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Yup. Heard a lot of people speak like that with dot come and 08 real estate 🤣
The Next Market Crash is Coming
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The big money players were likely all wiped out in 2008. When the Fed has to help out. They were not trying to help out the middle class. It’s all a scam. Billionaires cannot avoid to go from billionaires to zero. It’s a far bigger drop than middle class to go from 100-500k net worth to zero.
It took the Nasdaq 15 years to recover from tech bubble peak. That’s not what I exactly called bouncing back. That’s close to half a generation to fully bounce back.
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Got a little of that. Not much.
If we do enter an overhyped ai meltdown everything will fall including gold because of margin calls, so you'll be sitting very well. In those situations it's like a going out of business sale, everything must go, including gold.
I'm 70% gold, 30% t-bills and cash which are basically the same thing to me. T-bills are my money market account so cash doesn't just sit without any interest.
If we do get a going out of business sale and gold can get down close to that 3600 support I've mentioned before, then I'll plow more into. For me personally I don't see any reason to put money back into stocks for a while, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong, won't cry as ai and gold have been very good to me last few years.
Physical and paper.
No miners. Missed that and won't chase.
I thinks it's more a lack of conviction haha,
lack of conviction in our government and our money.
10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023 as global bond sell-off continues
Treasury yields continued to climb on Wednesday as inflation fears stoked a global rise in borrowing costs.
Mark McCarron, chief investment officer with Philadelphia-based Wescott Financial Advisory Group, has been favoring bonds with a duration of three to five years or less. “Bond yields are likely to continue rising until there is inflation and deficit control,” he said. “We’re just trying to stay high quality, short-duration and protected.”
In the last financial crisis I think gold dropped about 20% initially before going on a tear? Maybe there'll be a buying opportunity for market timers when the AI correction happens.
Just curious, what % of your gold is physical gold vs ETF gold?
Gold is a minority of my assets but all of what I have is physical. I continuously and very gradually add to it, regardless of spot price. That has drawbacks - transaction costs and storage risks, obviously. But if it's a hedge against market crashes or monetary policy shenanigans, I am skeptical of "gold" held as an ETF.
We've also seen spot price, and actual price to take delivery, really diverge a lot over the last 20 years. (Especially for silver, though I quit buying that many years ago.)
This phenomenon doesn't inspire a whole lot of faith in the paper PM market. It also makes me wonder if a whole lot of paper gold gets dumped for margin calls, whether or not the spread between spot price and actual take-delivery price will widen. I can easily imagine a scenario in which ETF gold price plummet as it's sold, without a corresponding drop in physical gold prices.
I share those sentiments, definitely the fear of paper gold. I hold about a 60/40 ratio, physical/paper. Storage issues, theft etc is why it's not 100%. Balance out the risks a little bit.
Also ups continually left the gold sitting on top of the mail box out on the street no matter how many times the guy assured me that will never happen again and has to be signed for. I was typically buying at least 20oz at a time. Even though it was a little under 2000 at the time, do the math on how much stress induced BP elevation occurred pulling into my driveway to see that haha.
one reason I like physical gold is that it can be fun to collect. If I had a particularly memorable night of call I used to go to the coin dealer in the morning and buy a bullion coin to commemorate it. Some of the choices look pretty cool, like the Australian nugget, which has different kangaroos depending on the amount and year. The Philharmonic looks great, as does the maple leaf. I then would deposit them in a safety deposit box at a nearby bank. I’m not learned enough to wax rhapsodic on whether or not this is a good long term investment strategy, but it’s definitely more fun than moving numbers to a brokerage account. Having UPS leave it on your porch seems a little anxiety inducing, though.
I know that sensation -
I flew into Phoenix once with an oversized Pelican case full of NFA registered guns and suppressors and went straight to the special baggage claim to get them, only to receive blank stares. Something like an hour later we found the case pulled off the main baggage carousel and sitting off to the side, about 20' from the ground transportation pickup curb.
Then they did it AGAIN a couple years later when I was flying in from California with a less expensive and more replaceable collection .... but that time I knew to check the regular baggage claim first.
