Okami WW Game Thread

[Lawpy]

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Worried that Lawpy's analysis is feeling like "player subbed in as a wolf who was getting sussed and is scrambling to make up lost ground"

Explain warmly.

 

[Crayola227]

but my technique is #11. And there are 12 players.

Ah, I see what is up. Eh, not sure because we have no way of knowing without mass claim if the numbers in front of our mod PMs were RNG'd for alignment or not, and chance has it that WO was #3.

For example, it could be like a 2 person pack, WO was #3, and the other wolf is some other number. It doesn't have to be consecutive, like numbers 1-3 were wolves.

 

[Crayola227]

Ok I’ll let it go. Sorry y’all. I get super obsessed with timestamps.

All good. We do use timestamps and they can be useful, so it's not a bad thing to hone. You'll just learn where it is AI and where it isn't, like anything else. I would encourage you to continue to be mindful of timing in WW.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Ah, I see what is up. Eh, not sure because we have no way of knowing without mass claim if the numbers in front of our mod PMs were RNG'd for alignment or not, and chance has it that WO was #3.

For example, it could be like a 2 person pack, WO was #3, and the other wolf is some other number. It doesn't have to be consecutive, like numbers 1-3 were wolves.

I wouldn't want a massclaim anyway. They're the only thing more depressing than affilation seers (if there are no fakeclaims).

 

[Lawpy]

I don’t understand Sporty’s D1 vote on WZ, but vissy was pretty much slammed in D2 over the EOD events of D1. I don’t agree with that vote obviously but as I mentioned earlier a few times, I myself came into conclusions opposite to vissy’s repeatedly so I can’t really say the rationale for that vote is bad. It just sucks for me.

Not Sporty, who's been voting for vissy?

Sporty’s in my neutrals. I don’t automatically wolfread people who voted and/or wolfread vissy.

 

[SportPonies]

Sporty’s in my neutrals. I don’t automatically wolfread people who voted and/or wolfread vissy.

yeah that just feels shady.

 

[Crayola227]

Okay. What reasons do you have for everyone else to be clear that bussing is your first thought?

For once I am on the same page as AM in analysis with bussing

 

[Crayola227]

But Cray waffled on and off WOxy on D1. I'm inexperienced, but Im under the assumption that bussing is a decision that's made when there is no alternative. There's worse evidence for Vis/ you or Sporty voting off wagon than going after potential bussers.

The idea that I would waffle when bussing a wolf.... as a wolf, if I am going to vote a wolf in danger, I'm going to stick hard. I would need to be able to very well justify hopping off. Anything less, getting on and getting off in a sketch manner, only serves to out both wolves eventually. It calls attention to myself I didn't need. Now, you could say that I did it for the WIFOM, and sure, I love WIFOM, but I can't see myself going that far out of my way to get that kind of attention. There is literally nothing sketchier than voting a wolf and then hopping off when it gets traction.

I don't know that I've ever waffled when bussing a pack mate. First time for everything, I guess.

The one thing I think is true of my wolf meta, is that I work hard to justify vote movement, this should be doubly true when it involves a pack mate.

 

[Lawpy]

why are you so focused on why people were wolfreading Vis?

Because vissy was a major point of discussion in N1/D2 and i wanted to know why. Then sadly when I read the posts and followed the vote progressions, i landed in very different conclusions from vissy’s points. So it feels like just plain old bad sub luck

 

[Crayola227]

But Cray waffled on and off WOxy on D1. I'm inexperienced, but Im under the assumption that bussing is a decision that's made when there is no alternative. There's worse evidence for Vis/ you or Sporty voting off wagon than going after potential bussers.

To be fair, some wolves will not wait until there is no alternative to bus. Some are quicker with the trigger finger in bussing and trying to get out ahead. I don't think I've ever been shown to be one of those wolves.

 

[Crayola227]

Also why aren’t you more suspicious of I don’t know, any of the players that didn’t yeet the wolf… me, sportponies, genny?

It could be because Lawpy sees me as and fluff as more LHF than those players. And one could be his partner if wolfing.

