Stock, the economy and the Fed for 2023

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epidural man said:
You guys talking about China should watch this short video. Opinions would be great.

Click to expand...

He makes valid points, but he speaks with a level of confidence and certainty that I think is unwarranted.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”​


― Yogi Berra
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pgg said:
You've got to remember that of those 1.4B people, a growing fraction are senior citizens who are worth negative economic output. Especially in a culture like China, in which elders are revered and supported by their children, this is a problem. This impending, growing burden on the younger generations is the essence of the One Child ****up.

Especially since younger generations aren't having lots of kids now that the policy has been lifted - like all other countries and cultures that have shifted from agrarian to industrial economies, population naturally grows more slowly as people choose to have fewer kids.

The grand irony of the problem is that China's people are presently choosing to have fewer kids (despite government incentives to have more!) just as they need to have more kids to make up for the enforced low fertility of the past few decades.

And this isn't even the biggest problem. China has. They're ****ed.
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kids providing 'free labor' after work for their aging parents. in the USA, they be in senior homes, or with home health aides, costing billions of dollars. sure the kids life suck bc they lost all their free time. also its seen as a return of effort kind of. because parents give everything to their kids when younger.

on a different subject. if you go to chinatown in nyc, you'll see so many old asians, who only came here for the government benefits. free healthcare, food, cheap shelter etc
 

the best hedge funds on the long run f ar outperforms sp500.

The stellar year for Citadel's flagship fund followed a 26% return in 2021 and decades of strong performance–$1 million invested in Wellington at inception in 1990 would be worth $328 million today, compared with $23 million if it were invested in the S&P 500 Index.
 
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"The top 20 hedge fund firms collectively generated $22.4 billion in profit after fees, according to estimates by LCH Investments, a fund of hedge funds. Citadel’s gain was the largest annual return for a hedge fund manager, surpassing the $15 billion that John Paulson generated in 2007 on his bet against subprime mortgages. This was described as the “greatest trade ever” in a subsequent book of the same name by Gregory Zuckerman.

But it’s a different story outside the industry giants, with hedge funds overall losing $208 billion last year as many managers found themselves on the wrong side of global market turmoil. LCH estimated a return of 3.4% at the top 20 managers — while the rest of funds it studied suffered losses of 8.2%."
 
anbuitachi said:

the best hedge funds on the long run f ar outperforms sp500.

The stellar year for Citadel's flagship fund followed a 26% return in 2021 and decades of strong performance–$1 million invested in Wellington at inception in 1990 would be worth $328 million today, compared with $23 million if it were invested in the S&P 500 Index.
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The best hedge funds cheat.
 
BLADEMDA said:
China will take Taiwan like they did Hong Kong...without firing a shot. I can even see a future US President "handing over" Taiwan just like the British did Hong Kong. China wants Taiwan intact as that grows the wealth of the Chinese as a whole. There is no war for Taiwan because we can't win the war and Taiwan can't defend itself. The US debt is so high and the dollar likely so weak in 10-15 years the Chinese won't even need our permission to take back THEIR Taiwan.

While I do feel sympathy towards those in Taiwan, as a staunch conservative I can't support any American losing his/her life over Taiwan, not today..not ever.
I prefer that US companies move out of China completely into neighboring countries like communist Vietnam. Taiwan is a lost cause even more so than the South in the Civil War. But, that's another post altogether.
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I love you blade, you’re brilliant, but there’s a bit too much certainty here in regards to your analysis. So much can happen. I’m not certain at all that Taiwan is a “lost cause”. Curious comparison to our civil war! I don’t agree, I think if America is going to be a beacon of freedom in the midst of a worldwide resurgence of autocracy, we can’t ditch Taiwan.
 
Dr. Rude said:
He makes valid points, but he speaks with a level of confidence and certainty that I think is unwarranted.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”​


― Yogi Berra
Click to expand...
Yeah, this guy has a history of making ridiculous predictions about China. He says what westerners want to hear, but come on, China is going to collapse in 10 years? Uhh, yeah.
 
anbuitachi said:

the best hedge funds on the long run f ar outperforms sp500.

