POLL: What do you think is the ACTUAL case number of Covid in the US

  • Less than 500k

    Votes: 18 20.0%
  • 500-750k

    Votes: 19 21.1%
  • 750k - 1 million

    Votes: 18 20.0%
  • 1-2 million

    Votes: 17 18.9%
  • 2-5 million

    Votes: 9 10.0%
  • Greater than 5 million

    Votes: 9 10.0%

  • Total voters
    90

zurned

Senior Member
15+ Year Member
Apr 27, 2005
298
27
Status
Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).
 

GeneralVeers

Socially Distanced
15+ Year Member
Mar 19, 2005
6,948
5,643
Las Vegas
Status
  1. Attending Physician
It's likely been circulating since mid January, which possibly accounts for the higher than average IFL Illnesses this year versus previous years. Easily the true numbers have been in the millions if 80% of infections are thought to mild or nearly asymptomatic.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
About the Ads

anonperson

10+ Year Member
Jun 26, 2008
780
836
Status
  1. Attending Physician
Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).
As of this post, the JHU website indicates ~35,000 cases in US.

I will lean conservative but I assume we are an order of magnitude off.

So ~350,000.
 

turkeyjerky

10+ Year Member
Sep 27, 2008
2,261
843
Status
  1. Resident [Any Field]
I think the Colombia estimate of 11x reported cases is reasonable. So that's about 360k cases right now.

Looking back at the timeline, China had 830 cases when they shut down Wuhan. They ended up w/ 80k (67k in Hubei). If you extrapolate this to our country, we end up w/ 35 million cases. But that was w/ far stricter controls than anything we'll be capable of enforcing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

Birdstrike

10+ Year Member
Dec 19, 2010
7,853
8,179
Status
I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.
 
Last edited:

GeneralVeers

Socially Distanced
15+ Year Member
Mar 19, 2005
6,948
5,643
Las Vegas
Status
  1. Attending Physician
I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.

One million would be great. At 1% fatality, that's only 10,000 deaths. That would be considered a victory when compared to the doomsday scenarios pushed out be the experts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users

thegenius

Senior Wharf Rat
15+ Year Member
Jul 12, 2004
3,347
2,370
Status
  1. Attending Physician
You mean at the end of all of this, or right now?

The answer is probably gonna be 25-40x of the current count.
 

thegenius

Senior Wharf Rat
15+ Year Member
Jul 12, 2004
3,347
2,370
Status
  1. Attending Physician
I think the Colombia estimate of 11x reported cases is reasonable. So that's about 360k cases right now.

Looking back at the timeline, China had 830 cases when they shut down Wuhan. They ended up w/ 80k (67k in Hubei). If you extrapolate this to our country, we end up w/ 35 million cases. But that was w/ far stricter controls than anything we'll be capable of enforcing.

Yea I was reading about how China and S Korea kept things under control and they did things that I doubt would work well here in freedom-lovin’ USA
 

ace_inhibitor111

7+ Year Member
Mar 10, 2012
650
957
I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.

Influenza outbreaks are around 10-20% of the population so I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached that percentage or around 30,000,000 total, although I expect the exponential growth will stop in 4-5 weeks and new cases will continue at lower levels.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

Birdstrike

10+ Year Member
Dec 19, 2010
7,853
8,179
Status
I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.
My prediction: Total US confirmed cases will level off between 250,000 and 750,000, with between 3,000 and 9,000 American deaths, at the end of this COVID-19 pandemic. Our response will prove successful and due to that response, we'll fall far short of the dire predictions of 1.6 million or 2.2 million American deaths.
 
Last edited:

Money-Moniker

Membership Revoked
Removed
Mar 12, 2020
78
163
Status
  1. Medical Student
I'm skeptical of the "large percent mild or asymptomatic" just based on the anecdotes of healthcare workers in heavily affected areas falling sick at a high rate. If this thing was really subclinical most of the time, you'd expect just one or two physicians or nurses in a given facility to fall sick, yet it seems to be really smashing them in Italy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users

Old_Mil

Senior Member
15+ Year Member
Nov 19, 2004
2,145
663
51
Earth
Status
  1. Attending Physician
Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).

We're still way behind on the testing and deaths are just ramping up. Unfortunately, I think we're in the early stages of this. I think there are a lot of COVID casualties hidden under the ICD-10 codes "Influenza", "Pneumonia", and "Respiratory Arrest".
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

Zebra Hunter

5+ Year Member
Sep 17, 2014
646
1,010
Status
  1. Attending Physician
I say 35,000 (reported) times a factor of 6 = 210,000 cases, and rising. At least that's what they estimated in China (Science), 86 undetected cases for each 14 positive tests, or a factor of 6:1.
Times a factor of 6 would be way too low, IMO. I am discharging 95% of these patients without any testing, and most of them almost definitively have it. I am seeing more COVID patients than any other complaint combined as of 3 days ago. The ones that are getting tested are frequently taking up to a week for the test to result. You have to factor in that probably 80% of people that have it probably haven't even gone to seek medical attention, yet. I think the actual number is about 50x what our current number is due to delays in testing, inability to test, and people either not or afraid to seek medical care.

I would say as of today, the likely answer is around 4 million infected. So basically over 1% of the population is likely currently infected or has been infected. That doesn't mean we should be using 4 million as our denominator for CFR given that most of those presumed 4 million are likely early in their disease process.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users

Your message may be considered spam for the following reasons:

  1. Your new thread title is very short, and likely is unhelpful.
  2. Your reply is very short and likely does not add anything to the thread.
  3. Your reply is very long and likely does not add anything to the thread.
  4. It is very likely that it does not need any further discussion and thus bumping it serves no purpose.
  5. Your message is mostly quotes or spoilers.
  6. Your reply has occurred very quickly after a previous reply and likely does not add anything to the thread.
  7. This thread is locked.
About the Ads