I'm waiting on a read by AM.

 

[Crayola227]

You mean the pressure vote on Woxy above? Engaged

What does engaged mean?

 

[SportPonies]

This is not the kind of play that I’m used to from village!Lawp, so I stand by my Vis read.

 

[SportPonies]

What does engaged mean?

Sometimes if you really like someone, you decide to be together forever….

 

[Crayola227]

Yes. I don't think she ever moved unless I'm misremembering.

I briefly unyeeted WO, not sure if I moved to Zenge or not before getting cold feet and moving back.

 

[Crayola227]

@Animal Midwife these were all Woxy’s posts prior to the Cray pressure vote

What do you make of the possibility of Cray applying pressure on Woxy but as suspicion on Woxy intensified, Cray couldn’t readily back out without throwing herself in the radar?

Remember even though the Woxy wagon disintegrated at the tail end of D1, Woxy was widely viewed to be suspicious.

Who was the person who called out all the salt votes???? And made a huge spectacle? While spectacles are not outside my wolf range, I know that they get me sus, so I am much less likely to throw a fit when threadstate is not already against me in some way.

I knew there was a reason the salt votes bugged me. I kept saying they were lazy and useless and gave wolves something easy to do D1 if villagers overuse them.

Not sure I've ever called out a packmate behaving "badly" on thread like that ever.

 

[Crayola227]

Ironic

What is ironic?

 

[Crayola227]

I know you’re doing your best catching up, and Doing your best, but focusing On this case does feel very wolfy to me. My guess would be that a villager would look at the state of play and start with suspicion on the people who hadn’t caught a wolf: me, genny, sportponies, and you. if we’re assuming 3 wolves, and even if you like me for whatever reason, there’s still sportponies and genny, who seem like pretty obvious suspects from a village!lawpy, especially sportponies who has been pushing visc for a while. But if I’m right and the village bloc consensus is building that includes the woxy train and me for my tryhard behavior, and you’re a wolf, then that’s a pretty dangerous place to be because you know the only suspects left for that village bloc is you, sport and genny. If you’re trying to avoid bussing, that leaves you pretty backed into a corner. In this scenario an elaborate argument for potential bussing inside of the woxy train scans as a more desperate attempt to sow some distrust and dissent within the village consensus as a last ditch attempt to stir up some misyeets within the village. the only other route would be to push for a misyeet outside of the village bloc, either me or sporty, but then when either of us flip village you know you’ll look worse and the remaining suspects would be 2/3 wolf at that point.

Wow, I'm floored by this analysis. Very good.

 

[Crayola227]

You’re misunderstanding my point of ruling out the purity of D2 woxy wagon as focusing exclusively on bussing and attempts to disrupt the bloc. No, the bloc speaks for itself, but let’s not act like Woxy was some very difficult wolf to find who had little to no suspicion. The events of late D1 speak loud and clear that Woxy was in danger. Yes considering the Woxy offwagon voters is also important, but clearing the entire wagon just because they voted a wolf that was already heavily suspected a day earlier is a dangerous move.

The reason why i mention this is because there are many precedents of the same exact mountainous setups where wolves won crushingly simply because village kept clearing wagons. My whole point is: take into account of everything and viewing the WO2 wagon as pure is premature, inaccurate and dangerous

Sure, I'm the first person to say I don't believe in clearing wagons. But I need something more compelling to find the woxy voters more sus than the other players under scrutiny.

There was concerning play from any number of people before that wagon, and reasons to village read the wagon, before the wagon ever occurred. The wagon is just one more piece of info that reinforces a bigger picture. The wagon should be considered for bussers just as a matter of course. But I need to see evidence of wolfiness elsewhere that is greater than "this person voted a wolf."

 

[Crayola227]

Also for the record, wolves have been in village blocs in mountainous games as recently as… a few days ago

Which game?

 

[Lawpy]

To clarify, i’m village reading AM for that Woxy vote movement

@Lawpy how do you feel about AM?

Village pls

 

[Crayola227]

You survived until endgame. You voted for a villager.

Who was wolfing?