The stellar year for Citadel's flagship fund followed a 26% return in 2021 and decades of strong performance–$1 million invested in Wellington at inception in 1990 would be worth $328 million today, compared with $23 million if it were invested in the S&P 500 Index.
Click to expand...
Picking a good hedge fund is like picking a “good” lottery ticket.
 
NumTacos said:
Yeah, this guy has a history of making ridiculous predictions about China. He says what westerners want to hear, but come on, China is going to collapse in 10 years? Uhh, yeah.
Click to expand...

China commentators probably say the same thing about America. Racism, crime, gun violence out of control, social issues, income disparities, debt.
 
coffeebythelake said:
China isn't going to take Taiwan by force unless their hand is forced by political maneuvering across the strait. E.g. Taiwan explicitly declaring independence. They are happy with the current rhetoric and laying claim.

I wouldn't say China is in bad shape. The benefit of a one party system is that they can have a defined agenda that stretches decades rather than every 4 years. They have done very well for themselves over the past 30 years and will continue in that trajectory. Thry will have to focus on internal security issues, improving access to economic opportunities for its citizens and reducing the inequalities that exist now. They've already started to push to sustainable energies although they have a long way yet to go.
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China is in poor shape because of demographic factors more than anything. Their population is projected to basically collapse over this century and their worker to dependent ratio is going to be so unfavorable that just keeping things together at home is going to take priority over any external threats come the 2040s. Their single-party structure's major flaw is that it is like a ceramic blade- sharp and efficient but brittle. Blaming external threats, even in an nation of mass propaganda, can only work for so long when things start to crumble from the inside. When this happens there is no other party to blame, and the general mores of China do not allow one to simply take great blame and move on
 
NumTacos said:
I love you blade, you’re brilliant, but there’s a bit too much certainty here in regards to your analysis. So much can happen. I’m not certain at all that Taiwan is a “lost cause”. Curious comparison to our civil war! I don’t agree, I think if America is going to be a beacon of freedom in the midst of a worldwide resurgence of autocracy, we can’t ditch Taiwan.
Click to expand...
Most likely Taiwan will continue on as it has. We can't afford to let Taiwan go, both morally and practically. The former is due to our obligations to uphold democracy and freedom, and the later is due to their control of the advanced chip market required for us to do, well, everything. We simply don't have the capabilities to replace their foundries at this time, and such an effort would likely take the better part of two decades.

My most likely scenario for Taiwan is that China keeps them around as a rallying cry until the mainland political system collapses, at which point Taiwan and Hong Kong will likely be seen as models for how a united China might build a better system after a collapse. This will probably be a brutal period of civil war, which isn't really unexpected, historically, and will more likely than not result in reunification and a change in the overall governmental system rather than a fracturing of the nation. That's all just speculation for whatever archeologists are looking at this post in 100 years though.
 
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Dr. Rude said:
It’s OK because we are the good guys.
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E0JaTX2WUAA14hz.jpg
 
NumTacos said:
Yeah, this guy has a history of making ridiculous predictions about China. He says what westerners want to hear, but come on, China is going to collapse in 10 years? Uhh, yeah.
Click to expand...
I don’t know him or his history.

However, he makes some interesting points.

1. No one is telling Xi Jinping the truth. That has to have deleterious effects.

2. China has a negative population growth AND a very aged population. This has to have deleterious effects.

3. China kicked out all the westerners who know how to make chips. This has to have deleterious effects.

I read a book last year called “

China's Great Wall Of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle. “​


It was fascinating. That author said they have a huge problem looming. They can kick the can down the road for a long time, but each time it grows bigger and heavier.
 
epidural man said:
I don’t know him or his history.

However, he makes some interesting points.

