Question 1: What are my realistic expectations in matching into Ortho residency?
I"m sure that by now you have seen the 2009 Charting Outcomes document. If not here is the link:
https://www.aamc.org/students/download/62400/data/chartingoutcomes.pdf. That document is a much more reliable source of what your chances are. With that being said, while charting outcomes says that you need about 13+ interviews to have a 95% chance of matching, I know a couple of folks who only got 6 interviews and matched.
Having the #s will get you the interviews. But actually matching is a much more complex issue. (Now take this with a grain of salt until I actually match next week, lol). From my away rotations and interviews I felt that being a regular guy, who is great to work with, a very hard worker, and not annoying, or cocky goes a long way to helping you to match. If you don't have the #s to get a bunch of interviews (which may be your case), then your away rotations will be key. First you need to chose away rotations that will maximize your success, and then when you get there, you need to blow it out the water.
So with that said, I would research what programs you might be interested in. For me, it was all about location. I felt that for the # of hours I would be working, I wanted to be close to my family and my wife's family. So I started looking at places near my home. Once you decided which programs you are interested in, then you need to figure out (by talking with residents at your home program, and searching on orthogate, orthopodmatch.com, and SDN) which programs interview ALL OF THEIR ROTATORS. It really hurts bad to spend 1 month at a program and they not offer you an interview. So make sure that you rotate at programs that guarantee rotators an interview. Once you have that list narrowed down, then talk with your home PD or a mentor to see if they have any connections at those programs and if they have any advice about which programs might be best for you. For instance, I was set on Georgetown to do an away until I talked with my PD and he let me know that our schools didn't have good histories with each other in terms of past applicants.
All in all, get advice from people you trust...not folks on SDN, but people you can look in the eye before you make your final decisions.
Question 2: What residency (and thus 4th yr elective) programs would be within my reach to apply for?
Like others said, there really are no safety ortho programs. There are less competitive programs, but even then you may not get interviews there due to regional bias or a flip of the coin. Now I don't know anything about the texas programs ( I did interview at 2 of them and like baylor the most) but besides that I can't advise you on that. With that said I can offer a list of programs that either may favor rotators heavily or may not be ridiculously competitive, but others will probably disagree with my list, just to show you how good most ortho programs are:
1. Wayne State: Just are rebuilding their program after splitting with DMC.
2. UCSF Fresno: brand new program...maybe be easier to get an interview here
3. Howard University
4. Atlanta Medical Center
5. UT Galveston
6. Georgetown: competitive but loves rotators
7. Monmouth Medical Center
8. Hamot
9. NYMC westchestor
10. Henry Ford
11. McLaren
12. Baylor
13. Northwestern: competitive but loves rotators
Like I said, all of these programs are good, and not safeties, but they either may favor rotators more, or may not be crazy competitive. If you are from Dallas, and want to head back there, definitely rotate there, and maybe a program in another region to hopefully increase your chances of matching. Just my .02