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Twiggidy said:
It's at the back of my portfolio where I can't seen it. I'll check in on it in 5-10 years where either some one will say "I told you so" or "I'll use it to redo my kitchen. I never expected to get rich of it in a month
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Correct. Very few get lucky in picking individual stocks especially IPO

I suffered 100k of upstart stock (upst) purchased it $360 on the “dip” after it peaked at $400/share. IPO was $40/share. Sold it at $23. Due to interest rates going up in late 2021/early 2022.

The only guaranteed winners are are partners of the company who get restricted stock units. Everything else is a gamble
 
aneftp said:
Correct. Very few get lucky in picking individual stocks especially IPO

I suffered 100k of upstart stock (upst) purchased it $360 on the “dip” after it peaked at $400/share. IPO was $40/share. Sold it at $23. Due to interest rates going up in late 2021/early 2022.

The only guaranteed winners are are partners of the company who get restricted stock units. Everything else is a gamble
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Maybe your just not good at picking stocks. Warren buffet said that most people should buy S&P 500. However, if you are a competent investor and do thorough research, you can beat the S&P 500 by many multiples by picking the right stocks.
 
twospadz said:
Maybe your just not good at picking stocks. Warren buffet said that most people should buy S&P 500. However, if you are a competent investor and do thorough research, you can beat the S&P 500 by many multiples by picking the right stocks.
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It’s the 80/20 rule

Only 20 percent beat the sp500 over the long run.

So 80% of investors are incompetent. The odds are stacked against most investors
 
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twospadz said:
Maybe your just not good at picking stocks. Warren buffet said that most people should buy S&P 500. However, if you are a competent investor and do thorough research, you can beat the S&P 500 by many multiples by picking the right stocks.
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If you (or anyone else) were consistently able to beat the S&P (which already averages a 10% return) you wouldn’t need to practice medicine because you would be so wealthy off your investment returns.
 
I do have to say my finance guy got this one right. Lots of people said don’t buy, etc.
I got 1000 shares the night before the opening at 135$…. He dumped 750 of it the first day…. Quick buck… and is holding 250 for now.

I have to defer to the experts on this one…. Idk what im doing in the market and I’d make myself crazy trying to time it….

Get a good guy or just stick it in index funds. We are doctors, not investment bankers…. Don’t be the surgeon who buys the V tail bonanza thinking he’s a pilot ;-)
 
okayplayer said:
If you (or anyone else) were consistently able to beat the S&P (which already averages a 10% return) you wouldn’t need to practice medicine because you would be so wealthy off your investment returns.
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I was just thinking this. I’m a doctor. If I were good at the stock market then I would not be a doctor, at least not a practicing one.
 
amyl said:
I do have to say my finance guy got this one right. Lots of people said don’t buy, etc.
I got 1000 shares the night before the opening at 135$…. He dumped 750 of it the first day…. Quick buck… and is holding 250 for now.

I have to defer to the experts on this one…. Idk what im doing in the market and I’d make myself crazy trying to time it….

Get a good guy or just stick it in index funds. We are doctors, not investment bankers…. Don’t be the surgeon who buys the V tail bonanza thinking he’s a pilot ;-)
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$150 seems to the the bottom for space x. So ur investor advisor took the easy profit at $160 at $135 IPO pricing.

18k easy cash for u

Very few people can make 18k easy cash doing.

Scary thing is these I bakers make 10-1000x easy cash are many ipo.
 
cittykat said:
And many “experts” make a nice living losing money for their clients.

ARKK vs. VOO Total Return Stock Chart (Dividends Reinvested) | Total Real Returns

Total return chart of ARKK vs. VOO with dividends reinvested.
totalrealreturns.com totalrealreturns.com
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Change the starting point a little:

portfolioslab.com

ARKK vs SPY: Performance Charts & Full Comparison

Compare ARKK vs SPY performance side-by-side. 1Y return: 8.17% vs 17.23%. Interactive charts, historical returns & key metrics.
portfolioslab.com portfolioslab.com

Be careful. I had 10 shares of ARKK sitting on the front seat of my car. Somebody broken in and left another 50.
 
Twiggidy said:
I was just thinking this. I’m a doctor. If I were good at the stock market then I would not be a doctor, at least not a practicing one.
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if anyone could beat the S&P by "many multiples" they should a billionaire. Alas the world is full of rich people that beat the market for a period of time and then thought they could continue to do so and lost a fortune.
 