1. No one is telling Xi Jinping the truth. That has to have deleterious effects.

2. China has a negative population growth AND a very aged population. This has to have deleterious effects.

3. China kicked out all the westerners who know how to make chips. This has to have deleterious effects.

I read a book last year called “

China's Great Wall Of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle. “​


It was fascinating. That author said they have a huge problem looming. They can kick the can down the road for a long time, but each time it grows bigger and heavier.
Click to expand...

the amount of crap US/western write about china is humongous. the amount of crap china writes about US is also humongous.

personally, i dont think any of the stuff you mentioned is a big deal.

i think US has as many , if not more problems. But that's just my opinion. we wont know how it will play out until it happens.

i played a lot of games growing up. key to success was always, decent population size, enough land/resources, effcient work.

i see it as China >>> USA in population, even if its decreasing in size. THey have many times the scientists, the engineers, and they WILL catch up IMO. That's why USA feels threatened and have to limit access to high end tech from USA.

Land/resources, USA > china.

Efficiency, China >>> USA. things dont get done in this country. its slow as hell. politicians change every 2-4 years.
 
China is building 400ish additional nuclear power plants the next 10 years to essentially have free energy. US is planning to build…any?

In China, they are limiting the access of tutoring services kids can have because school is so competitive. In the US half the population hasn’t met standards by 12th grade.

TikTok in China is government controlled to show kids science and STEM content. Not the case here.

I dont know if the demographics in China are as much of an issue as people make it out to be. In 10 years, AI and robotics may overcome threats of aging population. At that point, energy and cost of energy will be the limiting resource. See above Re nuclear power.
 
You cool with them putting that nuclear power plant next to your neighborhood? How about next to your kids school? It's all good as long as it doesn't impact you right?
 
chessknt said:
You cool with them putting that nuclear power plant next to your neighborhood? How about next to your kids school? It's all good as long as it doesn't impact you right?
Click to expand...
Yes, I’m cool with free clean energy in my neighborhood and not having to import oil from the Middle East.

How many more wars do we need to fight over energy? How many would’ve been avoided if all nations were energy independent?
 
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agammaglobulin said:
Yes, I’m cool with the free clean energy in my neighborhood and not having to import oil from the Middle East.

How many more wars do we need to fight over energy? How many would’ve been avoided if all nations were energy independent?
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To be fair I agree that it seems like a great idea but I don't see anyone besides Bill Gates promoting this in the USA. The TikTok point is moot, it would be struck down by SCOTUS if we tried to censor anything in this country.
 
chessknt said:
To be fair I agree that it seems like a great idea but I don't see anyone besides Bill Gates promoting this in the USA. The TikTok point is moot, it would be struck down by SCOTUS if we tried to censor anything in this country.
Click to expand...
Yang talked about it all the time. I would bring it up constantly.

Yet you all said he was a horrible candidate. Biden is so much better......
 
Dr. Rude said:
It’s OK because we are the good guys.
Click to expand...
Of course it's OK.

We are the good guys.

Not pointing any fingers at anyone on this thread 🙂 and not leaping on you.

I'm continually exasperated by Americans who endlessly wring their hands over past national sins, and wax philosophical about how criticisms of other nations' modern misdeeds need to be tempered with chest-beating monologues about US/British/western colonial and imperialistic stains on the world.

We are competing with China and other similarly nasty regimes economically, politically, and ideologically. It's not quite a zero sum game, but just about every win in their column is a loss in ours.

I wish people would be less wishy washy and pick a side.
 
epidural man said:
Yang talked about it all the time. I would bring it up constantly.

Yet you all said he was a horrible candidate. Biden is so much better......
Click to expand...
As I recall Yang was a pretty popular candidate amongst people in this forum. We're not the electorate though. 🙂
 
chessknt said:
You cool with them putting that nuclear power plant next to your neighborhood? How about next to your kids school? It's all good as long as it doesn't impact you right?
Click to expand...
Yes, absolutely.

Your kind of NIMBYism got us 50+ years of coal plants instead. Nice work.
 
pgg said:
Yes, absolutely.

