stay liquid

[IlDestriero]

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Someone just today on the radio was commenting on how the economy has "mostly recovered" and how that was reflected in the jobs data. I don't remember the details, but I did chuckle out loud in the car. Thanks NPR.
I feel better already.

 

[deleted126335]

doze, i'm not responding specifically to you, but rather making a general point along the lines of what Narc said.

here's a chart of the S&P500 index going back 5 years.

if you're not a trader, "buy and hold" is for fools. history is clearly telling us this. times have changed.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SPX:IND

if memory serves me, going back 10 years would be even more telling.

cf

The market is not just the Dow or S & P 500. Too many Americans own a bunch of US Large Cap stocks or Large cap funds and think that they are diversified. Those who owned a globally diversified value and small tilted portfolio and REITs did just fine during the past decade 🙂. There are passive strategies other than S & P 500 index funds. It requires no market timing, just patience and the discipline to rebalance. I grant you that I had to grit my teeth during the late 90s as everyone around me exceeded my returns.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/176542-the-lost-decade-not-for-some-asset-classes

 

[deleted126335]

The economy is an absolute disaster in shambles. The spend-your-way-to-prosperity policies presently in place are something a special ed class in economics might come up with as a solution to our problems. Obamanomics is one of the greatest con jobs ever pulled over on a society in the history of the planet. The consequences will be nothing short of disastrous.

Like the above poster stated, I hate to give advice and won't. I will say I have nothing long in the market and see only 2 reasons for market gains: technical bounces, and monetary inflation. I see no reason for gains in real terms. Just my opinion. I'm sticking with the Narc 6F Survival Plan.

That will kill an ultra safe portfolio (Cash heavy) Monetary inflation may very well expand the value of equities. Not saying it will, I just don't know. That is why I do not market time, Maintain my equity allocation & keep my fixed income very short and very safe. With the exception of TIPS which I don't currently own.

 

[cfdavid]

The market is not just the Dow or S & P 500. Too many Americans own a bunch of US Large Cap stocks or Large cap funds and think that they are diversified. Those who owned a globally diversified value and small tilted portfolio and REITs did just fine during the past decade 🙂. There are passive strategies other than S & P 500 index funds. It requires no market timing, just patience and the discipline to rebalance. I grant you that I had to grit my teeth during the late 90s as everyone around me exceeded my returns.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/176542-the-lost-decade-not-for-some-asset-classes

I agree with what you are saying. But, one must be a sophisticated investor in order to diversify to such an extent (or have access to such a wide array of funds, ADR's, foreign exchanges, ETF's, options, currency's etc. etc.) which is WAY more than the average Joe has access to in his 401k which includes MAYBE a foreign stock fund, but that's about it.

I also agree that it's very difficult (if not close to impossible)to time markets unless one has significant insider information.

I think, however, that folks are fed up with the corruption they see around the world, and particularly in big banking, often here in the U.S (the list is endless). You have "front running" with sophisticated algorithms being acknowledged by the likes of Goldman Sachs, and people are increasingly unwilling to play a "losers game". Like the casino. Never bet against the house, at least not for long.....

People are also looking at history and thinking that if can happen to Germany (which is NOT Zimbabwe) in the 20's-30's, then it CAN happen in the U.S. w/r/t hyperinflation. I do feel we're a ways off from that, but the situation in the U.S. is getting very precarious and thus I advocate extreme caution.

That being said, for the sophisticated investor, whom has the ability to be very nimble, there will always be areas of RELATIVE opportunities as well as safe havens such as gold, which right or wrong, people are begining to flock to again. And they are doing so for FUNDAMENTAL reasons. That reason is that fiat currency is being seen, more and more as unsustainable. If the paper isn't backed by any hard asset (if you don't like gold, then we can back paper with any other valuable commodity which is practical), then maybe it's "faith in it's value" (as you've described the situation with gold) could come into (and is) question.