Mman said:
if anyone could beat the S&P by "many multiples" they should a billionaire. Alas the world is full of rich people that beat the market for a period of time and then thought they could continue to do so and lost a fortune.
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It's a testament to how incredibly seductive the idea is, that so many otherwise smart and successful people think they can do it.

Throw in an amazing multi-decade bull market in which everybody has made money regardless of strategy, and there's a huge pool of people who've never seen real loss, and think they've been successful investors because they're smart.
 
pgg said:
It's a testament to how incredibly seductive the idea is, that so many otherwise smart and successful people think they can do it.

Throw in an amazing multi-decade bull market in which everybody has made money regardless of strategy, and there's a huge pool of people who've never seen real loss, and think they've been successful investors because they're smart.
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Doctors on the whole tend to be terrible at investing. It's probably because we are otherwise so intelligent that we overestimate our investment ability. But we are also used to evaluating scientific literature so it is somewhat depressing that we can't digest the proven fact that passive low cost investing is better long term.
 
Mman said:
Doctors on the whole tend to be terrible at investing. It's probably because we are otherwise so intelligent that we overestimate our investment ability. But we are also used to evaluating scientific literature so it is somewhat depressing that we can't digest the proven fact that passive low cost investing is better long term.
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I agree. I wonder why that is. Could it be that doctors biggest attribute is good memorization? I don’t think you need to be smarter than average. Everything is algorithm based nowadays. As long as you can memorize signs, symptoms and treatments, you are good enough. Is above average memorization useful in trading? Probably not.
 
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urge said:
I agree. I wonder why that is. Could it be that doctors biggest attribute is good memorization? I don’t think you need to be smarter than average. Everything is algorithm based nowadays. As long as you can memorize signs, symptoms and treatments, you are good enough. Is above average memorization useful in trading? Probably not.
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good amount of disposable income, desperation to GTFO of the grind
 
urge said:
I agree. I wonder why that is. Could it be that doctors biggest attribute is good memorization? I don’t think you need to be smarter than average. Everything is algorithm based nowadays. As long as you can memorize signs, symptoms and treatments, you are good enough. Is above average memorization useful in trading? Probably not.
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I think you need to be smarter than average to get through all the material in a few short years, and good doctors have to be able to think on the fly and improvise - I disagree that in the OR all you have to do is memorize a few things, but possibly in outpatient/clinic settings a chatbot could work through everything. But maybe I’m in denial.

I’ve heard some podcasts beating the drum of AI starting to replace a lot of medicine, and whether going into medicine is a bad idea in this setting, but I haven’t heard any of this in the hospital from actual clinicians. I did hear a random ad from the AMA recently urging people to see doctors so maybe things will start to get weird.
 
ambiturner said:
I think you need to be smarter than average to get through all the material in a few short years, and good doctors have to be able to think on the fly and improvise - I disagree that in the OR all you have to do is memorize a few things, but possibly in outpatient/clinic settings a chatbot could work through everything. But maybe I’m in denial.

I’ve heard some podcasts beating the drum of AI starting to replace a lot of medicine, and whether going into medicine is a bad idea in this setting, but I haven’t heard any of this in the hospital from actual clinicians. I did hear a random ad from the AMA recently urging people to see doctors so maybe things will start to get weird.
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Just remember to oxygenate and perfuse. The rest is commentary.
 
pgg said:
It's a testament to how incredibly seductive the idea is, that so many otherwise smart and successful people think they can do it.

Throw in an amazing multi-decade bull market in which everybody has made money regardless of strategy, and there's a huge pool of people who've never seen real loss, and think they've been successful investors because they're smart.
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I’ve mention is a few times, in various threads with Gabe plotkin and his “mentor” Stephen A Cohen.

Those guys aren’t smart. They are just cheaters who struck it big and even when caught. Get a slap on the wrist. Cohen in particular has cheated with RCA stock and Dell stock.
 
ambiturner said:
I think you need to be smarter than average to get through all the material in a few short years, and good doctors have to be able to think on the fly and improvise - I disagree that in the OR all you have to do is memorize a few things, but possibly in outpatient/clinic settings a chatbot could work through everything. But maybe I’m in denial.