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What do you make of the divergence between spot price and the actual price to buy bullion?
I don't mean simply the usual seller's premium of a few percent.
For example silver's spot price right now is $67/oz but a generic 10oz APMEX bar sold BY Apmex is $770 (15% premium).
Is this just retail fleecing? These days you can buy silver closer to spot, but one reason I quit buying it years and years ago was because the spot price : actual physical price ratio got so far out of whack.
There's something about holding gold in your hands that feels nice. It's different than holding an equally or more valuable piece of jewelry, or watch, or vial of Novo7 when it was stupid expensive. I understand why humans have been fascinated by it for 1000s of years.
I think you nailed the sentiment. Smaug says it better than I can. While I could nerd out on the collector’s aspect of cool looking bullion coins like the Mexican Libertad or the New Zealand Gold Kiwi, the heft and clink of them is truly satisfying.
You are right, the difference between spot gold price and retail coins range quite a bit. I have made most of my purchases from mom and pop retailers who are local business and have other roles in my community, so I don’t mind a little mark up. I agree, a lot of online retailers seem to be an astounding ripoff. When you look at it that way, you can certainly get more value for your money in other ways.
I personally don’t get a lot of satisfaction out of seeing a balance rise as some do. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate having it, but past a certain point it becomes less meaningful to me. Bullion coins retain the fun factor for me, though. I tend to “invest” more in productive land, and the means for self sufficiency these days, for the very reason that I can immediately enjoy or appreciate my “investments” rather than them being a number.
Between 2025 and early this year, France sold all its gold stored in New York Fed Reserve and bought back simultaneously in Europe. Store the gold in Paris.
The buyers are bullion banks such as JPMorgan. JPM will not just hold the gold; it sells the gold as gold ETF, paper gold.
Last time NY Fed reserve gold audit was in 2012. But only USA-owned was audited, which accounts for 5% total storage. What about the other 95%?
BTW, In 1971, France sent a naval vessel to NY harbor to retrieve its gold. In a couple of days, Bretton Woods agreement collapsed.
Does Macron know something?
We as a nation are 40 trillion dollars in debt and rising. The Gold in the vault is irrelevant to our economy and Bond prices. As our debt rises buyers of our bonds are demanding higher interest on those bonds. In addition, the MAG 7 are borrowing trillions to fund their data center build-outs causing bond yields to rise for both corporate and USA govt. debt.
That said on a personal level the research shows owing 5-10% of your portfolio in Gold is an excellent diversifier with minimal correlation to the stock market.
That said on a personal level the research shows owing 5-10% of your portfolio in Gold is an excellent diversifier with minimal correlation to the stock market.
Gold vs S&P 500 Correlation At A Glance
This table shows the typical correlation between gold and the S&P 500 under different market conditions, illustrating gold's value as a diversifying asset.
| Market Condition | Typical Correlation Coefficient | What This Means for Investors |
|---|---|---|
| Normal / Bull Market | Low Positive (e.g., 0 to +0.2) | Gold and stocks might move slightly in the same direction, but their relationship is weak. They're largely on their own paths. |
| Market Stress / Bear Market | Negative (e.g., -0.2 to -0.5) | This is where gold earns its keep. It often rises as stocks fall, providing a valuable cushion that preserves wealth during downturns. |
| High Inflation | Positive | Both gold and equities can perform well, though gold is traditionally seen as the more direct and reliable inflation hedge. |
The Historical Correlation Between Gold and the Stock Market: An Investor's Guide
Explore the historical correlation between gold and stock market and how it can hedge risk, stabilize returns, and diversify your portfolio.
www.commonsllc.com
You know it's an election year when the national debt gets dragged out of the closet and trotted around. Y'all fall for it every single time.
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yeah trump really fixed it with tariffs and corporate tax cuts
30T in 2022, 40T in 2026, Will be 50 T in 2029-2030. Is there any place for BTC in an allocation? I dont think its going to go away per the lindy effect.
Tariffs work. In terms of revenue collection. Except the USA is just not ready for shared sacrifices.
People talk a good game about being holistic. Just remember the average Joe is extremely selfish when he/she realizes they gotta pay for it.