So, what I (and I believe others) am suggesting, is that this is very much a matter of perspective. Is the current system sustainable?? Economies reliant/dependent on debt, and the ability to inflate away a fiat currency. Is that sustainable. And that is the "new" question which is plaguing larger and larger numbers of investors/people, despite what has been described as media propaganda which is more often than not "reassuring" of the status quo (i.e. they have some skin in the game). IS the system sustainable?

cf

 

[phospho]

BUMP!

bought 300 shares of BP @ $27 (almost their 52 week low) on 6/25. As of today it's $38.92 a share. I'm expecting BP to go drastically up tomorrow, then start to level off by Monday, so I'm going to sell them at about 4.20 pm tomorrow, just before the market closes. Since the oil well is now closed, I don't think the news will get any better - in fact, it will only get worse at this point, unless I decide to stay long term. But that would have to be at least a few months till they regain momentum ($60 a share). Will be expecting to have made 4K in these two months. Yes, not a lot of money, but I'm a medical student, so that's my pocket money for atleast the next 6 months.

I'm going to keep the 4K, and reinvest all the money. Looking into buying shares of GNBT, AIS, and maybe just maybe SIRI. Depending on my research in the next few hours, I just might also leave a couple grand of BP shares.

Anyone with any badass investments wanna brag?

 

[IlDestriero]

BUMP!

bought 300 shares of BP @ $27 (almost their 52 week low) on 6/25. As of today it's $38.92 a share. I'm expecting BP to go drastically up tomorrow, then start to level off by Monday, so I'm going to sell them at about 4.20 pm tomorrow, just before the market closes. Since the oil well is now closed, I don't think the news will get any better - in fact, it will only get worse at this point, unless I decide to stay long term. But that would have to be at least a few months till they regain momentum ($60 a share). Will be expecting to have made 4K in these two months. Yes, not a lot of money, but I'm a medical student, so that's my pocket money for atleast the next 6 months.

I'm going to keep the 4K, and reinvest all the money. Looking into buying shares of GNBT, AIS, and maybe just maybe SIRI. Depending on my research in the next few hours, I just might also leave a couple grand of BP shares.

Anyone with any badass investments wanna brag?

When the auto makers were all in the toilet, everyone was saying Ford was the only one that could make it. I listened, the stock still tanked. I bought at about 2 and sold at about 8. I figured if it went down, it would recover eventually anyway (minimal risk). It paid for this... 😀

and a bunch of this... 😍

Not crazy bad ass, but good enough for me! Like BP, it's a calculated risk. BP is a little riskier, IMHO, because we could yet see proof of catastrophic damage to the gulf, and the cap could fail. But probably good for a quick killing on the bounce.
Cheers!

 

[Substance]

BUMP!

bought 300 shares of BP @ $27 (almost their 52 week low) on 6/25. As of today it's $38.92 a share. I'm expecting BP to go drastically up tomorrow, then start to level off by Monday, so I'm going to sell them at about 4.20 pm tomorrow, just before the market closes. Since the oil well is now closed, I don't think the news will get any better - in fact, it will only get worse at this point, unless I decide to stay long term. But that would have to be at least a few months till they regain momentum ($60 a share). Will be expecting to have made 4K in these two months. Yes, not a lot of money, but I'm a medical student, so that's my pocket money for atleast the next 6 months.

I'm going to keep the 4K, and reinvest all the money. Looking into buying shares of GNBT, AIS, and maybe just maybe SIRI. Depending on my research in the next few hours, I just might also leave a couple grand of BP shares.

Anyone with any badass investments wanna brag?

Did the same thing regarding BP. Mr. Market can sure be a fickle beast, and delightfully so at that.

I'm going to hold BP - might even buy more. I read their annual report, and they have wonderful financial health. In fact, they're the most profitable oil company on Earth. The fact that they're going for so cheap a price is awesome! I'll give it a while before they rebound, but they will. I'm patient and I cannot time the market because I'm not psychic.

Think about it - how often can you get the most profitable oil company for a P/E of under 5 and a par P/B ratio?

 

[phospho]

When the auto makers were all in the toilet, everyone was saying Ford was the only one that could make it. I listened, the stock still tanked. I bought at about 2 and sold at about 8. I figured if it went down, it would recover eventually anyway (minimal risk). It paid for this... 😀

and a bunch of this... 😍

Not crazy bad ass, but good enough for me! Like BP, it's a calculated risk. BP is a little riskier, IMHO, because we could yet see proof of catastrophic damage to the gulf, and the cap could fail. But probably good for a quick killing on the bounce.
Cheers!

haha, dude, if it paid for that, you're definitely badass

I gotta admit I've been pretty scared about the BP shares. I'm glad I got this lucky. It's been nerve-racking.

