The Greater Depression is here.

[urge]

I'm scared. I honestly am. I wrote about the economy going down the crapper when Bear Sterns collapsed, but I'm still not prepared. I cannot find that thread but it is somewhere. The citizens are broke. The States are broke. The Federal Government is broke. We will borrow more money from poor foreign countries until we cannot borrow anymore. Then it will suddenly be Thunderdome(Mad Max). I'm sure people will kill each other for food. People might eat each other for all I know.

Latest news say that the States are asking for 1 trillion dollars to provide normal services such as education, welfare, and infrastructure. Makes me think twice whenever a non responsive bed ridden pt comes to the OR... Why waste millions of dollars in one person so they can have a crappy quality of life when you cannot provide essential services to the rest of the population? We are due for a rude awakening. We will have to re-examine our moral beliefs during this down turn. Is life really priceless? We clearly cannot provide everything for everyone. Should people starve while millions are spent in prisoners, for example? Should we kill the prisoners because people are starving? Same goes for the chronically ill, the traumas, prematures... Spending millions in a few so they can be eaten by a hungry mob does not seem to be the answer.

On a personal level, how are you preparing for what's coming?
I'm reading a lot. I have focused all my savings to pay down debt. I don't have any assets to protect, though.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Bertelman]

On a lighter note, it's a sad day when you have to qualify Thunderdome by hinting to Mad Max.


Kids these days.

 

[zippy2u]

Pops, put your lungs on a lil' sensibud; it's all good... ---Regards, ---Zippy

 

[Pooh & Annie]

I'm scared. I honestly am. I wrote about the economy going down the crapper when Bear Sterns collapsed, but I'm still not prepared. I cannot find that thread but it is somewhere. The citizens are broke. The States are broke. The Federal Government is broke. We will borrow more money from poor foreign countries until we cannot borrow anymore. Then it will suddenly be Thunderdome(Mad Max). I'm sure people will kill each other for food. People might eat each other for all I know.

Latest news say that the States are asking for 1 trillion dollars to provide normal services such as education, welfare, and infrastructure. Makes me think twice whenever a non responsive bed ridden pt comes to the OR... Why waste millions of dollars in one person so they can have a crappy quality of life when you cannot provide essential services to the rest of the population? We are due for a rude awakening. We will have to re-examine our moral beliefs during this down turn. Is life really priceless? We clearly cannot provide everything for everyone. Should people starve while millions are spent in prisoners, for example? Should we kill the prisoners because people are starving? Same goes for the chronically ill, the traumas, prematures... Spending millions in a few so they can be eaten by a hungry mob does not seem to be the answer.

On a personal level, how are you preparing for what's coming?
I'm reading a lot. I have focused all my savings to pay down debt. I don't have any assets to protect, though.

I don't remember anyone in Mad Max worrying about their debt.

 

[blackjack]

Pops, put your lungs on a lil' sensibud; it's all good... ---Regards, ---Zippy

Zips,
I've always liked your style.

 

[pgg]

On a personal level, how are you preparing for what's coming?
I'm reading a lot. I have focused all my savings to pay down debt. I don't have any assets to protect, though.

If you really think the collapse of civilization is coming, you should be maxing out your credit cards to buy guns, ammunition, a remote chunk of land suitable for growing food, 4wd vehicles, stockpiles of fuel and food, solar panels, and do-it-yourself books. You should be on the survivalist self-reliance ammo-reloader how-to-build-a-lean-to-shelter-with-your-teeth-beaver-style forums, not SDN.

Reading finance and doomsday books, listening to self-styled self-aggrandizing prophets, and paying off the Visa card are the sorts of things done by histrionic people who like conspiracy theories, but don't really think anything's going to happen.

I'm more worried about a nefarious genius in a skull-shaped island releasing genetically engineered bird flu, triggering a worldwide zombie apocolypse than I am concerned that a bunch of unfavorable 1s and 0s in some finance market computers might bring about a real-life sequel to Thunderdome.

I don't remember anyone in Mad Max worrying about their debt.

I'd sure pay my debts to Tina. Bust a deal, spin the wheel.

 

[urge]

If you really think the collapse of civilization is coming, you should be maxing out your credit cards to buy guns, ammunition, a remote chunk of land suitable for growing food, 4wd vehicles, stockpiles of fuel and food, solar panels, and do-it-yourself books. You should be on the survivalist self-reliance ammo-reloader how-to-build-a-lean-to-shelter-with-your-teeth-beaver-style forums, not SDN.