Your kind of NIMBYism got us 50+ years of coal plants instead. Nice work.
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I think Chernobyl is more responsible than NIMBYI but it definitely has its place too.

This is the argument that is going to be brought up if there is ever a push to do this. Rich people who control our government dont want nuclear power plants near their homes. But if we want nuclear power the left will want it put in affluent areas too, not just poor neighborhoods. It is going to need a unified approach to the electrical grid, not this hodge podge each state is its own country and can't be subjected to federal regulations attitude we have now. Can you imagine a wealthy suburb agreeing to having a nuclear power plant installed? What about their property values? What about radiation and their kids? It isn't safe because the government said so because we can't trust anything from the government.

SCOTUS is systemically dismembering federal control of environmental standards--what kind of power standards are there going to be for this or is each state entitled to its own nuclear policy as well? Can you imagine a state like TX or FL agreeing to federal standards for conversion to nuclear energy with restrictions against placing plants in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas and stopping coal/oil power? Never going to happen.

Just like healthcare costs the only scenario where anything is going to change is if we have a major crisis. I hope I am wrong but the past 20+ years have consistently shown that almost nothing useful can happen in our system of government.
 
pgg said:
Of course it's OK.

We are the good guys.

Not pointing any fingers at anyone on this thread 🙂 and not leaping on you.

I'm continually exasperated by Americans who endlessly wring their hands over past national sins, and wax philosophical about how criticisms of other nations' modern misdeeds need to be tempered with chest-beating monologues about US/British/western colonial and imperialistic stains on the world.

We are competing with China and other similarly nasty regimes economically, politically, and ideologically. It's not quite a zero sum game, but just about every win in their column is a loss in ours.

I wish people would be less wishy washy and pick a side.
Click to expand...

I don't think acknowledgement and/or a sober assessment of past/current sins is mutually exclusive with thinking that America is generally a force for good in the world.

To give you an analogy, assume for a sec that the current strife between anesthesiologists and CRNAs is a zero sum game. I'm obviously on the side of anesthesiologists. It is factually true that anesthesiologists as a whole are more educated, better trained, and provide the highest and safest level of anesthesia care.

However, I think it's eminently foolish to ignore our prior and current "sins." It doesn't behoove us to pretend that the old vanguard didn't sell us up the 1:4 supervision river because greed. It doesn't behoove us to pretend that there are no straight assassin anesthesiologists who can't work an infusion pump and who haven't intubated in years. Why? Because obviously CRNAs are constantly trying to exploit our ideological and structural pressure points, so we better damn well know them and shore them up before it's too late. Same with America.



Tldr: Know thyself.
 
epidural man said:
I saw this when it came out. Good clip.

It's weird, however, that with all China's great scientists and talk of STEM, they haven't really invented anything since paper. Everything they do is from stollen technology. They really suck at being good.
Click to expand...

you should look into this more... its much more than just paper recently
 
people name a lot of reasons w hy we cant get stuff done in the USA. censoring content on tiktok, or nuclear power plants or whatever. which is fine. but when you talk about global competition. china doesnt care about what you cant do. they'll just surpass you.

meanwhile here on tiktok, you have all these dumb challenges about setting things on fire, drinking salt, and falling on your head unsupported, on top of the other stupid things
 
BLADEMDA said:
Let’s start off with a prediction that gold catches a bid finally towards $2,000.
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I'm thinking this is the year gold fever hits and 2500 minimum
 

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vector2 said:
I don't think acknowledgement and/or a sober assessment of past/current sins is mutually exclusive with thinking that America is generally a force for good in the world.

To give you an analogy, assume for a sec that the current strife between anesthesiologists and CRNAs is a zero sum game. I'm obviously on the side of anesthesiologists. It is factually true that anesthesiologists as a whole are more educated, better trained, and provide the highest and safest level of anesthesia care.

