entered focusing on the D1 votes and trying to get the sense of reasons for wolfreading vissy:

Then the current discussion is actually an extension of my D1 vote progression analyses.

 

[Animal Midwife]

@Lawpy Did you already share your POE?

 

[Lawpy]

@Lawpy Did you already share your POE?

Yes in my responses but i’m currently thinking of fluffy, Cray, genny.

 

[justafluff]

Yes in my responses but i’m currently thinking of fluffy, Cray, genny.

Not Sporty, who's been voting for vissy?

 

[Crayola227]

Night Two Write-Up
View attachment 358668
From his vantage point in Sei'An City, Waka can see Oni Island, looming in the distance. Though the residents of the city are sound asleep, newly freed from a curse, Waka knows they are not necessarily safe. They may be completely oblivious to the danger, but they are at very serious risk.
He senses when the Brush Technique drains out of Amaterasu, just like he'd sensed her temporary triumph in battle. Such is the nature of a back and forth between two deities-- rather, between a deity and a farcical demon with an overinflated ego. The old fox is wily, to be sure, but Waka has faith in Amaterasu. No matter how bleak things seem, how weak she may feel, Waka knows her strength. At least, he hopes he does.
Just to be sure, he plays a quick melody on his flute, hoping the tune will reach Amaterasu and hearten her. Worry not, ma cherie. The darkest hour precedes the dawn.


Dead is @samac, who was Gekigami, VILLAGE Brush Technique #12 (Thunderstorm)

Players
1. @justafluff
3. @Animal Midwife
4. @genny
5. @Crayola227
8. @Viscernable
9. @zuriburi
11. @Truenamer
14. @SportPonies

Banished Forever
2. @WorthlessOxygen, WOLF Brush Technique (Iceblast)
6. @Zenge142, VILLAGE Brush Technique (Greensprout)
7. @WildZoo, VILLAGE Brush Technique (Crescent)
12. @samac, VILLAGE Brush Technique (Thunderstorm)

Kinda disappointed that the wolves are making such obvs NK choices, but I also understand you gotta so what you gotta do. Given my own participation in the Zenge D1 yeet, I guess I don't have room to talk. Just a major bummer I guess.

OTOH, maybe it's just time for people to up their sketch thread presence?????

 

[SportPonies]

Also btw I entered focusing on the D1 votes and trying to get the sense of reasons for wolfreading vissy:

Then the current discussion is actually an extension of my D1 vote progression analyses.

why are you so focused on why people were wolfreading Vis?

 

[SportPonies]

@Lawpy how do you feel about AM?

 

[Crayola227]

Okay actually bothered by this. This is why didn't want to vote for weagle last game.

Samac, I switched to WOxy early yesterday, did a full ISO of every single one of his posts, and repeatedly defended that read.

Do you genuinely believe that I have gone from a strict no busting stance to driving into a wall at 90 mph with WOxy duct taped to the front of the bus?

I don't know, this is fine as an argument and I'm not trying to push you in specific, but this why I just don't do a lot with bussing meta analysis. Because people wolf infrequently enough and the permutations of the pack make up (who is partnered with who) and everything else going on, and it could certainly be bias that I don't recognize the games won because ppl were properly cleared taking non-bussing into account, I more remember the games lost because of improper clears. This is mountainous so it doesn't apply, but if it weren't I would be sure to make sure that no one ever forgets Shorty's 3P win in that one game. The bad call was made on the basis that Shorty couldn't be wolf because she killed wolves. Which while technically correct, overlooked her being non-wolf scum.

Anyway, I take your point here, but I don't find it super compelling "But True doesn't bus, True wouldn't drive the bus 180 mph." I'm not willing to stake games on that kind of thing, I need more. Just as I needed more for WO than a symmetrical reads list.

Thankfully, we have more AI info than that for the both of you it's kinda moot

 

[zuriburi]

And risk throwing themselves under the spotlight? Let’s be real. Truey’s case on Woxy speaks louder and is much more compelling on its own even when factoring in your push on Truey.

I dont think it would be that big of a risk. I was providing so much cover to let someone rationalize a True vote as legitimate villager behavior. And it’s also not a risk without a reward, they had a good chance of saving woxy by flipping, because they would have at least made a tie and that would help the wolf ratio a lot.

 

[SportPonies]

I dont think it would be that big of a risk. I was providing so much cover to let someone rationalize a True vote as legitimate villager behavior. And it’s also not a risk without a reward, they had a good chance of saving woxy by flipping, because they would have at least made a tie and that would help the wolf ratio a lot.

I think you overestimate a wolf's willingness to make a tie in most circumstances.