Reading finance and doomsday books, listening to self-styled self-aggrandizing prophets, and paying off the Visa card are the sorts of things done by histrionic people who like conspiracy theories, but don't really think anything's going to happen.

True. However, I think it will take at least 4 yrs for Thunderdome. I don't want to be carry debt until then. I ask my self if I'm doing the right thing every now and then. Time will tell.

 

[cfdavid]

Urge, I tend to agree with you that we're in for a rather rude awakening. I've said it before, we're in uncharted waters. We'll see if the U.S. can avoid a complete financial meltdown.

Guys, here's WHY we have big problems.
1) without foreigners lending the US money in the form of T-bills/bonds/notes, the U.S. simply could not operate. Personally, I think we're going to have to pay out more in terms of RATES on those debt instruments in order to keep foreign lenders interested/appeased. This is not advantageous, obviously, and could even be impossible to repay should those rates reach a certain threshold. We'll see.

2) the U.S. could "print" the money, but that would do a few things;
first, it would set the stage for hyperinflation; second, it would devalue the dollar even more, and to the extent that it could be challenged as reserve currency. If the latter were to happen, the ramifications will be huge.

For those of you that enjoy FACTS, check out the following link to the first part of an 8 series talk given by Marc Faber (not the cnbc dude). For anyone at all interested in finance, it's at the very least worth watching. Then make your own decision. But, I'd strongly recommend viewing all 8 in this series as Marc Faber makes certain statements regarding short term predictions that are not always made clear in that particular segment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsy2t_JBBsM

 

[coprolalia]

True. However, I think it will take at least 4 yrs for Thunderdome. I don't want to be carry debt until then. I ask my self if I'm doing the right thing every now and then. Time will tell.

What worries me most about the future of this country is the fact that there are people, high-functioning people, living in it who think like you do and seriously believe the b.s. they're spewing.

-copro

 

[pgg]

True. However, I think it will take at least 4 yrs for Thunderdome.

Bah. Wikipedia says global desertification isn't scheduled to happen quite that soon.

You're fixated on the 'dome. I'm beginning to think there's something you like about pig farms, or maybe it's the midget slaves in leather costumes ...

 

[aphistis]

Guys, none of that is going to happen. President Obama told me that we're going to fix this mess (you know, the one that started by people spending ridiculous amounts of money they didn't have on unnecessary crap) by having the government spend ridiculous amounts of money it doesn't have on unnecessary crap. I'm no economist, but that sure sounds like a foolproof solution to me.

 

[cfdavid]

Guys, none of that is going to happen. President Obama told me that we're going to fix this mess (you know, the one that started by people spending ridiculous amounts of money they didn't have on unnecessary crap) by having the government spend ridiculous amounts of money it doesn't have on unnecessary crap. I'm no economist, but that sure sounds like a foolproof solution to me.

At least you're willing to acknowledge that our financial situation is pretty dismal.

One more point that I feel some dudes may underestimate. When we generally think of the "economy", we usually look around us, in our own backyards so to speak. Nothing is falling to hell in a handbasket. It doesn't happen overnight.

Sure, we ALL see signs of a recession, but the bigger picture isn't really whether the dude running the towing service sees his revenues decline 15% this year and has to lay off a dude or two.

The BIG picture (not to minimalize the above) is our staggering national debt, and this coupled with lack of production in the U.S. as well as our government's solution(s) to our problems is what creates a boiler keg of a problem. One that we have not seen in our lifetimes.

So, will the world come to an end? Ofcourse not. But, we're going to see many changes in the U.S. that will have a negative impact on most people's lives.

 

[coprolalia]

Everything will be fine provided people don't panic. Panicking is always what makes a bad situation worse.

That's why I deeply rue and abhor people that want to incite panic, whether it is Global Warming panic, economic panic, end-of-the-world panic, "the U.S. is gonna break up" panic, or even "I think this patient is going to die" panic.

I've worked with doctors like that... always convinced that every patient is going to die at any second... and always a combination of surprised and relieved when they don't.

Friggin' drama queens. Hate 'em.

-copro

 

[cfdavid]

Everything will be fine provided people don't panic. Panicking is always what makes a bad situation worse.

That's why I deeply rue and abhor people that want to incite panic, whether it is Global Warming panic, economic panic, end-of-the-world panic, "the U.S. is gonna break up" panic, or even "I think this patient is going to die" panic.

I've worked with doctors like that... always convinced that every patient is going to die at any second... and always a combination of surprised and relieved when they don't.

Friggin' drama queens. Hate 'em.

