You are right, and I realize I wasnt specific in my post - the stats I was referring to was specifically for ortho specialty in this case.
The 90% match rate was in reference to ortho programs at an ivy league. From an upperclassman, the statistics were the previous year, 20 out of 22 who applied matched into ortho residencies. The year before that, there was a 100% match with all 22 students matching into ortho. This was in contrast to my state school, which matches none or one every year out of 5 to 8 people who apply.
If you know someone from your program from your year or previous years that was in the bottom half of the class like you speak of, and matched into an ortho residency, then yes prove me wrong and I'll happily admit I am wrong. But the percentage I see from students who are interested in ortho APPLY and match at ivys vs the percentages of students that are interested in ortho, apply and match at my state are drastically different. And I haven't heard a convincing argument that explains that discrepancy.
And I dont disagree about loans - they suck, period. It comes back to bite you 15 years from now. Still, it's justifiable for those who want every opportunity they can get to match into their specialty of choice.