it was data in supportI don't think I get what you're saying. My point is that there are plenty of spots for US seniors and that competition for residency spots is mostly amongst the IMG pool who are left to fight over the spots that the US grads don't fill (because there aren't enough US grads to fill all the spots). I believe that argument is supported by the data.
The IMG match rate is irrelevant to US med students and med schools because, by and large, IMGs do not compete with US grads for residency spots—US grads win almost every time. If more US MD schools opened up, there would be enough residency spots for their graduates, the US MD match rate would remain relatively constant, and the IMG match rate would go down. It is an interesting guess about the hurricanes though, sounds like a good explanation.