-copro

I agree on this point. Panic is kind of useless (or useful, depending on which side of the fence one sits). I also abhor the use of fear by our own government in order to advance political agendas.

BUT, there's nothing wrong with analyzing the overwhelming information that we get bombarded with. Considering outcomes can be fun, but it doesn't mean one is certain a given outcome will happen.

Here's an even handed article on our national debt. Personally, I feel things will take a turn for the worse in terms of the possible scenarios this article lays out. Opinion, not panic.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...2009010202322.html?sid=ST2009010300318&s_pos=

 

[pgg]

The BIG picture (not to minimalize the above) is our staggering national debt, and this coupled with lack of production in the U.S. as well as our government's solution(s) to our problems is what creates a boiler keg of a problem. One that we have not seen in our lifetimes.

So, will the world come to an end? Ofcourse not. But, we're going to see many changes in the U.S. that will have a negative impact on most people's lives.

Probably. Current US levels of foreign resource consumption certainly aren't sustainable. That doesn't mean our way of life is going to abruptly (or even gradually) end though.

After what, a whole 2 months of $4 gas the whole country was on a serious energy independence, alternative fuel, hybrid car, driving-habit-changing, invest in solar panels for the home kind of kick.

We'll adapt when the reality of the world forces us to, and not a second sooner. It's the American way.

At worst we see another Depression (and I don't think even that remote possibility is worth more than a few passing thoughts), followed by a realignment of cultural values toward debt avoidance and self reliance ... and probably another period of great prosperity.

Hard times can have positive long term effects too. Funny how nobody dwells on that.

 

[coprolalia]

Panic is kind of useless (or useful, depending on which side of the fence one sits).

Panic is never useful, even if you are the one trying to incite it. You can never predict what will happen after panic sets in, even with your enemy.

-copro

 

[cfdavid]

Probably. Current US levels of foreign resource consumption certainly aren't sustainable. That doesn't mean our way of life is going to abruptly (or even gradually) end though.

After what, a whole 2 months of $4 gas the whole country was on a serious energy independence, alternative fuel, hybrid car, driving-habit-changing, invest in solar panels for the home kind of kick.

We'll adapt when the reality of the world forces us to, and not a second sooner. It's the American way.

At worst we see another Depression (and I don't think even that remote possibility is worth more than a few passing thoughts), followed by a realignment of cultural values toward debt avoidance and self reliance ... and probably another period of great prosperity.

Hard times can have positive long term effects too. Funny how nobody dwells on that.

Well stated. I agree with the bold. I just feel that the down turn will be more painful than you, perhaps. As well as the realignment can take a lot longer than we may think. Because, for a renewed period of prosperity to occur, so many of the serious fundamental flaws in our system/way of life will need to be remedied. This won't happen overnight either. Again, we'll see how this all plays out.

I especially agree with your take on adaptation. Humans are the most adaptable species on the planet, and our realities can change a LOT, without causing a marked change in the perception of our realities.

 

[SleepIsGood]

even the ultra wealthy are skimping...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090103/ap_on_re_us/meltdown_rainbow_room

 

[cfdavid]

Panic is never useful, even if you are the one trying to incite it. You can never predict what will happen after panic sets in, even with your enemy.

-copro

Well, I guess if panic led to chaos, then you'd be correct. I was more referring to an agenda of creating panic from, say, a financial perspective. For example, one could benefit from panic in the precious metals market by creating fear of fiat monetary collapse etc. etc.

 

[coprolalia]

For example, one could benefit from panic in the precious metals market by creating fear of fiat monetary collapse etc. etc.

Impossible to know what would happen (i.e., broader ramifications of the situation that led to the above scenario).

Predictions, with varying degrees of reliance and ultimate prognostic value (when analyzed post hoc), can be made when there is at least some semblance of order. Once a situation devolves into panic, you lose any and all semblance of order. More than anticipated or planned variables are folded into the mix, and it usually becomes impossible to discern cause and effect once the resulting chaos ensues.

Therefore, one can never predict, even with a modest degree of fidelity, what will happen once panic ensues. That's the point.

-copro

 

[aphistis]

Impossible to know what would happen (i.e., broader ramifications of the situation that led to the above scenario).

Predictions, with varying degrees of reliance and ultimate prognostic value (when analyzed post hoc), can be made when there is at least some semblance of order. Once a situation devolves into panic, you lose any and all semblance of order. More than anticipated or planned variables are folded into the mix, and it usually becomes impossible to discern cause and effect once the resulting chaos ensues.

Therefore, one can never predict, even with a modest degree of fidelity, what will happen once panic ensues. That's the point.

