Poll: How many actual total Covid cases in the US

[zurned]

Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[GeneralVeers]

It's likely been circulating since mid January, which possibly accounts for the higher than average IFL Illnesses this year versus previous years. Easily the true numbers have been in the millions if 80% of infections are thought to mild or nearly asymptomatic.

 

[deleted109597]

Like, as of 0135am on Sunday CDT?
Yeah, we can assume a half mil

 

[anonperson]

Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).

As of this post, the JHU website indicates ~35,000 cases in US.

I will lean conservative but I assume we are an order of magnitude off.

So ~350,000.

 

[Lawpy]

I'll be surprised if it breaks a million

 

[GeneralVeers]

I'll be surprised if it breaks a million

You are right with lab-confirmed cases, it probably won't. The question was what our estimate was regarding TOTAL cases, which is likely a factor of 10-100 higher than the lab confirmed cases.

 

[turkeyjerky]

I think the Colombia estimate of 11x reported cases is reasonable. So that's about 360k cases right now.

Looking back at the timeline, China had 830 cases when they shut down Wuhan. They ended up w/ 80k (67k in Hubei). If you extrapolate this to our country, we end up w/ 35 million cases. But that was w/ far stricter controls than anything we'll be capable of enforcing.

 

[Birdstrike]

I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.

 

[Lawpy]

You are right with lab-confirmed cases, it probably won't. The question was what our estimate was regarding TOTAL cases, which is likely a factor of 10-100 higher than the lab confirmed cases.

I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.

 

[GeneralVeers]

I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.

One million would be great. At 1% fatality, that's only 10,000 deaths. That would be considered a victory when compared to the doomsday scenarios pushed out be the experts.

 

[thegenius]

You mean at the end of all of this, or right now?

The answer is probably gonna be 25-40x of the current count.

 

[thegenius]

I think the Colombia estimate of 11x reported cases is reasonable. So that's about 360k cases right now.

Looking back at the timeline, China had 830 cases when they shut down Wuhan. They ended up w/ 80k (67k in Hubei). If you extrapolate this to our country, we end up w/ 35 million cases. But that was w/ far stricter controls than anything we'll be capable of enforcing.

Yea I was reading about how China and S Korea kept things under control and they did things that I doubt would work well here in freedom-lovin’ USA

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.

Influenza outbreaks are around 10-20% of the population so I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached that percentage or around 30,000,000 total, although I expect the exponential growth will stop in 4-5 weeks and new cases will continue at lower levels.

 

[TooMuchResearch]

Over 9000!

 

[Birdstrike]

I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.

My prediction: Total US confirmed cases will level off between 250,000 and 750,000, with between 3,000 and 9,000 American deaths, at the end of this COVID-19 pandemic. Our response will prove successful and due to that response, we'll fall far short of the dire predictions of 1.6 million or 2.2 million American deaths.

 

[RustedFox]

Over 9000!

 

[RustedFox]

 

[TooMuchResearch]

Unsupported video, but I have some guesses.

That meme really takes me back.

 

[Money-Moniker]

I'm skeptical of the "large percent mild or asymptomatic" just based on the anecdotes of healthcare workers in heavily affected areas falling sick at a high rate. If this thing was really subclinical most of the time, you'd expect just one or two physicians or nurses in a given facility to fall sick, yet it seems to be really smashing them in Italy.

 

[Old_Mil]

Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).

We're still way behind on the testing and deaths are just ramping up. Unfortunately, I think we're in the early stages of this. I think there are a lot of COVID casualties hidden under the ICD-10 codes "Influenza", "Pneumonia", and "Respiratory Arrest".

 

[Zebra Hunter]

I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.

Times a factor of 6 would be way too low, IMO. I am discharging 95% of these patients without any testing, and most of them almost definitively have it. I am seeing more COVID patients than any other complaint combined as of 3 days ago. The ones that are getting tested are frequently taking up to a week for the test to result. You have to factor in that probably 80% of people that have it probably haven't even gone to seek medical attention, yet. I think the actual number is about 50x what our current number is due to delays in testing, inability to test, and people either not or afraid to seek medical care.

I would say as of today, the likely answer is around 4 million infected. So basically over 1% of the population is likely currently infected or has been infected. That doesn't mean we should be using 4 million as our denominator for CFR given that most of those presumed 4 million are likely early in their disease process.