 

[Animal Midwife]

I think you overestimate a wolf's willingness to make a tie in most circumstances.

Is that why you didn't leave Vis?

 

[zuriburi]

I dont think it would be that big of a risk. I was providing so much cover to let someone rationalize a True vote as legitimate villager behavior. And it’s also not a risk without a reward, they had a good chance of saving woxy by flipping, because they would have at least made a tie and that would help the wolf ratio a lot.

I guess the only member of the woxy train that I could consider a bus would be True, b/c he obviously couldnt flip to join the True train, but part of your rationale for the risk of leaving the woxy vote was the strength of True’s woxy vote defense, which is Something True could have simply not done as a fellow wolf.

 

[SportPonies]

Is that why you didn't leave Vis?

 

[SportPonies]

Why

wait I never got an answer on this @Lawpy

(thank you, Cray)

 

[kaydubs]

Day 3: It Takes Two to Tango Tally

Lawpy (2)- Sporty. zuri
genny ()

2/8

Missing: still more than a lot

Vote closes TOMORROW at 9 p.m. CST/10 p.m. EST (~28.25 hours)

 

[Truenamer]

How did you reach this conclusion from that tally?

Hi, sorry that I missed this earlier.

That proposed pack was basically just knee-jerk vibes. Very little thought went into it, and I don't think that those three make sense as the pack.

 

[SportPonies]

Ugh, I'm sorry. I know I keep saying I'll read (whatever I missed), I just don't have the motivation to exist the last couple days. Making it hard to want to evaluate anything.

 

[Crayola227]

I’m trying to look into D2 but from my D1 view, i think we should think about fluffy because her vote on you doesn’t make sense to me.

I mean I'm all for re-evaluating and some good points have been made for fluff (who had been cleared by samac, not sure fluff kills samac last night if she were wolf), but this isn't one of those points

Fluff's vote for AM made perfect sense to me, regardless of my tonal read on AM saying she's village.

In any case, I'm willing to consider other points for a wolf fluff, but this just isn't one of them I find compelling.

 

[justafluff]

I’m trying to look into D2 but from my D1 view, i think we should think about fluffy because her vote on you doesn’t make sense to me.

Im gonna start Okaying you Lawpy

 

[SportPonies]

I mean I'm all for re-evaluating and some good points have been made for fluff (who had been cleared by samac, not sure fluff kills samac last night if she were wolf), but this isn't one of those points

Fluff's vote for AM made perfect sense to me, regardless of my tonal read on AM saying she's village.

In any case, I'm willing to consider other points for a wolf fluff, but this just isn't one of them I find compelling.

To clarify, does the bolded mean "I am reading AM village because (Sporty voice) tone"?

 

[Crayola227]

So quick question for everyone. Do you guys think the Woxy wagon is pure and if so why?

Only fluff, true, or AM on that tally could be wolf. AM is not likely, I won't belabor why. Only leaves TN and Fluff. I don't find them super compelling. They just wolfed and not sure their play progresses from what it was last game to this game like this. But if we are going to seriously consider it wasn't pure these are the players to look at. Even in my paranoid world, my tingles from them are not what the tingles are from sporty, genny, visc/lawp, zuri, to this point.

If we go back to my old thought process of every person is in the POE, those two just take a backseat (are lower in wolfiness) than the 4 other people I just listed.

But I need to get caught up and if possible maybe look back over things.

 

[SportPonies]

I guess I'm skeptical that wolves would let O2 go down without someone jumping on the vote, but I haven't done my own analysis of who was on the vote when, nor do I plan on doing so immediately.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Yeet Sporty

 

[Crayola227]

I would love an answer to this timeline @genny … what were you up to at 5:01am mt (I know this was probably 7 your time…) if you were gonna take the time to jump on an animal midwife post that gave an opportunity to start a fluff train, why not peruse samac’s dying words and drop a couple of reacts or responses?

and lawpy / anyone I’d love to know what you think of this case …

It's not verboten to look at the timing of activities, but I can tell you from experience it can lead to some disappointing misyeets. People are more likely to be on when they are on due to irl constraints, than it is specifically related to closing of day or night. Basically, anyone can be on when day closes (duh we're all hanging around voting) and anyone can be on when night closes

I mean, the mods are on at night close, and we're not going to wolf read them for it...... or are we? Lol

Anyway, lest it seem like defense, what you see from me is that I'm more than happy to discuss anyone and determine someone is wolf. But we need to make valid points, points more likely to catch a wolf than a villager who just happens to be on the thread when they are on the thread. If what we observe isn't really AI, then sure, we can find right wolf wrong reason, the issue with that is it will inevitably lead to misyeets at some point.