-copro

I take one exception. Once panic ensues, one can predict with at least modest confidence that ordered, patient, deliberative decision-making will be heavily compromised.

Weakening an enemy's decision-making process in this way can only work to the benefit of an attacker, particularly if other elements of surprise or strategic misdirection are also in place. Any number of military historians can tell you about the value of a well-stoked panic among one's prey.

 

[urge]

Funny thing is that for guys like copro, considering anything other than the status quo is inciting panic. Panic is bad, thus you are bad... blah, blah..... Hitler.... Nazis..... And the whole thread ends proving "whomever's law".

This guy keeps labeling stuff as if he was granted permission.

That doesn't cut the mustard here.

 

[pgg]

Funny thing is that for guys like copro, considering anything other than the status quo is inciting panic. Panic is bad, thus you are bad... blah, blah..... Hitler.... Nazis..... And the whole thread ends proving "whomever's law".

Quirk's Exception to Godwin's Rule states that intentional invocation of the Rule to end a thread must be ineffectual.

You fail again.

 

[urge]

Quirk's Exception to Godwin's Rule states that intentional invocation of the Rule to end a thread must be ineffectual.

You fail again.

I knew where this thread was headed. I wanted to skip it and move on. I didn't want to end the thread, thus it was you who failed.

 

[pgg]

I knew where this thread was headed. I wanted to skip it and move on. I didn't want to end the thread, thus it was you who failed.

That you "wanted to skip it and move on" is the essence of Quirk's Exception. Or are you trying to ensure this threads future by preempting a legitimate Godwin with a faux Quirk/Godwin of your own? Devious! Or are you saying that there's some super-triple-secret Urge's Corollary to Quirk's Exception to Godwin's Rule that states that ... oh, never mind.

I will respectfully ask, however, that you refrain from attempting to integrate Rule #34 into this thread.

 

[Bertelman]

 

[CambieMD]

I'm scared. I honestly am. I wrote about the economy going down the crapper when Bear Sterns collapsed, but I'm still not prepared. I cannot find that thread but it is somewhere. The citizens are broke. The States are broke. The Federal Government is broke. We will borrow more money from poor foreign countries until we cannot borrow anymore. Then it will suddenly be Thunderdome(Mad Max). I'm sure people will kill each other for food. People might eat each other for all I know.

Latest news say that the States are asking for 1 trillion dollars to provide normal services such as education, welfare, and infrastructure. Makes me think twice whenever a non responsive bed ridden pt comes to the OR... Why waste millions of dollars in one person so they can have a crappy quality of life when you cannot provide essential services to the rest of the population? We are due for a rude awakening. We will have to re-examine our moral beliefs during this down turn. Is life really priceless? We clearly cannot provide everything for everyone. Should people starve while millions are spent in prisoners, for example? Should we kill the prisoners because people are starving? Same goes for the chronically ill, the traumas, prematures... Spending millions in a few so they can be eaten by a hungry mob does not seem to be the answer.

On a personal level, how are you preparing for what's coming?
I'm reading a lot. I have focused all my savings to pay down debt. I don't have any assets to protect, though.

The financial meltdown that we are seeing is the result of buying now and paying later. When I was a child buying a home was a big deal. You had to put 20% down. That was the end of the story. Over the years that rule has been relaxed. You can now buy a home with no money down. There was a reason for forcing home buyers to out down 20%. Very very few home buyers were willing to walk away from their home and leave 20% behind. The prosperity that we thought existed in this country was not there. Everyone was living on credit. There was no one to actually pay the bill. People were buying homes that they could not afford and using loans based on the homes equity to finance their life style. The bill has come due and no one can pay it.
I am amazed how debt was re-packaged as an invesment product banks would purchase mortgage backed securities as investments. Now remember that many of these loans were subprime. This means that the owners of these mortgages are poor risks. The final holders of these mortgages were left with meaningless paper. AIG got in trouble because it insured many of these high risk investments.

What I have learned from this mess:

1.Home ownwership is not for everyone
2.Bankers are not nearly as smart as we thought that they were
3.A home is not always a good investment
4.avoid debt if at all possible
5.Pay the quarterly interest on your med school loans, that keeps your principal from ballooning. I did this.
6.Never buy more house than you can afford.
7.Loans must be paid back eventually
8.Many businesses are under capitalzed


Regarding what the op said.

Too many people are fed and clothed on the governments dime. We lock too many people up.the US has the largest prison population in the world.
This country needs better preventative care and substance abuse treatment.
End of life issues need to be addressed early on the course of a critically ill patients course. I am about to start a case that may be futile. The govenor of VA wants to let some noviolent offenders out 90 days early. That action will save the state millions.