 

[phospho]

Think about it - how often can you get the most profitable oil company for a P/E of under 5 and a par P/B ratio?

pretty much never in my experience. I've only been investing for a few years, and I've never seen anything like it.

Since I wrote my last post, I found a nice report and I've been reading it. I'm thinking I might hold. It's been scary hoping for that well to close soon. That's why I wanted to get rid of them.

- might even buy more.

So, you still think they're a good investment even at ~40 bucks a share?

 

[Substance]

pretty much never in my experience. I've only been investing for a few years, and I've never seen anything like it.

Since I wrote my last post, I found a nice report and I've been reading it. I'm thinking I might hold. It's been scary hoping for that well to close soon. That's why I wanted to get rid of them.



So, you still think they're a good investment even at ~40 bucks a share?

I've come to realize that most people are scared to lose rather than daring enough to gain. That's why deals like this go unrealized by the general public. The numbers are just fantastic. They are their own insurer, for chrissakes! Not to mention the public have this "green fear" and are just a bunch of dolts when it comes to anything environmentally unsound.

You have to think about the money in the investment account. If the money were in your hand, and it just burned away, would you care that much? Would you be able to live just fine without it? If so, then go ahead and take risks. It is the same question I ask myself when making a big purchase.

People are reactionary when it comes to investing. Rather than read and understand a company and its health, they take the easy route and try to "time the market" which never works. It's like fat people wanting a pill rather than exercise to lose weight. Ridiculous. For example, back in the big crash that killed Lehman Bros, the Canadian banks went to half price because of this big apocalyptic fear of our current financial system ending. What people didn't realize is that the Canadian banks were as stable as stones and didn't take part in sub-prime anything! Had I money then, I would have made a good amount(100%).

If I buy more I won't make the same gain as I had on the buy at 28, and it'll be much slower. But it will be realized eventually. Remember, it was 60, and the company wasn't much better off.

I consider myself a value investor. That is, I only buy things on sale. There's always a good sale to be had, but it takes hard work to find it. Lots of reading reports - hundred page reports. Most of these go nowhere. It's worse than reading dry internal medicine journals. But it is also more profitable.

 

[phospho]

I've come to realize that most people are scared to lose rather than daring enough to gain. That's why deals like this go unrealized by the general public. The numbers are just fantastic. They are their own insurer, for chrissakes! Not to mention the public have this "green fear" and are just a bunch of dolts when it comes to anything environmentally unsound.

You have to think about the money in the investment account. If the money were in your hand, and it just burned away, would you care that much? Would you be able to live just fine without it? If so, then go ahead and take risks. It is the same question I ask myself when making a big purchase.

People are reactionary when it comes to investing. Rather than read and understand a company and its health, they take the easy route and try to "time the market" which never works. It's like fat people wanting a pill rather than exercise to lose weight. Ridiculous. For example, back in the big crash that killed Lehman Bros, the Canadian banks went to half price because of this big apocalyptic fear of our current financial system ending. What people didn't realize is that the Canadian banks were as stable as stones and didn't take part in sub-prime anything! Had I money then, I would have made a good amount(100%).

If I buy more I won't make the same gain as I had on the buy at 28, and it'll be much slower. But it will be realized eventually. Remember, it was 60, and the company wasn't much better off.

I consider myself a value investor. That is, I only buy things on sale. There's always a good sale to be had, but it takes hard work to find it. Lots of reading reports - hundred page reports. Most of these go nowhere. It's worse than reading dry internal medicine journals. But it is also more profitable.

yup, very true... I laugh everytime I read a news article about whether BP is going bankrupt or not. These articles have been a good thing for us though - they scare everyone away. It's been a good summer for me. Like you said, it's a crap load of reading. But definitely worth it 😀😀

 

[Jet915]

I got in on BofA at 5.90 and some good old Berkshire B shares around 2800 during the doomsday period. I've been on the sidelines lately, slowly selling shares during peaks, waiting for the shoe to drop to buy more...

 

[2win]

When the auto makers were all in the toilet, everyone was saying Ford was the only one that could make it. I listened, the stock still tanked. I bought at about 2 and sold at about 8. I figured if it went down, it would recover eventually anyway (minimal risk). It paid for this... 😀

and a bunch of this... 😍

Not crazy bad ass, but good enough for me! Like BP, it's a calculated risk. BP is a little riskier, IMHO, because we could yet see proof of catastrophic damage to the gulf, and the cap could fail. But probably good for a quick killing on the bounce.
Cheers!

