I think that most premeds look at a single factor for a single absolute answer or metric, such as GPA and MCAT scores, and do not look at things in a nuanced way to make an informed and intelligent overall judgement including all factors. Cost, loans and debt for medical school are no different in this regard, perhaps even more because few premeds/acceptees have experience in how they work, what the impact will be over time, and generally overwhelmed by the sheer size of the numbers. So let me explain my very crude rule of thumb and how every acceptee can do this for their own proposed loans in 5 minutes.
Each year you get a
new loan, and from the day the school disperses the money until deferment period end (6 months after graduation) you get simple daily interest applied. That is just amount of yearly interest broken down in daily amounts and added up. At the end of the 6 month deferment the interest is capitalized into a new principal (ie becomes the new total loan amount as you essentially borrowed the interest money you now owe). You will have multiple loan sources (stafford, gradplus, direct/private) and may have a few equations per year but I will give you an example with private with $25,000 ($25K) and 6% interest rate as this will represent the
difference in loans. But you can use you the full loans amounts for an estimate if you want. This assumes dispersing in September year 1 and you graduate June year 4 starting repayment September year 4. Hence I have 12 month loan increments (this is a 3 month deferment you can go to 6 months, just easier for this example calculation)
Example: $25,000 tuition difference per year borrowed at 6%
year 1 $25,000 + $6,000 (48 months interest) = $31,000 capitalized
year 2 $25,000 + $4,500 (36 months interest) = $29,500 capitalized
year 3 $25,000 + $3,000 (24 months interest) = $28,000 capitalized
year 4 $25,000 + $1,500 (12 months interest) = $26,500 capitalized
Total loans capitalization 3 months after graduation is
$115,000
So total difference of the tuition would mean $115,000 when you graduate
But what does this mean? If you dont estimate or model what the conditions will be for paying it back, it just be an enormous number.
Lets assume conservatively that you are in primary care which has an current average salary of $195,000. Also remember that your salary will increase as your career goes on but the cost of what you borrowed remains the same. In essence, the cost of borrowing becomes a decreasing percentage of your income and thus becomes "cheaper" to payback as you move forward in time.
Just to give example of what this would cost to pay back over 25 years at 6% interest (see below) would be $740.95 a month or just under $8,900 a year or 4,5% of a current primary care average salary. I think under $10,000 a year in payback cost is nominal in the grand scheme of things, and interests rates are going up (I think this year is around 7%), payback lengths can vary, etc. I use $100,000 difference in 4 years tuition as my rule of thumb in using money as a major factor in deciding on which acceptance to take. I think location, living style, cost of living, needing a car, curriculum style, facilities, etc are all much more important in making your decision
http://www.finaid.org/calculators/scripts/loanpayments.cgi
Loan Balance: $115,000.00
Adjusted Loan Balance: $115,000.00
Loan Interest Rate: 6.00%
Loan Fees: 0.00%
Loan Term: 25 years
Minimum Payment: $50.00
Monthly Loan Payment: $740.95
Number of Payments: 300
Cumulative Payments: $222,282.65
Total Interest Paid: $107,282.65