The fat and waste must be removed from healthcare in this country.
I can keep going but I have to get back to studying for my oral boards.

Cambie

 

[InfraMan]

I take one exception. Once panic ensues, one can predict with at least modest confidence that ordered, patient, deliberative decision-making will be heavily compromised.

Weakening an enemy's decision-making process in this way can only work to the benefit of an attacker, particularly if other elements of surprise or strategic misdirection are also in place. Any number of military historians can tell you about the value of a well-stoked panic among one's prey.

Panic in an enemy who has nuclear or other WMDs is never good for anybody.

Copro's point still stands.

 

[aphistis]

Panic in an enemy who has nuclear or other WMDs is never good for anybody.

Copro's point still stands.

Sorry, no dice. The very act of laying out conditions under which copro's argument is valid implicitly concedes that other scenarios exist, outside those conditions, where it may not be.

Edit: I should clarify that I completely agree with you that WMD-owning entities should be encouraged to think rationally, and provoking them to push the button on a poorly considered impulse is bad for everyone. I'm speaking only to copro's original point.

 

[ProRealDoc]

I'm scared. I honestly am. I wrote about the economy going down the crapper when Bear Sterns collapsed, but I'm still not prepared. I cannot find that thread but it is somewhere. The citizens are broke. The States are broke. The Federal Government is broke. We will borrow more money from poor foreign countries until we cannot borrow anymore. Then it will suddenly be Thunderdome(Mad Max). I'm sure people will kill each other for food. People might eat each other for all I know.

Latest news say that the States are asking for 1 trillion dollars to provide normal services such as education, welfare, and infrastructure. Makes me think twice whenever a non responsive bed ridden pt comes to the OR... Why waste millions of dollars in one person so they can have a crappy quality of life when you cannot provide essential services to the rest of the population? We are due for a rude awakening. We will have to re-examine our moral beliefs during this down turn. Is life really priceless? We clearly cannot provide everything for everyone. Should people starve while millions are spent in prisoners, for example? Should we kill the prisoners because people are starving? Same goes for the chronically ill, the traumas, prematures... Spending millions in a few so they can be eaten by a hungry mob does not seem to be the answer.

On a personal level, how are you preparing for what's coming?
I'm reading a lot. I have focused all my savings to pay down debt. I don't have any assets to protect, though.

Maybe it is for the better. If the economy crashes we will all look elsewhere. Whites go back to europe, blacks back to africa, asians back to the east and hispanics back to latin america. Native americans will finally have their country back and it will make for a happy ending.

 

[coprolalia]

Sorry, no dice. The very act of laying out conditions under which copro's argument is valid implicitly concedes that other scenarios exist, outside those conditions, where it may not be.

My statements about "panic", as a collective human condition, are tautologous and stand on their own. Using examples to illustrate them might provide room to argue, but doesn't make the principle incorrect.

-copro

 

[coprolalia]

Maybe it is for the better. If the economy crashes we will all look elsewhere. Whites go back to europe, blacks back to africa, asians back to the east and hispanics back to latin america. Native americans will finally have their country back and it will make for a happy ending.

You're joking, right?

-copro

 

[cfdavid]

Maybe it is for the better. If the economy crashes we will all look elsewhere. Whites go back to europe, blacks back to africa, asians back to the east and hispanics back to latin america. Native americans will finally have their country back and it will make for a happy ending.

funny you should bring this up. in South Africa, whites have been told several times by memebers (some high level) of the ANC government, that if they don't like the crime, affirmative action, lack of security, then they can just "go back to europe". they've been told to "stop whining" by their government for voicing above concerns.


i can prove this if necessary, but don't really want to take the time right now.

 

[jetproppilot]

I hear you.

I'm scared too.

Some accounts down FORTY EIGHT PERCENT.....(gasp).......(choke)

My 2004 monsta truck will be with me a while.

I usually get a new vehicle every cuppla years but not anymore.

Have readjusted my stocks.

Made a buncha money on UST in 2008.....holding it even though they've been bought out by 1)

Shifted a buncha money to MO.

Sold AAPL at a loss. Have a premonition Steve is gonna buy a dirt pillow soon and the stocks gonna tank.

Holding GE.

Three biggest holdings:

1)MO
2)UST
3)GE

Looking at GRMN again (my best stock pick of all time...almost a four bagger) since its so cheap.

Got outta some mutual funds and put the benjamins in a money market account.