However, I think it's eminently foolish to ignore our prior and current "sins." It doesn't behoove us to pretend that the old vanguard didn't sell us up the 1:4 supervision river because greed. It doesn't behoove us to pretend that there are no straight assassin anesthesiologists who can't work an infusion pump and who haven't intubated in years. Why? Because obviously CRNAs are constantly trying to exploit our ideological and structural pressure points, so we better damn well know them and shore them up before it's too late. Same with America.



Tldr: Know thyself.
Click to expand...
What I'm griping about isn't coming from an anti "know thyself" perspective. I'm certainly in favor of not merely being tactically aware of our weaknesses, but actively doing better for the same of being better a people and a better nation.

To give another analogy I think you'll appreciate, it's the whataboutism that grinds my gears. If China or Russia or some other low-grade despot does [some awful thing], our response and opposition doesn't need to be endlessly prefaced with "ya know once upon a time we had slaves" or "ya know we buy cobalt from genocidal warlords" just to telegraph whatever it is the speaker wants to signal.

Example from this page of this thread:

nimbus said:
And there is some evidence that [China] promote discord within the US to gain tactical advantage.
Click to expand...

coffeebythelake said:
The United States and Britain meddle in others affairs for hundreds of years. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...

Whataboutism - excusing nefarious actions of adversaries, and casting doubt on our moral authority to defend ourselves or condemn bad behavior, by interjection of "ya know..."

Maybe I'm overreacting.
 
pgg said:
What I'm griping about isn't coming from an anti "know thyself" perspective. I'm certainly in favor of not merely being tactically aware of our weaknesses, but actively doing better for the same of being better a people and a better nation.

To give another analogy I think you'll appreciate, it's the whataboutism that grinds my gears. If China or Russia or some other low-grade despot does [some awful thing], our response and opposition doesn't need to be endlessly prefaced with "ya know once upon a time we had slaves" or "ya know we buy cobalt from genocidal warlords" just to telegraph whatever it is the speaker wants to signal.

Example from this page of this thread:





Whataboutism - excusing nefarious actions of adversaries, and casting doubt on our moral authority to defend ourselves or condemn bad behavior, by interjection of "ya know..."

Maybe I'm overreacting.
Click to expand...

I am not excusing but simply noting that such actions that some describe as being so deplorable is done by the "good guys". And how do you define the good guys?.

I thought you would have appreciated the meme picture because even America's allies are not patriotically brainwashed to think that America is the righteous country whose influence is exported around the world... Whether that be in the form of Hollywood or cruise missiles.

You are correct that countries like China and Russia are dictatorships that deprive their citizens of rights and freedoms that we enjoy. But my post earlier about interfering with others foreign affairs is literally what America is known for, have been doing for more than 200 years and continues to do today. Saying that China is interfering with the foreign affairs of other countries should not be the shining example of why the regime is bad.

Tl/dr yes you are overreacting
 
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coffeebythelake said:
I am not excusing but simply noting that such actions that some describe as being so deplorable is done by the "good guys". And how do you define the good guys?.

I thought you would have appreciated the meme picture because even America's allies are not patriotically brainwashed to think that America is the righteous country whose influence is exported around the world... Whether that be in the form of Hollywood or cruise missiles.

You are correct that countries like China and Russia are dictatorships that deprive their citizens of rights and freedoms that we enjoy. But my post earlier about interfering with others foreign affairs is literally what America is known for, have been doing for more than 200 years and continues to do today. Saying that China is interfering with the foreign affairs of other countries should not be the shining example of why the regime is bad.

Tl/dr yes you are overreacting
Click to expand...

also, we think other countries citizens just dream of being like us, having our freedom. i can tell you that is often not the case in china. while they may want freedom of speech and some freedom of religion, they dont want to give up many of the things they do have. also many Chinese believe they have enough freedom of speech. for normal people, you talk about whatever you want to your friends/families whatever.
 
anbuitachi said:
also, we think other countries citizens just dream of being like us, having our freedom. i can tell you that is often not the case in china. while they may want freedom of speech and some freedom of religion, they dont want to give up many of the things they do have. also many Chinese believe they have enough freedom of speech. for normal people, you talk about whatever you want to your friends/families whatever.
Click to expand...

