Role of rng/luck in getting into t10-20 schools?

[deleted936268]

I've been seeing a lot of 3.9+/52X students with X-factors getting both pre and post-II R'd at schools (sdn and reddit). I know some are probably fake but it got me worrying a bit - how much of getting into a T10-20 is really just luck. Assume a student with 3.9/52X, no red flags, ORM, and an X factor somewhere in research or volunteering or something (an applicant that based on WAMC has a great shot and isn't checkboxing).

Just wanted to hear thoughts really on how much at the end of the day is going to be luck. Maybe personal anecdotes would help understand.

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[chilly_md]

It depends who’s reading your file and how they interpret what you wrote in your app and essays. Chances are great at top schools, probably will get into one but can’t focus on only a few. Nobody has a 100% hit rate when applying to a significant number of schools.

 

[LindaAccepted]

I've been seeing a lot of 3.9+/52X students with X-factors getting both pre and post-II R'd at schools (sdn and reddit). I know some are probably fake but it got me worrying a bit - how much of getting into a T10-20 is really just luck. Assume a student with 3.9/52X, no red flags, ORM, and an X factor somewhere in research or volunteering or something (an applicant that based on WAMC has a great shot and isn't checkboxing).

Just wanted to hear thoughts really on how much at the end of the day is going to be luck. Maybe personal anecdotes would help understand.

Luck plays a role, but how well you present those experiences also counts. Are you drawing lessons learned out of them? Are you revealing compassion and passion, or boxes checked via your application? Do the written material and your interviews demonstrate communications skills? Does your application show why you belong at the top program? or any program? Those qualities don't show up on the lists of qualifications that people post here or on reddit. And they count.

 

[skimm]

3.9+/52x+. No X-factor. Applied to NYU, Duke, Columbia, UCSF, Johns Hopkins, UPenn, Yale, Mayo, WashU, Pitt, Northwestern, Michigan, UChicago, Icahn, Cornell. Pre-II R from all but Columbia, WashU, and Icahn. Acceptances from Columbia and WashU. WL from Icahn.

Absolute crapshoot in my opinion. The only disparity in information received between these school is what they ask in secondaries, and Columbia and WashU's essays were not significantly different than other schools, so I can only assume this came down to how the initial reviewers of my app perceived my PS and essays. Who knows.

Edit: Just want to emphasize these were not the ONLY schools I applied to, just those that arguably fit within "T20."

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

3.9+/52x+. No X-factor. Applied to NYU, Duke, Columbia, UCSF, Johns Hopkins, UPenn, Yale, Mayo, WashU, Pitt, Northwestern, Michigan, UChicago, Icahn, Cornell. Pre-II R from all but Columbia, WashU, and Icahn. Acceptances from Columbia and WashU. WL from Icahn.

Absolute crapshoot in my opinion. The only disparity in information received between these school is what they ask in secondaries, and Columbia and WashU's essays were not significantly different than other schools, so I can only assume this came down to how the initial reviewers of my app perceived my PS and essays. Who knows.

It’s a crapshoot for everyone at that level. Even ones with 4/528. Glad it worked out for you. Med school admissions are totally Brownian random walk.

 

[deleted1065184]

With good stats and ECs, you have a solid shot at any T10/T20, but there is absolutely a bit of luck involved....and that includes things as subjective as who reads your application that day, and what mood they're in at the moment.

I got into some T5-T20 schools, but was rejected by others. There was no rhyme or reason, it seemed. Just cast your net wide and be as complete of an applicant as you can...and remember, there are about 30 T20 schools 😉