I SAW THE BAR!!!!!!
I AM GONNA HUNT YOU BROTHER....
2win

 

[IlDestriero]

I SAW THE BAR!!!!!!
I AM GONNA HUNT YOU BROTHER....
2win

I've got twice as much now. I went on a little buying binge and ordered some nice stuff. I have to say my tastes have changed over time. I like the peated whiskys more and more. I used to be a big Highland/Speyside fan, still am, just not as much. I love the smoke.
I can spend 50-100 on a bottle of wine and it lasts a night, maybe 2. You spend 50-150 on some great Scotch Whisky and it lasts months. Try storing a dozen open bottles of wine for months. It'll all be going down the drain. I think it's about time for a trip over to visit some distilleries! Maybe next year for the Islay Festival?

 

[sevoflurane]

Looks like today the DJI will drop into the 9000's. Staying liquid was a good idea. How far will we go down this time? 9500? Housing down 27% for July. GDP not so hot. Is recovery even in sight? Might it drop below 9000?

 

[IlDestriero]

Looks like today the DJI will drop into the 9000's. Staying liquid was a good idea. How far will we go down this time? 9500? Housing down 27% for July. GDP not so hot. Is recovery even in sight? Might it drop below 9000?

I was just contemplating this again myself with the release of the summer home sales data. Things are bad even with record low fixed rates. It might be time to pick up a bargain beach rental property. I smell fear. On the upside my buddy the mortgage broker is working 26 hours a day on refis. If you have not considered one, take a look. Apparently the banks are moving $$ again.
Don't forget MaObama recently said he, and his policies, turned the economy around. These mixed messages add to the fear.
audentes fortuna iuvat.

 

[Narcotized]

.

 

[sevoflurane]

That would be because Obama is a) delusion, b) an idiot, c) a liar, d) some combination of or all of the above.

Do not fear the Double Dip. The good news is there is ZERO chance of a double dip. The bad news is this is because we never got out of the first dip.

More good news; there is ZERO chance that the recovery is faultering. The bad news is this is because there never was a recovery to faulter in the first place.

True dat Narco. True dat.

 

[deleted126335]

That would be because Obama is a) delusion, b) an idiot, c) a liar, d) some combination of or all of the above.

Do not fear the Double Dip. The good news is there is ZERO chance of a double dip. The bad news is this is because we never got out of the first dip.

More good news; there is ZERO chance that the recovery is faultering. The bad news is this is because there never was a recovery to faulter in the first place.

The economy is not the stock market. The only people who retained some semblance of savings in Weimar Germany (besides those who stockpiled actual usable stuff), were equity holders of non-financial businesses.

 

[pgg]

I was just contemplating this again myself with the release of the summer home sales data.

I don't understand why anyone was surprised by this. The tax credit expired. Many of the sales during the 'recovery' were just people who moved up planned purchases a few months to get a free handout - or worse people whose finances were borderline and the tax credit made it barely feasible for them to buy at all. Instead of borrowing money from the future to buy stuff today, the government borrowed home sales from the future to pad sales figures today, while encouraging more marginal borrowers to incur more debt.

Which made sales figures look nice for today, except now it's tomorrow, and all we've done is borrow more money.

Same thing with the Cash 4 Clunkers program. Although at least that crazy stunt (borrowing and spending money to deliberately destroy perfectly functional cars?!?) had a glimmer of a silver lining in that it probably slightly reduced fuel consumption.

 

[Narcotized]

I don't understand why anyone was surprised by this. The tax credit expired. Many of the sales during the 'recovery' were just people who moved up planned purchases a few months to get a free handout - or worse people whose finances were borderline and the tax credit made it barely feasible for them to buy at all. Instead of borrowing money from the future to buy stuff today, the government borrowed home sales from the future to pad sales figures today, while encouraging more marginal borrowers to incur more debt.

Which made sales figures look nice for today, except now it's tomorrow, and all we've done is borrow more money.

Same thing with the Cash 4 Clunkers program. Although at least that crazy stunt (borrowing and spending money to deliberately destroy perfectly functional cars?!?) had a glimmer of a silver lining in that it probably slightly reduced fuel consumption.

I'm glad somebody gets it. I wake up everyday and listen to people all the way from the bottom dwellers (the media) to the top (the president) that have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. The one in a thousand I come across that puts words together that actually make sense is kinda refreshing.