I’ve heard some podcasts beating the drum of AI starting to replace a lot of medicine, and whether going into medicine is a bad idea in this setting, but I haven’t heard any of this in the hospital from actual clinicians. I did hear a random ad from the AMA recently urging people to see doctors so maybe things will start to get weird.
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Our hospital recently adopted a new mission statement to the effect of modernizing care to have the most advanced technology blahblahblah bull**** that basically meant they wanted to replace everyone with AI. I'm also 100% confident nobody who comes up with such a policy would ever actually such a care system to actually be responsible for them if they were sick.
 
I’ll say it. I don’t think a stock trader is “smarter” than any of us physicians. Medical school is hard to get into and also not easy to graduate. I think anyone with the drive to get an MD could have the intellect to be a trader or IB if that was the chosen path. I’m not sure the converse is true.
 
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Twiggidy said:
I’ll say it. I don’t think a stock trader is “smarter” than any of physicians. Medical school is hard to get into and also not easy to graduate. I think anyone with the dispense drive to get an MD could have the intellect to be a trader or IB if that was the chosen path. I’m not sure the converse is true.
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I agree.

They have some advantages:
Money
Time. Physicians are trading while also working full time
Resources ( computers/analysts)

Even with all that, actively managed funds still don't beat passive broad market funds over the long term.
 
ambiturner said:
I think you need to be smarter than average to get through all the material in a few short years
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I believe that part of the intellect is called memory.

And any “decision” that is taken is going down an algorithm. You need to memorize those too.

To me the most clear example is the ASA having to come up with a difficult airway algorithm because the average anesthesiologist couldn’t bail themselves out of problems because they cannot think for themselves.
 
urge said:
To me the most clear example is the ASA having to come up with a difficult airway algorithm because the average anesthesiologist couldn’t bail themselves out of problems because they cannot think for themselves.
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When is the last time anybody has actually thought about or used the difficult airway algorithm? It's just common sense. The algorithm is created by the ASA to be used as a tool for non anesthesiologists. At least that's my opinion about it. Just a formalization of what we all already think about.
 
aneftp said:
I’ve mention is a few times, in various threads with Gabe plotkin and his “mentor” Stephen A Cohen.

Those guys aren’t smart. They are just cheaters who struck it big and even when caught. Get a slap on the wrist. Cohen in particular has cheated with RCA stock and Dell stock.
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Cheating and ruthlessness pay off.
 
Mman said:
When is the last time anybody has actually thought about or used the difficult airway algorithm? It's just common sense. The algorithm is created by the ASA to be used as a tool for non anesthesiologists. At least that's my opinion about it. Just a formalization of what we all already think about.
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I think the idea is that if you're failing, you're probably stressed, and having a well-thought-out rubric takes the thinking out of it when you're stressed and less able to think clearly.
 
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urge said:
I believe that part of the intellect is called memory.

And any “decision” that is taken is going down an algorithm. You need to memorize those too.

To me the most clear example is the ASA having to come up with a difficult airway algorithm because the average anesthesiologist couldn’t bail themselves out of problems because they cannot think for themselves.
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Yes, memory is important to learning fast, but I disagree it’s the only component. In my experience intelligent trainees are more deliberate with their learning, are more likely to master procedures faster, and ultimately finish as better clinicians. Maybe it’s that they use the algorithms faster too.

I guess the ultimate test will be, if there’s a robot that can mask ventilate and do the difficult airway algorithm, would people be comfortable with it doing their anesthesia?

And any discussion of memory in education of course must of course be accompanied by this clip: The Paper Chase 1973
 
cchoukal said:
I think the idea is that if you're failing, you're probably stressed, and having a well-thought-out rubric takes the thinking out of it when you're stressed and less able to think clearly.
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I agree, I've just never pulled it out to look at it during a difficult situation. Nor have I referenced it in my thought process with a difficult airway. I mean we all think about the same things.

--How easy will this patient be to intubate?
--How easy will this patient be to ventilate?
--Can I safely administer meds for amnesia/anesthesia?
--Can I safely administer muscle relaxant?
--Or are we just going awake for this one?

We all think about those things. None of us pulls out the algorithm and looks at it in preop holding. The people who need to look at it are not anesthesiologists.
 
Mman said:
I agree, I've just never pulled it out to look at it during a difficult situation. Nor have I referenced it in my thought process with a difficult airway. I mean we all think about the same things.

--How easy will this patient be to intubate?
--How easy will this patient be to ventilate?
--Can I safely administer meds for amnesia/anesthesia?
--Can I safely administer muscle relaxant?
--Or are we just going awake for this one?

