Random non-pre-allo and only peripherally related to pre-allo-isms thread

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FrogDoc07 said:
That's correct. Apparently I was wrong in my assumption that most people would want the car over a goat...
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OK, that's what the person said the first time I heard this riddle; however, I don't get how the probability works. Isn't it still 1/2 car?

Stage 1: All doors unknown. 1/3 chance of winning car.
Goat is revealed behind Door 3 but is not replaced so no longer plays a comprehensive factor.

Stage 2: Only two doors, two prizes. Thus, 1/2 chance of winning car.

-------
This problem is exactly like having two black marbles and one red one in a bag.

Draw 1: 1/3 chance of getting red.
You draw a black. Whoops! You do not, however, place it back into the bag.

Draw 2: 1/2 chance of getting red. The previous draw has absolutely nothing to do with the current probability since it is completely removed from the domain.

What am I not getting?
 
Dallenoff said:
OK, that's what the person said the first time I heard this riddle; however, I don't get how the probability works. Isn't it still 1/2 car?

Stage 1: All doors unknown. 1/3 chance of winning car.
Goat is revealed behind Door 3 but is not replaced so no longer plays a comprehensive factor.

Stage 2: Only two doors, two prizes. Thus, 1/2 chance of winning car.

-------
This problem is exactly like having two black marbles and one red one in a bag.

Draw 1: 1/3 chance of getting red.
You draw a black. Whoops! You do not, however, place it back into the bag.

Draw 2: 1/2 chance of getting red. The previous draw has absolutely nothing to do with the current probability since it is completely removed from the domain.

What am I not getting?
Click to expand...

It's not really the same as the marble problem, even though it seems very similar on the surface. You're correct in the previous draw does not affect the probability once only two marbles are left. However, this is parallel to opening one door, seeing that it's a goat, then choosing between the remaining two doors. This is significantly different from the stated problem.

Let's assume that you DO pick a goat for the first choice (even though you don't know it). The host is then required to reveal the location of the other goat. Now, if you make the switch you WILL win the car.
So if you pick a goat door first (2/3 chance), and make the switch, you will win 100% of the time, but if you pick the car first (1/3 chance) and make the switch, you will win 0% of the time.
Therefore, if you use this method every time, you should (statistically) win twice for every one loss.

Note: I did not figure out this problem on my own, and even when i read the explanation it was still hard to grasp.
 
mshheaddoc said:
i'm still loss
Click to expand...

Say your first is pick door #1; there is initially a 1/3 chance that it contains the car. When the host reveals a goat behind another door (#3), the probabiility of the car being behind that door becomes 0. Since you chose door #1 before you had that knowledge, the probability that it contains the car is still 1/3. This means that in order for the total probability to be 1, door #2 must have 2/3 chance of containing the car.

Now think about this (idea borrowed from Wiki):
Say you have a deck of cards strewn out face down on a table. Your goal is to find the ace of spades. You pick a card randomly from the 52, so there is a 1/52 chance that you picked the ace of spades. Now your friend flips over 50 of the remaining 51 cards and none of them are the ace. Does that mean that the card you are holding now has an increased chance of being the ace? No, you randomly picked it from 52 cards, so it still has a 1/52 chance, which means that the remaining face down card on the table has a 51/52 chance of being the card you want.

It is the same concept as before, just with a lot more "doors"
 
YARGH.... where are my interviews? Get in my belly!!!


fatBastard.jpg
 
Severus said:
Oh, but you win a date with me tonight. 😉
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Oh that makes me feel ALOT better. 😉

We're going to be leaving in a little to do some happy hour bizness so if I get drunk I'll start calling you 😀

For the rest of you pre-allo's - get drizzunk tonight and enjoy the start of application season. I require that all take tonight off in celebration of jello wrestling part deux.
 
*puts seed in random number generator*
GOT A 0.658273662394!!!!!! 0.658273662394!!!!
YAY!!!!
WOOHOOO!
OMG!
 
Thanks for explaining the problem Frog. That went over my head at first but it makes sense with your analogy of the deck of cards
 
gujuDoc said:
Thanks for explaining the problem Frog. That went over my head at first but it makes sense with your analogy of the deck of cards
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Yeah no problem. It took me a while to get it even while reading the wiki article.

Funny story. I was in the VW place today to get some stuff done to my car, and the service guy was talking to a lady on the phone. Apparently, her friend told her that something was wrong with the "random multipler" in her car. The service guy had a strange look for a second, and then said "oh yeah, that's next to the flux capacitor." She wasn't too happy about that.

Now to fix my infinite improbability drive...
 
FrogDoc07 said:
Yeah no problem. It took me a while to get it even while reading the wiki article.

Funny story. I was in the VW place today to get some stuff done to my car, and the service guy was talking to a lady on the phone. Apparently, her friend told her that something was wrong with the "random multipler" in her car. The service guy had a strange look for a second, and then said "oh yeah, that's next to the flux capacitor." She wasn't too happy about that.

Now to fix my infinite improbability drive...
Click to expand...

Want a cup of tea and a finite probability machine?
 
Is this thread a license to go crazy?
If so, SDN'ers try this to relax:

Go into a crowded place and shout this at the top of your lungs:

CHOOOOOONANANANANANANA!

Try doing it in a Japanese accent. Glare at others who look at you (if you're in New York, this won't work, as nobody will notice you. Chances are there will be 5 others doing something similar in the subway).

This will also work on your own, but crowded place is better.

Very good! Let's try again, practice makes perfect:
CHOOOOOONANANANANANANA!

Those who embrace this, do post.
 