 

[2win]

I'm glad somebody gets it. I wake up everyday and listen to people all the way from the bottom dwellers (the media) to the top (the president) that have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. The one in a thousand I come across that puts words together that actually make sense is kinda refreshing.

And I was right...
DOW bellow 10k.
Going lower.
Be careful with your money.
2win

 

[2win]

Still hasn't gotten there yet. S&P 500 at the time of that post was about 1050. Today is about 1070. Market is actually up since that post. Foreign stocks up slightly more. Sticking to my rebalancing thresholds.

Dr.Doze - bellow 10k, going lower.

 

[deleted126335]

Dr.Doze - bellow 10k, going lower.

I certainly hope so. I will be rebalancing all the way down every time I reach a tolerance band in every equity asset class and tax loss flipping all the way down. I don't plan on needing any money that I have in the market for another decade. That's why I have 40% in short ultra safe bonds-To maintain a store of value when price drops present themselves.

For the record, I am not a bull. I just believe Timing the markets have historically been a fool's errand.

Please let us know what you are buying when. Ideally, based on your posts you should be short. Are you?

 

[pgg]

And I was right...
DOW bellow 10k.
Going lower.
Be careful with your money.
2win

Timing is silly and risky.

It's back above 10K today. I'd give it even odds that it hits 10,500 before it goes below 9,500. It's totally irrational and divorced from economic reality, and that 10K number has emotional significance that has no connection with actual facts or data - even you're apparently seduced by it.

Since you started this thread 3 months ago, the market hasn't moved at all, and here you are declaring that you were right about something. If you've made some money jumping in and out of the market, good for you, but again ...

Timing is silly and risky.

 

[2win]

Timing is silly and risky.

It's back above 10K today. I'd give it even odds that it hits 10,500 before it goes below 9,500. It's totally irrational and divorced from economic reality, and that 10K number has emotional significance that has no connection with actual facts or data - even you're apparently seduced by it.

Since you started this thread 3 months ago, the market hasn't moved at all, and here you are declaring that you were right about something. If you've made some money jumping in and out of the market, good for you, but again ...

Timing is silly and risky.

PGG - you fool yourself...
In the 3 months - the return for a short was 10-20 percents.
And actually this jump it is a great opportunity to short again.
Give it few months - maybe less - is heading bellow 7K(dow)
Just charts - not TV clowns.
2win

 

[2win]

I certainly hope so. I will be rebalancing all the way down every time I reach a tolerance band in every equity asset class and tax loss flipping all the way down. I don't plan on needing any money that I have in the market for another decade. That's why I have 40% in short ultra safe bonds-To maintain a store of value when price drops present themselves.

For the record, I am not a bull. I just believe Timing the markets have historically been a fool's errand.

Please let us know what you are buying when. Ideally, based on your posts you should be short. Are you?

You bet that I am short.
I'll give you one to watch.
Read whatever you want about this company.
It is a great one.
Some will say that it is going to "da moon".
CHKP - shorted at 35.50. Number of shares 7000.
I'll buy back at 33.
Profit 17.500.
Or I could cover lower.
Watch it.
2win

 

[pgg]

PGG - you fool yourself...
In the 3 months - the return for a short was 10-20 percents.
And actually this jump it is a great opportunity to short again.
Give it few months - maybe less - is heading bellow 7K(dow)
Just charts - not TV clowns.
2win

Today, August 27th, 2010 the DOW closed at 10,150.65.

On May 21st, 2010, the day you started this thread, the DOW closed at 10,193.39 ...


That's a drop of 0.4% ... I don't know what to tell you. You've been prognosticating doom & gloom in the market, and every so often you bump this thread to declare victory. There's been plenty of volatility, but the index you've been talking about hasn't changed in the last 3 months.

I'm glad you've made some money by buying or shorting individual stocks.


And for the record (as if my many other posts here haven't made my beliefs about the economy crystal clear), I do believe that the DOW is headed down, probably below 7000. But I won't pretend to know when, and I'm certainly not going to place BETS as to when it will happen - which is what timing the market really is.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to bet, it'd be hard call for me to predict where the market will go in the next year. I think the number manipulators, currency printers, and "at least we're not Greece" soothesayers will be able to keep the illusions up and pretenses going for a long time.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the DOW was 11,000 three months from now. The only thing I'm sure of is that it will be volatile.

