As of this post, the JHU website indicates ~35,000 cases in US.Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).
You are right with lab-confirmed cases, it probably won't. The question was what our estimate was regarding TOTAL cases, which is likely a factor of 10-100 higher than the lab confirmed cases.
I think the Colombia estimate of 11x reported cases is reasonable. So that's about 360k cases right now.
Looking back at the timeline, China had 830 cases when they shut down Wuhan. They ended up w/ 80k (67k in Hubei). If you extrapolate this to our country, we end up w/ 35 million cases. But that was w/ far stricter controls than anything we'll be capable of enforcing.
I guess i'm surprised if the total cases break a million since that seems really high.
My prediction: Total US confirmed cases will level off between 250,000 and 750,000, with between 3,000 and 9,000 American deaths, at the end of this COVID-19 pandemic. Our response will prove successful and due to that response, we'll fall far short of the dire predictions of 1.6 million or 2.2 million American deaths.
Curious what you guys think via quick poll. This includes those who are recovered already, the dead, currently active cases, and those undiagnosed yet (including asymptomatic carriers).
Times a factor of 6 would be way too low, IMO. I am discharging 95% of these patients without any testing, and most of them almost definitively have it. I am seeing more COVID patients than any other complaint combined as of 3 days ago. The ones that are getting tested are frequently taking up to a week for the test to result. You have to factor in that probably 80% of people that have it probably haven't even gone to seek medical attention, yet. I think the actual number is about 50x what our current number is due to delays in testing, inability to test, and people either not or afraid to seek medical care.