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Here's an exampleLink me to where he cites research on Step 1. His blog from what I saw consists of rehashed NRMP Statistics and that one post where he cherry-picked Step 1 questions to show how ridiculous it was but IMO were still quite valid.
The new NBMEs consistently show 60% correct as passing, and they’re not generally as hard as the real exam.
Reddit.com/r/step1/comments/bjmd91
You can check the Step 1 research yourself. I’ll post random links but a literature search would probably do more good.
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The Predictive Value of General Surgery Application Data for Future Resident Performance
The predictive value of application data for future general surgery resident performance and attrition are poorly understood. We sought to determine w…www.sciencedirect.com
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What predicts surgical internship performance?
Variables associated with postgraduate year 1 (PGY-l) performance in surgical training have not been fully defined.Mean composite PGY-l evaluation sco…www.sciencedirect.com
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United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 Scores Directly Correlate with American Board of Neurological Surgery Scores: A Single-Institution Experience
Neurosurgery residency is becoming an increasingly competitive match. The process of screening and ranking applicants is a multifactorial process that…www.sciencedirect.com
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Correlation of USMLE Step 1 scores with performance on dermatology in-training examinations
Although United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 was not designed to predict resident performance, scores are used to compare resid…www.sciencedirect.com

The Mythology of USMLE Step 1 Scores and Board Certification
There’s a persistent objection to making USMLE Step 1 pass/fail that goes something like this: Dear Sheriff, When you suggest that we should make USMLE Step 1 pass/fail, you overlook one very…

The new NBMEs were rolled out because the old ones were losing their validity due to creep. I would absolutely expect a brand new set of rescaled ones to be down at the other end of the range. They certainly didn't feel easier to me! They were brutal.
Just glancing at the first few of these examples:
Paper #1 showing moderate r=0.4 ABSITE correlation...for a cohort with an average score centered around 214. That makes a lot of sense to me, that chunk of people down in what's currently bottom ~20% are where Step is meant to be functionally useful.
Paper #2 I think you made a mistake including this one, it actually shows there is not significant correlation to Step 1
Paper #3 shows a significant correlation to neursurg written board score but mentions >95% pass rate by 220.
Giving up there for now but I think we both understand where the research sits. Good MCQ exam takers tend to remain that way, but actual outcome differences? The practice of screening and heavily favoring high scores isn't evidence based at all. Find me something that shows a 230 is at risk compared to a 250 and I'll eat my shoes