I can't tell you when the borrow/extend/pray/pretend "strategy" will come crashing down (maybe it'll just sliiiiiiiiide down), but the outcome is not in doubt. 2011? 2020? I don't know.

If you think you know and can convince other people you're right, then write a book and sell it on Glenn Beck's show between the Goldline and Seed Vault commercials. THAT would be a sure bet. 🙂

 

[2win]

I said - "stay liquid" for traders - and we made some cash... so far.
Regarding the DOW predictions - there is no DOUBT ( only death is for sure...) that it will go to 7000.
Certainly I will not let my money to be managed by some "financial advisers".
That's just plain stupid - if you know basic investment.
Glenn Beck - my favorite! How did you guess??? 😉

 

[deleted126335]

And I was right...
DOW bellow 10k.
Going lower.
Be careful with your money.
2win

BUMP.

Sold emerging markets today as they went above a tolerance band. Will stick to my allocation plan. Buy low sell high. Market timing is a fools errand.

 

[cfdavid]

BUMP.

Sold emerging markets today as they went above a tolerance band. Will stick to my allocation plan. Buy low sell high. Market timing is a fools errand.

I agree that market timing is very very difficult if not impossible unless you're an insider.

However, isn't that pretty much what you did? You had some stocks you presumably thought were good investments, but when you saw them rise to a certain point, you bailed out, and took some profits while you could.

BTW, I do think that if one is particularly "dialed in" to a sector, or even a company (i.e. you know it well enough to know how it generally "trades") then you can "time" the market in that you can bail more OR less in advance of any pullbacks. Now calling where the Dow may be in 2 months is quite another thing.

 

[IlDestriero]

I've been looking to move some more $$ out of the dead market into bonds for some time and govt bonds can be a lower risk investment. Maybe not Greece though. Australia and Brazil seem like good risk/reward. Just today there was a story on NPR about the booming Brazilian economy and how it's expected to grow 7% this year. Hint, hint.
For those slow on the uptake, stable emerging economies that are growing, and attracting investors, don't tend to default. I wouldn't bet the farm on 10 yr bonds though.
The US will never default on it's bonds, but look at the yield for US, Japan, and UK vs Aus and Braz.

 

[deleted126335]

I agree that market timing is very very difficult if not impossible unless you're an insider.

However, isn't that pretty much what you did? You had some stocks you presumably thought were good investments, but when you saw them rise to a certain point, you bailed out, and took some profits while you could.

BTW, I do think that if one is particularly "dialed in" to a sector, or even a company (i.e. you know it well enough to know how it generally "trades") then you can "time" the market in that you can bail more OR less in advance of any pullbacks. Now calling where the Dow may be in 2 months is quite another thing.

No it is not what I did. I rebalanced this part of my portfolio back to target. I did not sell emerging markets because I thought that they were due for a correction, or were now overpriced. I trimmed them back because I was now overweighted in them because they have recently outperformed other segments of my portfolio.

 

[2win]

No it is not what I did. I rebalanced this part of my portfolio back to target. I did not sell emerging markets because I thought that they were due for a correction, or were now overpriced. I trimmed them back because I was now overweighted in them because they have recently outperformed other segments of my portfolio.

Do not get caught in this false rally.
There are no fundamentals behind it - just political manipulation.
Stay liquid and wait for the market bottom - if you're not a trader.
We gonna get there - when optimism is at such a high level oin e a bear market is tome to short.
The September really - the biggest one in 71 years - it will fall like e dead fly.
There isn't money in it, there are a lot of gaps.
The really surprised me - and it was a good show.
2win

 

[CyberKnife19]

Can somebody PLEASE explain to me how the Dow is above 11,000?

To quote the great Vince Lombardi, "What the hell is going on out here?"

 

[cfdavid]

Can somebody PLEASE explain to me how the Dow is above 11,000?

To quote the great Vince Lombardi, "What the hell is going on out here?"

I personally believe that fundamentals have long since gone out the window. IMHO, the sooner one realizes this, the better off their investments. What I find super intriguing is that with information exchange being what it is today, the opportunities for recognizing misinformation are actually better than ever.

It can be fun to watch the talking heads in the mainstream business news networks spewing forth their lunacy, once you're on to them.