Ba-bump Bubba Gump Bump!
BubbaGump.jpg


I think it's hilarious how active Pre-Allo is on Friday and Saturday nights. I got home around 2:30 AM after Friday's festivities and people were still freaking out about Harvard secondaries and whatnot.

Do you have the time to listen to me whine
About nothing and everything all at once
I am one of those
Melodramatic fools
Neurotic to the bone no doubt about it
 
Dallenoff said:
Ba-bump Bubba Gump Bump!
BubbaGump.jpg


I think it's hilarious how active Pre-Allo is on Friday and Saturday nights. I got home around 2:30 AM after Friday's festivities and people are still freaking about Harvard secondaries and whatnot.

Do you have the time to listen to me whine
About nothing and everything all at once
I am one of those
Melodramatic fools
Neurotic to the bone no doubt about it
Click to expand...

You in SF?
 
Oh man... Anthropologie has got some GREAT clothes out right now for fall, but this friggin application process is sucking all my funds.

I mean these pants are niiiiiiiiiice.
620177_dpo_frt
 
Severus said:
[zuma meet 1337-speak style post]

Y0, wat 2 hElL is this uSEr n0t3s stuff?

[/end post]
Click to expand...
just look away. it is a way to post user comments, sort of like a wall on facebook. I think it might be switched over to mod use only though. So we can keep track of troublemakers like yourself 😛
 
mshheaddoc said:
oh and sev, what was up with that nature medicine article you mentioned on rSDN.
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Oh, yeah.. that..

Well, Nature Medicine did a profile piece on my PI(s) and the post-doc I work with was sort of... um... mis-quoted for the article. He apparently forgot that "off the record" doesn't ever mean "off the record". We were worried that the **** was going to hit the fan, bt fortunately the tone of the article was sort of playful so it kind of fit in.


I can PM you it if you want to read it...
 
mshheaddoc said:
😛 Neither have I. That was months ago. 😛 ok maybe like 2 or 3.
Click to expand...


Okay... okay.. I'll let it slide. 😎

Hey, I never did find out what happened in front of my apartment. One of the guys at the Polka party said that there was a fight, but I never saw evidence of that.


Oh, and the text message worked. The Yankees... they finally won. :laugh:
 
Time to induce!!!!

I'm like the lab Martha Stewart.

"Add IPTG 1:1000 and induce for 3 hours."

*fast forward*


"And there you have it... MBP-fused ______. It's a good thing."
 
About time to attend my 5th wedding of the summer. Ridiculous. Too much love is in the air.
 
I just ate, like, three sandwiches with turkey and hot mustard. Life is awesome.

Also, I'm serious about that joke thread - don't you guys think Jack and Will should get together in Pirates of the Caribbean 3? It would be a breakthrough. I'd be into it.
 
dopaminesurge said:
I just ate, like, three sandwiches with turkey and hot mustard. Life is awesome.

Also, I'm serious about that joke thread - don't you guys think Jack and Will should get together in Pirates of the Caribbean 3? It would be a breakthrough.
Click to expand...


Interesting idea. Brokeback meets Pirates. I like it. We may have to discuss this topic during the inaugural meeting of the "Porn and Prejudice" movie night.
 
Severus said:
Interesting idea. Brokeback meets Pirates. I like it. We may have to discuss this topic during the inaugural meeting of the "Porn and Prejudice" movie night.
Click to expand...

Excellent idea.

Apparently I'm at 400 posts. 500 seems so far away. I guess I could devote some day to sitting around a posting. Oh wait.
 
Severus said:
Man, weddings are so boring. I wish more people would just elope.
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The weddings themselves are boring, but the receptions are a lot of fun. And since about 90% of my friends graduated this past May, it's great to have some weddings to bring everybody back together for a little bit.

EDIT: Time to get dressed and go.
 
dopaminesurge said:
Excellent idea.

Apparently I'm at 400 posts. 500 seems so far away. I guess I could devote some day to sitting around a posting. Oh wait.
Click to expand...

Man, it seems like you should have more than 400 posts by now. Get to it girl! 😎
 
Looque said:
The weddings themselves are boring, but the receptions are a lot of fun. And since about 90% of my friends graduated this past May, it's great to have some weddings to bring everybody back together for a little bit.
Click to expand...


I suppose so. None of my friends are really getting married at the moment, so I'm stuck with boring family stuff. 🙄
 
Severus said:
Okay... okay.. I'll let it slide. 😎

Hey, I never did find out what happened in front of my apartment. One of the guys at the Polka party said that there was a fight, but I never saw evidence of that.


Oh, and the text message worked. The Yankees... they finally won. :laugh:
Click to expand...
Well I'm sure there was some KIND of fight but it had to be something else too or a big fight.

:laugh: Polka party.

If you have the article feel free to PM or email me 😀


As for weddings, luckily I don't have a whole bunch of friends 😛
 
My brother just tried to microwave peanut butter. Then, he asked me if it was ok to eat it even though the jar melted into the peanut butter. "But, I'll just scoop it out and eat from the bottom." This coming from the valedictorian.
 
MirrorTodd said:
My brother just tried to microwave peanut butter. Then, he asked me if it was ok to eat it even though the jar melted into the peanut butter. "But, I'll just scoop it out and eat from the bottom." This coming from the valedictorian.
Click to expand...
As a newfound peanut butter lover, this pains me deeply. Such a waste. RIP. 🙁
 
Dallenoff said:
As a newfound peanut butter lover, this pains me deeply. Such a waste. RIP. 🙁
Click to expand...

Dude, don't ever MW PB. PB is best enjoyed on a spoon. yum
 
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