The schools justify creation of new programs by determining that there will be an aging population.
"Employment of optometrists is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations through 2018, in response to the vision care needs of a growing and aging population. Excellent job opportunities are expected. " from BLS.
The more new ODs there are, the more likely it is the patient will visit another OD/newer OD.
You can't get an associate to work for you because he/she will work @ corporate or with an optician due to larger pay. Historically, pp pay has always been less than corporate pay.
The more ODs there are, the higher likelihood that they would start their own practice. This would decrease the value of your practice, in the long run, from a buyers perspective. But yes I agree that you would be able to obtain cheap ODs, but would anyone realistically be willing to work for you when corporate offers better pay?
I don't really know what to say about BLS, but it is far more credible than an anonymous poster. Don't you think!?
The BLS information is based only on demographics (the aging population) not on any sound business principles. My experience, which is limited to 25 years of practice, is that as people age they are more likely to end up in the care of an OMD, not an OD. We can diagnose age related problems, but we can't treat a lot of them (cataracts, diabetic retinopathy, hypertensive retinopathy, to name a few). The other thing that no one seems to consider is that all of our automated equipment has made us a lot more efficient than we used to be. Between automation and delegation we can manage many more patients a day than when I started out. OMDs are also more efficient and can handle greater patient loads.
Also OMD reimbursements from Medicare are lower than in the past, so they need to see more patients. One of the government's plans for reducing the deficit is to reduce Medicare reimbursements by 30% or so. This would make it less lucrative to see older patients, and require more volume for the same revenues.
One of the concerns that is regularly expressed here, which I agree with, is that the average debt level at graduation will keep people from starting their own practices. I made significant sacrifices to start a practice and my debt was insignificant compared to what young ODs have today.
I think current information suggests that most new ODs end up in commercial practice. VSP has data that says most young ODs would prefer to be in their own practice. So it doesn't seem like a stretch to assume that if you don't achieve your ideal practice environment, you may not be happy with your choice of career.