 

[Coastie]

You bet that I am short.
I'll give you one to watch.
Read whatever you want about this company.
It is a great one.
Some will say that it is going to "da moon".
CHKP - shorted at 35.50. Number of shares 7000.
I'll buy back at 33.
Profit 17.500.
Or I could cover lower.
Watch it.
2win

Dude, how bad did you get owned on CHKP? 38.8 today? 😱

 

[Narcotized]

Can somebody PLEASE explain to me how the Dow is above 11,000?

To quote the great Vince Lombardi, "What the hell is going on out here?"

Massive amounts of money printing leading to anticipated hyperinflation (in other words the DOW isn't going up as much as the perceived value of money is dropping) and/or money printing reloading the asset bubbles. Bottom line, nothing is improving and every effort is being made to ignore the problems and delay and intensify the consequences.

 

[deleted126335]

Massive amounts of money printing leading to anticipated hyperinflation (in other words the DOW isn't going up as much as the perceived value of money is dropping) and/or money printing reloading the asset bubbles. Bottom line, nothing is improving and every effort is being made to ignore the problems and delay and intensify the consequences.

by who? not the folks here. staying liquid (the title of this thread) will kill you in hyperinflation.

 

[pgg]

Dude, how bad did you get owned on CHKP? 38.8 today? 😱

Heh.

It amuses me that people who go on and on about market timing and daytrading, and how much money they're making at it, never seem to post specifics. And when they do, it usually turns out to be an smugly unverifiable retrospective claim of success, or a prospective flop (like this one).

It reminds me of a former co-worker who would make 4 or 5 trips to Vegas each year. We never quit hearing about her $8800 royal flush video poker jackpot. Every other trip, she "broke even" ...

Here we are, 5 months after this prophetic doom thread was started, warning us to stay liquid. The only actual data points we have is that the market is up about 10% on the whole, and our 'stay liquid' guru was either FOS about shorting CHKP in the first place, or had his ass handed to him.

Massive amounts of money printing leading to anticipated hyperinflation (in other words the DOW isn't going up as much as the perceived value of money is dropping) and/or money printing reloading the asset bubbles. Bottom line, nothing is improving and every effort is being made to ignore the problems and delay and intensify the consequences.

My guess is that a large part of the reason the stock market and gold have continued to climb is that people must put their money somewhere and with interest rates so low, stocks may be one of the less unappealing choices.

Most ultra-rich people really don't believe bad (worse) days are coming. They're playing the same game they've always played.

A bunch of Republicans are going to win in November, and I think a lot of people are reading waaaaay too much into what kind of pro-business pro-economy effect that's going to have. Ie, the market is anticipating the end of Obama's ability to do stuff. It wouldn't surprise me if the Dow hit 12000 around/after the elections as the anticipated/recent large Republican victories inspire another wave of superficial confidence.



Finally, I wouldn't feel safe from hyperinflation if all my money was in the stock market. There's no reason a market crash or slow burn can't happen the same time inflation blows up. In fact, this is what one can probably expect.

Between Jan 2000 and Jan 2002, the Argentina stock market lost 2/3 of its value. Real estate crashed and burned then too. Salaries plummeted. Unemployment blew up. When your money is worthless, you're unemployed or underemployed, the bills are due, and you need to repair your car or buy increasingly expensive food, fuel, and clothes ... you have a fire sale with your stocks and property.

Meanwhile, to complement that downward pressure on stock prices, the businesses themselves are going to be struggling - less productive, less profitable, less valuable.

If hyperinflation hits, the stock market isn't going to go endlessly up with it. It isn't going to go up at all. It's going to crater.

 

[IlDestriero]

I'm staying liquid. If hyperinflation comes. I'll start drinking.
(It won't, but inflation will. Especially with the fed starting to monkey around with it.)

 

[Lonestar]

Listen guys!!! GET IN THE GAME !!!!

Its still not too late....the train is about to the leave the station for the next decade.

Have a nice and blessed day.

 

[deleted126335]

If hyperinflation hits, the stock market isn't going to go endlessly up with it. It isn't going to go up at all. It's going to crater.

Not quite. If hyperinflation does hit, the stock market will nominally go up, but not in real terms. The only people in Weimar Germany who preserved some semblance of savings (other than those who stockpiled actual usable stuff) wee equity holders of non financial businesses.

Zimbabwe had the best performing stock market in recent years in nominal terms, but lost out in real terms.

 

[cfdavid]

I'm NOT into stock picking at all. However, I used to trade this one a little bit when methylnaltrexone was in phase III trials/when they were shopping for licensees.