Basically, to be a tell, the tell really has to be something more likely to have been done by a wolf than a villager in general, or that player in specific.

I have concerns about genny, but I hesitate or would not pull the trigger because oh hey she was posting or reacting at 5:48 am or whatever it was.

Also even if effective (like looking at people's activities) it doesn't feel very sporting. And that does actually matter to me.

 

[genny]

Yeet Sporty

how do you feel about lawpy?

 

[Animal Midwife]

how do you feel about lawpy?

Very neutral.

 

[potentialsheltervet]

To clarify, does the bolded mean "I am reading AM village because (Sporty voice) tone"?

Isn't everything in a Sporty voice if voiced by Sporty?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Isn't everything in a Sporty voice if voiced by Sporty?

There was extra reverb on the word since she said it.

 

[Crayola227]

Is LHF = low hanging fruit?

Yes, I'm building a whole analysis methodology around it

 

[Crayola227]

Also not sure if my point is 100% clear, but what I’m saying is that if we assume that night close is triggered by wolf actions (which I think seems the case given that we had an early night close on n1 and 6:49am et seems like a random time for night close), then anyone posting around the time of night close looks suspicious. Them posting while actively not engaging with any of samac’s posts and just trying to get a wagon started on someone I assume to be village looks triply wolfy.

Eh, I've seen it that wolves get in their actions at say, 12 am and mods don't see it (are asleep) and then it closes whenever they get up in the am (so earlier than deadline) or they even see it when they get up (say 4 am) but they don't close early despite that. This is why I'm saying it's difficult to use the timing of a player being on and the time of night close to know when actions were put into wolf chat. Because you have two independent things that occur, the actions by the wolves and the actions by the mods. The wolves' timing doesn't control/force the hand of the mods. The only thing wolves can control, is not how early close is, but how late it is (meaning they can wait to submit delaying when mods can close to closer to deadline).

Besides not being sporting it's not terribly accurate. The latter is the really meaningful reason not to go there.

 

[Truenamer]

Worried that Lawpy's analysis is feeling like "player subbed in as a wolf who was getting sussed and is scrambling to make up lost ground"

 

[Animal Midwife]

Worried that Lawpy's analysis is feeling like "player subbed in as a wolf who was getting sussed and is scrambling to make up lost ground"

I sure hope bussing isn't on the brain for some reason.

 

[Crayola227]

Also not sure if my point is 100% clear, but what I’m saying is that if we assume that night close is triggered by wolf actions (which I think seems the case given that we had an early night close on n1 and 6:49am et seems like a random time for night close), then anyone posting around the time of night close looks suspicious. Them posting while actively not engaging with any of samac’s posts and just trying to get a wagon started on someone I assume to be village looks triply wolfy.

To be clear, sometimes the time of close being 6:49 am is that just happens to be when a mod finishes coffee and does it.

Listen, the only way I see night close is if I stayed up all night. Lots of wolves put in actions before going to bed, so there's no way to miss deadline. Some will submit and then ask mods NOT to close early, because if something happens on thread overnight they want the option to change last min am, assuming a wolf thinks there's a chance one is awake to do such a thing. Or, the wolves don't want any clues to what is going down so they want close to be when the mods do it for deadline anyway and not have it be when wolves finish in chat.

If you put in actions before bed, like many wolves do, without telling mods not to close early, then night close may just be whenever mods feel like it. I've seen a mod wake up middle of the night bored and close night early. Or they do it when they wake in the am.

I generally assume wolves get actions in, if not finalized and asking for early close, before bed after day close. That's just generally how it goes because that's when a team working after day close can generally talk and get consensus. Sometimes this doesn't happen, sometimes someone says they'll do it in the am before close. But the former is what I've seen most, and makes sense so you have consensus and not missing actions. Wolves can chat and have contingency before yeet close, but most packs I've been in, don't finalize anything and at least check in after the yeet flip. So after yeet close, before bed, is the high point of most wolf activity I've seen.

I don't see genny being on at 6 am and then close particularly a smoking gun because of all this.

 

[Crayola227]

Mods @kaydubs @potentialsheltervet is this kind of argument angleshooting? If so I’m happy to let it go. I feel like anything in the record of the forum posts seems fair game, but I’m new and happy to respect any rules.

I'm not caught up, could be wrong, I want to say it isn't exactly verboten info to consider, but you see peope shut it down because it just isn't a very accurate way to hunt wolves compared to alternatives, besides just not being very sporting imho.

 

[Crayola227]

Why did you quote the flip AM?

 

[Lawpy]

Holy crap too many notifications too fast. Hold pls as i catch up

 

[Animal Midwife]

Why did you quote the flip AM?

In response to my prior post.