Holding off on anything extravagant......except for the Christophe Danhier diamond ring for my GF's Xmas.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... I'm a poker player.....my portfolio reflected that aggression for a long time.

Not now.

Now large on vice/dividend stocks.

Even when people are BROKE they'll always have cash for tobacco/alcohol.

 

[coprolalia]

Unfortunately, this is precisely the problem. A lot of people are doing what Jet is doing. It's the "clamp down" in a crisis. And, it's exactly the opposite of what is needed right now.

People need to spend and invest to get the economy going. Holding onto cash assets is only go to stall a recovery. I hope you rethink your strategy.

What I'm most worried about is Barrack Obama. Yes, I know the election is over. Yes, I know he won. Yes, I know I gotta deal with it over the next four years.

But, I gotta tell you all, I just don't think he's up to the task. I hope I'm wrong. But, he just doesn't have enough experience or track record dealing with really, really difficult times to reassure me that he knows what he's doing. I just hope that he doesn't get too radical. That's not what this country needs right now. We need to hold people's irons to the fire, though.

Now is the time to shrink government. People want something, they're going to have to go out and earn it. I look around and I see all the people who expect something for nothing and have been living high on the hog over the past 20 years... it's gotta change. This obesity epidemic, for example, has blossomed and mushroomed in this country - literally - over the past 20 years.

It's going to take us a while to pull outta this mess, but we can do it. We gotta get over this "quick fix" and "instant gratification" mentality we have in this country. And, most importantly, we gotta remember not to panic. After all, I still had a nice big, fat steak for dinner tonight (no lie).

-copro

 

[jetproppilot]

Unfortunately, this is precisely the problem. A lot of people are doing what Jet is doing. It's the "clamp down" in a crisis. And, it's exactly the opposite of what is needed right now.

People need to spend and invest to get the economy going. Holding onto cash assets is only go to stall a recovery. I hope you rethink your strategy.

What I'm most worried about is Barrack Obama. Yes, I know the election is over. Yes, I know he won. Yes, I know I gotta deal with it over the next four years.

But, I gotta tell you all, I just don't think he's up to the task. I hope I'm wrong. But, he just doesn't have enough experience or track record dealing with really, really difficult times to reassure me that he knows what he's doing. I just hope that he doesn't get too radical. That's not what this country needs right now. We need to hold people's irons to the fire, though.

Now is the time to shrink government. People want something, they're going to have to go out and earn it. I look around and I see all the people who expect something for nothing and have been living high on the hog over the past 20 years... it's gotta change. This obesity epidemic, for example, has blossomed and mushroomed in this country - literally - over the past 20 years.

It's going to take us a while to pull outta this mess, but we can do it. We gotta get over this "quick fix" and "instant gratification" mentality we have in this country. And, most importantly, we gotta remember not to panic. After all, I still had a nice big, fat steak for dinner tonight (no lie).

-copro

Disagree with you, my friend.

I'm quite proud of myself for investing in what people, no matter how bad life is, CAN'T GIVE UP.

Oh, and have you seen what the dividend is?

 

[coprolalia]

(You changed your post after I posted mine.)

Spend your money. That's all I'm saying. The economy is a stagnant pond right now. Spending is the way you stir it up and get things flowing.

-copro

 

[cfdavid]

(You changed your post after I posted mine.)

Spend your money. That's all I'm saying. The economy is a stagnant pond right now. Spending is the way you stir it up and get things flowing.

-copro

I understand this mentality. But, we, as a nation need to move away from "consumerism" and back to producing things. Production and R&D require high personal and governmental savings rates.

I heard Robert Reich (not too credible IMO, but not a bad guy to listen to at times) say that what's good right now for the individual (save and pay down debt) is not what's good for society (spend to revive the economy).

However, the reason I feel that he's flawed is, again, this consumerism BS. Something like 70% of our GNP is driven by consumer spending. This can not last, as we've seen. It's a short term fix.

This is also why a lot of dudes I respect are arguing against these huge stimulus plans. Right now, debt (both personal and governmental) is the problem. So, it's like throwing gasoline on the fire.

I'll admit, there's a lot of debate on this very issue. I can see both sides. I just think we need to get away from OVERconsuming to the point where we've had a negative personal savings rate over the past few years. This is changing, and it should. That's not to say there won't be pain along the way.

 

[cfdavid]

Disagree with you, my friend.

I'm quite proud of myself for investing in what people, no matter how bad life is, CAN'T GIVE UP.

Oh, and have you seen what the dividend is?