PGNX

Here's their next little project. Seems really cool. Have no idea where this will go, but if it could succeed, can you imagine??

http://www.progenics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=515330


As an aside, what's up with gold?? We're hearing about new liquidity as the "Fed" fights lack of inflation (wow...), as well as currency wars.

My opinion is that this is a bit of profit taking (totally expected), but could there be central bank manipulation as well? We'll probably never know the latter...

 

[cfdavid]

Not quite. If hyperinflation does hit, the stock market will nominally go up, but not in real terms. The only people in Weimar Germany who preserved some semblance of savings (other than those who stockpiled actual usable stuff) wee equity holders of non financial businesses.

Zimbabwe had the best performing stock market in recent years in nominal terms, but lost out in real terms.

Here's a really good commentary on Weimar hyperinflation.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,641758,00.html

 

[IlDestriero]

It is definitely concerning to me that the majority of the stock trades are computer generated algorithmic high frequency trades. They say it creates liquidity, but who really knows what the affect of all these trades are on the market. It's estimated to be 70% of the trades. What happens when the crash comes, or even a significant blip.
I know that they have placed "emergency breaks" into the system, but if there is money to be made, these guys are not just going to turn off their trading computers. They'll surf it to the bottom and make billions while everyone goes broke. There's no doubt in my mind that they have algorithms designed to profit from doomsday scenarios.

 

[sevoflurane]

I'm staying liquid. If hyperinflation comes. I'll start drinking.
(It won't, but inflation will. Especially with the fed starting to monkey around with it.)

You're not messing around... Very liquid.

I've been liquid except for 6k of play money, which I did not diversify. Put it in 2 stocks RIG and WFT. RIG was up 26%, WFT was up 14% from when I bought them (about six months ago). Should have shorted them before the 1/4 report came out. Still up 21% and 7%. WFT took a good hit yesterday.

Gold dropped a bit with the news that China was going to hike interest rates suggesting that China may decrease it's appetite for gold. I’m still a bit skeptical. Would have been nice to go in when it was 1200.

Apple and Google have done extremely well, yet I’m not sure if they are going to continue to grow at such a rapid pace. IPAD and Nano sales were lower than expected. Verizon merger will be good for both companies.


Bank of America is hurting right now (mainly cuz of the media)... if it keeps on dropping and the lawyers/feds don’t chew ‘em up... it may be a buying opportunity.

Although I've been pleasantly surprised by the market over the last couple of weeks, I still think liquid is the way to go. No real long term investments for me, only short term. Maybe some tax-free bonds. But, then again... what do I know... just a new-B over here.

Maybe I’ll try and dump a bit more when we see the DJI fall under 10,000. Dollar-cost averaging if anything.

I have to admit: it's been a ton of fun watching the market fluctuations and making a tiny little bit of $$$. I know things can go the other way..... Sirius xm radio at one time was $7 a share... now it’s $1.3 a share..... Surely hurt a lot XM believers.

 

[sevoflurane]

Amongst many of the other problems with Obama's presidency, if he get's his way, I heard that long term capital gains will be taxed just like short term capital gains... Something like 15% vs 45%... is this right?

 

[deleted126335]

Amongst many of the other problems with Obama's presidency, if he get's his way, I heard that long term capital gains will be taxed just like short term capital gains... Something like 15% vs 45%... is this right?

No. Under current law (might change before Jan 1) as of jan 1, 2011

long term cap gains goes from 15 to 20%
top bracket goes from 35% to 39.6%
Dividend income goes from 15% to your marginal rate (as high as 39.6%)
short term capital gains still gets taxed at your marginal rate which is the current practice, but your marginal rate will be going up (likely if you are an anesthesiologist.)

Additional tax increases scheduled to come on line in future years to pay for Obama care.

 

[deleted126335]

Here's a really good commentary on Weimar hyperinflation.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,641758,00.html

It is a good article, Note what did well: Foreign currencies (foreign stocks and bonds are denominated in foreign currencies unless you hedge), actual usable stuff that people stockpiled (commodities). I suspect that real estate also at least kept up. I also suspect that businesses that made actual necessary stuff (stocks) at least survived. All should be part of a widely diversified portfolio.
Cash holders got wiped out.
N.B. Debtors also did well. Especially those that borrowed to buy land and businesses.