Take two points off your social credit score.
 
Dr. Rude said:
Take two points off your social credit score.
Click to expand...

most people in china dont even care. social scores dramatically exaggerated by USA media.

China can mention how USA has credit score also, and how so many people have criminal histories (30% of our population!!!) that makes it difficult for them to get jobs or anything. easy for media to spin things in the way they want
 
anbuitachi said:
blasted thru all my covered calls =(
Click to expand...

Are covered calls too good to be true? | TEBI​

A covered call is an options strategy used to generate income in the form of options premiums. But how efficient is it? And is there a better alternative?
www.evidenceinvestor.com

Summary​

While covered-call strategies seem to promise a free lunch in the form of similar returns with lower volatility, investors who care about more than the volatility of returns will not find them to be efficient.

Even for those investors for whom the value of the limited downside protection gained exceeds the value of the foregone potential upside benefits, we believe there is a more efficient way of achieving the same objective. This can be accomplished by lowering the equity allocation and increasing the allocation to high quality bonds (providing downside protection) while also increasing the exposure to small and value stocks (increasing the expected return from the equity portion of the portfolio).
 
Dr. Rude said:

Are covered calls too good to be true? | TEBI​

A covered call is an options strategy used to generate income in the form of options premiums. But how efficient is it? And is there a better alternative?
www.evidenceinvestor.com

Summary​

While covered-call strategies seem to promise a free lunch in the form of similar returns with lower volatility, investors who care about more than the volatility of returns will not find them to be efficient.

Even for those investors for whom the value of the limited downside protection gained exceeds the value of the foregone potential upside benefits, we believe there is a more efficient way of achieving the same objective. This can be accomplished by lowering the equity allocation and increasing the allocation to high quality bonds (providing downside protection) while also increasing the exposure to small and value stocks (increasing the expected return from the equity portion of the portfolio).
Click to expand...
Buying beaten up quality stocks has hopefully limited downside while selling high premium calls blows away any bond yields. No strategy is perfect but it's kicking back at least 5000 a month to me over the past year.

In full disclosure I lost potential equity gain greater than premium gain on Travelers when it took off, a small amount overall, and now Travelers is kicking back every month on selling puts at the same 170 strike.

Again, no strategy is perfect but I prefer a more conservative high dividend (ie option premiums) strategy as I work much less and am more concerned about downside than FOMO huge upside. Everyone needs to figure what they think is best for themselves.
 
Dr. Rude said:

Are covered calls too good to be true? | TEBI​

A covered call is an options strategy used to generate income in the form of options premiums. But how efficient is it? And is there a better alternative?
www.evidenceinvestor.com

Summary​

While covered-call strategies seem to promise a free lunch in the form of similar returns with lower volatility, investors who care about more than the volatility of returns will not find them to be efficient.

Even for those investors for whom the value of the limited downside protection gained exceeds the value of the foregone potential upside benefits, we believe there is a more efficient way of achieving the same objective. This can be accomplished by lowering the equity allocation and increasing the allocation to high quality bonds (providing downside protection) while also increasing the exposure to small and value stocks (increasing the expected return from the equity portion of the portfolio).
Click to expand...
I think routinely buying options is a bad strategy. Once in a while is fine for a specific stock you where expect a move. This is generally agreed up, so it's unlikely both buying and selling are overall bad moves. Yes, there are transaction costs in spreads and commission, which both are very low compared to the past, particularly in large volume trading such as an AMZN.

Lastly, Buffett is a fan of selectively selling put options, though you specifically said call options. I like selling both to some degree.

medium.datadriveninvestor.com

How Warren Buffett Made $7.5 Million In Under 5 Minutes

Use this strategy to build your wealth in the stock market
medium.datadriveninvestor.com medium.datadriveninvestor.com
 
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