Jet, don't forget a little gold in your portfolio (several ETF's but I like GLD)

Also, you may have heard a lot of talk lately of a "Treasury bubble". I'm in TBT, which is short treasuries of duration greater than 20 years. Two forces are working for this. 1) investors, very recently, have become a little less risk averse and 2) with all time record low interest rates, they only have one way to go and that's up. Also, there's been a lot of talk that foreign creditors (traditional buyers of our debt) are becoming less enthusiastic about those securities, so the Treasury will likely need to raise rates on those issues to attract the same level of foreign investment.

Another play could be SRS, which is short 2x the inverse of commercial real estate. REITS are going to get hammered as holiday spending figures come in in full. There's also speculation that we could see 25% of retailers entering Chapter 11 (crazy, I know, but we'll see). So, malls and shopping centers will lose value and have to lower their rates as vacancies open up.

Just follow those guys a bit. You'll like what you see. But, don't wait too long. Also, gold is down 20 points (Monday), so it may be a good time to get in. I'm not one that thinks gold is going to go through the roof, but it should hold firm and even produce some solid gains.

cf

 

[coprolalia]

I just think we need to get away from OVERconsuming to the point where we've had a negative personal savings rate over the past few years.

People like Jet have money. They should spend it, not hoard it.

People who don't have money, like most Americans, shouldn't spend to the point that they are in debt and overextended on their credit.

That's how we've gotten into this mess.

-copro

 

[jetproppilot]

Jet, don't forget a little gold in your portfolio (several ETF's but I like GLD)

Also, you may have heard a lot of talk lately of a "Treasury bubble". I'm in TBT, which is short treasuries of duration greater than 20 years. Two forces are working for this. 1) investors, very recently, have become a little less risk averse and 2) with all time record low interest rates, they only have one way to go and that's up. Also, there's been a lot of talk that foreign creditors (traditional buyers of our debt) are becoming less enthusiastic about those securities, so the Treasury will likely need to raise rates on those issues to attract the same level of foreign investment.

Another play could be SRS, which is short 2x the inverse of commercial real estate. REITS are going to get hammered as holiday spending figures come in in full. There's also speculation that we could see 25% of retailers entering Chapter 11 (crazy, I know, but we'll see). So, malls and shopping centers will lose value and have to lower their rates as vacancies open up.

Just follow those guys a bit. You'll like what you see. But, don't wait too long. Also, gold is down 20 points (Monday), so it may be a good time to get in. I'm not one that thinks gold is going to go through the roof, but it should hold firm and even produce some solid gains.

cf

Wow thanks CF!!!

Feel like I should send you a Benjamin.

 

[cfdavid]

Wow thanks CF!!!

Feel like I should send you a Benjamin.

LOL NO problem brother.

When I'm tracking stocks or any ETF, or whatever. Just kinda watching them, I'll use marketwatch.com.

The nice thing is that when you get quotes, each time you visit the site, it recognizes your IP address, and shows (in the right hand side) all stocks you've had quoted and their current price and % change that current day. So, it's kind of nice to be able to track things without any major headaches. It just happens automatically.

***One thing on SRS, the REIT 2x short. It almost ALWAYS trades with the S&P activity. So, when the S&P is UP, SRS will almost always go down (this is over the past 6 months) since it's a short on REITS. SO, it's not really reflecting the REIT sector fundamentals at this point, which to me is a bit risky.

However, we're seeing a renewed interest in US equities right now. Many feel this will be short term, like only the first quarter. Who knows, but if/when sentiment on the S&P goes DOWN again, then SRS will be a good one to keep an eye on. Just look at it's 52 wk highs/lows. I'm pretty sure we're at a LOW right now. In summary, SRS trades "with" the the S&P average (aside from like 3 days LAST week). So, if the S&P shows momentum WITHOUT major publicized bad data on commercial real estate, SRS may not trade on it's own merit if you will. However, once these developers come under more of a squeeze (with their own credit crisis as well as increasing vacancies and increased pricing power of their tenents), then SRS could really take off. I'd watch it, and get familiar with it for a while and keep some cash around to perhaps pounce on it when the time is right.

I'm watching all this stuff too, so we'll keep in touch on the investments thread.

Here are my positions:
Longer term stuff I don't worry about based on fundamentals:
1) gold and silver
2) TBT
3) SRS (2x short REITS)
4) SDS (2x short S&P500)

3 and 4 are posing major risk to me at this point, but I have some strong convictions based on fundamentals that any gains in US equities will be short lived. We'll see. I have time, and my outlook is longer than this quarter. I just feel that earnings are going to be dismal as will be the REIT situation. As you know, things don't always do what they "should"......lol

****Also, I'm not huge into buy and hold for LONG periods of time. In these markets, it just seems like you can get super burned doing that, and really need to play short term "trends".