 

[Lawpy]

I dont think it would be that big of a risk. I was providing so much cover to let someone rationalize a True vote as legitimate villager behavior. And it’s also not a risk without a reward, they had a good chance of saving woxy by flipping, because they would have at least made a tie and that would help the wolf ratio a lot.

Woxy’s situation was far more condemning than your case on Truey

 

[Truenamer]

I sure hope bussing isn't on the brain for some reason.

On his brain?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Who was wolfing?

dubz

 

[Lawpy]

I guess the only member of the woxy train that I could consider a bus would be True, b/c he obviously couldnt flip to join the True train, but part of your rationale for the risk of leaving the woxy vote was the strength of True’s woxy vote defense, which is Something True could have simply not done as a fellow wolf.

No, I don’t think Truey bussed Woxy.

 

[Lawpy]

wait I never got an answer on this @Lawpy

(thank you, Cray)

That tally shows how Woxy was in danger in D1

 

[Lawpy]

Hi, sorry that I missed this earlier.

That proposed pack was basically just knee-jerk vibes. Very little thought went into it, and I don't think that those three make sense as the pack.

What are you thinking now and why?

 

[Crayola227]

To clarify, does the bolded mean "I am reading AM village because (Sporty voice) tone"?

Not sure what Sporty voice saying tone means exactly

But I am reading AM as village, she sounds extremely village AM to me this game. That data point, independent of the woxy train, but then taken in combination with her yeeting a wolf, is pretty compelling to me. I never say never, but WW is about likelihoods not certainties. I would say 80/20 villager vs wolf, which is probably the highest odds I can imagine giving someone without some mod info or a believable seer/info role claim. It's mountainous so no 3P paranoia

 

[Lawpy]

Fluff's vote for AM made perfect sense to me,

Explain gently

 

[Lawpy]

Im gonna start Okaying you Lawpy

Why pls

 

[Lawpy]

Only fluff, true, or AM on that tally could be wolf. AM is not likely, I won't belabor why. Only leaves TN and Fluff. I don't find them super compelling. They just wolfed and not sure their play progresses from what it was last game to this game like this. But if we are going to seriously consider it wasn't pure these are the players to look at. Even in my paranoid world, my tingles from them are not what the tingles are from sporty, genny, visc/lawp, zuri, to this point.

If we go back to my old thought process of every person is in the POE, those two just take a backseat (are lower in wolfiness) than the 4 other people I just listed.

But I need to get caught up and if possible maybe look back over things.

It’s RNG though?

 

[Crayola227]

I wouldn't want a massclaim anyway. They're the only thing more depressing than affilation seers (if there are no fakeclaims).

Agree. I assume doing so will have been redendered ineffective possibly misleading, or if the mods didn't design for that, ending the game on a whimper.

 

[Lawpy]

Worried that Lawpy's analysis is feeling like "player subbed in as a wolf who was getting sussed and is scrambling to make up lost ground"

I sure hope bussing isn't on the brain for some reason.

I subbed into bad spots many times before. It’s an SDN WW meme at this point. And how is suggesting not to view the Woxy wagon as pure indicative of my scrambling or thinking about bussing?

 

[SportPonies]

Sometimes if you really like someone, you decide to be together forever….

Thank you, @Truenamer, for being the only person who appreciated my joke

 

[Crayola227]

Because vissy was a major point of discussion in N1/D2 and i wanted to know why. Then sadly when I read the posts and followed the vote progressions, i landed in very different conclusions from vissy’s points. So it feels like just plain old bad sub luck

I've never seen you lean so hard on the ole shucks sub luck thing. I've seen you bust ass to come back from worse and show yourself village. This doesn't look very good for you rn.

I'm actually finding your explanation for Vis sus behavior pretty reasonable, but you're sorta killing it for yourself with your far fetched bussing focus and poor me little sub talk. The wolfiest thing about you right now has nothing to do with Vis ironically

If you are village, it might be time to let that stuff go and wolf hunt. Unless, you know.....