I’m fine paying 5% or whatever extra in taxes if that’s what it takes. The average Joe needs to do it also. We can even give the average Joe a break and tell them to pay 2% and they still won’t do it. Even cap what they pay and they will won’t agree.
Americans are selfish. People are selfish in nature.
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Tariffs work if your goal is to decrease competition, decrease quality, raise prices, and worsen economic efficiency. If the goal is to raise tax revenue, which I'm all for since Trump is spending like a drunken sailor and burying us in debt, then why the massive tax cuts? But it's not like Trump has any clue what he's doing. Everyone knows we are not in his agenda; it's all about lining his pockets.
No one is gonna to cut spending on defense. Not Democrats. Not republicans.
No one is really serious about healthcare spending cuts either.
It’s this passive agressive nature the politicians have.
I also forgot, another reason I have a balance between paper and physical is the government hits you harder on physical gold tax putting it under some bullcrap category, "collectibles."
Does anyone know of legal ways physical gold can be spent to avoid the collectibles tax? Or tax completely?
Does anyone know of legal ways physical gold can be spent to avoid the collectibles tax? Or tax completely?
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Carry it in your pocket to a foreign country and sell it there?
where do you get the 2.625% credit card cash back? the Costco Citi card gives 2%. Other cards I am concerned that the purchase is regarded as cash equivalent so no cash back.
Bank of America .
If you have their premier tier, they give you 75% boost to your cash back Visa cards. Their unlimited cash back for example is 1.5%. With the boost, you get 2.625%.
They changed their tiers though unfortunately so you need $1 million in assets with them (can combine with Merrill edge). I am still grandfathered in on the old tier for another year so I'll ride it out.
If you have between 100k and under 1 million, the boost is 50% so you'll still get 2.25% back.
No issues with getting the cash back when buying gold either.
And as spending keeps going up they then say, Vote for me I'll cut government revenue (taxes) and bury us further in debt!!!
If federal govt went back to 2019 spending amounts, we’d have a surplus. Problem is not revenue (taxes) the problem is spending.
Also, many suggest the US is close to the peak of the Laffer Curve. At some point you don’t generate more tax revenue with a higher tax rate as you reduce economic growth and incentive to generated revenue. Example of this effect is most of the European countries.
Also, many suggest the US is close to the peak of the Laffer Curve. At some point you don’t generate more tax revenue with a higher tax rate as you reduce economic growth and incentive to generated revenue. Example of this effect is most of the European countries.
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That's not legitimate because the more you borrow and spend the more tax revenue you'll generate. So if you drastically cut spending to 2019 levels you won't generate the same tax revenue as today.
Laffer curve is mostly self serving bull****. To say our debt situation is better off because of Trump tax cuts is basically nonsense. It's ballooning the deficit and debt.
But isn't there a sweet spot, not too much or too little taxation?
Government spending is not equal to private spending. Taking taxes from corporations and private individuals has a net negative, maybe close to even in short term, multiplier economically. Leaving that money with private individuals or corporations, especially when reinvested into CapEx or OpEx, has a net positive effect almost always on economic growth. This is an economic truth.
California spending $10-20 billion on non existent high speed rail has paid some wages helping economically short term, but long term will have negative effect as they have removed money that could’ve been allocated to productive sources (business growth, etc).
But...but...I have been assured that there is no fraud.
Most of the PPE loans were fraud. It should be a lot more than 38B
We're so far at the other end of the Lafer curve we'd get tax cuts and be able to work less, not more. How many Americans you know wouldn't work less if they could??
Put them all in prison ffs
Gold looks a lot like 08 and the market looks a lot like 00. Now wouldn't that be some kind of double wallop.
Does it mean it's too late for markets to change course? Not at all, could mean absolutely nothing. But what it does mean is regardless if this bounce keeps going I'm remaining a 0/75/25 portfolio, stocks/gold/bonds and cash.
Does it mean it's too late for markets to change course? Not at all, could mean absolutely nothing. But what it does mean is regardless if this bounce keeps going I'm remaining a 0/75/25 portfolio, stocks/gold/bonds and cash.