 

[dhb]

1) gold and silver

"On the other hand, secular stock bear markets usually coincide with secular gold bull markets. At the secular peak for gold, the Gold-Dow ratio is in the range of 1-2. As you can see on the chart, 1900 recorded a low of 1.7; 1929 recorded a low of two; 1980 recorded a low of about one. This means that when the gold bull market peaks, the price of gold will roughly equal the Dow Jones Index (DJI). Thus, we should expect that gold outperform the DJI in the coming 10-15 years about 10-20 times, in order to bring that Dow-Gold Ratio down to the range of 1-2."

"The Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows that we could be witnessing the end of an era for equities. Stocks had an 18 year bull market where buy and hold was the guaranteed way to make money. Unfortunately for the stock market bulls, asset classes go in and out of favor, and the next great asset class may very well be gold. The chart shows that it would be logical to expect the ratio to return to a value around 6. Perhaps a ratio of 6 would be gold 1200, Dow 7200."

If you look at historical P/E for the Dow which is about 7-8 7200 seems like an appropriate level. 1200 gold / 7200 Dow looks like a good balance.

 

[urge]

Spend your money. That's all I'm saying. The economy is a stagnant pond right now. Spending is the way you stir it up and get things flowing.

-copro

I disagree. Consumption makes the GDP higher and might keep people employed for a while, but it is not a permanent solution. You can imagine if Jet, for example, goes into a consumption binge, from his F you account clearly, at some point he would deplete his savings and be in the same whole as the other people.

Savings need to be invested in production, not consumption. Jet would help this economy better if he were to create a "kinoki" pad factory to sell it to the Chinese and Japanese. Assuming his business flourishes, the savings would increase with time, and more people would be employed in self suficient jobs.

 

[cfdavid]

On the other hand, secular stock bear markets usually coincide with secular gold bull markets. At the secular peak for gold, the Gold-Dow ratio is in the range of 1-2. As you can see on the chart, 1900 recorded a low of 1.7; 1929 recorded a low of two; 1980 recorded a low of about one. This means that when the gold bull market peaks, the price of gold will roughly equal the Dow Jones Index (DJI). Thus, we should expect that gold outperform the DJI in the coming 10-15 years about 10-20 times, in order to bring that Dow-Gold Ratio down to the range of 1-2.

I hear you man. I really do. The only issue is that gold is subject to manipulation by central banks. I think that's why it hasn't been "behaving" as it "should" lately given our huge deficits and monetary supply.

We'll see. Let's just say it's a very significant part of my portfolio. Nice chart by the way.

 

[dhb]

We'll see. Let's just say it's a very significant part of my portfolio. Nice chart by the way.

Me too. If anything it holds it's value which isn't too bad in this environment.

 

[Josh L.Ac.]

I have an ex-friend that was connected with investment folks on the East coast [West Point network] and he assured me that I can rest easy knowing that the very financial folks that helped precipitate the financial crisis (and got rich in the process) are repackaging the debt and selling it (and getting rich in the process) at the continued expense of the taxpayers.

If I knew what that meant, I might get upset.

 

[cfdavid]

Me too. If anything it holds it's value which isn't too bad in this environment.

I totally agree.

 

[Code Brown]

Just a random comment that will most definitely have replies (I'm interviewing and traveling, so not running from a debate..aka won't be replying in a timely manner)...

The market is exactly where it needs to be!!!!!

Damn, everyone is all up in arms about where our lovely DOW should be... it needs to be around the 7500-8000 mark... I ran a regression analysis and based on numbers from 1978 to 1995 (pre-dot com run up and subsequent real estate fleecing), the market as of 2008 should be in the 7500-8000 range. Basically, the market is where it should be. The vast majority of people lost value, not money in the market. This really needs to be pointed out because our lovely media still goes by the mantra of "if it bleeds it leads". If you invested $10,000 is 1988 and it was worth $30,000 in 1998 and now only $20,000 (in 2009), you are still ahead! And at at 7.2% annual return over a 20 year period to boot.

That said, the unemployment rate is not something to worry about either. Look at this site:

http://www.actionforex.com/fundamen...ssionary-unemployment-dynamics-2008090559006/

Ignore their analysis as they are just another fear monger, but look at the graphs because they show a normal swing that is way below the horrible 11% a few years back.

 

[coprolalia]

The problem is not what people should be worth, but what people actually owe.

-copro