We all think about those things. None of us pulls out the algorithm and looks at it in preop holding. The people who need to look at it are not anesthesiologists.
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Correct, and I think people who ask themselves these five questions, at the top of the algorithm, never end up at the bottom of the algorithm.
 
Mman said:
I agree, I've just never pulled it out to look at it during a difficult situation. Nor have I referenced it in my thought process with a difficult airway. I mean we all think about the same things.

--How easy will this patient be to intubate?
--How easy will this patient be to ventilate?
--Can I safely administer meds for amnesia/anesthesia?
--Can I safely administer muscle relaxant?
--Or are we just going awake for this one?

We all think about those things. None of us pulls out the algorithm and looks at it in preop holding. The people who need to look at it are not anesthesiologists.
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I think it is silly to say I never use it, because I never pull up the algorithm in the OR, when you spent countless hours memorizing it to pass your boards because you know it always gets tested

It has become part of you after the ASA made you memorize it, because they knew the average anesthesiologist couldn't come up with a reasonable decision tree on their own.
 
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urge said:
I think it is silly to say I never use it, because I never pull up the algorithm in the OR, when you spent countless hours memorizing it to pass your boards because you know it always gets tested

It has become part of you after the ASA made you memorize it, because they knew the average anesthesiologist couldn't come up with a reasonable decision tree on their own.
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Well I definitely won’t disagree that there’s a lot of dumb anesthesiologists. Probably less on this board though.

A lot of my neighbors are finance types and I am quite certain we could figure out their jobs. They are pretty good golfers though and I’m not sure I’d be able to keep up with that.
 
Mman said:
Doctors on the whole tend to be terrible at investing. It's probably because we are otherwise so intelligent that we overestimate our investment ability. But we are also used to evaluating scientific literature so it is somewhat depressing that we can't digest the proven fact that passive low cost investing is better long term.
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Going back to when this thread went off course, my point is physicians main attribute is a good memory. Yahoo Finance has memory of all stock prices to the hour on all stocks and it does not make it a good trader. Memory seems to be useless for trading.

I believe a good trader requires good prediction capacity. My experience has been that physicians are pretty bad at this. Thus, I'm not surprised physicians are terrible at investing.

For example, remember when Exparel came out? How many in this forum were saying it would dominate acute pain management, it would get rid of PCAs and regional pumps, and Pacira will be a great investment? These people were in the epicenter of acute pain management and yet still made horrible predictions. Imagine them trying to predict something where they know almost nothing?
 
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urge said:
I think it is silly to say I never use it, because I never pull up the algorithm in the OR, when you spent countless hours memorizing it to pass your boards because you know it always gets tested
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I would be amazed if someone spent more than 5 minutes looking at it to study for their boards. I did not get tested on the difficult airway algorithm on my oral exam. I had some airway situations to deal with, but nothing that you would have found on it.
 
Mman said:
I would be amazed if someone spent more than 5 minutes looking at it to study for their boards. I did not get tested on the difficult airway algorithm on my oral exam. I had some airway situations to deal with, but nothing that you would have found on it.
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I’m pretty sure you looked at that thing way more than 5 min from the moment you were a CA0 up to the day you walked out of your oral board test.
 
urge said:
I’m pretty sure you looked at that thing way more than 5 min from the moment you were a CA0 up to the day you walked out of your oral board test.
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I am not sure if you are serious, but that thing can be memorized in under 90 seconds. I read Miller cover to cover a few times over the course of residency. I certainly didn't stare at a single sheet of paper with an algorithm on it for any extended period of time. I mean once you learn it as a CA1, it's pretty simple and easy to comprehend and not something that requires going back over and over.
 
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Algorithms are meant to keep people from doing things willy nilly. I get reminded of this often in for example Cath lab emergencies when the cardiologist is so focused on floating the Impella that he (and the nurses) forget the basic BACs. The airway algorithm serves the same purpose to not have someone immediately grabbing the knife if there’s a problem or reminding them that LMAs and the knife exist if there’s a real problem. I think we’ve all just gotten better at assessing the situation and improvements in video laryngoscopy has help keep us from getting that far down the algo
 
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cittykat said:
Unless you’re a dumb undergrad 😂


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What an odd article.

Of course a take-home exam will result in people using all available tools to answer questions and verity correctness.

I'd be alarmed if any take-home exam with non-subjective answers wasn't near perfect. The whole point is you have as much time as you want to answer the questions and ensure they're correct.
 