 

[Animal Midwife]

I subbed into bad spots many times before. It’s an SDN WW meme at this point. And how is suggesting not to view the Woxy wagon as pure indicative of my scrambling or thinking about bussing?

I guess I don't really understand why Sporty is neutral.

 

[Crayola227]

It could be because Lawpy sees me as and fluff as more LHF than those players. And one could be his partner if wolfing.

I'm waiting on a read by AM.

I see she gave it

 

[SportPonies]

Not sure what Sporty voice saying tone means exactly

But I am reading AM as village, she sounds extremely village AM to me this game. That data point, independent of the woxy train, but then taken in combination with her yeeting a wolf, is pretty compelling to me. I never say never, but WW is about likelihoods not certainties. I would say 80/20 villager vs wolf, which is probably the highest odds I can imagine giving someone without some mod info or a believable seer/info role claim. It's mountainous so no 3P paranoia

Thank you, that answered my question and then some lol

The sporty voice thing is just a joke

 

[Crayola227]

This is not the kind of play that I’m used to from village!Lawp, so I stand by my Vis read.

Agreed

 

[Lawpy]

For once I am on the same page as AM in analysis with bussing

I already expressed my thoughts on the offwagon voters

 

[Crayola227]

dubz

Oh, so village won, and I helped. It hurts me that someone would instead to choose to focus on a single misstep that did not lead to a loss, rather than the way I helped steer that game away from misyeets, as I recall. Feels unnecessarily negative and devaluing of what I contributed that game, to choose to characterize my participation in that way. This feels to me to be characteristic of how some people remember past games, refer to them, and it feels like it is used to continue to justify what feels to me like devaluing my play and contributions in current games.

Edited: to be "I" statements.

 

[Lawpy]

I've never seen you lean so hard on the ole shucks sub luck thing. I've seen you bust ass to come back from worse and show yourself village. This doesn't look very good for you rn.

Did you forget HZD? Or Warriors? Also i have been wolfhunting but i also have to defend

 

[kaydubs]

Day 3: It Takes Two to Tango Tally

Lawpy (2)- Sporty. zuri
genny ()
Sporty (1) - AM

3/8

Missing: less than before

Vote closes TOMORROW at 9 p.m. CST/10 p.m. EST (~26.5 hours)

 

[Lawpy]

your far fetched bussing focus

It’s actually based on my interpretations on the vote movements of D1 and D2. It’s not unrealistic and i don’t know why you are ignoring my post regarding my thoughts on offwagon voters

 

[Lawpy]

If you are village, it might be time to let that stuff go and wolf hunt.

Cray, why are you ignoring my posts containing my thoughts on vote progressions, POEs, offwagon voters etc?

 

[Lawpy]

I guess I don't really understand why Sporty is neutral.

She isn’t pinging me from my read throughs other than the WZ vote from D1 that doesn’t make sense to me.

 

[Crayola227]

Explain gently

The way AM was going after me for my argument that salt votes aren't something I like, that I thought going after noobs that lost a game for salt was lame, all of it. I questioned if she was wolfy. I personally don't think it's wolfy to have considered in that situation that I was reasonable and she wasn't, or that someone else agreed with me, and that it didn't look great for AM the argument she was making with me. However I have more experience with village AM possibly being unreasonable and possibly being unreasonable towards myself in particular, so I didn't find her wolfy ultimately, but I understand how someone on the outside of it might have.

So, I didn't find ultimately find AM wolfy for that despite considering it at the time, but I understand why someone else might have seen that interaction as w/v, and for once not reading me as wolf in the exchange.

Maybe it takes someone who disagrees with AM to understand someone else doing so as well, and to not see that as wolfy.

Edited: to be more clear

 

[Animal Midwife]

She isn’t pinging me from my read throughs other than the WZ vote from D1 that doesn’t make sense to me.

What do you find villagey about her?

 

[Crayola227]

It’s RNG though?

Yes, it is RNG, which is why I referenced that I'm not sure the wolf play with the two of them a second time right away with no other games in between building experience would lead to this far of development of wolf play that fast. Because making an argument to statistics makes no sense. Making an argument about experience and progression of play evolution does.