gonnif

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I don't think I get what you're saying. My point is that there are plenty of spots for US seniors and that competition for residency spots is mostly amongst the IMG pool who are left to fight over the spots that the US grads don't fill (because there aren't enough US grads to fill all the spots). I believe that argument is supported by the data.

The IMG match rate is irrelevant to US med students and med schools because, by and large, IMGs do not compete with US grads for residency spots—US grads win almost every time. If more US MD schools opened up, there would be enough residency spots for their graduates, the US MD match rate would remain relatively constant, and the IMG match rate would go down. It is an interesting guess about the hurricanes though, sounds like a good explanation.
it was data in support
 
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Maimonides1

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An increase in medical school enrollments will be well received and appreciated step to help to offset the worsening physicians shortages especially now after discovering all the cracks in our health care delivery system after Covid19 pandemic !!
 
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gonnif

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An increase in medical school enrollments will be well received and appreciated step to help to offset the worsening physicians shortages especially now after discovering all the cracks in our health care delivery system after Covid19 pandemic !!
there has been a 30% increase in first year MD seats since 2009, with a larger percent increase in DO seats
 
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Maimonides1

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there has been a 30% increase in first year MD seats since 2009, with a larger percent increase in DO seats

To be exact, the 30% increase occurred between 2002-2019 !

If we get a modest 3% increase this year.., it will help with filling the pipes what we are seeing drained due to health care disruption during the pandemic and beyond..!!
 

cubsfan95

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Contrary to popular belief, if you don't get in initially, the odds are against you getting in EVENTUALLY. A segment of that population that really wants to study medicine goes to St. George's.

I think this site promotes reinvention a bit recklessly. If you ain't got it going in, what makes you think you'll automatically "get it" for next cycle? I wish it were that simple.
 

LizzyM

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Contrary to popular belief, if you don't get in initially, the odds are against you getting in EVENTUALLY. A segment of that population that really wants to study medicine goes to St. George's.

I think this site promotes reinvention a bit recklessly. If you ain't got it going in, what makes you think you'll automatically "get it" for next cycle? I wish it were that simple.

We all know people who got in on the second (or third) try. It doesn't happen magically and it doesn't always happen in the next cycle. Those who are really serious about getting into medical school make a serious assessment of their weaknesses, the aspects of the application that were sub-optimal, and make a plan to address the weakness and improve the aspects of the application that can be improved (earlier submission, better targeting of application to schools). Not every reapplicant is successful in gaining admission but for some it is well worth a second attempt.
 
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cubsfan95

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We all know people who got in on the second (or third) try. It doesn't happen magically and it doesn't always happen in the next cycle. Those who are really serious about getting into medical school make a serious assessment of their weaknesses, the aspects of the application that were sub-optimal, and make a plan to address the weakness and improve the aspects of the application that can be improved (earlier submission, better targeting of application to schools). Not every reapplicant is successful in gaining admission but for some it is well worth a second attempt.

What percentage of applicants apply for three cycles? I don't know but I can assure you the number is very small.
 

Maimonides1

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What percentage of applicants apply for three cycles? I don't know but I can assure you the number is very small.

This is what I wrote about this on May 9th:

- 31,749 applicants did not matriculate last year for all different reasons, almost 60%!
- 32% due to low MCAT scores, 18% low GPA and the rest for other reasons.
- Over 50% of non Matriculants did not apply next cycle or the next!
 

cubsfan95

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This is what I wrote about this on May 9th:

- 31,749 applicants did not matriculate last year for all different reasons, almost 60%!
- 32% due to low MCAT scores, 18% low GPA and the rest for other reasons.
- Over 50% of non Matriculants did not apply next cycle or the next!

I know, it's pretty tough.
 

Maimonides1

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do reapplicants have lower chances second time around due to the stigma associated or because they are simply not competitive? that is, if adcom sees two very similar apps and one is reapp and the other is not, would they simply take the first timer?

Despite possible small dose of innate bias.., the bar is higher for applicants the second time around, in terms:
“ Show us what you got different this time..?!”

The applicant should recognize this early and address these deficiencies in cognizant manner otherwise she/he will not bring anything new to the table the next time.., especially when we draw the comparison with the old app on file and the notes of evaluators!!

Obviously I am excluding out of this huge range of re-applicants: the very qualified late applicants/waitlisted..
all the way to the non qualified weak applicants..!
 

Faha

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This is what I wrote about this on May 9th:

- 31,749 applicants did not matriculate last year for all different reasons, almost 60%!
- 32% due to low MCAT scores, 18% low GPA and the rest for other reasons.
- Over 50% of non Matriculants did not apply next cycle or the next!
How many of those 50% who did not apply in the next 2 cycles matriculated at a DO school or Caribbean ? If they matriculated at either they would no longer have any reason to be in the applicant pool.
 
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Maimonides1

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How many of those 50% who did not apply in the next 2 cycles matriculated at a DO school or Caribbean ? If they matriculated at either they would no longer have any reason to be in the applicant pool.

It’s unclear for MD applicants data without further reports from AAMC..!!
So how about the complicated picture of DO and offshore Matriculants..??
 
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D

deleted804295

Let's make some assumptions.
1) 43% of applicants get in on the first try.
2) 43% of unsuccessful applicants get in on the second try
3) 43% of previously unsuccessful applicants get in on the third try
4) All applicants make 2nd and 3rd attempts if previously unsuccessful.

At the end of 3 attempts per applicant, we'd have 22% of the original pool with no admission. You can play with those assumptions. If some people do not make a 2nd or 3rd attempt, then the proportion who eventually get in will be lower. If the pool of repeat applicants are more likely to be successful than the pool of first time applicants, then the proportion of never successful will be lower.

You can play around with the numbers and assumptions yourself. I'm not sure if anyone has ever looked at the data. AAMC certainly has it.
That's actually a really high acceptance rate. 78 are pretty high odds.

I wish all applicants who didn't get accepted during round 1 tried a second time
 

HopeP

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Without knowing all numbers, common sense suggests that reapplicants acceptance rate has to be lower than first time applicants, otherwise it defeats the purpose of gap year to become a first time applicant.
 
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