Space X has no competition. I’m just seeing a repeat of history again with Facebook ipo $38 (up to $50 in first days) going down to $19 months later.

Tons of insider with Facebook

I’m sure tons of people waiting for space X to hit hit around $100 to buy in
 
aneftp said:
Space X has no competition. I’m just seeing a repeat of history again with Facebook ipo $38 (up to $50 in first days) going down to $19 months later.
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They have a large lead in reusable orbital rocket boosters.

But they absolutely have competition.

If you think China won't master reuse of Falcon 9 sized boosters in the next few years, you're not paying attention. SpaceX even has commercial competitors that might get there in the next few years.

Blue Origin just blew up a rocket and a launch pad. I'm not real optimistic about their long term chances. They're just too old-spacey. Stoke, Rocket Lab, Relativity might or might not produce viable competitors in that segment of the launch market. Europe isn't even trying for some reason (Ariane 6 is expendable) but there are other state-backed efforts worldwide apart from China.

SpaceX understands this, and it's why they're betting so hard on Starship. Reusable Falcon 9 sized boosters are going China-generic, and sooner than you think.

But there's no guarantee the Starship upper stage will achieve the kind of rapid reuse they envision (and their stock price assumes, even at its current sub-IPO level). It's possible the fully reusable Starship upper stage project will simply fail, leaving SpaceX with just Falcon 9 or possibly Super Heavy boosters + expendable Starship upper stages. I think they'll get at least some reuse out of them, but a fully reusable orbital reentry shield that doesn't need refurbishment or maintenance between flights? That's by far the hardest problem they've ever faced. Even Musk acknowledges this.

I got a lot less optimistic about their fully-reusable, no refurbishment heat shield when they gave up on new tech like stainless steel skin cooled by transpiration and fell back on the same ceramic tile scheme used by the space-shuttle (albeit much improved).

When the AI bubble corrects (or worse, bursts) then xAI is going to be a drag on SpaceX's finances.


aneftp said:
I’m sure tons of people waiting for space X to hit hit around $100 to buy in
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Tons of people go to Vegas every year too. At least they know what the odds are.

As usual, the smart/insider money cashed in on the IPO, extracted a bunch of money from retail investors, and got out. If only anyone could've seen that coming.
 
pgg said:
They have a large lead in reusable orbital rocket boosters.

But they absolutely have competition.

If you think China won't master reuse of Falcon 9 sized boosters in the next few years, you're not paying attention. SpaceX even has commercial competitors that might get there in the next few years.

Blue Origin just blew up a rocket and a launch pad. I'm not real optimistic about their long term chances. They're just too old-spacey. Stoke, Rocket Lab, Relativity might or might not produce viable competitors in that segment of the launch market. Europe isn't even trying for some reason (Ariane 6 is expendable) but there are other state-backed efforts worldwide apart from China.

SpaceX understands this, and it's why they're betting so hard on Starship. Reusable Falcon 9 sized boosters are going China-generic, and sooner than you think.

But there's no guarantee the Starship upper stage will achieve the kind of rapid reuse they envision (and their stock price assumes, even at its current sub-IPO level). It's possible the fully reusable Starship upper stage project will simply fail, leaving SpaceX with just Falcon 9 or possibly Super Heavy boosters + expendable Starship upper stages. I think they'll get at least some reuse out of them, but a fully reusable orbital reentry shield that doesn't need refurbishment or maintenance between flights? That's by far the hardest problem they've ever faced. Even Musk acknowledges this.

I got a lot less optimistic about their fully-reusable, no refurbishment heat shield when they gave up on new tech like stainless steel skin cooled by transpiration and fell back on the same ceramic tile scheme used by the space-shuttle (albeit much improved).

When the AI bubble corrects (or worse, bursts) then xAI is going to be a drag on SpaceX's finances.




Tons of people go to Vegas every year too. At least they know what the odds are.

As usual, the smart/insider money cashed in on the IPO, extracted a bunch of money from retail investors, and got out. If only anyone could've seen that coming.
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Not even sure but most insiders cant even start to sell till early aug and only limited amounts. Expecting sub 100 and a gen market dip before halloween
 
SpaceX will make money. I have a strong faith in American crony capitalism.

Not the stock I would personally hold long-term, but it’s perfect for short-term trading with its volatility (much like Tesla). Buying it at $100 doesn’t seem unreasonable IMO.
 
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